2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

[Mike Smalling]

On Shapiro, it's absolutely horsesh*t to grasp at things he wrote at college 30 years ago to try and prove your point. As bad as the situation in Gaza is what it has done to some people's reasoning ability is incredible. You'd never do that for other issues. A 20 year old is allowed to learn and change their mind. Then backing it up with deliberately taken-out-of-context statements to try and 'prove' your point is equally disingenous. If you have reached the point on Gaza where literally no democratic policitician is good enough for you, then maybe just stop looking for it, as it'll only disappoint you. It's perfectly rational and justifiable to make it the defining issue to you - that's fine - but I think we should just park the 'no Democrat is anti-Israel enough' stuff on this thread, because it is a fact, it is proven and the race will continue regardless.

From the perspective of the progressives, it isn't even just the Israel stuff with Shapiro. You could leave that totally aside, and they will still prefer someone else. First of all, Beshear and in particular Walz are seen as more pro-labor than Shapiro. Both of them walked the picket line with UAW, and Shawn Fain has gone on CNN and said that Beshear and Walz are his unions top picks. Josh Shapiro also supports charter schools, which is really unpopular with teachers unions and with the left in general. And then there is the story about a potential coverup of a MeToo scandal with one of Shapiro's top aides. It was settled out of court and the aide resigned, but the story is there.

This (and yes, also the Israel stuff) is why leftists fear that a Shapiro pick can deflate the excitement and good vibes currently surrounding the Harris campaign. I've seen some commentators advocating for Beshear, as a pick that rocks the boat the least, but still has Midwest appeal. That being said I think you shouldn't overestimate the impact of the VP candidate pick. The home state advantage has historically been minor, and policy wise the VP has to get in line with the actual candidate anyway.

 

[Beachryan]

From the perspective of the progressives, it isn't even just the Israel stuff with Shapiro. You could leave that totally aside, and they will still prefer someone else. First of all, Beshear and in particular Walz are seen as more pro-labor than Shapiro. Both of them walked the picket line with UAW, and Shawn Fain has gone on CNN and said that Beshear and Walz are his unions top picks. Josh Shapiro also supports charter schools, which is really unpopular with teachers unions and with the left in general. And then there is the story about a potential coverup of a MeToo scandal with one of Shapiro's top aides. It was settled out of court and the aide resigned, but the story is there.

Agree with all of that. Not pro Shapiro, just think digging up college papers should be below people.

 

[Shez]

Agree with all of that. Not pro Shapiro, just think digging up college papers should be below people.

Par for the course for how politics are done nowadays - people tend to go digging. Al Frankens images, and Trudeau’s black face pop straight into mind

 

[Mike Smalling]

Agree with all of that. Not pro Shapiro, just think digging up college papers should be below people.

As an argument to completely dismiss a politican, sure. As something to bring up and question them over, I don't see it as a problem. Give them a chance to correct their position.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

A 20 year old is allowed to learn and change their mind.

Has he?

 

[That_Bloke]

Has he criticized Israel? He has criticized Netanyahu, but I don't know what he had in mind specifically.

He has not.

Netanyahu is just the convenient tree that hides the entire forest and an easy target. His concerns are more about Israel's current disastrous international image under Netanyahu's regime than the Palestinians' suffering.

For anyone thinking that that he holds a kinder view about the Palestinians and truly believes in a two state solution, I have a bridge to sell you. His comments on the student protests tell you everything you need to know.

The same goes for Harris. She won't lift a single finger for a two state solution if she's elected. All that she wants, is a quick end to an embarrassing matter that puts the US under the spotlight and could possibly drag it into a regional war.

Still a major improvement of the senile piece of shit, but the bar was very, very low.

 

[Beachryan]

As an argument to completely dismiss a politican, sure. As something to bring up and question them over, I don't see it as a problem. Give them a chance to correct their position.

I don't disagree with that either, but random tweets isn't quite the same thing. I'm sure he camn articulate his position now and will do.

 

[Mike Smalling]

I don't disagree with that either, but random tweets isn't quite the same thing. I'm sure he camn articulate his position now and will do.

Random tweets is the law of the land now. We've gotten weeks of memes out of a random tweet about J.D. Vance's couch fecking. The tweets giveth, and the tweets taketh away.

 

[Krakenzero]

Politics had been gradually becoming showbiz since the Clinton era at least, and social media plus cost per click had only accelerated the process. And showbiz is about novelty and scoops, not gravitas.

 

[maniak]

Agree with all of that. Not pro Shapiro, just think digging up college papers should be below people.

I think it's good he's confronted with it. Was he talking bs then or does he still agree with it? It's fair to ask.

 

[ManUtd1999]

So, what if, just what if, Shapiro is the nominee and Harris doesn’t win PA? Not that it’s likely, but it’s not impossible either.

Then what’s the advantage of having him as a running mate?

I’m just not sure that the upside of picking Shapiro outweighs the downside.

 

[Idxomer]

https://today.yougov.com/politics/a...ut-kamala-harris-running-mates-vice-president

"Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, 25% say a pro-Palestine vice presidential candidate would be good, while 11% say it would be bad. 13% say a pro-Israel running mate would be good, and 28% say being pro-Israel would be bad".

The only thing worse than being pro-Israel is being old.

 

[africanspur]

On the media, just look and see who owns and runs these companies now, and imagine what matters to them. CNN's new head basically said he doesn't care about truth, facts or newsworthiness, his job is to deliver revenues. Ditto almost every source. And an outrageous Trump headline just pays more than calm, factual reporting. Even the BBC are masters of it "Harris may have been lovechild of paedophile and alligator" claims Trump. Just asking questions here.

On Shapiro, it's absolutely horsesh*t to grasp at things he wrote at college 30 years ago to try and prove your point. As bad as the situation in Gaza is what it has done to some people's reasoning ability is incredible. You'd never do that for other issues. A 20 year old is allowed to learn and change their mind. Then backing it up with deliberately taken-out-of-context statements to try and 'prove' your point is equally disingenous. If you have reached the point on Gaza where literally no democratic policitician is good enough for you, then maybe just stop looking for it, as it'll only disappoint you. It's perfectly rational and justifiable to make it the defining issue to you - that's fine - but I think we should just park the 'no Democrat is anti-Israel enough' stuff on this thread, because it is a fact, it is proven and the race will continue regardless.

An Arab or Muslim politician who was running for office and had articles from 20 or 30 years ago saying Jews cannot make peace would 100% be pulled up in America and be questioned on those comments.

With respect, for quite a long time now, your approach to the discourse around the conflict has been to, in a manner showing your frustration, trying to mould the conversation to a tone more of your liking or shut it down entirely when it annoyingly gets in the way of things you personally find much more important.

Which is neither helpful nor particularly possible for such an emotive topic and one that many people do find very important.

 

[Rado_N]

So, what if, just what if, Shapiro is the nominee and Harris doesn’t win PA? Not that it’s likely, but it’s not impossible either.

Then what’s the advantage of having him as a running mate?

I’m just not sure that the upside of picking Shapiro outweighs the downside.

Is the downside his Israel position?

Not dismissing that, just curious if I’ve missed anything else.

 

[ManUtd1999]

Is the downside his Israel position?

Not dismissing that, just curious if I’ve missed anything else.

Yes. He looks too pro Israel than the average Democrat. His past and present positions could hurt Harris.

This issue is more important to Democrats than some people here seem to realize. I heard more about it than inflation.

 

[Raoul]

So, what if, just what if, Shapiro is the nominee and Harris doesn’t win PA? Not that it’s likely, but it’s not impossible either.

Then what’s the advantage of having him as a running mate?

I’m just not sure that the upside of picking Shapiro outweighs the downside.

If she loses PA, there's a very high likelihood she will lose the election and Donald Trump will return to the WH. If Trump loses PA, there's also a significant chance he will lose the election so that should be the most important consideration.

Beyond that, there is no other downside to picking Shapiro. He's a popular governor, who many were tipping to be on the shortlist to be the next President (along with Newsom and Whitmer).

 

[ManUtd1999]

If she loses PA, there's a very high likelihood she will lose the election and Donald Trump will return to the WH. If Trump loses PA, there's also a significant chance he will lose the election so that should be the most important consideration.

Beyond that, there is no other downside to picking Shapiro. He's a popular governor, who many were tipping to be on the shortlist to be the next President (along with Newsom and Whitmer).

I understand, but he’s too risky of a choice. We need to at least realize that instead of being shocked on election night.

 

[africanspur]

Is the downside his Israel position?

Not dismissing that, just curious if I’ve missed anything else.

There are other candidates who I think are seen by the left on the democrat party as more pro union.

There's also some controversy from them about his policies on charter schools and a settlement one of his aides had who was accused of sexual harassment (though not sure how much Shapiro knew about this).

 

[calodo2003]

Yes. He looks too pro Israel than the average Democrat. His past and present positions could hurt Harris.

This issue is more important to Democrats than some people here seem to realize. I heard more about it than inflation.

What demographic were you speaking to?

 

[ManUtd1999]

What demographic were you speaking to?

1. Suburban whites
2. Young voters of all backgrounds
3. Arab voters in Northern Virginia and Muslim voters in VA and MD.
4. Other minorities who have no connection to the Middle East.

Now, I expect that most will vote for Harris no matter who is the VP pick, but Shapiro doesn’t make people feel comfortable. In Maryland, it wouldn’t matter, but it could matter in the crucial states.

 

[calodo2003]

1. Suburban whites
2. Young voters of all backgrounds
3. Arab voters in Northern Virginia and Muslim voters in VA and MD.
4. Other minorities who have no connection to the Middle East.

Now, I expect that most will vote for Harris no matter who is the VP pick, but Shapiro doesn’t make people feel comfortable. In Maryland, it wouldn’t matter, but it could matter in the crucial states.

National polls say otherwise. It's simply not an top tier issue for the 'average' Democrat who votes consistently, maybe cracking the top five.

 

[Raoul]

I understand, but he’s too risky of a choice. We need to at least realize that instead of being shocked on election night.

I don't know if this is accurate, especially given the low priority of foreign policy among voters in the last election cycle, as well in polling this year. People are first and foremost interested in economic policy from the President. And even if one were to play the game of thinking Shapiro's policy on Israel was a concern, the other VP candidates would have nearly identical views on Israel, Ukraine etc., all of which in either case still have to fall in line with what Harris' policy is, which is likely to be very similar to Biden's. So after all of that, the only distinguishing factor you are left with on Shaprio is he is Jewish.

 

[ManUtd1999]

National polls say otherwise. It's simply not a top tier issue for the 'average' Democrat who votes consistently, maybe cracking the top five.

I hope that’s the case.

In 2022, democracy/rule of law ended up being more important in exit polls than the usual polls showed, and that was in a year in which gas prices reached more than $5/gallon and inflation (y-o-y) was close to 10%.

And so, you never know.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

If she loses PA, there's a very high likelihood she will lose the election and Donald Trump will return to the WH. If Trump loses PA, there's also a significant chance he will lose the election so that should be the most important consideration.

Beyond that, there is no other downside to picking Shapiro. He's a popular governor, who many were tipping to be on the shortlist to be the next President (along with Newsom and Whitmer).

That's not entirely true as people have said.

His school voucher position is problematic and a big downside for teachers and people passionate about equality in education. He's not as union friendly as a Walz would be. And the Me Too issue shows he cares more about his own political rise to power than anything else. He's actually the worst choice she could make.

And the last bit is not true. He was nowhere near as nationally prolific as Newsom or Whitmer before all this VP talk which is solely because some people mistakenly believe he is going to guarantee a Penn win.

 

[Raoul]

That's not entirely true as people have said.

His school voucher position is problematic and a big downside for teachers and people passionate about equality in education. He's not as union friendly as a Walz would be. And the Me Too issue shows he cares more about his own political rise to power than anything else. He's actually the worst choice she could make.

And the last bit is not true. He was nowhere near as nationally prolific as Newsom or Whitmer before all this VP talk which is solely because some people mistakenly believe he is going to guarantee a Penn win.

I don't buy the voucher issue as animating Dems. If anything, it may attract some centrist R leaning independents, which would be born out in his popularity 61% rating in a swing state. The vouchers and other issues are an appendage to the central issue of Shapiro's view on Israel, which (not to beat a dead horse) are just about the same as every other prominent Dem. ---> Supportive of Israel, critical of Netanhahu, pro two-state solution.

 

[maniak]

Reading some comments from americans here, I don't get how these two square up:

a) the election will be decided by small margins in some states

b) palestine only matters for a small percentage of voters

 

[africanspur]

That's not entirely true as people have said.

His school voucher position is problematic and a big downside for teachers and people passionate about equality in education. He's not as union friendly as a Walz would be. And the Me Too issue shows he cares more about his own political rise to power than anything else. He's actually the worst choice she could make.

And the last bit is not true. He was nowhere near as nationally prolific as Newsom or Whitmer before all this VP talk which is solely because some people mistakenly believe he is going to guarantee a Penn win.

This is honestly such a weird gaslighting in real time process.

Shapiro was barely mentioned on here as a potential replacement for Biden if he stepped down. He was barely mentioned on any of the articles I read or by any of my American friends as a potential candidate.

Then when Biden stepped down, he was, again,not mentioned as one of the initial favourites for president (before Harris swept the delegates) or one of the favourites as VP. Even as recently as last week I believe he wasn't even the bookies' favourite out of the candidates.

Yet we're not supposed to believe that not only is he the only logical choice ( despite not being a favourite until about 2 days ago) but that the only reason anyone may lean against him is anti semitism.

 

[Raoul]

I hope that’s the case.

In 2022, democracy/rule of law ended up being more important in exit polls than the usual polls showed, and that was in a year in which gas prices reached more than $5/gallon and inflation (y-o-y) was close to 10%.

And so, you never know.

Here's some Gallup polling from earlier this year. Reality is quite different when one steps away from Twitter.

Spoiler

This is from the last election cycle

Spoiler

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

I don't buy the voucher issue as animating Dems. If anything, it may attract some centrist R leaning independents, which would be born out in his popularity 61% rating in a swing state. The vouchers and other issues are an appendage to the central issue of Shapiro's view on Israel, which (not to beat a dead horse) are just about the same as every other prominent Dem. Supportive of Israel, critical of Netanhahu, pro two-state solution.

If the school voucher thing is not going to animate Dems it's absolutely not going to attract any independents.

And that's also not entirely true about every VP all being same on Israel. Did Walz or Beshear or Buttigieg come put with statements anywhere near as harsh on protestors as Shapiro? All Dem VP may be within a broad category of "not going to go as harsh on Israel as many would like" but within that category he certainly lands on the furthest edge of pro Israel based on his comments. And Israel issue doesn't have to matter nationwide because it matters to enough voters in swing states that might stay home.

 

[calodo2003]

Reading some comments from americans here, I don't get how these two square up:

a) the election will be decided by small margins in some states

b) palestine only matters for a small percentage of voters

It's because the Palestine issue just doesn't rise to the import as other issues for Dem voters. The numbers just aren't there.

 

[africanspur]

Here's some Gallup polling from earlier this year. Reality is quite different when one steps away from Twitter.

Spoiler

So no point on the dems leaning heavily on abortion then from this it seems seeing as its as important an issue to almost as many people as the ME war is.

 

[maniak]

It's because the Palestine issue just doesn't rise to the import as other issues for Dem voters. The numbers just aren't there.

Looking at the last election, biden won some states by ridiculous small margins. If this issue leaves even a small percentage of voters at home, it can make a difference. What am I missing?

 

[Raoul]

So no point on the dems leaning heavily on abortion then from this it seems seeing as its as important an issue to almost as many people as the ME war is.

I suspect that poll is among all Americans not just Dems.

 

[calodo2003]

Looking at the last election, biden won some states by ridiculous small margins. If this issue leaves even a small percentage of voters at home, it can make a difference. What am I missing?

Just look at the primaries, the numbers outside of MI simply aren't there.

 

[DOTA]

I don't buy the voucher issue as animating Dems. If anything, it may attract some centrist R leaning independents, which would be born out in his popularity 61% rating in a swing state. The vouchers and other issues are an appendage to the central issue of Shapiro's view on Israel, which (not to beat a dead horse) are just about the same as every other prominent Dem. ---> Supportive of Israel, critical of Netanhahu, pro two-state solution.

Has Shapiro been more vocal when it comes to stuff like his anger at the college students and BDS and the likes than say Walz or Beshear? Cause everything I've seen seems to suggest he has. The posts of yourself and I think it was Cheimoon as well seem to suggest the idea Shapiro has been a stronger public supporter of Israel is an anti-semitic fantasy.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

This is honestly such a weird gaslighting in real time process.

Shapiro was barely mentioned on here as a potential replacement for Biden if he stepped down. He was barely mentioned on any of the articles I read or by any of my American friends as a potential candidate.

Then when Biden stepped down, he was, again,not mentioned as one of the initial favourites for president (before Harris swept the delegates) or one of the favourites as VP. Even as recently as last week I believe he wasn't even the bookies' favourite out of the candidates.

Yet we're not supposed to believe that not only is he the only logical choice ( despite not being a favourite until about 2 days ago) but that the only reason anyone may lean against him is anti semitism.

Exactly, this is very well articulated. It does feel like some interests are trying to really force him onto us and twisting history a bit to set him up with a bit of a manufactured narrative.

 

[Raoul]

Has Shapiro been more vocal when it comes to stuff like his anger at the college students and BDS and the likes than say Walz or Beshear? Cause everything I've seen seems to suggest he has. The posts of yourself and I think it was Cheimoon as well seem to suggest the idea Shapiro has been a stronger public supporter of Israel is an anti-semitic fantasy.

Probably so yes, primarily because his state is bigger in terms of population, and as such, saw a higher volume of protests. During that time, he was critical of the President of U Penn when testifying before Congress, she hedged about whether people calling for the genocide of Jews violated the schools code of conduct. She was eventually sacked, which he supported as well.

 

[africanspur]

I suspect that poll is among all Americans not just Dems.

You're missing the logical inconsistencies of your posts I presume. Ah well.

 

[Beachryan]

An Arab or Muslim politician who was running for office and had articles from 20 or 30 years ago saying Jews cannot make peace would 100% be pulled up in America and be questioned on those comments.

With respect, for quite a long time now, your approach to the discourse around the conflict has been to, in a manner showing your frustration, trying to mould the conversation to a tone more of your liking or shut it down entirely when it annoyingly gets in the way of things you personally find much more important.

Which is neither helpful nor particularly possible for such an emotive topic and one that many people do find very important.

I just don't see the purpose here. There are many posters on this forum for whom Palestine is literally the most important thing in the world. That's fine. But this is a thread about the future US President, in a race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The last two pages have been almost exclusively from Palestinian focussed posters basically lamenting that no choice is pro-Palestinian enough. Fine. I get that. I'm hugely in favour of completely reconsidering the federal taxation system, ripping it up and starting again so that we can finally start to address the surging wealth inequality that will one day tear apart the nation. But I know I'm not going to find that in the candidates and parties on offer, so I'm not posting daily about it, or digging out tweets or what not.

As someone that is pretty well-versed in US politics I can very confidently say: it is NOT the most important issue in this election to voters, no matter how much some think it should be. And therefore I don't believe we should be attacking the one Jewish candidate obstensibly because of his religion. I also don't think the same people doing the attacking would stand for that if he weren't Jewish.

 

[Beachryan]

This is honestly such a weird gaslighting in real time process.

Shapiro was barely mentioned on here as a potential replacement for Biden if he stepped down. He was barely mentioned on any of the articles I read or by any of my American friends as a potential candidate.

Then when Biden stepped down, he was, again,not mentioned as one of the initial favourites for president (before Harris swept the delegates) or one of the favourites as VP. Even as recently as last week I believe he wasn't even the bookies' favourite out of the candidates.

Yet we're not supposed to believe that not only is he the only logical choice ( despite not being a favourite until about 2 days ago) but that the only reason anyone may lean against him is anti semitism.

I've not seen anyone saying he's the logical or enough best choice. What I see is people trying to say he's a non-starter because of his previous support of Israel and something he wrote 30 years ago. Personally, he's last on the list of vetted candidates for me. But I also think he's only being attacked in the way he is (on here) because he's Jewish, and the Gazan situation is more animating on redcafe than any other world topic.

For example, he struggles with unions and that would be a much larger needle mover, politically, than anything he wrote in college.