2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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Think it's much more likely for NV to be blue on these maps now.
Nope, no air national guard or USAF bases will be stood down under Obamas watch.
That's a windup, right ?
A quick google says Maine first went with a Nebraska type plan in 1972, in the middle of a Democrat Governors two terms. It is also a state that has had more republican than democrat governors.
Not sure if the State has yet to have split it's electoral votes.
They haven't.
Didn't think they had
The path to immortality. Let's go Donald!
Harry Reid is many things, but no one should ever question his political savvyness. Propelling Obama's candidacy in '08. Built one of the finest union & GOTV state apparatus in America.
The path to immortality. Let's go Donald!
You just randomly changed the colour didn't you
Just be thankful I didn't turn Florida red. I was a whisker away from it!
Sadly I think it could come down to much finer margins than many believe. However, will still win (cling on) in the end.
There's no universe where Clinton wins FL but loses NV.
Probably be no lines on Election Day. How many days were the early voting places open?
I was going to edit my post following that tweet regarding the latest Nevada polls. Perhaps it will makes things safer than I feared they would be. That being said it's not like the numbers in both states haven't been swinging back and forth.
It makes a TThe path to immortality. Let's go Donald!
They slashed the early voting sites in Dem heavy areas by 70%. Caused a huge ruckus in the primary there when Clinton was called the winner but there were still long lines of people waiting to vote at 11 P.M. Both campaigns filed suits against the state.
The path to immortality. Let's go Donald!
I'd been googling worst performances in terms of EV this morning
So, what are we thinking for a Democrat senate? 538 are predicting they take New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania from the Republicans
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
The path to immortality. Let's go Donald!
Did you intentionally just leave a red T in the states he wins?
Illinois and Nevada (Reid's seat) are dead certs. PA leans blue. WI uncertain (trends are not good for Feingold there). NH probably gone. Ayotte is an incumbent with good favourables and they have the swingiest swing vote who probably reacted negatively to the FBI ruckus.
Dems biggest hope at the moment is an upset in Missouri (Kander) or NC (Ross).
Very likely to be 49-51 atm. Or worse.
Yes, it stands for Hilary grabbing America by the Testicles. Obviously.
I'd never do that. Nobody has greater respect for election predictions than me.
So she could lose Arizona and Florida and still win? Nice...
Minnesota... Does he really think he can turn the one blue state in the '84 election red?Is anyone else watching this sham of a speech on Faux News now?
How can anyone believe a word he says, however I must admit I really enjoyed that speech in Tampa! it was hilarious, so many quotes, and comical hand gestures. Also the holding the baby up in the air like the Lion King was priceless!
How can anyone believe a word he says, however I must admit I really enjoyed that speech in Tampa! it was hilarious, so many quotes, and comical hand gestures. Also the holding the baby up in the air like the Lion King was priceless!
Cue them realizing how stupid an idea that is, and Pence comes out with "He never said we were going to go to Minnesota" on stage. In Minnesota. Next to Trump.
You have Minnesota red !!
Damn! That's another good one. Hillary definitely has the best ads!
Predictions
Its time to put up or shut up - head over to 270towin and create your prediction map and post it here, including why certain states will vote as they do.
My prediction 289-249 Hillary
- Nevada seems to be a Dem pick up which would put her over 270 even if she loses NH, which would put Trump's 270-268 (NH + ME 2nd District).
- I think Hillary will pick up either NC or FL, which would obviously allow her some flexibility to lose either PA or MI and still win. On Tuesday, look for results in PA and NC - if she wins both, and given what we know about NV early voting, it would be pretty much over.
- Trump should win the likes of IA, AZ, UT, GA et al
- Don't be surprised if FL is so close (as in within .5 of 1%) that the results once again have to go to a recount and won't be fully tendered in for days. Obviously that will matter less if Hillary already reaches 270 elsewhere.
- Expect Trump to win the 2nd Districts in NE and ME.
Early Signs Hillary will win
If Trump wins this, he will more than likely win 270-268 by taking NV, NH, and the 2nd ME District. The reason this seems less likely than a few days ago is the strong returns Dems are already getting in NV, which cuts off this particular path.
Early signs Trump will win:
My prediction 289-249 Hillary
- Nevada seems to be a Dem pick up which would put her over 270 even if she loses NH, which would put Trump's 270-268 (NH + ME 2nd District).
- I think Hillary will pick up either NC or FL, which would obviously allow her some flexibility to lose either PA or MI and still win. On Tuesday, look for results in PA and NC - if she wins both, and given what we know about NV early voting, it would be pretty much over.
- Trump should win the likes of IA, AZ, UT, GA et al
- Don't be surprised if FL is so close (as in within .5 of 1%) that the results once again have to go to a recount and won't be fully tendered in for days. Obviously that will matter less if Hillary already reaches 270 elsewhere.
- Expect Trump to win the 2nd Districts in NE and ME.
Early Signs Hillary will win
- She holds PA, VA, and wins NH and NC (coupled with early voting in NV)
- Unexpectedly early strong returns in FL and/or NC
If Trump wins this, he will more than likely win 270-268 by taking NV, NH, and the 2nd ME District. The reason this seems less likely than a few days ago is the strong returns Dems are already getting in NV, which cuts off this particular path.
Early signs Trump will win:
- Early, unexpected strong results in PA and NH
- Strong results in NC and FL
- PA is clearly the tipping point state for him, if he does well there, he will have broken her blue firewall and she may lose.
Love the Denald.
Hot damn. That was a good ad. Even got Tantaros in it too.
(Speaking of... Fox has apparently cut her paychecks off since she appeared in GMA)
Minnesota isn't even on the schedule on his website. FL, NC, NV, CO, IA, WI, PA, FL, NC, PA, NH then the victory party in NY.
I would.
I'll stick with my map above from earlier this morning.
I think he might split Maine, since the state is a bit bipolar sometimes. Seems like a typical liberal NE state, but then has GOP governors.
I'm giving Trump NC because I just don't think the Asheville effect in Western NC has outnumbered the rednecks up there like my uncle yet.
Giving Hillary FL and NV because of early voting trends and gut feeling.
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