2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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FFS! CNN saying that their latest poll showing that Hillary is only up 4 points! 47% to 43% for Trump.

Surely that can't be right, surely she should be in double figures now? What the hell is going on with this election? It's insanity. 4% isn't enough by any stretch, that's the same difference being touted as a guaranteed win before the Brexit vote.
 
FFS! CNN saying that their latest poll showing that Hillary is only up 4 points! 47% to 43% for Trump.

Surely that can't be right, surely she should be in double figures now? What the hell is going on with this election? It's insanity. 4% isn't enough by any stretch, that's the same difference being touted as a guaranteed win before the Brexit vote.

It's the new WaPo poll. It's fine. Standard statistical deviation.

When you are up 7-8 points there will be polls that show you up 10-11 or 4-5. All within MoE.
 


Not a great way to get them eased up :wenger:


:lol: He really is pathetic isn't he?

It's the new WaPo poll. It's fine. Standard statistical deviation.

When you are up 7-8 points there will be polls that show you up 10-11 or 4-5. All within MoE.

Yeah, I understand that, but if I was just going off those polls I would be extremely worried indeed. Especially after what happened in the UK with the EU vote. The only thing that gives me any comfort is looking at the electoral college map votes, then it doesn't seem as bad. Just going off the polls though, well, it's enough to give you a heart attack.

But of course..............

 
FFS! CNN saying that their latest poll showing that Hillary is only up 4 points! 47% to 43% for Trump.

Surely that can't be right, surely she should be in double figures now? What the hell is going on with this election? It's insanity. 4% isn't enough by any stretch, that's the same difference being touted as a guaranteed win before the Brexit vote.
How is this even possible? Its been all negative stories about Trump for over a week now. How has he closed the gap?
 
How is this even possible? Its been all negative stories about Trump for over a week now. How has he closed the gap?

Extremely high partisanship drawing Rs back.

They are basically experiencing Sophie's choice.

The important thing to look at is trend. Last ABC/WaPo poll had her up only 2, so the trend has been positive. Also, as they noted in the crosstabs, enthusiasm is low on the R side, and their base (low educated whites) have a lower voting likelihood to begin with.
 
How is this even possible? Its been all negative stories about Trump for over a week now. How has he closed the gap?

It's just one poll. The RCP average of national polls currently shows her 5.5% up. And more important than the national polls are the state polls - which currently show that Trump's path to an electoral college victory is very narrow.
 
People should switch to Pollster.com instead. RCP is very arbitrary in its selection of polls, usually favoring terrible R lean polls (looking at you, Rasmussen/Gravis). They missed Obama national vote count by more than 3% last time.
 
It has to be that, more than anything, and I think the blame for such desperation, and as such its consequences, should be aimed at both the Democrats and the Republicans who have ignored the plight of vast amounts of their country.

feck people over long enough and they'll try anything. See Brexit.

It's a mix of failed policies and whatnot from both sides but sprinkled with a poisonous concoction of bullshit spouted from hate talk radio and Fox News.
 
Thanks @InfiniteBoredom and @Carolina Red I thought as much, but wasn't entirely sure. Thanks very much for sorting it all out and explaining it all so well. Now a question to you both... Do you honestly think he ISNT scamming the fund? I know he's writing a lot off against his hotels and plane and whatever, but do you think he's paying other stuff with it too? Like he did/does with the Trump foundation? And another question, if you think yes, do you think it will be investigated?
I think there's definitely some sketchy things going on, what with the way he is relying on his own business for basically everything the campaign does, added to that is the revelation of what he has been using his "charity" for over the years...
 
FFS! CNN saying that their latest poll showing that Hillary is only up 4 points! 47% to 43% for Trump.

Surely that can't be right, surely she should be in double figures now? What the hell is going on with this election? It's insanity. 4% isn't enough by any stretch, that's the same difference being touted as a guaranteed win before the Brexit vote.

It's normal imo. Her polling average lead us about 6 .
 
I think that it will soon be discovered that Trump's campaign was all a piece of dadist performance art, and that he has been controlling both official and parody Twitter accounts of him, slowly making them indistinguishable over time.
 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/

Really good article about what could be the end of the GOP as we know it.

Makes some good points about how the GOP has become focused on individuals (an individual - Reagan) rather than policy, the demographic shift that could soon cripple the party, and how the Tea Party movement (basically portrayed as grey haired white people) and other movements that included obvious racial bias have hamstrung the policy based wing of the party.
 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/

Really good article about what could be the end of the GOP as we know it.

Makes some good points about how the GOP has become focused on individuals (an individual - Reagan) rather than policy, the demographic shift that could soon cripple the party, and how the Tea Party movement (basically portrayed as grey haired white people) and other movements that included obvious racial bias have hamstrung the policy based wing of the party.

Buuuuut.... what if they could engage all those non-registered, white non-educated folk in the other article? If someone with enough nous to get 1-in-5 of them or whatever it was registered and engaged, they'd be a force to be reckoned with.
 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/

Really good article about what could be the end of the GOP as we know it.

Makes some good points about how the GOP has become focused on individuals (an individual - Reagan) rather than policy, the demographic shift that could soon cripple the party, and how the Tea Party movement (basically portrayed as grey haired white people) and other movements that included obvious racial bias have hamstrung the policy based wing of the party.
You might like this opinion piece by Bruce Bartlett, too:
Even after Trump loses, the GOP is still toast
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...5cd538-9096-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html
 
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