No it doesn't?!
Losing PA is a likely harbinger of losing the rust belt, which would've resulted in a Biden win in 2020, even if he didn't win in GA, AZ, or NV. Therefore the importance of winning PA is paramount.
No it doesn't?!
And electoral votes have changed since then, and your argument was based on boosting the PA vote.Losing PA is a likely harbinger of losing the rust belt, which would've resulted in a Biden win in 2020, even if he didn't win in GA, AZ, or NV.
And electoral votes have changed since then, and your argument was based on boosting the PA vote.
It’s bigger than what I thought too.Fair enough, jewish population in PA is larger than i expected.
And Muslims are not the only group who will decide this election. Jewish voters, as a group, vote quite overwhelmingly Democrat, but we have seen many Jews, including Rabis criticizing Biden for not helping Israel. I think in polls, percentage wise, the Jewish voters were not as pro Democrat as usual, so it is possible that having the first Jewish VP in the ticket might more than make up the Muslim voters who will not vote for that reason.You don't think it has potential to backfire in Michigan? PA is not the only state where margins will be close come November.
It would create a bit of manufactured controversy among a tiny sliver of progressives, but wouldn’t change anything in terms of her momentum since it would be more conspicuous to independents if she didn’t select him, as opposed to appeasing to the far left if she did.
The FL population will also be influenced by a potential Shapiro selection, just as they were with Lieberman in 2000. The FL recount shenanigans notwithstanding.
I just don't think the narrative around not selecting Shapiro will be focused on his Israel stance, unless Harris explicitly makes it so (which she of course won't). The candidates are fairly similar in many ways - there are other reasons why she might go for Walz, Beshear or Kelly.Always bear in mind that 70% of Jews vote Democratic, and the optics of excluding a VP who happens to be Jewish, because of a couple of recent comments, won't be taken very well by them. Harris' job at this point is to get as many independents as possible, which won't be helped if she is perceived as deliberately not selecting Shapiro to assuage a very small, but vocal faction of people who wouldn't ordinarily vote for Harris anyway.
Eh, that was then, Florida is kinda gone for dems at this point, remember that it was the only swing(ish) state that really had a red wave election in 2022, all based on culture war-nonsense.
Its just a weird, weird, electorate, sure, they might vote abortion rights into law and i hope that they do, but they aren't voting for democrats statwide, any time soon, i don't think.
Winning the rust belt alone results in an electoral college tie so... yes, they have.They haven't changed enough to matter. PA is still a critical state for any candidate interested in winning. And the general sentiment in PA is often reflected in other nearby rust belt states. Harris still has to turn out as many PA voters as she can, particularly in the Philly suburbs, where the Dems make a majority of their gains in the state.
Winning the rust belt alone results in an electoral college tie so... yes, they have.
Nebraska 2nd district secures 270, which should go for dems.
Yes, that's the usual expectation when factoring in winning all the rust belt states. Should be 270-268 for the winner.
But which also went Trump in 2016. My point was that winning PA makes it "next to impossible" for Trump to win is clearly incorrect, which was said to make it look like Shapiro is an open and shut pick and somehow antisemitic not to pick him.Nebraska 2nd district secures 270, which should go for dems.
However, 270 is super uncomfortable, considering the prospect of faithless electors, courts and all.
Harris potentially putting at least Nevada and Georgia back into play(Trafalgar had her down by just 2 points in todays poll in Georgia) helps, every little bit helps.
100%. If it finishes that close, you can bet the farm Trump would be shouting fraud and litigating immediately in the hope his SCOTUS picks would get him over the top. I do think she will be competitive in GA and possibly NC, which will give Trump's campaign all sorts of headaches on where to deploy ad money during the final month.
But which also went Trump in 2016. My point was that winning PA makes it "next to impossible" for Trump to win is clearly incorrect, which was said to make it look like Shapiro is an open and shut pick and somehow antisemitic not to pick him.
Trump campaign going from "NH, Virginia and NM is in play" to "we have to defend NC" sure is a turn around, they too, have to play defense again.
They are one of the worst rated pollsters at FiveThrityEight. Ranked 273 out of 277
It shows a pattern with his recent actions which @berbatrick pointed out. This is more important than any lip service about a two-state solution which is just a meaningless party line. It's also weird that pointing out someone's racism means that these people mentioning it are the ones who are actually bigots.I am sure most of US elected politicans today were straight up homophobic and much more racist 30 years back. Using what someone said 3 decades ago to paint them in certain light seems bizarre when you can just rely on his recent statements on ongoing conflict/massacre in Gaza. It is also disingenuous to argue that Pro Palestinian groups did not go digging into Shapiro's past mainly because he is a JEW. So anti semitism is definitely at play here.
It shows a pattern with his recent actions which @berbatrick pointed out. This is more important than any lip service about a two-state solution which is just a meaningless party line. It's also weird that pointing out someone's racism means that these people mentioning it are the ones who are actually bigots.
Anyway, it doesn't matter if they pick him or not. Harris is already part of the administration that killed anything between 50k-200k Palestinians. The one who helped and encouraged Netanyahu to do whatever the feck he wanted in the region. Their actions also meant that there's a very likely scenario that by January or rather next week, Beirut will also have been bombed on a wide scale.
I am sure most of US elected politicans today were straight up homophobic and much more racist 30 years back. Using what someone said 3 decades ago to paint them in certain light seems bizarre when you can just rely on his recent statements on ongoing conflict/massacre in Gaza.
The point about it being a while ago would be valid if there was any indication of change. Within the last 5 years, he tried to sanction Ben and Jerry's for stopping sales in Israel's illegal settlements:: settlements which seem to be illegal according to the US too.
It is also disingenuous to argue that Pro Palestinian groups did not go digging into Shapiro's past mainly because he is a JEW. So anti semitism is definitely at play here.
How is something he said 31 years ago as an overconfident 20-year-old more important than what he says today, where he has been more vocally critical of Netanyahu and more supportive of a two-state solution than many Democrats?It shows a pattern with his recent actions which @berbatrick pointed out. This is more important than any lip service about a two-state solution which is just a meaningless party line. It's also weird that pointing out someone's racism means that these people mentioning it are the ones who are actually bigots.
People are trying to argue that Shapiro is either uniquely bad or even worse than likes of Kelly on Gaza war. Relying on 3 decade old statement on same is hogwash when you have videos of Kelly clapping Netanyanhu for his address to congress. Shapiro is under more scrutiny for his views on Gaza war because his a jew, to argue otherwise is ignore reality on purpose.
See @berbatrick's post above. And it's also in my post, his recent actions meant that the racist things he said 31 years ago are more relevant than meaningless support of a two-state solution.How is something he said 31 years ago as an overconfident 20-year-old more important than what he says today, where he has been more vocally critical of Netanyahu and more supportive of a two-state solution than many Democrats?
People are trying to argue that Shapiro is either uniquely bad or even worse than likes of Kelly on Gaza war. Relying on 3 decade old statement on same is hogwash when you have videos of Kelly clapping Netanyanhu for his address to congress. Shapiro is under more scrutiny for his views on Gaza war because his a jew, to argue otherwise is ignore reality on purpose.
Anyway, it doesn't matter whether they pick him or not. Harris is already part of the administration that killed anything between 50k-200k Palestinians. The one who helped and encouraged Netanyahu to do whatever the feck he wanted in the region. Their actions also meant that there's a very likely scenario that by January or rather next week, Beirut will also have been bombed on a wide scale.
It's not based on 30 year old statements though. Just as much his comments and conduct around the pro-Palestine protests throughout the spring. This quote is a real doozy: "We have to query whether or not we would tolerate this, if this were people dressed up in KKK outfits or KKK regalia, making comments about people who are African American in our communities".People are trying to argue that Shapiro is either uniquely bad or even worse than likes of Kelly on Gaza war. Relying on 3 decade old statement on same is hogwash when you have videos of Kelly clapping Netanyanhu for his address to congress. Shapiro is under more scrutiny for his views on Gaza war because his a jew, to argue otherwise is ignore reality on purpose.
Why is it meaningless when he criticizes Israel but not when he’s critical of Palestinians or pro-Palestinian protesters?See @berbatrick's post above. And it's also in my post, his recent actions meant that the racist things he said 31 years ago are more relevant than meaningless support of a two-state solution.
He did make a point to distinguish clearly between peaceful protesters and protesters who were harassing Jewish students going to class. His point was that American universities exhibited double standards, a view the Congress hearings certainly gave credence.It's not based on 30 year old statements though. Just as much his comments and conduct around the pro-Palestine protests throughout the spring. This quote is a real doozy: "We have to query whether or not we would tolerate this, if this were people dressed up in KKK outfits or KKK regalia, making comments about people who are African American in our communities".
It's not based on 30 year old statements though. Just as much his comments and conduct around the pro-Palestine protests throughout the spring. This quote is a real doozy: "We have to query whether or not we would tolerate this, if this were people dressed up in KKK outfits or KKK regalia, making comments about people who are African American in our communities".
There is a high upside to him, but he is also risky, and could stall Harris momentum, with Gaza being brought up, front and center in the media.
Walz or Beshear don't have the upside in a specific swing-state, but they are just the safe picks, with next to nothing to attack them on.
It's not based on 30 year old statements though. Just as much his comments and conduct around the pro-Palestine protests throughout the spring. This quote is a real doozy: "We have to query whether or not we would tolerate this, if this were people dressed up in KKK outfits or KKK regalia, making comments about people who are African American in our communities".
Why is it meaningless when he criticizes Israel but not when he’s critical of Palestinians or pro-Palestinian protesters?
Because he backs it with actions that make any support for a two-state solution or criticism of Netanyahu meaningless.Why is it meaningless when he criticizes Israel but not when he’s critical of Palestinians or pro-Palestinian protesters?