2024 U.S. Elections

[Winrar]

Nah, Texas ain't flipping on presidential level.

Curious to see why you don't think it's happening? Do you think it's basically reverse Minnesota?

I don't think it flips this cycle in particular unless Trump is convicted of felony before Election day (another discussion for another time), but I believe the ingredients are there for a future flip.

This is more of a nationwide phenomenon, same places that are seeing population growth are also seeing the biggest trends to the left, particularly in traditionally Republican suburbs and exurbs, which also traditionally gave Republicans such a big boost in elections. On the other hand, same places that are trending right are losing population, mainly rural areas, and don't affect the electoral margins as much. 2020's losses for GOP in Texas was blunted by the radical shift to the right in RGV, but the latter is less likely to be repeated than the former.

 

[Winrar]

Having a margin of +5 or more is a significant number in a state like Texas. Moreover, the quality of the candidates plays a crucial role. It's possible that a Republican candidate with fewer controversies could secure an even larger victory in the next election cycle(s).

In short, TX is still very far away from becoming anything close to a swing state.

Counterpoint: California swung 15 points to the left from 2004 to 08 (granted a terrible year for Rs overall). Further 7 points left from 2012 to 16.

Hell, Texas itself shifted 7 points to the left from 2012 to 16.

Is it a uniquely Trump thing? Partly so at least. But underlying numbers in what areas are trending to the left in general aren't looking good for Republicans in the state (or elsewhere for that matter), for reasons I've stated above.

These political shifts usually happen quicker than most people realize, when such catalysts exist.

 

[ManUtd1999]

Texas isn't as far away from flipping as you think it might be.

In 2020, Texas was Trump+5.6. 4 years prior to that, Georgia was Trump+5.3 flipping in the next election

Populous suburbs around the Texas triangle (e.g. Collin, Williamson, Fort Bend counties) are trending rapidly Democratic and rapidly gaining population. There's not enough votes elsewhere in the state going the opposite direction.

I think Trump wins the state by 1 point. If he gets a felony conviction by November, I'm fairly certain it flips.

To add to your point: Texas shifted significantly between 2016 and 2020, just like GA and AZ, and it is indeed moving towards the Democrats. I believe that TX will flip one day; the question is when. If Trump is convicted and Biden's prospects (and coverage in the media) improves, he has a shot at flipping it or bringing it within 1-3 points. Otherwise, I do not believe that it would flip this time.

We need to see more polls from Texas before making better predictions. Notice, though, that the average polling in 2020 showed Biden in a better position than he was. Therefore, if I take that into account and the changes that Texas is going through, a mid single digit loss for Biden is possible.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/texas/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

(I hope that we will have more and better polls from TX this cycle).

 

[Winrar]

To add to your point: Texas shifted significantly between 2016 and 2020, just like GA and AZ, and it is indeed moving towards the Democrats. I believe that TX will flip one day; the question is when. If Trump is convicted and Biden's prospects (and coverage in the media) improves, he has a shot at flipping it or bringing it within 1-3 points. Otherwise, I do not believe that it would flip this time.

We need to see more polls from Texas before making better predictions. Notice, though, that the average polling in 2020 showed Biden in a better position than he was. Therefore, if I take that into account and the changes that Texas is going through, a mid single digit loss for Biden is possible.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/texas/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

(I hope that we will have more and better polls from TX this cycle).

Incumbents generally overperform polling - as seen in 2020 with Trump and 2012 with Obama. If Biden is even with Trump in a swing state in a reputable poll, it's probably good news for him.

10 months is more than enough time for polls to turn in his favor, and it will as Biden spends his warchest $$ against him.

 

[Morty_]

Curious to see why you don't think it's happening? Do you think it's basically reverse Minnesota?

I don't think it flips this cycle in particular unless Trump is convicted of felony before Election day (another discussion for another time), but I believe the ingredients are there for a future flip.

This is more of a nationwide phenomenon, same places that are seeing population growth are also seeing the biggest trends to the left, particularly in traditionally Republican suburbs and exurbs, which also traditionally gave Republicans such a big boost in elections. On the other hand, same places that are trending right are losing population, mainly rural areas, and don't affect the electoral margins as much. 2020's losses for GOP in Texas was blunted by the radical shift to the right in RGV, but the latter is less likely to be repeated than the former.

Didn't mean it can't t flip in the future, just that it's not happening in 2024, as it would take a massive blue wave, 2020 was a blue wave in itself, and yet wasn't enough.

So far, it looks like 2024 will be at least as close as 2020.

 

[Morty_]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-matt-rosendale-eyeing-launch-montana-senate/

Don't think it matters much if its him or Sheehy, but wouldn't hurt if he crashed Sheehy's party, at least.

 

[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

So Tim Scott endorses Trump.

 

[ManUtd1999]

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On brand.

So Tim Scott endorses Trump.

On brand, too.

 

[nimic]

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[Sweet Square]

Mr Biden please stop pressing the socialism button

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[Morty_]

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[VorZakone]

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[WPMUFC]

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The guy didn't even out-poll some random local nutter. I'd be embarrassed to promote this in the Haley camp, let alone report it as news.

 

[Beans]

Mr Biden please stop pressing the socialism button

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In a world where the current Democratic Party has been moving right for decades, to win the swing voters.

The right has done a good job of getting people to associate the most left politicians with the party as a whole. Which is very pro-Wall Street, pro-lobby, and on board for most of the traditional republican agenda, before MAGA.

 

[WI_Red]

In a world where the current Democratic Party has been moving right for decades, to win the swing voters.

The right has done a good job of getting people to associate the most left politicians with the party as a whole. Which is very pro-Wall Street, pro-lobby, and on board for most of the traditional republican agenda, before MAGA.

The current Democratic Party is more right than decades ago? On what issues?

Not on healthcare
Not on drug legalization
Not on abortion
Not on environmental issues

Just take a look at the party platform in 96 (almost 3 decades ago) and find a major area of policy with a significant shift right.

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/1996-democratic-party-platform#:~:text=Health care.,, high-quality health care.

 

[Sweet Square]

The right has done a good job of getting people to associate the most left politicians with the party as a whole. Which is very pro-Wall Street, pro-lobby, and on board for most of the traditional republican agenda, before MAGA.

I guess it goes all the way back to the red scare. Although tbh the most left politicians are locked in with the most right sections of the party. There’s nothing Biden could do that wouldn’t make AOC or Bernie vote and campaign for him.

Still these types of polls just tell me most people polled have no real idea what these terms mean. It just vibes. Bad things are happening now so it must be because Biden is too progressive. If Trump wins in the next election and things continue to get worse(While following a similar policy set to Biden)then people will say it’s because Trump is too conservative.

The average American voter sees themselves as moderate/centre right but also sees the outcome of moderate/centre right policies as socialism or fascism depending on who the president currently is. Very strange times.

The current Democratic Party is more right than decades ago? On what issues?

Not on healthcare
Not on drug legalization
Not on abortion
Not on environmental issues

Just take a look at the party platform in 96 (almost 3 decades ago) and find a major area of policy with a significant shift right.

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/1996-democratic-party-platform#:~:text=Health care.,, high-quality health care.

 

[VorZakone]

Please, watch the clip. The shamelessness is overwhelming.

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[Adisa]

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I hate politicians with a passion.

 

[WI_Red]

I guess it goes all the way back to the red scare. Although tbh the most left politicians are locked in with the most right sections of the party. There’s nothing Biden could do that wouldn’t make AOC or Bernie vote and campaign for him.

Still these types of polls just tell me most people polled have no real idea what these terms mean. It just vibes. Bad things are happening now so it must be because Biden is too progressive. If Trump wins in the next election and things continue to get worse(While following a similar policy set to Biden)then people will say it’s because Trump is too conservative.

The average American voter sees themselves as moderate/centre right but also sees the outcome of moderate/centre right policies as socialism or fascism depending on who the president currently is. Very strange times.

Sure, those were great if they applied to you, which was everyone aside from the Japanese (internment camps), Mexicans (Mexican Repatriation), Jews fleeing from Nazi Germany, African AMericans (red line laws, segregation, no voting rights, etc. etc.), and so on and such.

However, the statement was that the party had been shifting right over the past decades, and I would argue the opposite is true if the take the Clinton years as a starting point.

 

[iKnowNothing]

We’re white liberals..

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if this catches on, then Dems are going to face a tough 2024.

 

[Sweet Square]

Sure, those were great if they applied to you, which was everyone aside from the Japanese (internment camps), Mexicans (Mexican Repatriation), Jews fleeing from Nazi Germany, African AMericans (red line laws, segregation, no voting rights, etc. etc.), and so on and such.

Given the current pro genocide policy of the United States government. It’s strange to see someone putting forward these criticisms of FDR as a way of defending Joe Biden.

We really do live in hell.

 

[Raoul]

We’re white liberals..

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if this catches on, then Dems are going to face a tough 2024.

It likely won't because its not actually a thing. Despite the latest Tik Tok trend, people still largely vote on economics, so if the economy is in good shape (no recession, inflation continues down, unemployment low, stock market not tanking) then that more than anything else will inform how well Biden does in Nov.

 

[Raoul]

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[WI_Red]

Given the current pro genocide policy of the United States government. It’s genuinely strange to see someone putting forward these criticisms of FDR as a way of defending Joe Biden.

We really do live in hell.

Gazza is a catastrophe, and the US response has been outrageous, but the two are not remotely similar in terms of importance to the American electorate. One is an abominable foreign policy decision, but not one which would likely rank in the top 5 (10? 20?) worst foreign policy decisions taken by the US (supporting genocide and mass murder is kinda our thing), while the other is domestic policy. The enforced deportation/disenfranchisement/etc. of US citizens as a governmental policy will always be more poignant to citizens of that country as it directly affects them.

I brought up the above not to defend Biden but to address the original topic which was the claim that the policy positions of the Democratic party have been moving right. As a whole the simply have not done so.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

I came here to ask whether Americans on the Caf actually thing that the Israel-Hamas clusterfeck can actually have that much of an effect on the elections... seems like the answer is no, like I thought.

Is Trump leading current polls?

 

[maniak]

I came here to ask whether Americans on the Caf actually thing that the Israel-Hamas clusterfeck can actually have that much of an effect on the elections... seems like the answer is no, like I thought.

Is Trump leading current polls?

Probably not in the sense most americans really care about palestinians, but in the sense Joe looks weak and unable to influence much of what israel is doing. To be clear, I think he's fine with it, so it's not weakness, but I see that perception a lot out there in the social media world.

 

[WI_Red]

I came here to ask whether Americans on the Caf actually thing that the Israel-Hamas clusterfeck can actually have that much of an effect on the elections... seems like the answer is no, like I thought.

Is Trump leading current polls?

We are a pretty inward-looking country when it comes to the majority of the electorate. Depending on the poll you chose then yeah, Trump is showing a lead, but I won't really get worried till the middle of next year.

 

[Morty_]

Ron Desantis drops out of the race, leaving it to be only Haley vs Trump, not that it will matter much either way.

 

[Avatar]

I don't know what the Democrats are doing. This election is easily Trump's to lose, unless he gets convicted and sent to prison or something!

Biden never wins anything "actively" . He only wins passively; because of candidates yielding to Obama/the party's pressure and dropping out, or for being Not Trump.
It won't work this year, however. At best it's 50/50 , a risk that is totally unacceptable.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Ron Desantis drops out of the race, leaving it to be only Haley vs Trump, not that it will matter much either way.

Gotta to be one of the worst campaigns ever, when you consider how much he was hyped up and how quickly it fizzled out. Tiny D just hasn’t got it.

 

[calodo2003]

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[VorZakone]

DeSantis out, wow.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

Probably not in the sense most americans really care about palestinians, but in the sense Joe looks weak and unable to influence much of what israel is doing. To be clear, I think he's fine with it, so it's not weakness, but I see that perception a lot out there in the social media world.

We are a pretty inward-looking country when it comes to the majority of the electorate. Depending on the poll you chose then yeah, Trump is showing a lead, but I won't really get worried till the middle of next year.

cheers.

it blows my mind that Trump can once more become POTUS,
But I'd expect myself by now to not be surprised by anything that happens around the world.

I'm waiting for climate catastrophes / mean and scary AI robots to salvage us all into oblivion.

 

[Morty_]

Gotta to be one of the worst campaigns ever, when you consider how much he was hyped up and how quickly it fizzled out. Tiny D just hasn’t got it.

He was never going to have it though, GOP base worships Trump, it was only ever going to end one way.

Also, people in Florida are, well, kinda weird, its about the only state that has "anti-woke" at the top of the priority list when it comes to voting, few other states really cares.

 

[VorZakone]

Quoting Churchill.

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[utdalltheway]

Little Ron
His chiropractor told him quit or he’d do irreparable damage by wearing those ridiculous high heels.

 

[Mike Smalling]

I guess this also means curtains for Haley? She will now lose New Hampshire easily, whereas she might have won it in a three-way race.

 

[MrMarcello]

I know Donald destroyed Ron's height a few times but I don't recall seeing this post. This was Ron on a Real Time with Bill Maher segment last fall.

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[Cal?]

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