How would they align their results to the others though? Through how they adjust for selection bias?
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Bit unfair to say he was losing his mind.
Let's remember, Biden has struggled all his life with a stutter. As you get older, that is even harder to control. You could see he was losing the connection between mind and mouth, which is obviously not a winning recipe when you have to debate and campaign.
I agree, he shouldn't have ran in 2024. Those closest to him, including his wife and family should have given him a few home truths. Plus, just visually, he looks 15 years older that Trump.
The fact the Democrat leadership forced Bidens hand proves there isn't a double standard when it comes to calling out the clear deficiencies in their leader.
Even after Jan 6 when many Republicans came out and said Trump disgraced the presidency, they soon fell back in like because the GOP can't win an election currently without Trump and his hardcore base. Many of that hardcore base were previously non voters. It has not been tested yet weather these people would stick with The Republicans post Trump.
Biden has no hardcore base, certainly not people that wouldn't move to the next Dem candidate.
Let's remember, it was only yesterday that Trump said Obama was still in office...
Was this picked up by the national media? No. Would it have been all over Fox News had it been Biden? Yes. That is the double standard.
The Pod Save America guys (all ex Obama staffers) were sounding the alarm pre-debate and got loads of shit from the Biden campaign and other Dem surrogates. There were some out there trying to be heard but the party "leaders" needed that debate performance to be moved. To pretend that Biden would have been removed without that debacle is naive.
That being said, a thing can be two things. It took the debate to convince the party (way way after they should have been convinced) to make a change, but they made the change and that is a good thing.
That being said, a thing can be two things. It took the debate to convince the party (way way after they should have been convinced) to make a change, but they made the change and that is a good thing.
All year long we've heard about racedep, agedep, yet every single one of these oversampled polls point to one thing: Harris is running at parity with Biden 2020 among youths and minorities (except Arabs).
Per Pew 2020 exit study, Biden was 59-35 among 18-29.
Firstly, you asked twice and I answer on the second attempt cause I genuinely forgot to respond the first time.
Secondly, why are you getting your panties in a bunch over Trump supporters? And since you have apparently gone around and spoke to “sophisticated” Trump supporters please enlighten us on what exactly is sophisticated about them.
Finally, as for your last sentence, good job on making fun of someone whose first language isn’t English. Your parents definitely raised you right. But hey at least I can speak more than one language!
What percentage of the registered young voters are likely to vote?
Well played Democrats.
They way he says Nineteenhundredeightyeight makes it sound like that was in in the 19th century
.Difficult to believe the dems might actually have found the one other person capable of losing vs. Trump.
I know a Trump supporter who runs a business employing over 200 contractors. He disagrees strongly with Bidens DOL worker classification rules.
Another business owner I know supports Trump as he has benefited from the qualified business income tax deductions.
I know Trump supporters who are infuriated with the fact that illegal border crossings have skyrocketed under Biden. Hard to argue against that.
I know Trump supporters that are vehemently pro life due to religious beliefs.
All know that Trump is largely an idiot, but believe when it comes down to governing and the fact he is supported by the Republican policy apparatus, it will lead to lower taxes and less regulation for their business.
It wouldn't stop me having a beer with them or playing as round of golf with them. I say that as I know these people from my golf club in North Carolina. All good, honest, family people that I respect, even though i disagree with them on many issues. The secret is to not make politics the be all and end all. I know some that do and i avoid them.
My general point is that it is lazy stereotyping to just say all Trump supporters are red hat wearing morons who vote against their own interest. Posting clips of people at rallys is not reflective of 70+ million people that will vote for him. Yes, it is funny to laugh at some of the garbage, but it is no different to Fox News making out that all Democrats are radical Israel hating, BLM supporting ANTIFA members. We tend to do better on this forum than this.
And even if you wish to make your point by showing the red hat wearers, bear in mind, many have been subjected to a media diet that has them believing that up is down and black is white. Many are much worse off than they were before. Many have lost jobs in industries that have gone abroad. Many have had the short straw in life so they are susceptible to follow a false prophet like Trump.
The average American voter makes their decision based on vibes and not critical thinking.
Trump lies and talk gibberish ('weaving'). But he does so with utter conviction and confidence. It's almost as if he fully believes in his own lies which is trait of a psychopath. Unfortunately, an average voter is unable to see through this.
Kamala on the other hand is spewing out scripted deflections on tough questions. Her responses lack conviction therefore sound unconvincing.
How you say things is more important than what you actually say. This is probably why Trump continues to hold popularity among a lot of folk. I have heard people say 'We know he lies, but atleast he believes in lies'.
Trump lies and talk gibberish ('weaving'). But he does so with utter conviction and confidence. It's almost as if he fully believes in his own lies which is trait of a psychopath. Unfortunately, an average voter is unable to see through this.
Kamala on the other hand is spewing out scripted deflections on tough questions. Her responses lack conviction therefore sound unconvincing.
How you say things is more important than what you actually say. This is probably why Trump continues to hold popularity among a lot of folk. I have heard people say 'We know he lies, but atleast he believes in lies'.
From Nate Cohen on the back of today's NYT National Poll...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/upshot/poll-trump-harris-election.html
"In our national surveys, Mr. Trump makes huge gains in the places where Republicans excelled in the midterms; he makes no gains at all where Republicans struggled, which includes states like Pennsylvania."
Unlikely, but it would be hilarious if Trump won the popular vote but lost the EC. Cue Republicans crying for a constitutional amendment.
That point has been discussed for the last decade.
Is he is purposely lying?
Or does he believe what he is saying to be true?
Or does he just regurgitate what he has been told without caring to check if true to false?
And if he does, then are they really lies?
Does anyone know for sure?
Excellent, now absorb the rest of what I wrote there.
Good points and I agree with them.
even before his removal he was polling at ~45%. there is a 40-45% floor for both parties, these would vote for hitler or a dog if it appeared on the correct party line.
i think it's pretty obvious he was removed because he was on course to lose heavily, but there's no need to accept that in order to look at the polling before he was removed.
I'll refer to Gaffs post above because it says what I would say in response to this.
49% voted in 2020, a big jump from 2016 but still significantly lags behind other age groups.
Their registration rate also lags behind other group at 50%, so only 1 in 4 18-29 eligible voters vote in a presidential election with historically high youth turnout, a sad state of affair because the US can literally have socialism if they vote at parity with the older demographics.
Florida" taking one for the team" so to speak, again?
I mean, Harris will win the national vote, but yes, i can believe she doesn't need to win it by much, perhaps this election is more like 2022 than most thought.
He was removed because a) he was due to lose the general and b) likely to drag down Dem House and Senate candidates. That is why Pelosi wanted him to withdraw and wasnt taking no for an answer.
If he was polling 5 points clear of Trump post a terrible debate and the house and senate looked safe, then Biden would still be the candidate, i'm sure.
But that didn't happen.
To use an analogy, they took Bidens keys off him when he crashed the car. The prudent thing may have been to take his keys off him before an accident.
Now, we don't know this for sure, but had Trump been a drag on the GOP ticket in 2024, then I very much doubt that MAGA Mike Johnson would have moved to push Trump aside. They are wedded to him. I mean, Lara Trump is the head of the RNC and campaign money is being siphoned off towards the family. Why do you think they have outsourced their ground game to Musk? The whole party has been co-opted by Trump, to the point that there is no room for any decent. That is the difference. No one will ever take Trump keys.
The double standards exist is for a mix of reasons:
- We take for granted that Trump is a fascist turd, with dementia, rambling around and not so smart all around. When you take someone/something for granted, you put it as a background noise. Not that is the correct thing to do
- Exhaustion: Had been like this since the primaries in 2015, almost 10 years. everything had been said, we "got him" so many times and is fecking tefloned
- Harris is the left in US, and when I say the left I mean at the left of the spectrum being clearly right wing. And is the only realistic option that the left has to vote as POTUS and it sucks, because it doesn't tick many left boxes if any. Then is "your" candidate who you hold to your standards and it fecking sucks. Because is like you would criticize an opposition candidate but being "your" candidate
- "I want to change him/her": Being the your favourite (or least bad) candidate doesn't mean that should be exempt to criticism because when is more likely to ask for a compromise in certain areas? when they need your vote or when they are secured in the WH for 4 years? pressure needs to be exerted and has to come from everywhere, from the streets, internet and an unimportant, in the grand scheme of things, football forum. If they are not hold accountable, they will do even worse things. And Harris is the only candidate that can be pushed to the right direction while Trump couldn't care less
- We take for granted that Trump is a fascist turd, with dementia, rambling around and not so smart all around. When you take someone/something for granted, you put it as a background noise. Not that is the correct thing to do
- Exhaustion: Had been like this since the primaries in 2015, almost 10 years. everything had been said, we "got him" so many times and is fecking tefloned
- Harris is the left in US, and when I say the left I mean at the left of the spectrum being clearly right wing. And is the only realistic option that the left has to vote as POTUS and it sucks, because it doesn't tick many left boxes if any. Then is "your" candidate who you hold to your standards and it fecking sucks. Because is like you would criticize an opposition candidate but being "your" candidate
- "I want to change him/her": Being the your favourite (or least bad) candidate doesn't mean that should be exempt to criticism because when is more likely to ask for a compromise in certain areas? when they need your vote or when they are secured in the WH for 4 years? pressure needs to be exerted and has to come from everywhere, from the streets, internet and an unimportant, in the grand scheme of things, football forum. If they are not hold accountable, they will do even worse things. And Harris is the only candidate that can be pushed to the right direction while Trump couldn't care less
Then don't watch
Biden was not suffering from "stuttering issues." Please.
He did, as he struggled with stuttering all his life, but that is beyond the point that he was cooked
Some MAGA fecks are going to jail.
You cant use presidential pardon for state crimes, even if Trump wins these idiots are picking up some soap. It's just like that MAGA election clerk in Colorado who tampered with the records and got herself a nice 9 years in prison.
Normalizin'
This is a take...well over a decade of reading @Raoul posts I find it very hard to believe he would vote Trump
It’s a joke!
Same as the LA Times apparently. Harris apparently isn't their cup of tea so they are "returning to their roots of not endorsing any candidate".
More likely that Bazos fears retribution.
Something is up. Never thought these turds over at CNN would ever turn on Kamala the way they did…
Bezos doesn't own the LA times. Also, he has owned the Wapo since 2013 through Trump's first term, and outside the odd insult, Trump was powerless to do anything about it or any other outlet.