I think the logic of the swing states still prevails in these discussions. In order for the GOP to win the Presidency, they would have to almost sweep all the swing states, whereas the Dems only need about 2 or 3, and they're already looking quite strong in Virginia, and have a decent chance in NC and FL. Of course if Trump wins the GOP nomination, a lot of this logic may go out the window.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are here to talk about United's dreadful home defeat at the hands of Big Ange's Tottenham Hotspur. Should this have been the end of Ten Hag? How long does he actually have left? And does Nik finally want ETH out?!
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A Duke University Professor friend of mine also thinks the Dems have a good chance in NC.
NC becoming a swing state means the GOP will have to spend a lot of money there.
NC becoming a swing state means the GOP will have to spend a lot of money there.
I think NC will be in play as well because of Obama's performance in 08 and the massive presence of younger urban crowds near the Universities and in the research triangle area.
Hopefully their legislature has not changed the voting rules....like throwing out students from out of state.
Funny, but I used to think SC would be the state that would trend Dem sooner.
Data without analysis is hilarious. That entire sentence is either a tautology or meaningless.
He is already courting televangelists since he's doing terrible with the hardcore evangelicals due to his liberal positions. A Trump nomination would only be a big middle finger from the Tea Party wing to the GOP establishment. Without the blacks and Hispanics, there's no way, none, zilch to win the Presidency.
Tellingly, according to the latest PPP poll, Rubio is the overwhelming second choice amongst Republicans. Gonna be fun seeing the little prince trying to explain his flip flops.
I'd actually be quite concerned if Rubio gets the nomination, especially if he goes up against Hillary, which would make it another young vs old candidate situation like with Obama in 07/08. Trump getting the nomination on the other hand, would almost guarantee a Dem victory, as would Trump running as an independent.
If it's Rubio vs Hillary then the Dem VP pick must be Julian Castro. All the strengths Rubio has without the weaknesses. Also make for a nice narrative of power transition and history making, first Hispanic VP and maybe eventually first Hispanic president. A pick like Jim Webb while sensible will only fuel the old, white, establishment schtick.
American politics while fascinating can be downright depressive sometimes. Better candidates often get overlooked for the populist option.
Yes, I agree that would make for an effective combination to offset Rubio's latino advantage. I also like Eric Garcetti, the mayor of LA, but he doesn't yet have the support of someone like Castro.
BTW, how glorious would it be if someone name Castro fecked Rubio out of his Presidential aspirations.
Trump's numbers and Sanders' unexpected surge flies in the face of what experts would say early on in their respective campaigns. They both benefit from the disillusionment with establishment politicians, and Sanders looks like he might actually have something different going on with his grassroots peer-to-peer approach to spreading the good word. Just curious whether those who laugh off the chance of either of the two winning the nomination reckon there's any chance that this election may not have the ordinary dynamic, and that such predictions will have pundits with egg on their face?
Or maybe I'm just being a naive bastard, on behalf of Sanders... Trump's more scary than anything, but as has been pointed out, Bernie winning the primaries would mean that a previously apathetic portion of the left have gotten off their arses and will turn up at the polls, all but ensuring a Dem victory... Or so I've heard, Raoul and others who are more clued up about US politics have shown me up in this thread a few times, bracing myself for more of that with this post
Or maybe I'm just being a naive bastard, on behalf of Sanders... Trump's more scary than anything, but as has been pointed out, Bernie winning the primaries would mean that a previously apathetic portion of the left have gotten off their arses and will turn up at the polls, all but ensuring a Dem victory... Or so I've heard, Raoul and others who are more clued up about US politics have shown me up in this thread a few times, bracing myself for more of that with this post
Nah. The negative ads haven't started in full force yet. Rubio is a potential winner for GOP. He is a lot more appealing than Jeb.
It depends where the Fiorina/Carson supporters go once they suffer a dip. Depends if they stick with the 'outsider' mentality and go with Trump or levitate towards a more established name. The thing is I expect Fiorina and Trump to spar heavily and so I doubt her supporters would go to him.
Jeb's campaign is quite comical. His Super PAC is about to drop a $25m ad buy in the January states, yet his number has decreased for months now. If it doesn't go up after the ads then panic will hit.
He made the wrong play imo, defending W. Should have distanced himself completely and run on his record as governor. Money can only take you so far.
He made the wrong play imo, defending W. Should have distanced himself completely and run on his record as governor. Money can only take you so far.
I hope Sanders can win atleast two of the initial primaries. He need to start winning support of the centre of the Democratic base. That'll be crucial in getting the nomination.
I haven't followed this at all.. but is Chris Christie officially running? and if he is, why is he polling so low? Didn't people love him a couple of years back? Has his stock fallen that low? He is on par with Bobby Jindal... that is messed up.
Google New Jersey bridge scandal. That hit him hard, and of course him hugging Barry in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Also, he's a pig. You gotta have the looks to be president.
Ah. I have some reading to do. Thanks.
He can't distance himself from W. He will always be asked about his opinion on his reign. He has to pick a side.
And he picked the wrong side. A standard: 'he did what he did in good faith for the safety of the American people' would have sufficed. If pressed, he can always admit that the invasion was wrong but it's of the past and there are pressing domestic issues that he's best suited to handle, and stressed that he's not his brother. W would have to lay low but it'll hardly affect Jeb's fundraising prowess. By flip flopping around and defending W, he's effective made himself unelectable in the eyes of most independents, right of center Dems and a big section of Republicans.
It was always going to be a tight walk. I think he's failed and is plummeting towards the abyss. No amount of money will save him, especially with a formidable establishment candidate like Rubio behind his back.
The H-Bomb just got endorsed by the NEA, about 25% of them were against making the decision this soon.
Meanwhile, the right wingers are wasting no time crying about how illegal immigrants are going to hand the Dems victory.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/illegal-immigrants-could-elect-hillary-clinton-213216
Meanwhile, the right wingers are wasting no time crying about how illegal immigrants are going to hand the Dems victory.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/illegal-immigrants-could-elect-hillary-clinton-213216
They're getting their excuses in early i see.
Moreover, their fears about immigration are probably well founded, at least in terms of legal immigrants who can vote, tend not to identify with the crackpot GOP of today.
They're getting their excuses in early i see.
Moreover, their fears about immigration are probably well founded, at least in terms of legal immigrants who can vote, tend not to identify with the crackpot GOP of today.
Tbh the article raised a good point, regarding the Electoral College, which is a pathetic excuse of a system anyway. Regardless, the GOP should ask the question why it's getting harder and harder for them to win presidential election.
Expect them all to invoke the ghost of Reagan and cry at every opportunity when Clinton's number goes up.
Its definitely not an ideal system but both parties have adjusted to make the best of it, and in this case the Dems have the advantage since most new American citizens don't care for the likes of Huckabee, Cruz, Paul, Jindal and their ilk. In fact, even without the immigrant factor, the GOP are just demographically on the wane in terms of evolving social norms.
Forget the bible thumping crazies, how can any self respecting woman vote for Rubio or Bush, who are both against abortion even in life threatening situation is beyond me.
Agreed, and these issues will come front and center if its Rubio or Bush vs Hillary.
Trump apparently got ahold of a pic of Rubio as a kid....
He nails Rubio. He does look lightweight.
Trump looks strangely like Biden in that photo.
And the language of the ad, Jesus, you wouldn't be surprised if it was written by a fifth grader.
And the language of the ad, Jesus, you wouldn't be surprised if it was written by a fifth grader.
It's not even funny but I am still laughing.This guy.Senate candidate in Florida admits drinking goat blood
- 5 October 2015
- From the sectionUS & Canada
Image copyrightAugustus Sol Invictus
Image caption"I sacrificed an animal to the god of the wilderness," Augustus Sol Invictus said
A Florida candidate for US Senate has come under criticism after it emerged that he once killed a goat and drank its blood.
Augustus Sol Invictus admits he "sacrificed" the animal as part of a pagan ritual, but it was not "sadistic" as some of his critics have alleged.
The Libertarian Party candidate is unlikely to win the seat.
Adrian Wyllie, the state party's chairman, has resigned to draw attention to Invictus' candidacy.
In 2013, Invictus walked from central Florida to the Mojave Desert and spent a week there fasting. When he returned to Florida, he killed the goat to give thanks.
"I did sacrifice a goat. I know that's probably a quibble in the mind of most Americans," he told the Associated Press news agency.
"I sacrificed an animal to the god of the wilderness ... Yes, I drank the goat's blood."
'Fascist'
Mr Wyllie said Invictus holds extreme views and brutally dismembered the goat.
"He's a self-proclaimed fascist. He's promoting a second civil war," Mr Wyllie said. "This guy has no place in the Libertarian Party."
Mr Wyllie, who unsuccessfully ran as a Libertarian for the governor of Florida last year, fears the Invictus campaign will stunt the party's recent gains.
Invictus called Mr Wyllie's allegations a "smear campaign". He said although white supremacists support his candidacy, he is not a racist.
The 32-year-old lawyer changed his name to the Latin phrase that means "majestic unconquered sun". He declined to tell a reporter his old name.
Wait.... That's not his birth name, surely?
Edit: nvm, read the last paragraph
Edit: nvm, read the last paragraph
Nappy time
EDIT: 'Augustus Sol Invictus' deary deary me
EDIT: 'Augustus Sol Invictus' deary deary me
Tastes like chicken.
Busted!
Oddly enough, I think this one may wind up haunting Trump if Rubio catches up with him, at which point Marco will use it as a rallying point.
Presumably he can re-use it against hillary with never hire a woman to do a man's job
I don't get why Trump is so popular, the guy is crazy!
Not if, when. Trump's number after peaking at 30% has steadily decreased. 70% of Republicans still have enough sense about them never to vote for Trump.
Yep, its basically been reduced to a 3 or 4 person race. Carson, despite being just behind Trump in most polls, will gradually go down and Rubio will come up to replace him.
Sure, but it is interesting to see if they will go for Rubio or for Bush.
I think that Rubio has a higher probability of winning against Clinton, than Bush.
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