They both look like outliers.
But given that its a A+ rated poll, once the PA results get added to the Silver and 538 models, it will boost Harris's odds dramatically.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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They both look like outliers.
But given that its a A+ rated poll, once the PA results get added to the Silver and 538 models, it will boost Harris's odds dramatically.
Where do you see that?
At this point I think you should stop giving them the benefit of the doubt by calling them mistakes. I don’t think they are, I think it is intentional because Trump is great for ratings.
My dream outcome for this election. Trump wins the popular vote, but Harris wins the EC with over 300 - she takes PA, MI, WI, GA and NC by a point each.
Would love to see Trump and the Republicans complain about the unfairness of the EC for the next four years.
Would love to see Trump and the Republicans complain about the unfairness of the EC for the next four years.
Even before its added to the various models, Silver, whose model has been perceived as the least favorable to Harris, already has her about to reclaim her favorite status.
What should they do? Ignore him? Very hard to do that when he sets himself on fire every day with ludicrous comments.
If they did ignore him, people would complain that they should be showing him making a fool of himself.
It is not like they are covering his rallies in full, like they did in 2016. Even Fox news are cutting away from his rallies, although normally when he starts talking about the 2020 election and Hannibal Lecter.
I doubt it. It's probably going to be more intensive "election was stolen again" narrative.
No, you don’t ignore him, but you don’t let him and his surrogates lie their asses of in every interview or press conference. You also don’t take his insane ramblings and try to “sanewash” them.
Even before its added to the various models, Silver, whose model has been perceived as the least favorable to Harris, already has her about to reclaim her favorite status.
Yes, because the majority of polls reflect her debate success.
Plus, she is now at around a net 0 favorability. I think the was around 15 points under the day she was promoted to the head of the ticket. That is a seismic shift, which shows people like what they see in her.
Silver, it seems, puts too much wight into the GOP friendly polls. There was a tranche of them that came out in the two weeks before the debate, as well at that NYT Sienna poll that looked good for Trump. That moved his model way too much. He should have never been at +65% chance.
A little sceptical about Nate Silver since him getting onboard with Polymarket and Peter Thiel.
538 has her winning 64 times out of 100 currently. With the weight given to PA polls as well at the NYT poll status, expect her to get a big boost in today's models.
I think a lot of journalists do. Look at the push back Vance got from Dana Bash. And the live fact check that Trump got at the debate.
It is difficult for a lot of channels to come out and say that a presidential candidate is "insane". But i'm seeing CNN calling his lies out constantly.
The issue I see in American media is that that you have Fox News and others, who refuse to call out the Trump lies and are essentially a wing of his campaign and the GOP. Anyone who does call out the lies, is labeled "Anti Trump" (aka fake news media) and are painted as being far left. The middle has been eradicated.
Traditionally, ABC or CNN would be the middle, but for that to happen again you need to have a Republican party that somehow discovers what it means to tell the truth. Not easy when they have been willingly co opted by a man who lies every time he speaks.
Explain it slowly to me, they're encouraging a vote against Trump, but not 3rd party candidates, but also not endorsing Harris. So, erm, what?!
In summary, they don't know what they want, but simultaneously don't want to create the appearance that failing to endorse anyone has now made them politically irrelevant.
The way the media should be covering Trump's insanity is by covering his insanity, in full. There should be front-page, headline stories into his inability to recall facts, string words together into coherent thoughts and literally forget things he said earlier in the same speeches. For example, that 'PACT' thing or whatever he said yesterday he'd overturn if President to the Long Islanders who hate it - the headline should be 'President Trump appears unable to recall that he passed the 'PACT' policies he now promises to repeal'.
Similarly, look at the coverage of the his comment on Auto-Insurance. It's like 'Trump promises to lower auto-insurance'. No. The headline should be 'Trump does not explain promises of lowering auto-insurance' (or literally anything else)
When Biden's age was a concern, look how it was covered. Wall to wall experts, leaks from prominent Dems and so forth. Trump is, honestly, less coherent now than Biden ever was, he just speaks louder and with more energy. Look at what happened when Biden misnamed Sisi - it was like a f*cking national call to action. Trump does things like that every 2 minutes when he's speaking.
I also think a much bigger deal should be made about both the clear election inteference they're planning and also Vance basically saying truth doesn't matter to him. The headlin should simple be: 'VP Candidate says that he's in favour of deliberately lying to the electorate if it increases his chances of winning'.
Edit: great example from the (pretty awful now) NYTimes: "JD Vance said that he would continue to describe Haitian residents in Springfield as 'Illegal Aliens'" No ffs, the headline should be "JD Vance continues to lie about status of legal residents of Springfield in order to race-bait."
I agree Fox news is a lost cause. But the 'left-wing' (Other than MSNBC, is there really any? ABC/CBS/CNN are just balanced imo) always cache comments on the right with kid gloves, while attacking the left. It's downright odd imo.
Similarly, look at the coverage of the his comment on Auto-Insurance. It's like 'Trump promises to lower auto-insurance'. No. The headline should be 'Trump does not explain promises of lowering auto-insurance' (or literally anything else)
When Biden's age was a concern, look how it was covered. Wall to wall experts, leaks from prominent Dems and so forth. Trump is, honestly, less coherent now than Biden ever was, he just speaks louder and with more energy. Look at what happened when Biden misnamed Sisi - it was like a f*cking national call to action. Trump does things like that every 2 minutes when he's speaking.
I also think a much bigger deal should be made about both the clear election inteference they're planning and also Vance basically saying truth doesn't matter to him. The headlin should simple be: 'VP Candidate says that he's in favour of deliberately lying to the electorate if it increases his chances of winning'.
Edit: great example from the (pretty awful now) NYTimes: "JD Vance said that he would continue to describe Haitian residents in Springfield as 'Illegal Aliens'" No ffs, the headline should be "JD Vance continues to lie about status of legal residents of Springfield in order to race-bait."
I agree Fox news is a lost cause. But the 'left-wing' (Other than MSNBC, is there really any? ABC/CBS/CNN are just balanced imo) always cache comments on the right with kid gloves, while attacking the left. It's downright odd imo.
they're losers! they lost at the convention, where they wanted nothing and got even less, and they don't have the guts to take that loss and understand what it means and so leave the party.
so they re doing this nothingness and will hopefully get mocked for it by all sides.
They want to endorse Harris, but can't because of the appearance of condoning US policy towards Palestine. For all intents an purposes that might as well be an endorsement.
Their internals must’ve shown him being a drag on top of the ticket, as predicted.
Not sure how that actually shakes out though, NC already were at risk of delaying early voting because their state SC ruled in favour of getting RFK Jr. off the ballot, they already had to reprint millions of ballots starting a couple of weeks ago, if they have to go through that process again it’s a pretty ironclad voter disenfranchisement case.
Not sure how that actually shakes out though, NC already were at risk of delaying early voting because their state SC ruled in favour of getting RFK Jr. off the ballot, they already had to reprint millions of ballots starting a couple of weeks ago, if they have to go through that process again it’s a pretty ironclad voter disenfranchisement case.
I'm with Yair on this one, if there is a scandal that gets him to drop out it would have to be extreme.
Not going to happen, the federal deadline is the 21st and the state committed to trying to meet it. The last time they said it would take 13-14 days to reprint, so that would be October before they could start sending them out.
Yeah tomorrow is the overseas voters deadline.
It’s a gold mine for Ds regardless, whether he’s in or out, just cut a thousand ads tying Trump with him to highlight his lack of judgment. Feeling much more positive about NC than GA this cycle and this solidifies it.
I've read it had something to do with x-rated peep shows in the mid 2000s. Unconfirmed though.
edit. It could be this.
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Fecking hell. 
Bad thing in principle.
How exactly does China pose "an existential crisis for the Western belief system and way of life"?
How exactly does starting a trade war that hurts all average joes in both countries in any way stop this existential crisis?
Where did they find this guy?
I was hoping for former gay porno actor but this will do.
On the set of a Tarantino film
Finding a black political candidate who is caught saying slavery should be brought back is kind of impressive tbh.
Never underestimate the GOP.