Sinema should just drop out, to spare herself the embarassment, she isn't winning this one.
Maybe the White House could offer her an out, ambassador or whatever, so she can save face, not that i care.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Sinema should just drop out, to spare herself the embarassment, she isn't winning this one.
Maybe the White House could offer her an out, ambassador or whatever, so she can save face, not that i care.
It's wild how the ambassador position is used in the US to basically reward political and financial support. I hope the reason is that the professional diplomatic core does all the actual work, but it still seems iffy. They have a lot of signaling power.
Is it like that in other countries?
Is it like that in other countries?
I know we have some Swifty fans on the Caf. My respect and admiration for this woman has just skyrocketed. Hats off.
My wife is American, and she has just sorted out her mail in vote from abroad.
Is all about political favours. I assume is not the case for the most important countries like Russia, China, Germany, UK, India, etc...
Which state?
They are getting so close…
Most ambassadors are retirement rewards or exiles.
But with US it's never the case. Their embassy is one of the most high profile building all over the world.
Even in friendly countries there will be lots of decisions to make.
So now Trump is not only leading Biden, he is leading him by double digits.
Media seriously expect us to believe this nonsense?
Media seriously expect us to believe this nonsense?
It's a poll. They show what they show. The quoted Washington Post article puts it into context and explains that it's an outlier. What exactly are "the media" doing wrong here?
Be better at polling?
The purpose of polls is to be somewhat accurate, this one isn't even close to reality.
You are aware that the media don't do the polls themselves, right?
Also, the value of polls, to the extent there is any, is the combined picture across them, which this one adds to.
Sure, so insert whoever does it, and ask them to do better then.
Again, the only use polls have is when you put them alongside each other (as WaPo have done here) and look at the combined average and picture that emerges. When you do that, they're usually pretty accurate. One poll can be an outlier, that's the name of the game, which is why it's important to contextualise, exactly like The Post have done there.
State polls and national polls should correlate more than they do now though, maybe they will later.
There was a NH poll last week (you gov I think) that had Biden up by 12 points overall & 13 points with indies iirc.
Gonna happen.
Yeah, Biden isn't winning NH by that much either.
Of course outliers happens, but state polls and national polls shows very different things so far though, lets say Trump wins the popular vote like the polling average shows, that translates to a rather easy EC win for him.
However, the most recent polls in Pennsylvania and Michigan shows him trailing Biden.
We will probably see more of a correlation between the two next year, i'm hoping.
Are mobile numbers called in these polls? For a while they were not.
If it is still landlines, I would gather that the bias would be very much in favor of the right side of the aisle.
Do people still have landlines? In Norway it is almost completely wiped out, only remaining with some few old people.
Maybe not traditional landlines but in the US, digital phone service is often packaged with cable tv plans (tv, internet, phone). This is different from mobile.
+ some areas have no coverage anyway!
The vaping, boob grabbing incident seems to have her pondering whether she will run again.
There's some, like y'all skewed heavily to the olds in rural areas, thus conservative.
And what @Raoul said.
Of course she got a grandsonIsn't she like 37 ish?
36.
36, son was 17. No clue how old the DIL was.Of course she got a grandson
The what?
Daughter in law, but don't think is applicable yet. Don't think they've tied the knot.
According to this poll Trump is leading Biden 55-36 in the 18-39 age group, but losing to Biden 47-48 among those over 65 . This tells me it's almost certainly a very shit poll.
Cross tabs available on the second link here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2023/09/24/sept-15-20-2023-washington-post-abc-news-poll/
You need to click on "registered voters" to see the relevant question.
I don't think he will win by 10, but this is now one of a long series of polls from proper pollsters that has Trump tied or up.
1. Given that there's somewhat of a trend, I think it reflects something real (a close race with a slight advantage for Trump right now).
2. This didn't happen in 2020.
When Colorado send us their members of Congress, they're not sending their best. They're sending vapers and gropers - and some are fine people.