Honestly, whats the difference between him and Kari Lake? None in reality, but i guess 10% of the electorate is gonna split tickets somehow.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Honestly, whats the difference between him and Kari Lake? None in reality, but i guess 10% of the electorate is gonna split tickets somehow.
Hahaha. They deserve it.
Difference is there is no Kari Lake without Trump. The latter is why there are so many outspoken right wing nuts in America.
Just because you have seen them repeatedly in the models, it doesn't make them quality polls. Look at the 538 rankings for these polls...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
7 polls from Insider Advantage - Rank 97 - 2/3 stars. Transparency 3.3/10.
7 polls from Fabrizio/McLauglin - Rank 136 - 1.7/3 stars. Transparency 3.3/10.
6 polls from OnMessage - Rank 238 - 1.1/3 stars. Transparency 1.7/10.
3 polls from Trafalgar - Rank 279 - 0.6/3 stars. Transparency 1.1/10.
Note the transparency rating. It means that quite often these polls won't publish the crosstabs, how they sampled or data on how the poll was conducted.
Best example of a ridiculous GOP poll is the recent "American Greatness" poll, which is included in the 538 model still. The ran a PA poll and largely excluded Philadelphia!!!
https://www.newsweek.com/pennsylvania-poll-tipp-trump-harris-likely-voters-philadelphia-1967590
Yes, these polls will not be weighted as highly as ones from respected sources who work with major Universities, but if you throw in enough junk polls into the model, they will start to make a difference. Especially as the polls recency gets a high weighting. And those from swing states what get an every higher weighting into shaping the national model. And we are talking here a huge number - 27 of the most recent 60 polls.
I dont think its being overhyped.
Of all the African countries he pick Congo.
Congo is home to a huge rainforest, so he is trying to evoke an image of black people from the jungle. That conjures up the images for his followers of uncivilized, potentially dangerous people with spears who may kill you for food.
We have become numb to this over the last 10 years, but it really is some of the most racist rhetoric ever uttered by any politician.
Trumpers cant locate canada in a map and they will know that first: Congo is a country. Second: they have reinforest
They could well think that congo is a gang or they ara masai from the savana
They are black, that is what it matters. Racism
You are probably right, but i think there is a reason he says Congo and not Sudan, Togo or Benin.
And let's remember, Trump is not writing these speeches. It will be Steven Miller. He knows that Congo evokes Jungle.
I went through the polls used in models over the past few weeks earlier today and didn’t see any issues. If a poll is used it is weighted appropriately based on sample size and past success level, so even if a few “low quality” polls may be included, their quality is contextualized in the models. Further, if one is overly concerned about something like this, it’s usually to assuage an anxiety that they are losing.
More evidence internal polling for the dems is in bad shape
This "uneventful" election so far has had:
- Two assassination attempts on one candidate.
- Said candidate being charged, convicted, sentenced and put on a mug shot.
- Said candidate screaming live in a debate that "they're eating the dogs", which was at that point demonstrably false.
- At about the same time the VP candidate was pretty openly saying that it didn't matter if he invented stories as long as it helps with his goals.
- On the other side, three months ago, there was a different candidate. An incumbent who had won the primary. Who faced pressure from his own party to drop his candidacy after a very poor debate where he was exposed as an old, feeble, rambling dude. Therefore we had two presidential debates with different candidates from the incumbent party.
- A two period Republican VP and one of the conservative icons publically endorsed the Democrat candidate, something that I assume doesn't happen very often in US politics.
- What else? Oh right, one of the swing states has an incumbent governor going for reelection who called himself a black nazi in a porn message board.
What makes you say there is "no issues" ?
Agree, low quality polls are given less weight. But when you throw 26 of them into the model, it adds up!
I agree with your question. She is trying her best to look moderate where she can: 1) I will make sure Israel has what it needs to defend itself, and 2) food should reach people in Gaza.
https://static.politico.com/79/e9/eaf701084e77be9afaa85356e3b8/slf-october-memo.pdf
It may mean nothing, but its interesting that according to their own internal polling that Montana isn't nearly as rozy as all polling suggests, that Cruz is in real trouble, but also, that Wisconsin is a real pickup opportunity somehow.
It hurts my brain reading through this though, i like to read the candidates number that is in front, not the republican one by default.
It may mean nothing, but its interesting that according to their own internal polling that Montana isn't nearly as rozy as all polling suggests, that Cruz is in real trouble, but also, that Wisconsin is a real pickup opportunity somehow.
It hurts my brain reading through this though, i like to read the candidates number that is in front, not the republican one by default.
Overall good polls for the Dems.
Montana is probably gone, but I think that the Dems will hold on Wisconsin.
I mean, i differ too, i can't see Tester winning this, and i find it very unlikely that Wisconsin and Texas senate races are somehow equally likely to flip either way.
Cruz might lose in a best-case scenario, Baldwin might lose in a worst-case scenario, but as much as i might dislike Wisconsin, surely both aren't toss-ups? Reality where Cruz loses and Baldwin loses, well...
Some of these internal numbers though, makes more sense in my mind, than the regular polling though, funny, isn't it?
Last edited:
Feels like this is a GOP group trying to whip up support.
Another poll with Allred within 1 point of lyin’ Ted Cruz. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Ominous stuff
Togo and Benin? You are making shit up! Maybe you are right. I think is just the only country that they can link to black africa
Trump heard about the Congo in a song back in the 80s.
Billy Joel needs to update his lyrics.
Mississippi coming in to save the senate majority for dems, just pretend this is an R internal instead and do some wishful thinking, okay?
Jokes aside, i had no idea there was even a senate election this cycle in Mississippi, but in my defense, surely i wasn't the only one?
Let’s face it these endorsements don’t do shit so no it’s not a big deal if this former GOP member has sided with Harris.
Yeah you missed:
- The aforementioned President and Vice President's ongoing facilitation of a genocide. A genocide that has also killed American citizens, friends of Obama and Pelosi and family members of the people they expect to vote for them.
And they are burning more than 1 bn USD in the last 3 months campainging instead of spending it in anything else like hurracain relief
I cant wait to get to the elections and start with midterms. Is the never ending campaingning story and the "most important elections in our lifetimes". US politics is nuts, a fecking show, panem et circenses.
Look at the RCP average and how its being used by rightwingers to tout their 'lead', they dont weight the pollsters and arbitrarily choose which poll to include, for example they used the TIPP LV poll where they nuked Philadelphia instead of the RV one with Harris up 49-45.
It's a head in the sand exercise to pretend that there isn't an active disinformation campaign going on by right wing junk pollsters to flood the zone and create the illusion of Trump's 'surge', 'momentum', same as in 2022. The majority of the people dont know what the feck poll weighting is, nor can they differentiate the difference between 538, SilverBulletin, Split Ticket or VoteHubUS average to the RCP average.
Name one sane republican candidate. Vance? Tom Cotton? Ron DeSantis? Marjorie Taylor Green? Jim Jordan? Elise Stefanik? Tommy Tuberville? They’re all a bunch of halfwits.
Whatever your personal opinion of him, make this one the stump speech for every Democrats running for office.
I listened to Obama in Pittsburgh the other day and it was nowhere near as good as this, Bill Clinton is still one of a kind at retail politics.
Nikki Haley? I'm not saying she's sane, but she's better at appearing that way than the ones you mention.
On the flood of 'R' polls - I think it's more insidious than that. It fuels the narrative that - if election night looks bad for Trump - it is out of step with 'reality' so Trump et al will be justified in their legal shenanigans.
Only a few more weeks to go, thankfully.
Only a few more weeks to go, thankfully.
Haley is DOA in a GOP primary. It has to be a white male, and of that bunch only Vance and Youngkin who can pretend to be sane.
Maybe. If Harris wins, the GOP primary in 2028 will be interesting for sure. Vance will not be seen as the natural successor, I would think.
Oh, sure, I didnt mean that either of them is a shoe in, just saying of the current prominent GOPs only those two can a) realistically win the primary and b) sell it to the electorate at large that they are closer to Mitt Romney than Donald Trump. The GOP base will never nominate a person of color, let alone a woman of color. A small slice might get interested like they did with Herman Cain or Vivek Ramaswamy, but ultimately that's not enough.
I'd put my money on some new goon to show up and seduce the MAGA base. It could be someone that hasn't yet run for national office.
If Trump loses, he runs again in 2028. Only death will stop the bloke and losing strengthens his support, as his base see anything not going their way as a conspiracy.
Coupled with the fact that there is no natural successor - as long as Trump is around, he’s the contender.
If Trump is alive in 2028, I think he will be shot physically and mentally. No matter what, I really think this is the last time he runs.
This 100%. He's barely holding it together this time, I'm not sure he'll even be around in 4 years time.