No not like the universe, more like Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, and Georgia have in recent cycles. You have to bear in mind that demographics in states are in constant flux and TX is not exempt from this reality.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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No not like the universe, more like Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, and Georgia have in recent cycles. You have to bear in mind that demographics in states are in constant flux and TX is not exempt from this reality.
Texas is too far red to change to blue. It would need some dramatic event (e.g., realignment after civil rights) for it to become blue IMO. I am very confident that it won’t happen this or next election.
It probably is something that Dems should spend time on very long-term, cause winning Texas basically means that GOP has no path to winning the presidency without massively pivoting towards the center. But that is something that can happen in next decade, or the one after that.
Vance being able to get on tv this morning admitting they have to create disgusting fake stories, and they don't care that they cause real harm, bomb threats to schools. And I bet you will barely hear anything about this in a few days.
It is simply insane. I mean days after the Taylor Swift endorsement trump screaming into the void how much he hates her now? These people are unhinged. On top of being frauds and criminals. But, I bet you can find a "both sides" argument from someone still. It could not be a clearer difference with the outright hate and vitriol these MAGA people have.
They don't give a damn who gets hurt either while pretending to fearmonger their way into power.
If Kamala Harris or Tim Watz got on tv and said they had to make up stories to get people to "focus on issues" it would be over immediately. Vance does exactly that and not only will it not hurt them I bet, but they will steal have their top idiots in the cult actually believing these dumb ass pet stories still.
It is simply insane. I mean days after the Taylor Swift endorsement trump screaming into the void how much he hates her now? These people are unhinged. On top of being frauds and criminals. But, I bet you can find a "both sides" argument from someone still. It could not be a clearer difference with the outright hate and vitriol these MAGA people have.
They don't give a damn who gets hurt either while pretending to fearmonger their way into power.
If Kamala Harris or Tim Watz got on tv and said they had to make up stories to get people to "focus on issues" it would be over immediately. Vance does exactly that and not only will it not hurt them I bet, but they will steal have their top idiots in the cult actually believing these dumb ass pet stories still.
Texas is actually primed for Dem gains by way of very large population centers. As mentioned in my previous post, as the Houston and Dallas areas grow and more people from other states move to TX (the recent exodus from California to other states being a prime example) it will diversify the voting base from Red to Blue. If we were talking about Wyoming, North or South Dakota, then your point would be more meaningful since none of them have mega cities. As we've seen with VA (DC suburbs), CO (Denver), AZ (Phoenix), and GA (Atlanta) - each of them have gone from either red or competitive for red and have drifted noticeably blue. Texas is in the same category as those.
The f*ck does that mean? Is this the new campaing strategy? Last time went well, let's get that back into the narrative?
To be fair, combine golf and the US and I’m surprised gunshots aren’t heard on every hole on a daily basis.
Yeah but it can revert back to whatever they are/were. Like Florida. Tending blue or red is not exactly linear and it can be stopped or reverted. Texas has been a Republican stronghold for a while, embracing the extremes of their politics, much like Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas, or other deep red states.
In my experience, most Californians who moved away are conservatives or those critical of the state's housing and living expenses. I doubt many would vote blue, as they left primarily to find more affordable places to live.
Florida is an outlier because of MAGA. Trump lives there and DeSantis is a popular governor in a state with a lot of retirees and military. It will once again become more competitive once Trump leaves the political scene imo. The same state that narrowly missed electing Andrew Gillum as Governor a few years ago and had a Dem senator until four years ago, will revert to being a swing state when MAGA is taken off the table as a galvanizing force among Republicans.
As for people leaving CA - its pretty politically diverse. As in they're not leaving because of CA libs, they're leaving largely because of the cost of living. This reality usually gets misperceived because prominent people like Rogan, Musk, Shapiro and a few others say they're leaving because of political reasons.
Once again they're coming after Trump because they're scared.
That shows how ironclad his voters are and how far gone a big chunk of american people are. Trump can only win through vote suppression. With Biden had it. With Kamala less but seems that she is not engaging enough. The closer we get the more people will get engaged so hopefully it will make up the current differences
We may see a California style exodus in Florida in the near future with how costly the state has become.
We found day to day items quite expensive while we were there, but how much is this offset by no state income tax?
Its definitely much more expensive in South Florida. Although at least they have the state tax issue to keep more people in state than CA can.
I don't know that exact bit but the cost of housing, rent, property taxes, car insurance, and other insurances have surged to record highs according to long-time residents I work with at MacDill. I have heard electric bills are soaring as well, one colleague mentioning his 2000 sq ft home hitting $700+ in monthly utility. I'm currently paying $398/month car insurance for a 525 (paid off) and X3 (loan) with a clean record. It's a no-fault state so after a hit-and-run on my 525, I had to pay a $500 deductible which in part explains why rates are so high - lots of uninsured motorists and crime. I'd probably move to the DFW area but I like the Tampa weather from October to April.
Florida has major problems with climate change as well, and not just because of all its low-lying coastal areas. Those who can leave may be tempted to do so. The question is where is their next sunshine state?
Damn that’s insane!
Is house insurance still available ? Feels like each big storm makes it less likely
Now they're saying Trump was the target?
Is house insurance still available ? Feels like each big storm makes it less likely
I don't own but I presume it is. I do recall after Ian there were homes in Fort Myers with roofs older than ten years that were unable to secure a hurricane policy rendering their home a total loss, unless they had the funds to rebuild/repair. A colleague bought in Riverview area (part of greater Tampa) and he said you have to buy separate flood and hurricane policies, with the former only necessary if in a designated flood zone (he is). He said home insurances are better rates compared to car insurance.
The worst part is his house is massively overpriced due to the market rush post-covid. His home should be valued around $300-400k but paid around $650k. That $300-400k should be priced is still high compared to similar homes across the country. There is no value in buying, imo, as the market has probably peaked or very close to. It seems like parts of Florida not previously overpriced are catching up to the North East and West Coast costs.
It was -9 and -5.5 respectively in 16 and 20, if come November its -4 or less then it will be in play 2028. Clinton lost Georgia by 5 in 2016 and Biden barely eked it out in 20, for instance.
California was a solid GOP state all the way to late 80s/early 90s, even in the 00s it elected a GOP governor, now it's solid blue.
That being said, demographic is not destiny, urban dwellers lean D but young Latino men are proving a troublesome group for D to capture, you just cant assume that because they arent white they will inevitably vote for you. 3rd or 4th generation Hispanics in general identify as Americans and arent susceptible to lenient immigration rhetorics (not that it matters, since D is basically running on 2010s Republican immigration platform anyway)
They're trying to re-capture that almost-assassinated spirit. The one that lasted half a day the last time.
Like, remember when Trump was nearly assassinated? It literally doesn't matter.
That could have been worse tbh. Think Trump himself badly botched the momentum on that with his terrible RNC speech.
NY Post retracted their earlier report it seems.
Swifties act fast.
“Violence has no place in America”
Ha.
Ha.
Hmm. Dubious.
So transparent that the utter cnut would try and use that. I cannot wait until he is gone from politics.
Isnt it convenient that when his campaign is under intense scrutiny for racist blood libel/conspiracy theories/Laura Loomer, suddenly theres another assasination attempt that has like 1% chance of working?
That doesn't really explain things though. The base is safe for both parties, it's those less locked in and the independents where the action is. And somehow they aren't moved by Trump saying anything than by Harris saying basically whatever. Of course, by now people now Trump and he doesn't surprise them anymore. But it's been like this basically from the start of his political career.
Maybe the issue is that Trump anyway doesn't stand for anything in particular. It's clear where he stands overall, in very vague terms (populist bully, etc.), and that's really the core of his being. While politicians usually aren't tied to such a concept (or at least not that high-level and simplistic), but rather to their actual viewpoints.
He's had a disasterous debate and been shot at twice. Maybe, just maybe he might do a Biden and call it a day.
I think is because for so many people, being morally acceptable is not part of their core beliefs as long as they push their ideology. While for others, being morally acceptable and being competent is part of their ideology. Clearly, for the Trump cult they have a racist narrative bundled up on past times were better nostalgia that they want to go back and the end justifies the means (Trump). And Trump makes them believe that he is the guy
He can't, he has to win to ensure he doesn't die in jail. He's better being shot at by patsies on the campaign trail than having to sit his fat ass down in the prison canteen every day.