2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Another national poll, this time from Ipsos/Reuters echoes the earlier CNN/ORC poll in showing Clinton's lead is shrinking.

All voters:

Clinton: 35%
Sanders: 23%
Biden: 12%
O'Malley: 2%
Cuomo: 2%
Webb: 1%
Gillibrand: 1%
Chafee: 1%
Wouldn't vote: 24%

Among Democrats only:

Clinton: 42%
Sanders: 28%
Biden: 14%
O'Malley: 3%
Cuomo: 2%
Webb: *%
Gillibrand: *%
Chafee: 1%
Wouldn't vote: 10%

Among Independents only:

Clinton: 28%
Sanders: 18%
Biden: 8%
O'Malley: *%
Cuomo: 2%
Webb: 2%
Gillibrand: 2%
Chafee: 1%
Wouldn't vote: 37%

And when the options are limited to the top 3,

Total:

Clinton: 39%
Sanders: 25%
Biden: 16%
Wouldn't vote: 20%

Among Democrats Only:

Clinton: 48%
Sanders: 29%
Biden: 19%
Wouldn't vote: 4%

Among Independents Only:

Clinton: 26%
Sanders: 26%
Biden: 11%
Wouldn't vote: 37%

FromTheBench said:
Did the Democrat debate get postponed ? Or am i getting confused ?
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The Democratic debate is scheduled for 13th October.
 
The fact that Biden, who is currently not running, is polling so high, suggests trouble ahead for Clinton. Most of the people who are saying Biden should be on board with Hillary but obviously aren't for one reason or another. If he were to join the race it would be fantastic for Sanders since Biden would effectively split the Hillary vote.
 
This is an interesting analysis on 538 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/#endorsements

Seems to be a fairly accurate predictor, given that even Obama's relative insurgence was preceded by a decent level of support. This time round at the same juncture, it's Hillary vs no-one. Whilst her campaign does seem to be losing steam somewhat, it's still going to take a hell of an effort to beat her, and it would be Biden rather than Sanders that does it.
 
Ubik said:
This is an interesting analysis on 538 - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/#endorsements

Seems to be a fairly accurate predictor, given that even Obama's relative insurgence was preceded by a decent level of support. This time round at the same juncture, it's Hillary vs no-one. Whilst her campaign does seem to be losing steam somewhat, it's still going to take a hell of an effort to beat her, and it would be Biden rather than Sanders that does it.
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Trouble is she still has to win the primaries, where Sanders seems to be pulling in front, which of course means little this far away from when they vote.
 
Raoul said:
Trouble is she still has to win the primaries, where Sanders seems to be pulling in front, which of course means little this far away from when they vote.
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In New Hampshire and Iowa, which are demographically perfect for Sanders. She's still approaching 50% nationally and that's with Biden there. And this is after getting a lot of heat lately regarding the emails. Silver's point that what the media brand "momentum" is actually just different demographics bringing up different results in states is also quite convincing, so I don't think her potentially losing the Iowa caucus and NH primary would harm her long term, unless it caused her backers to get scared and jump over to Biden. Either way, can't see the Dem establishment going with Sanders.
 
Ubik said:
In New Hampshire and Iowa, which are demographically perfect for Sanders. She's still approaching 50% nationally and that's with Biden there. And this is after getting a lot of heat lately regarding the emails. Silver's point that what the media brand "momentum" is actually just different demographics bringing up different results in states is also quite convincing, so I don't think her potentially losing the Iowa caucus and NH primary would harm her long term, unless it caused her backers to get scared and jump over to Biden. Either way, can't see the Dem establishment going with Sanders.
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Yes that's the conundrum at the moment. She is fading quickly with no establishment candidate present to pick up her votes, unless Biden runs and still he's a bit too expired to get people excited. Hillary has also been picking up a lot of delegate votes to where she will probably wrap up the nomination earlier than expected, but not without a lot of drama.
 
FromTheBench said:
What time is the republican debate today ?

How many hours left ?
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6 p.m. ET – Republican presidential debate (bottom four candidates): Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Grahamand George Pataki.

8 p.m. ET – Republican president debate (top 11 candidates):

 
Raoul said:
6 p.m. ET – Republican presidential debate (bottom four candidates): Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Grahamand George Pataki.

8 p.m. ET – Republican president debate (top 11 candidates):

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Fiorina looking pretty lonely out there.

And so much insanity in one room.
 
Anyone pathetic enough to be watching the warmup act? It sounds like it must be such a sorry affair.
 
Should just be able to stream it on the website but I'm just getting an error at the moment...
 
The trouble with Trump is that you can't pick out just one ridiculous thing he says, it's all amazing.
 
The Iranian deal the new "I will repeal Obamacare on day 1!"
 
Jeb Bush is like someone's designed a slightly less absurd version of GW. More normal head, less high pitched voice, less dumb stuff said.

Trump back on, excellent.
 
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