2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Republicans have jumped on a story about Haitian immigrants eating animals in Springfield, Ohio. Needless to say that story is not corroborated by reliable sources. But that didn't deter Vance from mentioning it or Ted Cruz from this tweet.

 
Trump just needs to be relatively composed and it will be seen as a draw for him by default, along partisan lines, apparently nobody gives a shit if he doesn't have real answers to questions, or the fact that he lies probably about half of the times he speaks.

Debates spends like 5 minutes on each topic, so its impossible to fact-check Trump, unless moderators spends literal hours extra going through his nonsense, which nobody has time for.
 
Morty_ said:
if he doesn't have real answers to questions, or the fact that he lies probably about half of the times he speaks.
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If the democrats didn't insist on a fact checker this time than they don't deserve better.
Trump were lying dozens of times in the first debate. The moderators didn't intervene. It's a disgrace.
Ideally both candidates should get dinner electric shocks for every lie they tell. Like Sean Connery and Klaus Maria Brandauer in never say never when playing the video game.

On a serious note. Will there be any facts checks e.g. overlays like "this statement is false and isn't backed by facts"?
 
Morty_ said:
Trump just needs to be relatively composed and it will be seen as a draw for him by default, along partisan lines, apparently nobody gives a shit if he doesn't have real answers to questions, or the fact that he lies probably about half of the times he speaks.

Debates spends like 5 minutes on each topic, so its impossible to fact-check Trump, unless moderators spends literal hours extra going through his nonsense, which nobody has time for.
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We will see tomorrow, and I do agree that Trump is held to a very low bar. The fact the he lies in nearly everything he says means that it just taken as a given now.

But let's remember, he was pretty poor when debating Biden in June. There is plenty of opportunity for Harris to pierce the untruths that he has been trotting out for years. Biden make a lot of valid points, but it was hard to take notice of anything he said as he was mumbling along and losing his train of thought.
 
B. Munich said:
If the democrats didn't insist on a fact checker this time than they don't deserve better.
Trump were lying dozens of times in the first debate. The moderators didn't intervene. It's a disgrace.
Ideally both candidates should get dinner electric shocks for every lie they tell. Like Sean Connery and Klaus Maria Brandauer in never say never when playing the video game.

On a serious note. Will there be any facts checks e.g. overlays like "this statement is false and isn't backed by facts"?
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How does that work? Do you have the chyron at the bottom flashing "lies" when Trumps speaks.

It is upto the other candidate to counter the lies, not the moderator.

If Harris has been preparing as well as has been reported, she is ready with comebacks for the lies while attacking his record. I really think she will get under his skin.
 
Raoul said:
Every candidate will be held to a different standard to what Trump will be. This is not something new since it was also the case in 16 and 20.
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So why does Harris have to be perfect then? Why do you hold her to a different standard?
 
GiddyUp said:
So why does Harris have to be perfect then? Why do you hold her to a different standard?
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She’s being held to the same standard any Dem would be held to, just as Trump will only be held to his usual low standard that he has set for himself over the past decade. Comparing them based on two radically different standards is futile.
 
Raoul said:
She’s being held to the same standard any Dem would be held to, just as Trump will only be held to his usual low standard that he has set for himself over the past decade. Comparing them based on two radically different standards is futile.
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So what's the standard to be president?
 
B. Munich said:
If the democrats didn't insist on a fact checker this time than they don't deserve better.
Trump were lying dozens of times in the first debate. The moderators didn't intervene. It's a disgrace.
Ideally both candidates should get dinner electric shocks for every lie they tell. Like Sean Connery and Klaus Maria Brandauer in never say never when playing the video game.

On a serious note. Will there be any facts checks e.g. overlays like "this statement is false and isn't backed by facts"?
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Fact checking happens after, not during the debate.
 
GiddyUp said:
So what's the standard to be president?
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It's irrelevant, Trump has built a powerful cult of personality around himself and his base is permanently fired up. That's why any candidate running against him needs to have an almost flawless campaign, to build up as much voter enthusiasm as they can.
 
roseguy64 said:
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What a weird line of reasoning. It's equally likely that they have some cash to spare and see those areas potentially flipping. But no, bad internal polling it is.

There was a predictable rebound after Harris' surge in the polls when the Trump campaign reacted and were able to push back a little. Besides NC becoming competitive again, I don't see anything else significantly changing from last month. 7 states are game. Whoever gets the Rust Belt wins. If those states split, it will be a probably contested photo finish state by state.
 
gaffs said:
Maybe i have missed this, but since running for President, when did she "tie herself" to Biden on Israel?
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At the DNC the wording was very much a "Tim Walz and I" platform. Tim and I want to protect women, Tim and I oppose project 2024 etc. Except when it came to the Middle East it was all "Me and Joe are working tirelessly for Israel", "Me and Joe gonna bring them hostages home".



https://kamalaharris.com/issues/
This was yesterday. So I guess you did miss it.

Biden's hollowed out corpse visage, looms over Palestinian children like the spectre of death. When they gave him his flowers at the convention it would have been more appropriate to attatch a eulogy.
 
berbatrick said:
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These are brutal numbers (and I’m not questioning or blaming anyone here). Just saying how they look for Harris.

EDIT: If I’m Harris, I would also keep eye on the Muslim community in Northern Virginia. This community is pissed off. While not as big as the one in Michigan, it’s still sizable, and I wouldn’t take Virginia for granted. I just wouldn’t.
 
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The data really backs up what a terrible strategy it is for the Dems to keep twerking for Israel.
 
Blood Mage said:
The data really backs up what a terrible strategy it is for the Dems to keep twerking for Israel.
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It’s beyond that. It feels that the administration is doing nothing to stop this war. We hear every day something like “the administration is working tirelessly to end the war, release the hostages, relieve the suffering of the people of Gaza…” but nothing then happens. Week after week, month after month… almost a year in.
 
I'm sure the fair and balanced media will be quick to correct that lie.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
It’s beyond that. It feels that the administration is doing nothing to stop this war. We hear every day something like “the administration is working tirelessly to end the war, release the hostages, relieve the suffering of the people of Gaza…” but nothing then happens. Week after week, month after month… almost a year in.
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Obviously I agree to some extent...but surely you should be blaming Netanyahu?

I can easily imagine a world where Harris' own views are simply irrelevant right now. She is not the President, and she can't be seen to undermine his 'strategy' during the conflict.

As for any voter stupid enough to vote for Stein: great job, next time just spoil your ballot and stop giving Russia a win.
 
Beachryan said:
Obviously I agree to some extent...but surely you should be blaming Netanyahu?

I can easily imagine a world where Harris' own views are simply irrelevant right now. She is not the President, and she can't be seen to undermine his 'strategy' during the conflict.

As for any voter stupid enough to vote for Stein: great job, next time just spoil your ballot and stop giving Russia a win.
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Having shit policies, like in Israel, bring that, the only ones losing the elections are Harris via Biden, so the ones to blame are them to lose those voters. If after 3 months in Gaza the US would said enough! like Reagan and other POTUS in history in certain historical moments, not many Democrat American jews would change sides or vote for Stein as much as Muslims seems they are doing, besides doing the right think not being an active part of a genocide

Gaza problem had gone much too far for much too long and the US involvement had been 100% backing up Israel economically, with arms and institutionally, only the Ds to blame losing these voters, so are Biden and Harris giving Russia a win
 
Beachryan said:
Obviously I agree to some extent...but surely you should be blaming Netanyahu?
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We should be blaming the administration and campaign since they are the ones claiming they are "working tirelessly" for something and failing to deliver it. If they did deliver we'd be expected to praise them so the opposite should be true.
 




The Harris campaign wouldn't even need to outrightly condemn Israel to get a lot more people onside, just grow a backbone, support their own US citizens and tax payers, reaffirm international legal standards and tell Israel that with all that financial and political support comes real rersponsibilities to not act the complete cnut.

Who knows if a significant number of likely voters exist amongst the Undecided and other reluctant voters, and could be won over but when Donald Trump and JD Vance are at the gates ready to feck everything up, then doing the bare minimum morally and strategically should be well within the reach of the Dems.

Biden is a lost cause but if Ronald Reagan could do it over Lebanon then Harris should be able to fecking do something now.
 
What's with the Reagan references? I would not think the administration that cemented the Republican party as pro-israel, oversaw the largest allowance of changes to Israeli foreign aid to be spent on military equipment, established the Israeli/US relationship as an unquestionable interlinked strategic security alliance and signed a treaty stating US security and Isreali security is the same thing - mid intifada - would be the poster-boy for handling US Israeli relations.
 
VorZakone said:
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Are we seeing signs the EC vote will favour Trump a bit less this time round? With the NYT/Sienna national poll spelling doom for Harris but the swing state polling largely still looking good for her, the difference between the popular vote and the EC vote might be slimmer this time round, due to both candidates getting a stronger hold on their bases while being less competitive among each other’s key voters. Not convinced the common logic that the Dem candidate will need a 3/4 % popular vote margin to win will hold true this time.
 
dumbo said:




The Harris campaign wouldn't even need to outrightly condemn Israel to get a lot more people onside, just grow a backbone, support their own US citizens and tax payers, reaffirm international legal standards and tell Israel that with all that financial and political support comes real rersponsibilities to not act the complete cnut.

Who knows if a significant number of likely voters exist amongst the Undecided and other reluctant voters, and could be won over but when Donald Trump and JD Vance are at the gates ready to feck everything up, then doing the bare minimum morally and strategically should be well within the reach of the Dems.

Biden is a lost cause but if Ronald Reagan could do it over Lebanon then Harris should be able to fecking do something now.
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All I can say about things like this is that her campaign 100% know this too. It's not like it's some new information that they're missing.

What you, I and everyone else is not privvy to is the actual discussions happening where it matters.

As a simpleton on the outside, I have absolutely no idea why there hasn't been a ceasefire. From the purely US perspective, it is in Biden's best interest and it is in Harris' best interest. Therefore, I have to assume that the reason it isn't happening is not a US issue, but rather one between Hamas and Israel.

I just find it extremely unlikely that given the importance of the election, the very well-known issue that the lack of a ceasefire presents and the very smart people working on the Harris campaign that Harris is not doing all she can to get it sorted. Why wouldn't she?

I still find posters on the caf absurdly naive in their belief that if not for the US Hamas and Israel would have settled this.
 
Avatar said:
Best poll for Harris in the past couple of weeks. However, being a single poll in a single state going against the current trend it should be treated as an Outlier, for now.
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It’s literally the opposite













If anything, the Siena and Pew polls that (totally accidentally) Silver is championing are outliers in a slew of polls that depict a tight race at battleground level and a D+3/4 edge nationally, basically 2020 redux. Siena has Harris winning 18-30 by only 8 points and a sample of R+3. I’ll eat a bag of dicks come November if either one is true, especially the latter, no general electorate in a presidential election has been R+3 for 40 years.
 
gaffs said:
It is upto the other candidate to counter the lies, not the moderator.
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How? Trump spouts dozens of lies and Harris can't even interrupt him as the microphones are muted.
Trump needs to be interrupted immediately when he tells a lie. The last format allowed him to speak for several minutes telling multiple lies without Biden being to interrupt him.

It's possible to correct and highlight a few lies but Trump is telling endless lies. So frustrating.
 
B. Munich said:
How? Trump spouts dozens of lies and Harris can't even interrupt him as the microphones are muted.
Trump needs to be interrupted immediately when he tells a lie. The last format allowed him to speak for several minutes telling multiple lies without Biden being to interrupt him.

It's possible to correct and highlight a few lies but Trump is telling endless lies. So frustrating.
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There was one instance of a moderator fact checking a Romney’s lie in the 2012 2nd debate, one, and Fox spent days crying foul over it. With Trump, it would be about 40 at the least, and the optics would be the moderator ganging up on him with Harris to the average low info voter. No network is brave enough to make that call, if they want to to begin with.
 
B. Munich said:
How? Trump spouts dozens of lies and Harris can't even interrupt him as the microphones are muted.
Trump needs to be interrupted immediately when he tells a lie. The last format allowed him to speak for several minutes telling multiple lies without Biden being to interrupt him.

It's possible to correct and highlight a few lies but Trump is telling endless lies. So frustrating.
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American voters expect politicians to lie. Calling Trump out for lies is largely ineffective.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
It’s literally the opposite













If anything, the Siena and Pew polls that (totally accidentally) Silver is championing are outliers in a slew of polls that depict a tight race at battleground level and a D+3/4 edge nationally, basically 2020 redux. Siena has Harris winning 18-30 by only 8 points and a sample of R+3. I’ll eat a bag of dicks come November if either one is true, especially the latter, no general electorate in a presidential election has been R+3 for 40 years.
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Morning consult is an ok pollster at best. It was graded B by Silver if chatgpt is correct, and is currently ranked number 116 in Silverless fivethirtyeight this year: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Big Village is crap (Grade C)

The rest of the polls you posted are not reassuring, rather worrying. Harris being 2 or 3 ahead nationally is not good enough because of, again, the Electoral college bias against the Dems. Biden was ahead by 7 and 8. It is not 2020 redux at all. The race wasn't that tight back then.

Harris still has a chance of course, a tight race can go either way, but Trump beat his polls twice making up for the gap with Clinton at state-level, and losing several states to Biden at a margin way narrower than predicted by the polls. If this repeats itself Harris is doomed, if not it's currently around 50/50.
 
dumbo said:




The Harris campaign wouldn't even need to outrightly condemn Israel to get a lot more people onside, just grow a backbone, support their own US citizens and tax payers, reaffirm international legal standards and tell Israel that with all that financial and political support comes real rersponsibilities to not act the complete cnut.

Who knows if a significant number of likely voters exist amongst the Undecided and other reluctant voters, and could be won over but when Donald Trump and JD Vance are at the gates ready to feck everything up, then doing the bare minimum morally and strategically should be well within the reach of the Dems.

Biden is a lost cause but if Ronald Reagan could do it over Lebanon then Harris should be able to fecking do something now.
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Dems would rather throw an election, than risk pissing off AIPAC. With the GOP its easy, their default stance is pure unabated and unwavering defence of Israel, even if they went nuclear and murdered every single Palestinian man, woman and child, their base wouldn't in any way be deterred. With the Dems however they have to contend with a sizeable base of voters who are clearly and rightly peeved off with the US' enabling of Israeli crimes, and the Dems are instead riskily banking on them reluctantly getting on board out of fear of the alternative, all because they can't be seen not to twerk for Israel. Best they can do is wheel out the superficial rhetoric about 'working tirelessly' to return the hostages, securing a ceasefire, increasing flow of aid blah blah. Just superficial soundbites hoping it would be enough of a bone to throw at disgruntled voters.

There's a lot of noise about Russian interference in US elections and rightly so, but the country has been plagued by Israel's stranglehold over their politics for far longer.
 
Avatar said:
Morning consult is an ok pollster at best. It was graded B by Silver if chatgpt is correct, and is currently ranked number 116 in Silverless fivethirtyeight this year: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Big Village is crap (Grade C)

The rest of the polls you posted are not reassuring, rather worrying. Harris being 2 or 3 ahead nationally is not good enough because of, again, the Electoral college bias against the Dems. Biden was ahead by 7 and 8. It is not 2020 redux at all. The race wasn't that tight back then.

Harris still has a chance of course, a tight race can go either way, but Trump beat his polls twice making up for the gap with Clinton at state-level, and losing several states to Biden at a margin way narrower than predicted by the polls. If this repeats itself Harris is doomed, if not it's currently around 50/50.
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I can quote another 10 polls in the last 2 weeks, which would be redundant. Anyway, from my point of view, what has happened since the convention, polling wise, is:

1) A deluge of known, low quality right wing polls aimed at flooding the zone and turn the narrative
2) A dearth of high quality state polls (understandable, those are expensive to do)
3) Static or a slight uptick in Trump’s national number due to RFK’s team up
4) A very wild swing of number even between renowned pollsters due to their sample/weighting. ABC/Ipsos 2 weeks ago have Harris +6 with LV with a D+6 sample, NYT/Siena have her down one with R +3. The average, however, is pretty steady high 3s-low 4s.

As for the rest of your concern, I don’t subscribe to the idea that just because polling overestimated D vote share twice against Trump that it means they will do the same this cycle, and we should just automatically subtract a few points from Harris as a safety measure. Because a) that’s not how stats work and b) we have plenty of evidence to the contrary that polling in general have swung the other way since Dobbs and overestimate Republicans, even Trump underperformed his own numbers in the Republican primaries. Every other metrics, from predictor like the Washington primary result (https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-kamala-harriss-coalition-changes-the-race-for-congress), fundraising number, ad buys, campaign activities point to a tight race with the Trump campaign zeroing in a PA+NC+GA narrow path at exactly 270 EV. It’s certainly not the picture of a tied national number if we do the subtraction exercise because in that case you would see them campaigning in Minnesota and Virginia, not withdrawing from NH. It is 2020 redux on the actual ground, even back then Democratic pollsters and surrogates have repeatedly cautioned against rosy public polling, Bernie Sanders went on TV to warn about election night early Trump lead due to Democratic mail in votes, it’s all on the record.

And I agree, D+3/4 is not safe, Biden at 4.5 would have lost with 7 million votes margin if 42000 swing states voters voted the other way, but it’s the reality we live in. Obama’s blowout in 2008 was +7, in a much less divided electorate and every headwinds going against Republicans, you simply won’t do better than +4/5 at best nowadays. The electorate is so baked in that we end up praying that a few million voters in a bunch of states vote the way we want every 4 years, but it would be the state of play for any candidate in a competitive race regardless due to hyper partisanship, so fretting about it from an imprecise tool as polling is a pointless exercise, much less off a single poll. Going forward, the only way to avoid this is the Nat. Vote Interstate Compact, because a Constitutional Amendment isn’t happening and demographic change in the Midwest means 2016 will become the default more often than not.
 
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