2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

WI_Red said:
Unless something catastrophic happens I guarantee Harris wins WI.
Click to expand...

Arguably the most racist out of all the swing-states? I sure hope you are right.

What makes you so sure, btw?
 
calodo2003 said:
All the swing states are within the margin of error, that is a hell of a lot better than the Biden aftermath.

When was the last time a presidential candidate had a 70% - 80% chance to win? I cannot remember.
Click to expand...
You’re repeating what I said: she’s doing better than Biden.

Obama has a much higher chance than 50%, and so was Clinton.
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia....ity-of-65-7-that-obama-will-win-the-election/

Biden had almost 90% in 2020:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

She has clearly put us back in the game, but let’s not pretend that she’s a strong contender. I hope that you see the distinction.

(All of this is of course ex-ante; we will see what happens).
 
ManUtd1999 said:
You’re repeating what I said: she’s doing better than Biden.

Obama has a much higher chance than 50%, and so was Clinton. Biden had almost 90% in 2020:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

She has clearly put us back in the game, but let’s not pretend that she’s a strong contender. I hope that you see the distinction.

(All of this is of course ex-ante; we will see what happens).
Click to expand...
Biden was at 90% just days before the election, what was he three months out in early August? That figure is a tad disingenuous.

The undeniable groundswell of support makes her a rather strong candidate currently. She will also be having August & early September focused almost entirely on her campaign & how it navigates favorable waters (VP pick, convention, debate v. Trump or an empty chair) so, barring a calamity, there's nothing in the way for her to keep the momentum going.
 
calodo2003 said:
The undeniable groundswell of support makes her a rather strong candidate currently. She will also be having August & early September focused almost entirely on her campaign & how it navigates favorable waters (VP pick, convention, debate v. Trump or an empty chair) so, barring a calamity, there's nothing in the way for her to keep the momentum going.
Click to expand...
I pray to God that you’re right.
 
Morty_ said:
Arguably the most racist out of all the swing-states? I sure hope you are right.

What makes you so sure, btw?
Click to expand...
A couple of things:

1. Dems have won every major statewide election since 2020 except for Senator Dumbfecks reelection and that was a close one. The lack of support Barnes got from the national Dem committee was almost as bad as the racist shit Johnson’s campaign used in terms of causing the loss.

2. Baldwin is on the ballot and is very popular, it should help drive turnout.

3. WisDems is a top tier local group and is phenomenal at energizing voters. Ben Winkler is a great state party leader.

4. There is a lot of momentum after the election of Protasiewicz to the State SC and the subsequent neutering of the audacious gerrymandering for the state legislature. There is a decent chance the Dems make it close, if not gain, control of at least one house in the state legislature.

5. And finally, it really comes down to turnout. If it is high on Madison and, especially, Milwaukee then it is game over. I would expect a lot of energy being put into Milwaukee.
 
WI_Red said:
Unless something catastrophic happens I guarantee Harris wins WI.
Click to expand...
We live in a solid blue state. My partner is in the progressive turnout project and she is in the process of writing 200 postcards to registered democrats who have not voted regularly in the past and who live WI urging them to vote. It's a big nationwide grassroots initiative and is aimed at all the swing states and trying to get the democrat base to turn out and vote. It doesn't suggest who to vote for, just trying to increase turnout among likely democrat voters.
 


Something must have changed in a big way in the eldctorate, if Kamala is a coin toss in the electoral college, by leading it by just 1,4 nationally.

Is this all republicans making inroads in New York , California, further solidifying Florida, and making basically no gains anywhere else, like in 2022?

Biden had an above 4 point national win, and didn't really win by much in the states that mattered.
 
Morty_ said:


Something must have changed in a big way in the eldctorate, if Kamala is a coin toss in the electoral college, by leading it by just 1,4 nationally.

Is this all republicans making inroads in New York , California, further solidifying Florida, and making basically no gains anywhere else, like in 2022?

Biden had an above 4 point national win, and didn't really win by much in the states that mattered.
Click to expand...

His win probability was at 89% based on Silver's poll. But he barely won. Similarly, Clinton had a win probability of around 70% when she lost.

Most likely, Silver's polls have a small Democrat bias. If polls show this as a coin toss by end of October, I think that Trump will win.
 
Revan said:
His win probability was at 89% based on Silver's poll. But he barely won. Similarly, Clinton had a win probability of around 70% when she lost.

Most likely, Silver's polls have a small Democrat bias. If polls show this as a coin toss by end of October, I think that Trump will win.
Click to expand...

I'm sure it will increase further, if things goes normal for the foreseeable future.

That said, i do hope there is a connection to 2022.
 
Morty_ said:


Something must have changed in a big way in the eldctorate, if Kamala is a coin toss in the electoral college, by leading it by just 1,4 nationally.

Is this all republicans making inroads in New York , California, further solidifying Florida, and making basically no gains anywhere else, like in 2022?

Biden had an above 4 point national win, and didn't really win by much in the states that mattered.
Click to expand...


Silver is supportive Harris selecting Shapiro, so maybe he thinks that will help her in PA, and thus improve her chances of a national EC win. He could also be factoring in the likelihood that GA and NV could be in play, which would be an insurance policy for Harris should she lose one of the rust belt states.
 
Revan said:
His win probability was at 89% based on Silver's poll. But he barely won. Similarly, Clinton had a win probability of around 70% when she lost.

Most likely, Silver's polls have a small Democrat bias. If polls show this as a coin toss by end of October, I think that Trump will win.
Click to expand...
I mean..the probability does not predict the winning margin in votes cast. Also I suppose you are looking at the deltas in the swing states that would indicate Biden "barely" winning. I assume the model assigned such a high probability because of the multiple ways to victory Biden had. At the end it was a significant difference in the EC.
 
Also, all of these prediction model are incapable of predicting turnout, which at this point is far more important than the standard "who will you vote for" polls.
 
Latest TRIP podcast seems to think there's a small chance Trump drops out. Personally can't see it.
 
Berbasbullet said:
Latest TRIP podcast seems to think there's a small chance Trump drops out. Personally can't see it.
Click to expand...
Even if some of the bigger donors were putting pressure on him (which I haven't seen any indication of), he's way too much of narcissist to drop out. Plus, his base still worships him, and he wants to get elected so he can get out of the federal court cases. I just don't see the logic.

I'd say replacing J.D. Vance is not an unthinkable scenario, but Trump dropping out is a fantasy.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Even if some of the bigger donors were putting pressure on him (which I haven't seen any indication of), he's way too much of narcissist to drop out. Plus, his base still worships him, and he wants to get elected so he can get out of the federal court cases. I just don't see the logic.

I'd say replacing J.D. Vance is not an unthinkable scenario, but Trump dropping out is a fantasy.
Click to expand...
Would it even make sense for Reps to want that? Surely his cult following is the best chance they have to win the election
 
hellhunter said:
Would it even make sense for Reps to want that? Surely his cult following is the best chance they have to win the election
Click to expand...
Probably not, no. They've firmly made their shitty Trump brand bed, and now they have to lie in it. If they replaced Trump with some generic Republican in the Mitt Romney mold, I'm sure the turnout among the MAGA base would be severely impacted.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Probably not, no. They've firmly made their shitty Trump brand bed, and now they have to lie in it. If they replaced Trump with some generic Republican in the Mitt Romney mold, I'm sure the turnout among the MAGA base would be severely impacted.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure replacing Trump would ensure a truly massive win for Harris, and probably for the Dems in Congress as well. They had several chances to dump Trump, but they're too fecking coward so now they can live with their choices. Of course, if he wins then the world gets to live with their choices too.
 
Trump is never going to drop out, even if the money dries up. We can't forget that good Harris polls right now still have Trump and favourite for the EC. I do think however that Vance could be in his last few days if a few more polls see him tanking the ticket.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.