2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Raoul said:
Her main problem is she doesn't know whether to cast herself as an incumbent or an outsider. Trump is benefiting from that because he is largely running as the guy who can alleviate the high cost of living and inflation that happened under Biden (and Harris). So she needs to figure out who she is and whether she wants to plant her flag as a continuation of Bidenomics or whether she wants to disassociate herself from the administration whose agenda she has dedicated the past 4 years working to advance.
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Her biggest problem is that apart from the one CNN interview and some rallys, she is not "out there". People have seen the ad's but where is she to back them up in the week after the DNC?

It would seem that she has been hunkered down and preparing for the debate. Hopefully the prep pays off.

Post the debate, I hope she will be everywhere and will be speaking to the media daily.

Re Biden, she has to make the message clear. Remind people how much of a shit place the country was in when Trump left. How he put $8tril onto the national debt and how this plus his taffis lead to inflation. Point to the Chips act, the Inflation reduction act etc etc.

She needs to make it clear his tariffs are a tax on America and why. It is not hard to explain that putting a 10% tariff on China will only result on a 10% increase on goods we import. In is not like China are going to swallow that 10%. Explain that.

She needs to explain that now Biden has put things back on track, with inflation back down to 2.9%, then her administrations priority will be to lower the price of everyday goods that rose because of Trump's policies and COVID.

Walz needs to step up too. What is he bringing to the table? He should be on some of the podcasts that Trump is on. He should be on College Gameday. I thought the idea of Walz was that he could chip away at the lead Trump has on white men.

The debate is pivotal. 51mil people watched the last one. I suspect it will be more this time. She has to deliver.
 
Wild that, for a third election in a row, it's a genuine detriment to their electability to hear the chosen candidate from either party speak.

The bunker strategy with Biden was probably a good one in hindsight.
 
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Sweet Square said:
I don’t think one of the main guys who was part of the 2000 Bush election team and responsible for the patriot act cares about defending democracy.
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Can you explain to me how mass surveillance and an election that went to the absolute wire that no matter the result would have left one side pissed off and unhappy, is somehow undermining democracy?

Being anti-state surveillance is a legitimate stance. Somehow linking that to the undermining of democracy is not.
 
Beachryan said:
This shouldn't be a contest. An upsisde down mop in a bucket is less dangerous to the US than Donald Trump. And yet the media are doing everything possible to create a race, and they're going to carry him to victory. He's a f*cking rapist, a convicted criminal a convicted sexual assaulter and most importantly he committed actual treason. Oh and was impeached twice. But please, tell me more about changes to the goddamn child tax credit or something before Harris can get my vote.
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Preach on it, brother.
 
Raoul said:
Her main problem is she doesn't know whether to cast herself as an incumbent or an outsider. Trump is benefiting from that because he is largely running as the guy who can alleviate the high cost of living and inflation that happened under Biden (and Harris). So she needs to figure out who she is and whether she wants to plant her flag as a continuation of Bidenomics or whether she wants to disassociate herself from the administration whose agenda she has dedicated the past 4 years working to advance.
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Maybe if she told people at her rallies that little Johnny is getting sex changes after recess and his parents don't even know about it. Maybe then she'd be taken a little bit more seriously and not required to be specific in everything, something her opponent is never ever pressed on.
 
Eyepopper said:
I mean, c'mon, who the feck is buying this shit?

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I was in an Irish bar in Croatia a few days ago and 2 yanks were astounding me in that They knew of Enoch Burke and they back him and his crusade against cutting off dicks, they were from Georgia by the way, I was speechless and wanting to get the feck out of there
 
GiddyUp said:
Maybe if she told people at her rallies that little Johnny is getting sex changes after recess and his parents don't even know about it. Maybe then she'd be taken a little bit more seriously and not required to be specific in everything, something her opponent is never ever pressed on.
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Every candidate will be held to a different standard to what Trump will be. This is not something new since it was also the case in 16 and 20.
 
Sweet Square said:
I don’t think one of the main guys who was part of the 2000 Bush election team and responsible for the patriot act cares about defending democracy.
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Fair, I don't either.

I think he's mad the business/intelligence community group, his guys, that used to be a huge part of the GOP has effectively frozen out. They've had to join the democrats to get a say in policy.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Can you explain to me how mass surveillance and an election that went to the absolute wire that no matter the result would have left one side pissed off and unhappy, is somehow undermining democracy?

Being anti-state surveillance is a legitimate stance. Somehow linking that to the undermining of democracy is not.
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I don’t think I need to explain why mass surveillance undermines democracy. As for the 2000 election

Many tens of thousands of registered voters were purged from Florida’s voter rolls before the election in a deeply flawed process overseen by Republican secretary of state Katherine Harris. Florida’s deeply undemocratic laws barred felons from voting, and some of those purged really had committed felonies, but a great many had not. The low-end estimates about how many voters were illegally purged is about twice the number of votes by which Bush and Cheney allegedly won the state. High-end estimates put the number “11 or 20 times” higher than that.

Despite this, Florida’s remaining voters likely would have still handed Gore and Lieberman the state’s electoral votes, if not for a highly irregular vote-counting process in which Bush and Cheney were declared the winners by a Supreme Court decision, split on nakedly partisan lines, that stopped a recount.

Oh, and just like Trump’s failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election, Bush and Cheney’s successful electoral manipulation twenty years ago involved riots designed to shut down key points in the process. The January 6 riot briefly delayed the certification vote in the Senate. By contrast, the 2000 “Brooks Brothers riot” in Florida actually shut down the recount with the goal of giving more time to the Bush-Cheney team’s legal machinations. -
https://jacobin.com/2022/08/dick-cheney-liz-campaign-ad-january-6-gore-stolen-election
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The scene in the plaza outside the elections office that day was “volatile,” Toobin wrote. Two days earlier, county officials had decided to do a manual recount of more than 650,000 ballots. But as a deadline drew nearer, they decided to instead focus only on 10,750 ballots that had been rejected by computer tabulators.
That decision enraged Blakeman and his GOP colleagues, who claimed the three-person canvassing board was gaming the system to ensure Gore came out on top.

In the plaza, Rep. John Sweeney — a Republican from New York whom George W. Bush would later dub “Congressman Kick-Ass” for his ruthlessness — said the board had bowed to the “Democratic machine.” By the time Geller stepped off the elevator and into the elections office to grab a sample ballot, the Brooks Brothers riot was well underway with protesters shouting “voter fraud” and “let us in,” according to the New York Times.

“They were banging on windows,” he said. “People [in the office] were scared.” As an elections officer handed him the sample ballot — clearly labeled as such, he said — a GOP organizer with a clipboard started shouting: “He stole a ballot.” Geller quickly got back in the elevator. A group of protesters followed him.
“These people who had been kicking me were suddenly very quiet,” he said of the elevator ride. “When we got to the bottom, it started back up again. They were chasing me, and I was just trying to get to the exit.” One man in particular seemed to be “setting a pick” on Geller, he recalled. “He would jump in front of me and stop, so I’d run into him,” he said. At one point, the man threw himself into Geller before delivering a warning. “If you do that again, I’ll be forced to defend myself," Geller recalled the man saying.

The scene was captured in the Times and Tapper’s book. “The crowd is pulling at the cops, pulling at Geller,” Tapper wrote. “It’s insanity!” “Several angry Republicans, many of whom had acted as observers during the recount, surrounded ... Geller ... in the lobby of the building and accused him of slipping a ballot in his back pocket in the tabulation room,” wrote Dana Canedy and Dexter Filkins for the Times. "Soon, about a dozen sheriff’s deputies surrounded Mr. Geller, as the crowd, which had quickly grown to more than 100 people, yelled “cuff him” and “busted.”

Another Democratic official told reporters he was punched and kicked, as well.
When Geller told authorities what was going on, however, the deputies escorted him back upstairs to see the election officials, who confirmed his account, and then to his car.
He got home just in time to switch on the television and see the Miami-Dade canvassing board pull an extraordinary about-face, voting to abandon the manual recount altogether and potentially depriving the Gore campaign of hundreds, if not thousands, of votes they hoped to pick up in the county. All sides admitted the Brooks Brothers riot played a decisive role.

“This was perceived as not being an open and fair process,” said David Leahy, the elections supervisor and a board member, according to the Times. “That weighed heavily on our minds.”
“I think the board must have searched their hearts deeply and changed their position when they realized that the results would not be deemed legitimate,” Miguel DeGrandy, a GOP lawyer, told the same newspaper.

“We scared the crap out of them when we descended on them,” Blakeman recalled. “They knew what they were doing was breaking the rules and totally subjective, so they all met and decided to put an end to it.” Geller has a darker view of the demonstration that ended the recount.

“Anybody who says it was unrelated to the intimidation and violence floating around there is not telling the truth. I saw it with my own eyes," said Geller. "Violence, fear and physical intimidation affected the outcome of a lawful elections process. I think that’s pretty bad.”
Blakeman, who is now a political consultant and occasional Fox News pundit, acknowledged that history had not been kind to the Brooks Brothers rioters.

“They tried to paint it that we were thugs and were rewarded for our thuggery with prime positions in the White House," he said. “I’m a lawyer. I’m not a thug. We never broke the law. It wasn’t our intent to do that. It was our intent to enforce the law.
“We got some blowback afterwards, but so what? We won,” he said. “I became member of [George W. Bush]'s senior staff. That’s hardly a job for a thug.” -

https://www.washingtonpost.com/hist...ow-brooks-brothers-riot-killed-recount-miami/
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Beans said:
Fair, I don't either.

I think he's mad the business/intelligence community group, his guys, that used to be a huge part of the GOP has effectively frozen out. They've had to join the democrats to get a say in policy.
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Yeah it’s political party infighting and Sanders is dumb enough to fall for it.
 
Carolina Red said:
Falling for it or saying what is necessary to help the campaign against Trump?

I think it’s the latter
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True that is possible but who would be won over hearing Bernie essential lying about Cheney ? No one left wing will believe the shite Bernie is talking about in that video.

I tend to now view progressives like Sanders as very stupid. Which results in them making very bizarre arguments.
 
Kamala Harris tying herself to Biden's handling of Gaza strikes me as terrible messaging.

Anyone already distressed about the butchery Israel are inflicting on the Palestinians will be more aggravated.
Israel and Netty hate the old cnut and use every opportunity to make him look the fool.
The Christian fascists who support Israel are already lined up behind Trump.
And the Israel supporting Dems are already with Kamala.

It doesn't satisfy anyone not yet voting for Kamala and just means those who were waiting and hoping she would distance herself are less likely to vote. Even if she does want to go full Pokemon Joe genocide she shouldn't be advertising it this close to the election. They must see how crap the strategy is. At least take his fecking name off the press release.
 
Raoul said:
Mainly because Trump has been making consistent gains in all of the swing states over the past couple of weeks. See the "change from last week" column in Nate Silver's latest forecast below. When taken alongside the results of the highly rated NYT poll that actually has Trump up nationally, it suggests ominous clouds on the horizon for Dems.

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Trump has surprisingly been on a consistently upward trajectory since RFK pulled out and endorsed him, after which he gained a whopping 3 points in the national polling average.

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All of this has led to a widening gap in Silver's "who will win" probability chart, which actually had Harris in the lead as recently as a couple of weeks ago.

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That's not to say Harris can't win, but things are beginning to ominously trend towards Trump, and given that she wasn't a particularly strong candidate to begin with (see her 2019 results), the chances that she is going to regain her previous momentum are looking increasingly bleak by the day.
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From NY Times, Nov.8. 2016
 
Dear Europe,
Prepare for a second Trump term

Sincerely,
The Mediocre D party & their "meh" candidate Kamala


I hope I am wrong.
 
Just reading these 'What each candidate' needs to do on the debate stage tomorrow hot takes are annoying. They all pretty much everyone I have glanced at having my coffee at work today are some variation of Kamala must be perfect. And Trump just needs to not be outright racist or "boorish" as the Hill puts it in their article.

She has to be likeable have enough command of policy and what the independents or "gettable" voters are wanting looking for to reach them. She has to have no gaffes, while trump basically gets it baked into the mix that he will not have any clear policy knowledge as we all know. He wont have any details. He will lie obviously. But, they even in these look aheads bake that in as "trump being trump".
 
dumbo said:
Kamala Harris tying herself to Biden's handling of Gaza strikes me as terrible messaging.

Anyone already distressed about the butchery Israel are inflicting on the Palestinians will be more aggravated.
Israel and Netty hate the old cnut and use every opportunity to make him look the fool.
The Christian fascists who support Israel are already lined up behind Trump.
And the Israel supporting Dems are already with Kamala.

It doesn't satisfy anyone not yet voting for Kamala and just means those who were waiting and hoping she would distance herself are less likely to vote. Even if she does want to go full Pokemon Joe genocide she shouldn't be advertising it this close to the election. They must see how crap the strategy is. At least take his fecking name off the press release.
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Maybe i have missed this, but since running for President, when did she "tie herself" to Biden on Israel?

She didn't attend Netanyahu's address to congress and came out pretty strongly regarding the human suffering in Gaza.

Given that the Biden administration is trying to broker a ceasefire and a hostage deal, i'm not sure what you would expect her to come out and say because she wouldn't want to say something that may harm potential negotiations. Even though we know that Netanyahu is not an honest broker an seems more inclined to save his own skin and possibly drag this out and help to elect Trump, who would allow him to flatten Gaza. Gaza would be a great coastal spot for Trump's next resort and golf course!
 
Raoul said:
I hope you're wrong too, although its looking more likely by the day.
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Nothing surprising really.

1- Biden's age was clearly a problem since 2023, and many warned of it yet were attacked and ridiculed.
2- Harris was never an inspiring figure platform-wise and debate-wise, and whenever she won in CA it was with a narrower margin then one you'd expect from a D in Cali.
3- Biden's campaign sucked, so what did Harris do. Rehire his team!!
4- Shapiro should have been picked. Period. The VP matters only for his/her state, even if by 1% . 1% in a toss up, probably the tipping-point, state is crucial.

Of course 2 and 3 'cause of time-constraints and other factors which wouldn't have been the case if 1 never happened.
Still I argued before that regardless of all these factors, the Dems. should still have had an open convention and Shapiro had to be selected.

i hope Harris proves me wrong tomorrow; I highly doubt it though.
 
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gaffs said:
It seems like you are bed wetting after one bad NYT poll.
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No we're following many polls as well as news stories for past weeks, and they all tell the same story, She's the underdog.
 
gaffs said:
It seems like you are bed wetting after one bad NYT poll.
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The NYT poll is a coincident indicator to the general direction things have been going in for the past week or two. We need more polls to come out in the swing states to confirm whether all of this is simply Harris' surge petering out, or whether there's genuine momentum for Trump (or both).
 
Avatar said:
Nothing surprising really.

1- Biden's age was clearly a problem since 2023, and many warned of it yet were attacked and ridiculed.
2- Harris was never an inspiring figure platform-wise and debate-wise, and whenever she won in CA it was with a narrower margin then one you'd expect from a D in Cali.
3- Biden's campaign sucked, so what did Harris do. Rehire his team!!
4- Shapiro should have been picked. Period. The VP matters only for his/her state, even if by 1% . 1% in a toss up, probably the tipping-point, state is crucial.

Of course 2 and 3 'cause of time-constraints and other factors which wouldn't have been the case if 1 never happened.
Still I argued before that regardless of all these factors, the Dems. should still have had an open convention and Shapiro had to be selected.

i hope Harris proves me wrong tomorrow; I highly doubt it though.
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Agreed on the above. Moreover, she was a weak candidate to begin with and was simply selected because the Dem hierarchy wanted to anoint the next person in the pecking order instead of having a proper competition. That's of course not Harris' fault since she has wanted to be president for a long time. Its more so an indictment of how undemocratic the power structure of the Democratic party is. Obama and Sanders are the only ones who disrupted that in 08 and 16.
 
Raoul said:
The NYT poll is a coincident indicator to general direction things have been going in for the past week or two. We need more polls to come out in the swing states to confirm whether all of this is simply Harris' surge petering out, or whether there's genuine momentum for Trump (or both).
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I really do think people need to chill about the polls.

The sample size for these PA polls are circa 1000...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

6.9mil people voted in PA in 2020.

So 0.014% of the PA electorate is being polled.
 
gaffs said:
I really do think people need to chill about the polls.

The sample size for these PA polls are circa 1000...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

6.9mil people voted in PA in 2020.

So 0.014% of the PA electorate is being polled.
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This has nothing to do with what was being discussed in the preceding posts. PA is only one of 7 swing states where recent polling has moved towards Trump. It shouldn't be controversial to point this out as a caution that Harris' momentum has stalled.
 
Raoul said:
Agreed on the above. Moreover, she was a weak candidate to begin with and was simply selected because the Dem hierarchy wanted to anoint the next person in the pecking order instead of having a proper competition. That's of course not Harris' fault since she has wanted to be president for a long time. Its more so an indictment of how undemocratic the power structure of the Democratic party is. Obama and Sanders are the only ones who disrupted that in 08 and 16.
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She has weaknesses.

But what was the alternative? Let Biden continue?

Have a contested convention where others tear shreds off her, leaving the party potentially divided with only 80 days between the DNC and election day?

Sorry, but getting behind her was the only way and a damn site better than allowing Biden to continue.
 
Raoul said:
This has nothing to do with what was being discussed in the preceding posts. PA is only one of 7 swing states where recent polling has moved towards Trump. It shouldn't be controversial to point this out as a caution that Harris' momentum has stalled.
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You are right, and I think the important thing to note is that the campaign is not oblivious. They are not and never really were getting too far ahead of themselves with the media momentum narratives etc. Even with record money hauls and donations, they were always always stressing a tight race that will need on the ground grassroots focus. Especially battleground states.

They have never stopped stressing that they were the underdogs and never taking it for granted that there is A LOT of work to do and any way you go about it there has to be record turnout and continued pressure to reach every voter.
If we were seeing the campaign take anything for granted or get too far ahead of themselves cheering on momentum I would be worried more. But everything including the avalanche of campaign and Pac mailers are clearly stressing the challenges and need to volunteer, register to vote, get everyone you know to register and have a voting plan.

Meanwhile....Kid Rock is headlining the "star studded" Log Cabin Republican fundraiser
Kid Rock is taking on a starring role at a Log Cabin Republicans fundraiser — the “All Summer Long” singer is poised to headline an event this month in Nashville for the group, which represents LGBTQ conservatives. The 53-year-old performer will appear at “Red White & Rock” on Sep. 29, the Log Cabin Republicans announced over the weekend.

The group billed the fundraiser as a “star-studded concert uniting conservatives and celebrating American spirit.”

The Log Cabin Republicans have also been championed by Melania Trump: The former first lady hosted her second fundraiser in a year for the organization in July.
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Keep fighting the good fight for people that absolutely despise your existence.
 
gaffs said:
She has weaknesses.

But what was the alternative? Let Biden continue?

Have a contested convention where others tear shreds off her, leaving the party potentially divided with only 80 days between the DNC and election day?

Sorry, but getting behind her was the only way and a damn site better than allowing Biden to continue.
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You may be right. Given the limited timeline she was probably the most logical choice, although certainly not the strongest candidate by any measure - as in, if Biden had withdrawn 6 months earlier and the Dems had a proper competition, there's little to no chance Harris would've beaten the other lead Dem candidates. And if by chance she did, she would be well honed for battle against Trump, armed with clear and concise policies and with the confidence of plenty of public speaking and interviews behind her back. This version of Harris appears to be close to the 2019 version.
 
gaffs said:
Which other polls beyond yesterday's NYT Sienna are a cause for concern?

And what stories?
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Check individual polls from @PpollingNumbers or @Politics_Polls on twitter, or any other account you follow. It's a general trend going on since late August.

I won't go quoting each and every poll, so more practically, let's talk aggregates. Nate Silver's model shows Harris numbers worsening. From almost 4 percentage points ahead at national level weeks ago to 3.2 to 2.9 now. Her lead is down as well at the more crucial state level, almost all of them. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Now bear in mind the following:

1- Trump's effect: Trump beat his polls both in 2016 and 2020 by several percentage points in average. Biden won 'cause he had a comfortable lead. yet look at the numbers back then. Biden was ahead by 7-8 points nationally, he won by 4.5, in PA was ahead by 4.5 , won it by 1.3 , Trump was ahead in OH by 1 and won by 8!! If this repeats itself this year, it will be a landslide!!

2- Electoral college bias: The EC is biased against the democrats. That is, they can win the popular vote by 1 or 2 points nationally yet lose the more crucial EC. According to Silver Democrats need to be ahead by 4 or more percentage points to avoid such National/EC split. Harris again is ahead by just 2.9 and worsening. Biden survived by being 7 points ahead.

Even if 1 doesn't happen this year, fingers crossed, Harris still has to deal with 2, and with her declining numbers. But she was never an inspiring or amazing debater/orator.
 
Raoul said:
This has nothing to do with what was being discussed in the preceding posts. PA is only one of 7 swing states where recent polling has moved towards Trump. It shouldn't be controversial to point this out as a caution that Harris' momentum has stalled.
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I realise the NYT is a national poll, but that sample size is 1700. Still a slither of the population. And i would personally take far more stock in state polls at this point.

The Harris momentum may well have "stalled". But there is only so many voters up for grabs. She was never going to keep going up and up in the polls until election day.

And besides, the last NYT poll that was Biden v Trump was July 22nd and Trump was up by 6 points. So lets be thankful we have a candidate that hasn't got one foot in the grave.

Tomorrow's debate may be the last remaining major milestone in the campaign. If Harris underperforms, then I think its safe to start bedwetting.
 
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