2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Is Rubio not a viable candidate?
 
Raoul said:
He did, but its not like its a legally binding document. It was just a pledge, which I'm sure he will undo if he isn't "treated fairly".
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I wonder if he´ll bring up the threat of running independently when he pow wows with Ailes. Would be a great strategy to get good coverage from Fox, which would mean throwing some of his employees under the bus, especially his biggest star Megyn.
 
Raoul said:
He did, but its not like its a legally binding document. It was just a pledge, which I'm sure he will undo if he isn't "treated fairly".
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I believe he signed it only because some states wouldn't let him get on the Republican ballot unless he pledged his support to the party.
 
Ole's_toe_poke said:
I believe he signed it only because some states wouldn't let him get on the Republican ballot unless he pledged his support to the party.
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Probably so, although I doubt its legally binding. More so just a pledge of loyalty, which of course he can back out of anytime.
 
PedroMendez said:
Trump can´t go back on this promise without committing political suicide. It is fun to see some of candidates them at the late show (Trump, Cruz).
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What do you mean he can't ? Of course he can. He wouldn't win the election but he would certainly guarantee the GOP wont win.
 
I mean, that he can´t go back on this promise without committing political suicide. It is really straight forward. Nobody will sue him, but he´ll be politically dead. He´ll be marginalized and removed from the political landscape for good. He won´t win anything by doing so. It is very unlikely, that he decides to run as independent.
 
PedroMendez said:
I mean, that he can´t go back on this promise without committing political suicide. It is really straight forward. Nobody will sue him, but he´ll be politically dead. He´ll be marginalized and removed from the political landscape for good. He won´t win anything by doing so. It is very unlikely, that he decides to run as independent.
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But his poll numbers will go up and his fanboys will bust a nut
 
PedroMendez said:
I mean, that he can´t go back on this promise without committing political suicide. It is really straight forward. Nobody will sue him, but he´ll be politically dead. He´ll be marginalized and removed from the political landscape for good. He won´t win anything by doing so. It is very unlikely, that he decides to run as independent.
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He won't be politically dead, as there will be enough people who still support him over the eventual Republican nominee, to buy him relevance going into a 3 way general election. It only takes 1 or 2 % of the population to support a 3rd party candidate to swing the entire election. See 2000 and 2004.
 
PedroMendez said:
I mean, that he can´t go back on this promise without committing political suicide. It is really straight forward. Nobody will sue him, but he´ll be politically dead. He´ll be marginalized and removed from the political landscape for good. He won´t win anything by doing so. It is very unlikely, that he decides to run as independent.
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Well I suppose to be fair most people would have said that about someone who suggested that women only criticize him because they're menstruating, or ... I'll just stop here because the rest of that sentence writes itself. We really are in political virgin territory with this man and his fans. The laws of physics don't seem to apply.

On that note, I can't be the only one who notices that whenever Trump supporters are interviewed by the media, or even just every time I take a quick look at Internet commenters on Trump-related stories, one sentiment keeps jumping out at me: "I've never voted before, but I will this time for Trump because... [bullshit reason X, Y and Z]."

My guess is that his support is made up overwhelmingly by people who aren't the "1%", or the "47%", but the 40ish percent: people who simply don't actually vote, or care very much about politics beyond catching one or two soundbites here and there. And the odds are that they won't this time, either.
 
naturalized said:
Well I suppose to be fair most people would have said that about someone who suggested that women only criticize him because they're menstruating, or ... I'll just stop here because the rest of that sentence writes itself. We really are in political virgin territory with this man and his fans. The laws of physics don't seem to apply.

On that note, I can't be the only one who notices that whenever Trump supporters are interviewed by the media, or even just every time I take a quick look at Internet commenters on Trump-related stories, one sentiment keeps jumping out at me: "I've never voted before, but I will this time for Trump because... [bullshit reason X, Y and Z]."

My guess is that his support is made up overwhelmingly by people who aren't the "1%", or the "47%", but the 40ish percent: people who simply don't actually vote, or care very much about politics beyond catching one or two soundbites here and there. And the odds are that they won't this time, either.
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I mostly agree, but going back on your own promises is fairly painful for any politician. It undermines his credibility and he campaigns as "I am in no one´s pocket, say what I do and get things done" guy. What would he gain from running independently? His chances of winning would be literately zero and he wouldn´t have any future within the GOP. All to piss of the party, that eventually won´t win anyway? I don´t think so.
 
PedroMendez said:
I mostly agree, but going back on your own promises is fairly painful for any politician. It undermines his credibility and he campaigns as "I am in no one´s pocket, say what I do and get things done" guy. What would he gain from running independently? His chances of winning would be literately zero and he wouldn´t have any future within the GOP. All to piss of the party, that eventually won´t win anyway? I don´t think so.
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It's about ego. He'd be able to say he got however many votes against the establishment parties, all by himself. What's his future in the GOP anyway? Is he really going to get involved with the day to day chores that go with being a Senator or Governor? Doubt it.
 
PedroMendez said:
I mostly agree, but going back on your own promises is fairly painful for any politician. It undermines his credibility and he campaigns as "I am in no one´s pocket, say what I do and get things done" guy. What would he gain from running independently? His chances of winning would be literately zero and he wouldn´t have any future within the GOP. All to piss of the party, that eventually won´t win anyway? I don´t think so.
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I don't think Trump cares. He's not a politician and he knows how much leverage he has on the outcome of the Presidential race, whether as a GOPer or an Independent. He likes the limelight and it wouldn't be beneath him to run as a 3rd party candidate.
 
Ubik said:
It's about ego. He'd be able to say he got however many votes against the establishment parties, all by himself. What's his future in the GOP anyway? Is he really going to get involved with the day to day chores that go with being a Senator or Governor? Doubt it.
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his numbers would plummet into oblivion, if he runs as independent. How would a very low single digit result help his ego? If he stays in the GOP, he can stay relevant.
 
PedroMendez said:
his numbers would plummet into oblivion, if he runs as independent. How would a very low single digit result help his ego? If he stays in the GOP, he can stay relevant.
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He's relevant in either case. See what Ralph Nader did in the 2000 and 04 elections. He had very low numbers but still managed to change the history of the 21st century
 
PedroMendez said:
his numbers would plummet into oblivion, if he runs as independent. How would a very low single digit result help his ego? If he stays in the GOP, he can stay relevant.
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There've been polls of a three way race involving Trump and he gets around 20%+, and whilst that more than likely wouldn't happen in a GE, Trump would probably believe it's understating his support more than anything. This is the only candidate I've ever heard in debate consistently refer to his polling figures to try and prove he's right. He's a narcissist pure and simple, and one that holds an almighty grudge. He's on a crest of popularity that may never come about again for all he knows, will he really want to stand aside so he can get some gubernatorial candidacy?

Whatever the case, him having said that he wouldn't run as an independent is unlikely to actually stop him doing so. Things that could would be financial reality setting in and his poll numbers getting so low he wouldn't see the point.
 
PedroMendez said:
his numbers would plummet into oblivion, if he runs as independent. How would a very low single digit result help his ego? If he stays in the GOP, he can stay relevant.
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I don't know if that's true though! People supporting him are supporting an enormous wanker, a misogynistic, racist, airhead bimbo. I'm not seeing a scenario where a voter sees and hears Trump say and do all the amazing things already he's said and done and is fine with it, and then the dealbreaker is that he broke that promise not to run as an independent. Seems to me that the kind of voter who manages to support Trump even now honestly wouldn't care less about such a thing.

I really wish we had a few Trump supporters here to get a sense of who they really were and what it is they want to see happen.
 
naturalized said:
I don't know if that's true though! People supporting him are supporting an enormous wanker, a misogynistic, racist, airhead bimbo. I'm not seeing a scenario where a voter sees and hears Trump say and do all the amazing things already he's said and done and is fine with it, and then the dealbreaker is that he broke that promise not to run as an independent. Seems to me that the kind of voter who manages to support Trump even now honestly wouldn't care less about such a thing.

I really wish we had a few Trump supporters here to get a sense of who they really were and what it is they want to see happen.
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The GOP is preaching, that government is too big/too incompetent/dysfunctional and politicians are responsible for that. It is hardly surprising that parts of their (active) base believe precisely this narrative (24/7 in the conservative media). The obvious contradiction is, that the GOP establishment is part of that problem and the only reasonable consequences is to elect people, who are no politicians (~not corrupted yet) with a strong anti-government agenda. Trump, Carson, Fiorina fit this profile. It is probably just random (bad) luck, that Trump got his momentum at the right time, so he leads the field instead of another candidate with similar characteristics.
The sad truth is that the alternatives to Trump aren´t really much better. The likes of Carson, Fiorina or Cruz are bat-shit crazy and even the "normal" candidates (e.g.Bush or Rubio) are saying outrageous things on a regular basis. In the GOP extremists can set the agenda and what was a moderate republican 20 years ago hardly exist nowadays in their debate.
 
There's only ONE good thing I can think of when it comes to Trump, and that's the fact that he admits the corrosive influence of money in politics. That said, I don't think that means he'll do campaign finance reform, or do any other significant moves to get money out of politics.

Otherwise, the man's just an egomaniac who wants the biggest chair on the planet. He might as well be Zaphod Beeblebrox.
 
Eriku said:
There's only ONE good thing I can think of when it comes to Trump, and that's the fact that he admits the corrosive influence of money in politics. That said, I don't think that means he'll do campaign finance reform, or do any other significant moves to get money out of politics.

Otherwise, the man's just an egomaniac who wants the biggest chair on the planet. He might as well be Zaphod Beeblebrox.
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He at least had style.
 
I see Jebby Bush is dog whistling again about no "free stuff" to African Americans. Typical. These fcuking people are so entitled that it´s never "free stuff" when it´s billions and billions of subsidies and tax breaks for well off corporations and more billions in sweet contracts for the Military and Prison industrial complex, not to mention the nearly trillion dollar loan debt run up to mostly private, for profit universities etc.

It´s always them lazy colored folks with their hand in the public cookie jar.
 
I've thought about it a bit and I don't think Trump can win the nomination. His national numbers among Republicans are in the late 20s/ early 30s. He has got all the exposure he can get everybody knows him, so it can't go up that much.
People will start dropping out and I don't think he will be able to win with 30% voteshare. Rubio scares the shit out of me.
 
Red Dreams said:
The right wing media is doing all it can to make sure Trump does not win the nomination...thats for sure.
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Yep, they definitely want to get rid of him. Whenever he trips up by saying something controversial, they pile on him. This is why I think Trump may well claim the GOP establishment aren't being fair to him and will use that as justification to run as a 3rd party.
 
Raoul said:
Yep, they definitely want to get rid of him. Whenever he trips up by saying something controversial, they pile on him. This is why I think Trump may well claim the GOP establishment aren't being fair to him and will use that as justification to run as a 3rd party.
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Rubio and Cruz will be there to pick up his supporters if he does drop out. I'm not sure he will want to run as an independent. He needs to work with these people if he wants to keep running his business ventures.
 
Raoul said:
Yep, they definitely want to get rid of him. Whenever he trips up by saying something controversial, they pile on him. This is why I think Trump may well claim the GOP establishment aren't being fair to him and will use that as justification to run as a 3rd party.
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Didn't you say before there was no way he would waste his money as an independent?

I have always said I think he will run (be that on the ticket (possibly even a v.p) or as an independent)

With his soundbite friendly rhetoric I think he could run a reasonable campaign for less than people think (and the value added back to brand Trump would effectively reduce the outlay further)
 
Raoul said:
Yep, they definitely want to get rid of him. Whenever he trips up by saying something controversial, they pile on him. This is why I think Trump may well claim the GOP establishment aren't being fair to him and will use that as justification to run as a 3rd party.
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Is there any chance that a third party can get a lot of votes in the main election?

I hope it'll happen though. It would divide the votes of right wing people, and give Clinton an easy victory.
 
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