2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Does not need that many votes... A few % in a few swing states
If he focused his money and time on a few swing states he could virtually guarantee a Republican loss
At some point the small% chance he could win with the party behind him may start to look better than the likley defeat if he goes independent
If he does well once the primaries start I'm sure there will be Republican party pollsters crunching those numbers
 
sun_tzu said:
Didn't you say before there was no way he would waste his money as an independent?

I have always said I think he will run (be that on the ticket (possibly even a v.p) or as an independent)

With his soundbite friendly rhetoric I think he could run a reasonable campaign for less than people think (and the value added back to brand Trump would effectively reduce the outlay further)
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It's not so much running as an independent, its the leverage of threatening to run as an independent will get him. He should've never made the silly pledge about not running as an independent, as I think he will legitimately feel hard done by, by the GOP establishment once primaries are finished and consider an independent run.
 
Revan said:
Is there any chance that a third party can get a lot of votes in the main election?

I hope it'll happen though. It would divide the votes of right wing people, and give Clinton an easy victory.
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They can't get enough votes to win, but they can definitely get enough to change the outcome of the election, which is why the GOP establishment are bricking it with Trump.
 
As an example - consider the 2000 election where Ralph Nader, running for the Green Party, got nearly 2.5m votes in the general election. Well obviously, Bush won the election by a mere several hundred votes after the Florida voting debacle. Had Nader not run, Gore would've been President by a comfortable margin, and things like the Iraq War would not have taken place, the war in Afghanistan would've been wound down, there may have been more regulation in the financial markets to avoid the great recession, and domestic policy would've been different. In 2016, the future of the Supreme Court looms large - if the GOP win and one or two Supreme Court justices retire or die during the Republican President's term, he can then stack the court with one or two conservative justices who will set on the bench for a generation. If the Dems get the White House, then its quite likely one or two Dem leaning Justices will be nominated, which will have a massive impact on issues like campaign finance reform, social issues (abortion, gay rights etc), and a variety of other topics.
 
Hillary is beginning to steady her campaign. That email business was handled very poorly by her. But it looks very much like she did not do anything wrong.

I like that the only viable candidate they have, Bush is languishing so far in the polls. And now with the lunatics having taken over the house.....The Republicans are toast.
 
Unfortunately the poll only compares results from its predecessor poll in July apparently. It would be good to get some polls between the GOP debates since that's when the Trump phenomenon has been at its peak.
 
Silva said:
That looks great for Bernie, considering he supposedly had no chance anyway.
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Its more so an indication of Hillary's numbers going down because of email gate than enthusiasm over Sanders, as well as the reality that fringe candidates make more noise during the earliest part of election cycles, only to fade quickly once establishment backing kicks in.
 
Red Dreams said:
Hillary is beginning to steady her campaign. That email business was handled very poorly by her. But it looks very much like she did not do anything wrong.

I like that the only viable candidate they have, Bush is languishing so far in the polls. And now with the lunatics having taken over the house.....The Republicans are toast.
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The email thing has gone quiet because the investigation is on going but nothing new has come out. The FBI is retrieving emails off the servers and whether anything comes from it remains to be seen. It could be nothing, it could be something but have little effect or it could still feck her over.
 
JustAFan said:
The email thing has gone quiet because the investigation is on going but nothing new has come out. The FBI is retrieving emails off the servers and whether anything comes from it remains to be seen. It could be nothing, it could be something but have little effect or it could still feck her over.
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She will benefit from her testimony to Congress...under oath. Whatever there is in her emails, it would not be anything that is a threat to National Security...like outing an American covert operative for example.

And here is the key factor, the election will be decided not by Hillary's mistakes on her emails , but by how far right the Republicans have moved. The simple fact is you cannot win the White House without the non-white vote. The GOP to win the nomination are obliged to castrate non-white voters. Just look at the candidates who are rising.....what do they have in common.

And finally it is simple math. There are lot more democrats than there are republicans. An ordinary turnout is all they need, for a democrat to win.

A democrat, more than likely Hillary Clinton (not my choice btw) will be the next President.
 
crappycraperson said:
So is it fair to say that Jeb Bush has no chance of getting the nomination now?
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Haven't even had any delegates handed out yet, everything to play for all round. Polls are generally up and downy, and no-ones taken a big lead in endorsements yet (Bush does lead those, though).
 
Raoul said:
He has the best chance of getting the nomination, followed closely by Rubio.
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Rubio might be a very dangerous person IMO. He can divide the latino vote, and Clinton doesn't look at her best when debating with young people.

I think that GOP has the best chance of winning with Rubio as their candidate. Unfortunately, I think that he is a right winger lunatic so hoping that it will be some other lunatic who doesn't have a chance of winning (my dream scenario would be Trump getting the nomination, with Palin being in the ticket). And then getting humiliated in the general election.
 
Revan said:
Rubio might be a very dangerous person IMO. He can divide the latino vote, and Clinton doesn't look at her best when debating with young people.

I think that GOP has the best chance of winning with Rubio as their candidate. Unfortunately, I think that he is a right winger lunatic so hoping that it will be some other lunatic who doesn't have a chance of winning (my dream scenario would be Trump getting the nomination, with Palin being in the ticket). And then getting humiliated in the general election.
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You're right about that, he would indeed divide the Latino vote and also has decent Tea Party credentials since he got elected during that period. That said, I don't know if he will have enough horses to get the nomination within his own party with Bush seemingly the establishment choice if he can get his act together. But you are right that Rubio and maybe Kasich (although that wouldn't be a likely combination) could probably win the Presidency. A lot of course also hinges on how Hillary fares as a candidate. She really needs to get her act together and start defining herself.
 
I´m sure if Clinton is the nominee she will choose Julian Castro as her running mate, as might Bernie, and that will erase much of the little support that Rubio would have in the Latino community. Remember, Rubio is a Republican and Latinos know very very well where they stand on immigration. Plus, as I can attest to from my own extended family in the US, Rubio is seen as quite the weasel. Everyone knows he lied about his family coming to the US to escape Castro (they came years before), and he´s seen as a bit of a traitor on the issue of immigration. I don´t think he´s is very well liked in the Latino community outside the typical right wing old Cuban.
 
There's also the issue that Latinos don't care for GOP policies and that Rubio has been on the wrong side of Cuba policy compared to Cuban youth, who are increasingly for liberalization with Havana.
 
Nobby style said:
Yeah, if Rubio gets the nomination, how is he going to tread that immigration line? Appealing to the right wing base, yet without appearing as the ultimate traitor and hypocrite to Latinos. Not a good position.
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He will get hammered on all sorts of fronts if he makes to the Gen. Even now, the likes of Fiorina are getting a lot more scrutiny after having risen in the polls. She will get torched on her business record, fibbing about abortion, and now apparently she's come out in favor of waterboarding. Plenty of ammo to work with.
 
Raoul said:
He will get hammered on all sorts of fronts if he makes to the Gen. Even now, the likes of Fiorina are getting a lot more scrutiny after having risen in the polls. She will get torched on her business record, fibbing about abortion, and now apparently she's come out in favor of waterboarding. Plenty of ammo to work with.
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Chuck Todd did a good job on both Hillary and Fiorina. Hillary looked like she could be there all day taking the shots. But Fiorina was reeling because she could not keep a straight face keeping up with her lies.

btw I noticed Carson's numbers were almost as high as Trumps...probably because of his comments that a Muslim could not be the President.
 
Rubio will win if nominated. Clinton's H2H versus all the Republicans (bar Trump) are shaky and ave been on a downward trend for onths, and while I believe Carson and Fiorina will be exposed in the general election, I don't see Rubio being weakened easily.
And he will eat into at least a small part of her votebase, and will surely win Florida. NC is a Republican lock too I think.
 
berbatrick said:
Rubio will win if nominated. Clinton's H2H versus all the Republicans (bar Trump) are shaky and ave been on a downward trend for onths, and while I believe Carson and Fiorina will be exposed in the general election, I don't see Rubio being weakened easily.
And he will eat into at least a small part of her votebase, and will surely win Florida. NC is a Republican lock too I think.
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This is barely Oct 2015, not Oct 2016. The Gen. Election is still one year away and a lot of things might change. Hillary's number was worn down a lot by the email business but after Jan next year when the last batch is out it'll subside, and the focus of the media moves on to the eventual Rep. Nominee. Assuming she becomes the Dem. Nominee, it'll be business as usual. An endorsement from old Barry and Oprah and the blacks will turn out for her, and a pick of Julian Castro for VP is enough to safeguard the Hispanic votes. Obama won in 2012 with just 34% of the white votes and quite comfortably, I can see the trend continues.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
This is barely Oct 2015, not Oct 2016. The Gen. Election is still one year away and a lot of things might change. Hillary's number was worn down a lot by the email business but after Jan next year when the last batch is out it'll subside, and the focus of the media moves on to the eventual Rep. Nominee. Assuming she becomes the Dem. Nominee, it'll be business as usual. An endorsement from old Barry and Oprah and the blacks will turn out for her, and a pick of Julian Castro for VP is enough to safeguard the Hispanic votes. Obama won in 2012 with just 34% of the white votes and quite comfortably, I can see the trend continues.
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good analysis. There is nothing in this email business. Similar to Benghazi....
 
All the dog whistling by the GOP aside, I often wonder if Hillary truly wants the gig this time around. She looks much happier trotting around giving speech and selling books. Don't know how much of this is wanting to leave behind a legacy and how much about taking one for the team.
 
New batch of emails released, the classification system seems a clusterfeck

The other message deemed "SECRET" in Wednesday's release is only classified in a technical sense. The document, forwarded to Clinton by Deputy Chief of Staff Huma Abedin, is a transcript of a June 15, 2008 Mideast peace negotiating session between the U.S., Israel and Palestinian officials. The transcript was obtained from anonymous sources by Al Jazeera in 2011 and published on the news outlet's website.

It appears Abedin, now the vice chairwoman of Clinton's campaign, got the transcript from State officials who downloaded it off the Internet and were debating how to respond to the leak. The decision to later classify the document may reflect the fact that the U.S. government has never formally acknowledged the accuracy of the slew of Mideast peace process-related documents Al Jazeera posted.
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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...state-department-release-214246#ixzz3nGPB0bz6
 
The email and Benghazi things are a big deal IMHO. Ask the vast majority of the population what HC did as secretary of state and those are the only two things average Joe will know, never mind remember. I've asked some quite political people and they struggle to come up with something.
 
Trump back on top in the USA Today / Suffolk poll.

Beginning to think he has a chance at winning the Republican nomination, mainly because his opponents are weak.


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Raoul said:
I wouldn't take any of the Republican candidate v Hillary type polls seriously this early.
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More than the polls it's the trend. She hasn't had a good upward trend in any poll, primary or general, except vs Trump nationally. And given that she's hugely likely to win the nomination...

EDIT: To expand on that, Sanders, has very comparable leads (in Wisconsin) over the Republican candidates to what Hillary has (+13, +10, +19! for Sanders vs +8, +12, +14 for Hillary when paired with Rubio, Bush, Trump)
 
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There's a good to fair chance Hillary will lose Iowa and New Hampshire, since both states are demographically perfect for someone like Sanders, but her campaign has built up an enormous organisation in the South to take the black votes and win the heavily populated Southern conservative states, the same strategy that won Obama the 08 nomination despite her getting the most votes. It's a numbers game at this point and unless there's an indictment from the FBI over the email business, I don't see her losing. Biden might pose a credible threat if he decides to jump in but party elites have by and large rallied around Hillary, as the endorsements so far show.

So that leaves the Gen.Election. Very scary looking at the polls right now but again, we have to remember this whole thing is barely even getting out of the block. If, by miracles (or the most comically sordid luck imaginable), the Trumpster wins the Rep. nomination, short of killing babies and eating them, Hillary will sail to the White House without even breaking a sweat. The GOP establishment doesn't want that to happen, of course, so the end game for them will probably be Bush or Rubio as the nominee + Kasich as VP pick to carry Florida and Ohio. However, with the crazy teabaggers screaming for attention, it's more likely they will have to include an outsider candidate as VP, and in that scenario, that may as well be a woman to counter the Dems on women' votes. So, Bush/Rubio+ Fiorina. The problem is there is just as much baggage with this lot as it is with Hillary, so there won't be a shortage of ammunition for the Dems to work with. It'll be a very long negative campaign from both sides, with neither coming out looking any good, but I still expect the Dems to win, if only because the electoral map has swung heavily in their favour during the last 10 years.

The more interesting race in 2016 will be in the Senate. Minimum of 9 and up to 13 seats may be changed. If the Dems win the presidency AND majority in the Senate, then the world just might be spared another Middle East clusterfeck, and with up to 3 SCOTUS nominations in the next 8 years, it's imperative there's a liberal president in the White House. 2 more conservative judges can undo years of effort and progress in socially contentious issues.
 
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