2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Think that Trump will easily win over 300 votes, in fact can see him going as far as 335 votes. Think that a few traditional blue states (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine) will turn red this time, and all swing states will go red.

The main issue is that in presidential election, people tend to vote the same party for congress, so GOP will have a much higher majority in the House than this time, and will flip the senate too.
 
So it's either Brain gone, Brainless or Brain eaten by worms? This feels like taken out of a cartoon. We're just missing Nixon in a jar.
 
Revan said:
Think that Trump will easily win over 300 votes, in fact can see him going as far as 335 votes. Think that a few traditional blue states (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine) will turn red this time, and all swing states will go red.

The main issue is that in presidential election, people tend to vote the same party for congress, so GOP will have a much higher majority in the House than this time, and will flip the senate too.
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I would like a lot more polling on these states, to find out a bit more, and probably confirm just how screwed Biden is, the polling in some of these states have been quite limited.
 
Dr. StrangeHate said:
The gravy train that is being a US politician in the senate or Congress is something that will corrupt 99.99% of people. Try resisting a 10 million pound donation to your campaign from a random company.
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I think there is some Mitt Romney quote about how addicted his colleague politicians were to the life. He recounts how one retired, golfed for a week, got bored, and missed his life in the Senate or Congress.

Tim Alberta also described how addictive it is to be so influential/powerful as a US Senator or Congressman.
 
Wonder what all these vulnerable swing-state senators/candidates will do, with Biden on the ticket.
Governor elections are more focused on local-issues, so not as big of a deal, but US senate candidates can't ignore Biden's brain deteriorating.

They can either support Biden, or distance themselves from him, the latter is surely better for them electorally.
 
Revan said:
Really awesome (in a sad way) piece of reading.
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Glad you enjoyed, was very sad but the reality has been for a while that Biden was impaired, going back a few years this was rumoured. Now it's out in the open, you can't get the toothpaste back in the tube.
 
Morty_ said:
Wonder what all these vulnerable swing-state senators/candidates will do, with Biden on the ticket.
Governor elections are more focused on local-issues, so not as big of a deal, but US senate candidates can't ignore Biden's brain deteriorating.

They can either support Biden, or distance themselves from him, the latter is surely better for them electorally.
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I do not think the Senate is savable at this point. GOP will win West Viriginia with Manchin not running, and that is all they need to get the senate control.

There are not many other Democrats in danger, essentially it is Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown who might lose their seats, and I do not think either of them have enough power to convince Biden to do anything.
 
Murder on Zidanes Floor said:
Glad you enjoyed, was very sad but the reality has been for a while that Biden was impaired, going back a few years this was rumoured. Now it's out in the open, you can't get the toothpaste back in the tube.
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Yep, I think everyone know that Biden is mentally impaired (to not say demented), just that people pretended that is not a problem.

Now everyone except his family think that is a problem. In 2 months, everyone except him will know that is a problem. Unfortunately, by that stage, he might not even know that there is an election.
 
Revan said:
Yep, I think everyone know that Biden is mentally impaired (to not say demented), just that people pretended that is not a problem.

Now everyone except his family think that is a problem. In 2 months, everyone except him will know that is a problem. Unfortunately, by that stage, he might not even know that there is an election.
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I feel the ego and the machinations of the democrat party seem more interested in their own status/power/influence rather than what is good for the nation.

This is also a great example of why you shouldn't partake in the (almost) gaslighting/hypernomal/post truth way of just denying abject reality in the media. We see it more and more and it never ends well, always makes it look like you're covering up something for nefarious reasons rather than approaching it head on.
 
Revan said:
I do not think the Senate is savable at this point. GOP will win West Viriginia with Manchin not running, and that is all they need to get the senate control.

There are not many other Democrats in danger, essentially it is Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown who might lose their seats, and I do not think either of them have enough power to convince Biden to do anything.
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But of course they will win WV, that was always going to happen.

Tester and Brown probably can't win with Biden on the ticket though, they should make their opinion on that clear.
What about Gallego, can he really win if Trump wins Arizona by 6? Open senate seat in Michigan, if Trump wins it by 4?

Two, most likely auto-defeats because of Biden is already a big price to pay having him on the ballot, and there could even be more than that.

This election have consequences for future elections too, as dems don't seem to think Trump is such an existential threat after all.
 
I regularly listen to Pod Save America where they’ve always been big cheerleaders for Biden. The shift in their rhetoric is telling, in that they’re now basically saying he’s unfit for office and should step aside.

So if he actually bites the bullet and steps back, which Dem would have the best chance of winning in November?

Whitmer, Newsom, Harris? Someone else? I’m inclined to say Newsom as he’s got good name recognition and did well in that debate against desantis. I also don’t know much about Whitmer and Harris doesn’t seem to inspire confidence anywhere.
 
Rob said:
I regularly listen to Pod Save America where they’ve always been big cheerleaders for Biden. The shift in their rhetoric is telling, in that they’re now basically saying he’s unfit for office and should step aside.

So if he actually bites the bullet and steps back, which Dem would have the best chance of winning in November?

Whitmer, Newsom, Harris? Someone else? I’m inclined to say Newsom as he’s got good name recognition and did well in that debate against desantis. I also don’t know much about Whitmer and Harris doesn’t seem to inspire confidence anywhere.
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Its a bit more complicated for the Dems, in that all the money Biden has raised for his campaign couldn't go to the likes of Newsom or Whitmer. It could however go to Harris, since she is part of the current Biden campaign. That would give her an advantage. That's not to say a different Dem candidate wouldn't be able to raise a lot of money quickly given the possibility of another Trump term.

In terms of who would actually be interested, I think the only one who has been promoting himself behind the scenes is Newsom.
 
Raoul said:
Its a bit more complicated for the Dems, in that all the money Biden has raised for his campaign couldn't go to the likes of Newsom or Whitmer. It could however go to Harris, since she is part of the current Biden campaign. That would give her an advantage. That's not to say a different Dem candidate wouldn't be able to raise a lot of money quickly given the possibility of another Trump term.

In terms of who would actually be interested, I think the only one who has been promoting himself behind the scenes is Newsom.
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Yeah, I imagine the idea of an impending Trump presidency would would fill up any new dem candidate’s bank account in no time.

Who would you prefer?
 
Rob said:
Yeah, I imagine the idea of an impending Trump presidency would would fill up any new dem candidate’s bank account in no time.

Who would you prefer?
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I would go with the candidate who the Republicans fear the most when asked about it. That would be Newsom. So if you pair him with Whitmer, that would be a solid ticket since the former has already been promoting himself on the Presidential stage. Another option would be to pair Newsom with Buttagieg or Wes Moore.

On the other hand, the most realistic replacement is shaping up to be Harris, given the way the Dem party hierarchy like to anoint the next person in line.
 
Raoul said:
I would go with the candidate who the Republicans fear the most when asked about it. That would be Newsom. So if you pair him with Whitmer, that would be a solid ticket since the former has already been promoting himself on the Presidential stage. Another option would be to pair Newsom with Buttagieg or Wes Moore.

On the other hand, the most realistic replacement is shaping up to be Harris, given the way the Dem party hierarchy like to anoint the next person in line.
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Newsom/Whitmer sounds like the best option to me. Would probably also be good to have a woman on the ticket.
 
Raoul said:
That's a problem for the Dem party. They've stretched themselves out so far to be a "big tent" party that no one knows whose in charge. The Republicans, on the other hand, are completely homogenous with the usual policy positions and one leader who everyone obeys.
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You're kidding, right? It’s always been the party insiders in charge—Clinton in 2016, Biden in 2020. And 2024? It’s been a coronation, not a competition, with Democrats coddling Biden, shielding him from any real primary challenge. The only reason there are calls for him to step down is because everyone and their mothers saw how infirm he was during the debate.
 
Suedesi said:
You're kidding, right? It’s always been the party insiders in charge—Clinton in 2016, Biden in 2020. And 2024? It’s been a coronation, not a competition, with Democrats coddling Biden, shielding him from any real primary challenge. The only reason there are calls for him to step down is because everyone and their mothers saw how infirm he was during the debate.
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Yes, elites do control the party. However, which faction among them are actually calling the shots. The latest narrative is that the party "dare not" ignore Harris because black women are heartbeat of the Dem voter base and "won't forget" if their candidate gets ignored. Does that mean that specific demographics are now running the show among insiders, where candidates are now getting selected based solely on one consideration ?
 
The thing is, it will be hard for the DNC to replace Biden if he doesn't want to step down because he's got the delegates. And if—big if—he steps down, it will be hard to bypass Harris because if neither Biden nor Harris is on the ticket, they’d have to return all the money they have raised so far back to the donors. Not to mention how bad it would look optically to replace Harris with, say, a white man like Newsom. There are no good options now.

I distinctly remember suggesting a year ago that Biden should step down and Newsom should run instead—only to be called all sorts of names in this thread. Ah, the foresight of the masses.
 
Suedesi said:
The thing is, it will be hard for the DNC to replace Biden if he doesn't want to step down because he's got the delegates. And if—big if—he steps down, it will be hard to bypass Harris because if neither Biden nor Harris is on the ticket, they’d have to return all the money they have raised so far back to the donors. Not to mention how bad it would look optically to replace Harris with, say, a white man like Newsom. There are no good options now.

I distinctly remember suggesting a year ago that Biden should step down and Newsom should run instead—only to be called all sorts of names in this thread. Ah, the foresight of the masses.
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There is a good option - which is for Biden to immediately announce he's out and that he supports a mini-primary over the next month to select his replacement, which would be codified at next month's convention.

He of course won't do that out of his own pride and stubbornness, as well as the fact that it would be a massive political slap in the face to Harris, who thinks she's entitled to be his replacement.
 
Raoul said:
There is a good option - which is for Biden to immediately announce he's out and that he supports a mini-primary over the next month to select his replacement, which would be codified at next month's convention.

He of course won't do that out of his own pride and stubbornness, as well as the fact that it would be a massive political slap in the face to Harris, who thinks she's entitled to be his replacement.
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It's not a good option, because if Biden isn't fit to run, how is he fit to serve the rest of his term?

In 2020, he ran as a one-term President to restore normalcy and dignity to the White House. I voted for him—not because I liked Biden, but because, like millions of Americans, I wanted Trump out.

He should have announced last year that he wouldn't seek re-election, serve out his term with dignity and let the best Democrat win. Instead, he clung to power, and the Party and media enabled him.

So fecking dysfunctional
 
Suedesi said:
It's not a good option, because if Biden isn't fit to run, how is he fit to serve the rest of his term?

In 2020, he ran as a one-term President to restore normalcy and dignity to the White House. I voted for him—not because I liked Biden, but because, like millions of Americans, I wanted Trump out.

He should have announced last year that he wouldn't seek re-election, serve out his term with dignity and let the best Democrat win. Instead, he clung to power, and the Party and media enabled him.

So fecking dysfunctional
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Unless he dies, he's perfectly fit to serve out his term. The question is whether Harris can win against Trump. She has never been a galvanizing force in the Dem party at a time when Trump has the entire GOP apparatus and voting base behind him, so it would be an uphill struggle for her.
 
Speaking of old people, senator Inhofe/Snowball just died, though at least he resigned a couple of years prior.

Way less complicated solution would be for US congress to just come together and set a age-limit for all elected officials, rather than all kinds of cognotive tests.

Shouldn't be that difficult, but somehow it is.
 
Morty_ said:
Just another narcissist, at the end of the day.
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this was written in 2008:

Another shining moment in Biden’s progress in the current presidential term was his conduct in the hearings on Judge Alito’s nomination to the US Supreme Court. From the opening moments of the Judiciary Committee’s sessions in January, 2006, it became clear that Alito faced no serious opposition. On that first ludicrous morning Senator Pat Leahy sank his head into his hands, shaking it in unbelieving despair as Biden blathered out a self-serving and inane monologue lasting a full twenty minutes before he even asked Alito one question. In his allotted half hour Biden managed to pose only five questions, all of them ineptly phrased. He did pose two questions about Alito’s membership of a racist society at Princeton, but had already undercut them in his monologue by calling Alito “a man of integrity”, not once but twice, and further trivialized the interrogation by reaching under the dais to pull out a Princeton cap and put it on.

In all, Biden rambled for 4,000 words, leaving Alito time only to put together less than 1,000. A Delaware newspaper made deadly fun of him for his awful performance, eliciting the revealing confession from Biden that “I made a mistake. I should have gone straight to my question. I was trying to put him at ease.”
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hey at least he's not dooming all the senators yet.
 
VorZakone said:
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I don't actually hope for it, but would serve these cowards right, to go down with the ship and hand GOP another trifecta, and a republican senate that probably won't be overcome before next decade.

Not much of a consolation price, but at leat it's something.
 
Well, that’s it then. GOP wins both chambers and the presidency, in case of House they’ll probably win it by 50. As long as they do not lose more than 1-2 seats in senate (in addition to West Virginia), it is ok. Dems will get back the House in 2 years and then the senate.

If they go below 48 senators though, the senate is gone for the foreseeable future.
 
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