2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Then again, if Clarke is the republican candidate, dems probably don't even have to spend any real money to hold the seat in Wisconsin.
 
calodo2003 said:
Concur.

@WI_Red what say you?
Click to expand...
Hmm…. Black dude vs. liberal lesbian. Most MAGAites might just spontaneously combust.

Seriously though, he is wildly popular among the Trump base, so I don’t see them having a problem voting for him. Baldwin is popular though, and WI is a blue leaning purple stage now.
 
Another overperformance for dems in special elections, this time in New Hampshire.
 
Revan said:
The polls are genuinely worrying. It is not one or two, but most polls are favoring GOP/Trump.

And if Manchin runs as third-party (that Romney is trying to convince him not to do after initially toying with the idea himself), then it is gonna be a landslide crazy-GOP win.
Click to expand...

Trump beats Biden in 2024 - it'd be interesting if the Democrats ditch the corpse before it's too late.

Obviously, it'd be great if GOP did the same to Trump, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
Suedesi said:
Trump beats Biden in 2024 - it'd be interesting if the Democrats ditch the corpse before it's too late.

Obviously, it'd be great if GOP did the same to Trump, but I'm not holding my breath.
Click to expand...

Yes, cause some polls over a year away from the election says so?
 
Raoul said:
It also conveniently overlooks the possibility that Trump could be in prison by then.
Click to expand...

Anyway, dems just won a state house seat in New Hampshire that went 0.5 point for republicans in 2020, they won it by 12 points now.

Will republicans have higher turnout in the presidential election? No doubt, but it better be this massive wave the pollsters are predicting, for their own credibility's sake.
 
Morty_ said:
Anyway, dems just won a state house seat in New Hampshire that went 0.5 point for republicans in 2020, they won it by 12 points now.

Will republicans have higher turnout in the presidential election? No doubt, but it better be this massive wave the pollsters are predicting, for their own credibility's sake.
Click to expand...

A lot depends on voter enthusiasm in the two or so months before the election. Will the independents who are needed to win a Presidential election and who have already long ditched Trump suddenly change their minds and vote for a convicted felon on the cusp of going to prison? Highly unlikely, which is why Biden will always have the edge against Trump. He would however probably lose against someone like Haley, but that matchup will never happen.
 
Raoul said:
A lot depends on voter enthusiasm in the two or so months before the election. Will the independents who are needed to win a Presidential election and who have already long ditched Trump suddenly change their minds and vote for a convicted felon on the cusp of going to prison? Highly unlikely, which is why Biden will always have the edge against Trump. He would however probably lose against someone like Haley, but that matchup will never happen.
Click to expand...

I'm torn on this, Haley will likely do better in states like Arizona and Georgia, and i think would flip them back, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan though, i think Trump is the strongest GOP candidate on the field, no other republican has this weird connection with people there, though i would say Michigan is a long shot at this point for Trump.

You win some you lose some either way, and besides, an old school neocon candidate hasn't won a general election in almost 20 years, who is to say that wing is viable anymore, perhaps Trump is really their strongest card?
 
Morty_ said:
Anyway, dems just won a state house seat in New Hampshire that went 0.5 point for republicans in 2020, they won it by 12 points now.

Will republicans have higher turnout in the presidential election? No doubt, but it better be this massive wave the pollsters are predicting, for their own credibility's sake.
Click to expand...

It's also possible that the presidential candidate is significantly less popular than the party.
 
berbatrick said:
It's also possible that the presidential candidate is significantly less popular than the party.
Click to expand...

Yougov shows Biden is about the same in popularity as the party right now.
 
Last edited:
Morty_ said:
Yougov shows Biden is about the same in popularity as the party right now.
Click to expand...

Worth noting that outside the trash/partisan pollsters, the other pollsters called the 2022 house result exactly. (the terrible partisan polls totally polluted the senate predictions on the other hand)



So IMO, when yougov and others consistently show trump essentially tied, it should not be discounted. Then how to explain the consistent overperformance in special elections?



It's either that the polls are totally wrong, Dems and Biden are *way* ahead, or that people are splitting the local candidate from the president. Interestingly, the way the Dems salvaged 2022 and these special elections is by winning some Republicans (possibly on abortion), not by turning out their base. So the question is whether these wavering Republicans hate Biden or Trump more (or just stay home).



In that regard, Trump saying 6-week bans are terrible, and dilly-dallying on trans stuff, makes sense. Also since he (probably correctly) thinks that the primary is a done deal, making these attacks from the right impotent.

 
Gavin has been making the rounds on all kinds of shows lately (here, with Mirror Universe Chris Cuomo).

He's definitely up to something; probably involving putting pressure on Biden to not run so he can jump in or else trying to get him to ditch Harris in favor of himself.

 
Raoul said:
Gavin has been making the rounds on all kinds of shows lately (here, with Mirror Universe Chris Cuomo).

He's definitely up to something; probably involving putting pressure on Biden to not run so he can jump in or else trying to get him to ditch Harris in favor of himself.

Click to expand...

I don't think it's that nefarious. I think he is loving the opportunity to shit all over DeSanctis, especially in advance of their debate (if it actually happens). Would he mind being the '24 nominee? Probably not, but I do think he is setting the groundwork for '28.
 
WI_Red said:
I don't think it's that nefarious. I think he is loving the opportunity to shit all over DeSanctis, especially in advance of their debate (if it actually happens). Would he mind being the '24 nominee? Probably not, but I do think he is setting the groundwork for '28.
Click to expand...

He would definitely run in 28, but I think he also sees an opportunity this year. Biden is under immense pressure about his age and is probably only running again to not be remembered as the guy who backed out and let Trump back into the WH. As for Newsom, he's on way too many shows lately to make me think this is a coincidence.
 
Raoul said:
Gavin has been making the rounds on all kinds of shows lately (here, with Mirror Universe Chris Cuomo).

He's definitely up to something; probably involving putting pressure on Biden to not run so he can jump in or else trying to get him to ditch Harris in favor of himself.

Click to expand...


I think this would be a good move to freshen up his campaign next year.

Harris is seriously unpopular and given some believe that Biden already has one foot in the grave, it would be smart to have a running mate that people envisage as being "Presidential".

Push Harris to SCOTUS.
 
Raoul said:
He would definitely run in 28, but I think he also sees an opportunity this year. Biden is under immense pressure about his age and is probably only running again to not be remembered as the guy who backed out and let Trump back into the WH. As for Newsom, he's on way too many shows lately to make me think this is a coincidence.
Click to expand...

I would love to see Newsom run. I saw an interview with him where Hannity tried to corner him with the usual fascist nonsense about the US economy being way worse than it actually is. He completely schooled Hannity. If Hannity had the ability to feel shame, he would have walked away with the tail between his legs.
 
gaffs said:
He has not changed a bit...



A lie a minute, but people will buy it.
Click to expand...


I thought the interviewer did an absolutely appalling job. When you write down on an A4 sheet of paper (use more as it will likely be required) all of the things that Donald Trump has done, what he has tried to do and where he is currently at with his four indictments, he should be absolutely grilled in every single interview. This is not a normal guy. He is running a totally fascist political campaign, and he will absolutely decimate the Constitution if he wins 2024. There shouldn't be even an ounce of normalization during his interviews, yet the NBC interviewer sort of let him ramble on a little as if he is a perfectly viable option for the electorate. It just beggars belief. They need to use absolutely every opportunity to aggressively hound him during interviews. Don't put somebody in there who isn't prepared. Put somebody in there who has done their homework, who has studied his lies backwards, and has immediate fact checks for every single lie he tells. That is how he should be interviewed. The minute Trump sees that he is being given leeway, the interview swiftly moves in his favour. There is nothing normal about this guy, and there is nothing normal about what he has planned for the US should he win. All of his heroes are perma-leaders. Every single leader he looks up to doesn't have to undergo a re-election every four years, and that is precisely the setup Donald Trump wants to create for the United States of America.

A sobering read: https://www.salon.com/2023/09/07/plans-to-become-a-dictator--denial-will-not-save-you/
 
Kinky Melinky said:
I thought the interviewer did an absolutely appalling job. When you write down on an A4 sheet of paper (use more as it will likely be required) all of the things that Donald Trump has done, what he has tried to do and where he is currently at with his four indictments, he should be absolutely grilled in every single interview. This is not a normal guy. He is running a totally fascist political campaign, and he will absolutely decimate the Constitution if he wins 2024. There shouldn't be even an ounce of normalization during his interviews, yet the NBC interviewer sort of let him ramble on a little as if he is a perfectly viable option for the electorate. It just beggars belief. They need to use absolutely every opportunity to aggressively hound him during interviews. Don't put somebody in there who isn't prepared. Put somebody in there who has done their homework, who has studied his lies backwards, and has immediate fact checks for every single lie he tells. That is how he should be interviewed. The minute Trump sees that he is being given leeway, the interview swiftly moves in his favour. There is nothing normal about this guy, and there is nothing normal about what he has planned for the US should he win. All of his heroes are perma-leaders. Every single leader he looks up to doesn't have to undergo a re-election every four years, and that is precisely the setup Donald Trump wants to create for the United States of America.

A sobering read: https://www.salon.com/2023/09/07/plans-to-become-a-dictator--denial-will-not-save-you/
Click to expand...

I agree. He does it every time. He rides roughshod over the interviewer and because the lies just pour out of his mouth and can be about the most random things, i think it is quite hard to fact check him in real time.

The only people who i recall pinning him down were Jonathan Swan on Axios after the Ukraine call and Lesley Stall on 60 mins, where Trump walked out. But both times were when he was President, so much easier to keep him within the boundary of reality. Now, he goes off on a ballot stuffing and election rigging and it is so wild that its difficult to answer. Especially when he keeps saying "look at the evidence".

I worry that come debate time, he will do the same to Biden.

Damn - that article is sobering! The shackles will be off, if and when he gets in again.
 
calodo2003 said:
Yeah, Project 2025 is spooky as feck.
Click to expand...

He can't win 2024. Probably the most important election the US has had to date. The US needs greater safeguards against lunatic fascists like Trump being able to make so many changes if elected POTUS.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.