And yet no candidate even gives lip service to the working class and poor. It's all about the middle class. Are we to conclude from the lack of attention paid to the issue by the media and politicians that it is vapid and isn't worth talking about?
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are here to talk about United's dreadful home defeat at the hands of Big Ange's Tottenham Hotspur. Should this have been the end of Ten Hag? How long does he actually have left? And does Nik finally want ETH out?!
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And yet no candidate even gives lip service to the working class and poor. It's all about the middle class. Are we to conclude from the lack of attention paid to the issue by the media and politicians that it is vapid and isn't worth talking about?
Sanders does, and I'll bet Hillary will once she actually talks. If there is voter sentiment you can bet politicians will talk about it. As opposed to Presidential age limits which no one gives a flying feck about.
Sanders within 7 points of Hillary in Iowa.
http://news.yahoo.com/bernie-sanders-people-responding-message-161520074.html
http://news.yahoo.com/bernie-sanders-people-responding-message-161520074.html
Bad news for the Clintons... Time to switch focus to chelsea 2026Sanders within 7 points of Hillary in Iowa.
http://news.yahoo.com/bernie-sanders-people-responding-message-161520074.html
Trump vs Sanders would be quite a reality show.
Sanders within 7 points of Hillary in Iowa.
http://news.yahoo.com/bernie-sanders-people-responding-message-161520074.html
What's strange is Clinton registered a +34% lead on Sanders in an Iowa poll of caucus-goers by Suffolk University, Aug 20-24.
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_25_2015_marginals.pdf
This new poll was conducted approximately at the same time (Aug 23-26) and Bernie's shrunk the gap by 27 points here. What could explain this huge disparity?
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...15/08/29/iowa-poll-democrats-august/71387664/
I think its a mix of Sanders quietly talking about issues that progressives care about (ie firing up the base) and Clinton getting hurt by lingering narratives of whether laws were broken related to her email-gate, as well as the fact that she is generally not talking about the issues.
Well my point is that would be understandable if there was a reasonable amount of time between the conducting of the two polls, but there isn't.
One of them is a f*ck-up. The next Iowa poll will tell us which one I suppose.
Such a gap surely means a sampling/methodology issue.
From what I remember reading on 538 a month or two back, Iowa and New Hampshire are supposed to be far and away Sanders' best states demographically.
If she loses Iowa and New Hampshire to Sanders within an 8 day period, she will struggle going forward imo.
I've been reading articles on the Labour contest and the US primaries, and including Corbyn, Sanders, and Trump, all ridiculed for their "extreme" and ridiculous positions, this is the single most idiotic thing I can possibly read:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ker-canada-border-wall-immigration-terrorists
I wonder if he will be treated with the same sneers the left-wing populists are getting having said this.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ker-canada-border-wall-immigration-terrorists
I wonder if he will be treated with the same sneers the left-wing populists are getting having said this.
Didn't one of the Republican candidates call Putin a criminal the other day... It wasn't even Trump... I take it diplomacy is not seen as an essential skill these days?
Here's the article in question from Silver - http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/
They've also had a little group discussion on Bernie's overall chances - http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/this-is-how-bernie-sanders-could-win/ - and a pretty great analysis of the state of the race in terms of Bernie's prospects and Biden's likelihood of running from the other day - http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...out-a-joe-biden-presidential-run-is-malarkey/
Whilst the UK election and Labour leadership race has put me off predictions for a while, if not life, the evidence in the above suggests this is still heavily Clinton's to lose.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/artic...eo-music-awards-he-wants-to-run-for-president
Kim Kardashian for first lady !
Kim Kardashian for first lady !
Trump pulls out the ever present, finely tuned Republican race card, but this time against fellow Republican Bush. The irony being being, Bush´s papa pulled it out in the 98 elections to turn around a sagging campaign. The trusty race card, pulled out on a daily basis, from the Republican party, to Fox News, to Talk Radio . . . but boy, if Al Sharpton or one of those groups protesting police shootings dare take it out, god forbid, patriotic Americans lose their shit.
Trump vs Bush
The original scary-whitey-for-votes by Papa Bush
Trump vs Bush
The original scary-whitey-for-votes by Papa Bush
Looks like I was right to doubt the veracity of that Des Moines poll showing Sanders making up huge ground on Clinton in Iowa.
A new Iowa poll shows Clinton still holds a 25 point lead on him.
http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-E...ads-but-Sanders-Gains,-Loras-College-Pol.aspx
A new Iowa poll shows Clinton still holds a 25 point lead on him.
http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-E...ads-but-Sanders-Gains,-Loras-College-Pol.aspx
I think this writer is on to something. Trump obviously appeals to the massive white entitlement crowd in conservative America, but his popularity and appeal could have to do with, although being a big business dude, he´s throwing things out that are very against the modern Republican corporate bootlicking dribble down economic orthodoxy, such as raising taxes on the wealthy, not minding paying more taxes, hands off medicare and medicaid, speaking the truth about what disasters Bush and Cheney were and the opposition to the Iraq War, and such apostasy as saying, "the middle class built this country, not the hedge fund guys, but I know people in hedge funds that pay almost nothing and it’s ridiculous, OK?”
I think he´s finding his people in the huge swath of Republicans who constantly vote against their own economic interests because they identify with the undying bigoted white entitlement schtick, USA #1 rah rah, and all that bogus Republican propaganda about family values and strong individual John Wayne bullshit and the wealthy as godly job creators, et al. Whereas the other clowns hardly distinguish themselves from one another as dull, bigoted corporate water carriers ready to lick any billionaire bum that will be rewarded by sugar daddy millions. He could even appeal to many moderate democrats as well who aren´t so down with liberal social cause and the Black Lives Matter movement.
http://www.salon.com/2015/09/03/the..._actually_the_least_terrifying_gop_candidate/
The Shocking Truth About Donald Trump: He´s Actually the Least Terrifying GOP Candidate
With all of the outrageous and downright offensive remarks that have been regurgitated by Donald Trump over the past few months, the most logical forecast made by political analysts was that his campaign would implode, sooner than later, as so many have before. Like the stock market, Trump 2016 seems to be based on a bubble of irrational emotions — in this case fear — and at any moment, that bubble could burst. Today, however, it’s looking more and more like Trump’s lead in the polls is not going to burst anytime soon, and that the man who seems to be the perfect manifestation of a stereotypical American — a loud, obnoxious buffoon — actually has a chance of winning the GOP nomination for president.
This is scary to think about. Not just because of his virulent xenophobia and nationalism, but because of how damaging a President Trump would be to America’s reputation in the world. At the same time, maybe it will take a joke like Trump — who, just a reminder, once released his birth certificate to prove that his father was not an orangutan — to show just how much of a farce American democracy really is. Trump is creating a dangerous new nationalist movement that is absolutely adored by white supremacists and Tea Party conservatives alike. His big personality may be a bridge between the more extremist right wingers who preach intolerance and hate, and the moderate conservatives dedicated to blindly loving their country.
That being said, if we take a look at Trump, beyond all of the controversial remarks from him and his supporters (i.e. “Go back to your country!”) and the despicable attack on immigrants, it becomes quite clear that a president Trump would actually be less dangerous than, say, a president Walker. In fact, just about every other major GOP candidate is probably more threatening to progress than Trump.
This is because Donald Trump isn’t really a part of the GOP. He doesn’t depend on corporate funding and is more concerned with his own ego than the party he is currently running in. While his unfiltered remarks have gotten all of the media’s attention, he has also made certain comments that would have probably been enough to kill any other GOP candidates campaign.
Take, for example, his defense of Planned Parenthood. In the midst of the hit job on the women’s health organization, as every other candidate was jumping on the bandwagon to defund the entire organization, Trump correctly said that the abortion services were a very small part of Planned Parenthood, and that they do undeniably important work for women. Compare this to the supposedly moderate Jeb Bush, who said that the organization is “not actually doing women’s health issues. They’re involved in something way different than that,” which PolitiFact.com fittingly rated “Pants on Fire.”
When it comes to economic issues, Trump is also very different than his GOP competitors, and is more or less running against the GOP orthodoxy when it comes to taxes. Last week he almost sounded like a progressive when talking about the tax code:
“I would change it. I would simplify it. I would take carried interest out, and I would let people making hundreds of millions of dollars a year pay some tax, because right now they are paying very little tax and I think it’s outrageous. I want to lower taxes for the middle class.”
When asked about paying more taxes himself, he affirmed his willingness:
“I do very well, I don’t mind paying some taxes. The middle class is getting clobbered in this country. You know the middle class built this country, not the hedge fund guys, but I know people in hedge funds that pay almost nothing and it’s ridiculous, OK?”
Compare this to the basic GOP talking point of lowering all taxes, including those for the hedge funds guys. When Rand Paul and Ben Carson come out with a flat tax program, they promote it is a gift to all taxpayers — especially the middle class — but really it is a gift to the richest of the rich. Trump is running against this GOP dogma and the creepy Grover Norquist’s “Taxpayer Protection Pledge,” which has long had a hold on the GOP. Whether a candidate promising to raise taxes on the ultra-rich will be able to withstand this force will be interesting to see.
Beyond these issues, Trump has opposed cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and also, as was made so very clear at the first debate, previously supported universal healthcare and opposed the war in Iraq.
Trump’s bluntness and independence, along with his big mouth and unapologetic nativism have so far proven to have lasting power, at least with the GOP base. The reactionary movement that has grown louder over the past few months, however, may end up being much more dangerous that Trump himself — embracing his nativism and nationalism while ignoring some of his saner policies that could actually help the middle class.
Trump winning the primaries is still a long shot. And he’s even more of a long shot to win the national election. But the scary thing is that America would probably be better off with a president Trump than any of the other major GOP contenders, who are either puppets for their corporate masters or wholly controlled by their dogma (i.e. Mike Huckabee’s Christian chauvinism).
The fact that Trump is the most progressive of GOP candidates, at least when it comes to certain policies, simply shows how very backwards the GOP actually is. Of course, Trump’s supporters don’t much care about policies, and this may be why he is still doing so well in the GOP field. According to a recent poll, 66 percent of Trump supporters believe that President Obama is a Muslim, while 61 percent are not convinced that he is American born. So the majority of his supporters are basically conspiracy theorists operating in the fantasy world of Trumpland. They don’t really know what he supports, but they know that he’s tough and doesn’t seem to like immigrants or Muslims — so he’s their man. Again, the nativist movement that Trump has given energy to may be much more dangerous than Trump himself — but when compared to the GOP at large, Trump is only a minor villain to progress.
I think he´s finding his people in the huge swath of Republicans who constantly vote against their own economic interests because they identify with the undying bigoted white entitlement schtick, USA #1 rah rah, and all that bogus Republican propaganda about family values and strong individual John Wayne bullshit and the wealthy as godly job creators, et al. Whereas the other clowns hardly distinguish themselves from one another as dull, bigoted corporate water carriers ready to lick any billionaire bum that will be rewarded by sugar daddy millions. He could even appeal to many moderate democrats as well who aren´t so down with liberal social cause and the Black Lives Matter movement.
http://www.salon.com/2015/09/03/the..._actually_the_least_terrifying_gop_candidate/
The Shocking Truth About Donald Trump: He´s Actually the Least Terrifying GOP Candidate
With all of the outrageous and downright offensive remarks that have been regurgitated by Donald Trump over the past few months, the most logical forecast made by political analysts was that his campaign would implode, sooner than later, as so many have before. Like the stock market, Trump 2016 seems to be based on a bubble of irrational emotions — in this case fear — and at any moment, that bubble could burst. Today, however, it’s looking more and more like Trump’s lead in the polls is not going to burst anytime soon, and that the man who seems to be the perfect manifestation of a stereotypical American — a loud, obnoxious buffoon — actually has a chance of winning the GOP nomination for president.
This is scary to think about. Not just because of his virulent xenophobia and nationalism, but because of how damaging a President Trump would be to America’s reputation in the world. At the same time, maybe it will take a joke like Trump — who, just a reminder, once released his birth certificate to prove that his father was not an orangutan — to show just how much of a farce American democracy really is. Trump is creating a dangerous new nationalist movement that is absolutely adored by white supremacists and Tea Party conservatives alike. His big personality may be a bridge between the more extremist right wingers who preach intolerance and hate, and the moderate conservatives dedicated to blindly loving their country.
That being said, if we take a look at Trump, beyond all of the controversial remarks from him and his supporters (i.e. “Go back to your country!”) and the despicable attack on immigrants, it becomes quite clear that a president Trump would actually be less dangerous than, say, a president Walker. In fact, just about every other major GOP candidate is probably more threatening to progress than Trump.
This is because Donald Trump isn’t really a part of the GOP. He doesn’t depend on corporate funding and is more concerned with his own ego than the party he is currently running in. While his unfiltered remarks have gotten all of the media’s attention, he has also made certain comments that would have probably been enough to kill any other GOP candidates campaign.
Take, for example, his defense of Planned Parenthood. In the midst of the hit job on the women’s health organization, as every other candidate was jumping on the bandwagon to defund the entire organization, Trump correctly said that the abortion services were a very small part of Planned Parenthood, and that they do undeniably important work for women. Compare this to the supposedly moderate Jeb Bush, who said that the organization is “not actually doing women’s health issues. They’re involved in something way different than that,” which PolitiFact.com fittingly rated “Pants on Fire.”
When it comes to economic issues, Trump is also very different than his GOP competitors, and is more or less running against the GOP orthodoxy when it comes to taxes. Last week he almost sounded like a progressive when talking about the tax code:
“I would change it. I would simplify it. I would take carried interest out, and I would let people making hundreds of millions of dollars a year pay some tax, because right now they are paying very little tax and I think it’s outrageous. I want to lower taxes for the middle class.”
When asked about paying more taxes himself, he affirmed his willingness:
“I do very well, I don’t mind paying some taxes. The middle class is getting clobbered in this country. You know the middle class built this country, not the hedge fund guys, but I know people in hedge funds that pay almost nothing and it’s ridiculous, OK?”
Compare this to the basic GOP talking point of lowering all taxes, including those for the hedge funds guys. When Rand Paul and Ben Carson come out with a flat tax program, they promote it is a gift to all taxpayers — especially the middle class — but really it is a gift to the richest of the rich. Trump is running against this GOP dogma and the creepy Grover Norquist’s “Taxpayer Protection Pledge,” which has long had a hold on the GOP. Whether a candidate promising to raise taxes on the ultra-rich will be able to withstand this force will be interesting to see.
Beyond these issues, Trump has opposed cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and also, as was made so very clear at the first debate, previously supported universal healthcare and opposed the war in Iraq.
Trump’s bluntness and independence, along with his big mouth and unapologetic nativism have so far proven to have lasting power, at least with the GOP base. The reactionary movement that has grown louder over the past few months, however, may end up being much more dangerous that Trump himself — embracing his nativism and nationalism while ignoring some of his saner policies that could actually help the middle class.
Trump winning the primaries is still a long shot. And he’s even more of a long shot to win the national election. But the scary thing is that America would probably be better off with a president Trump than any of the other major GOP contenders, who are either puppets for their corporate masters or wholly controlled by their dogma (i.e. Mike Huckabee’s Christian chauvinism).
The fact that Trump is the most progressive of GOP candidates, at least when it comes to certain policies, simply shows how very backwards the GOP actually is. Of course, Trump’s supporters don’t much care about policies, and this may be why he is still doing so well in the GOP field. According to a recent poll, 66 percent of Trump supporters believe that President Obama is a Muslim, while 61 percent are not convinced that he is American born. So the majority of his supporters are basically conspiracy theorists operating in the fantasy world of Trumpland. They don’t really know what he supports, but they know that he’s tough and doesn’t seem to like immigrants or Muslims — so he’s their man. Again, the nativist movement that Trump has given energy to may be much more dangerous than Trump himself — but when compared to the GOP at large, Trump is only a minor villain to progress.
I agree. Trump was always less dangerous than the other scum in the GOP.
He is a loud mouth.
He is a loud mouth.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
interesting polls.
PPP Polls were the best ones last Presidential election.
Sanders is within margin of error.
interesting polls.
PPP Polls were the best ones last Presidential election.
Sanders is within margin of error.
Trump is really rocketing nationally. See how quickly he closed the gap with Clinton: he's cut a 16 pt deficit to 2 pts, and there's no reason to believe he can't climb higher:
1. Clinton's handling of the emails thing
2. People know him, know he's an asshole, so more exposure isn't going to reveal anything new.
Sanders is doomed:
1. The sharp downward trend for Hillary, matched by Sanders going up, seems to have stopped, and they have stabilised at 50 and 25.
2. In polls vs the Repub candidates, Trump just overtook him (+2 from -2 a week ago) and again, as above, there's no reason for Trump to fall, but with a concerted smear campaign revolving around "socialist", I"m sure Sanders will go down nationally.
Biden's numbers are spectacularly good, he actually looks like the safest bet right now.
Another very interesting thing is Ben Carson; he's showing great numbers in many states, including NC, and he has virtually no unfavourables. Could also split the black vote in a national election? (he's tied with Clinton in the polls you just showed, the best of all Republicans). On the other hand, like with Sanders, the spotlight should harm him.
The other Republicans are collapsing everywhere, Sanders and Bush are virtually tied, and Rubio is the only other one with decent numbers vs Democrats.
At this (very early) stage, I'm predicting a Republican victory vs Hillary. She will win the nomination unless she collapses spectacularly, and there are seemingly enough anti-immigrant votes coupled with a steady deterioration of her image to get the Republicans through.
I just hope whichever asshole gets in doesn't decide to start cutting the NIH, I'll have to go home then! (I could totally see Trump saying NIH money shouldn't go to train foreign students, and he'd probably be right too)
1. Clinton's handling of the emails thing
2. People know him, know he's an asshole, so more exposure isn't going to reveal anything new.
Sanders is doomed:
1. The sharp downward trend for Hillary, matched by Sanders going up, seems to have stopped, and they have stabilised at 50 and 25.
2. In polls vs the Repub candidates, Trump just overtook him (+2 from -2 a week ago) and again, as above, there's no reason for Trump to fall, but with a concerted smear campaign revolving around "socialist", I"m sure Sanders will go down nationally.
Biden's numbers are spectacularly good, he actually looks like the safest bet right now.
Another very interesting thing is Ben Carson; he's showing great numbers in many states, including NC, and he has virtually no unfavourables. Could also split the black vote in a national election? (he's tied with Clinton in the polls you just showed, the best of all Republicans). On the other hand, like with Sanders, the spotlight should harm him.
The other Republicans are collapsing everywhere, Sanders and Bush are virtually tied, and Rubio is the only other one with decent numbers vs Democrats.
At this (very early) stage, I'm predicting a Republican victory vs Hillary. She will win the nomination unless she collapses spectacularly, and there are seemingly enough anti-immigrant votes coupled with a steady deterioration of her image to get the Republicans through.
I just hope whichever asshole gets in doesn't decide to start cutting the NIH, I'll have to go home then! (I could totally see Trump saying NIH money shouldn't go to train foreign students, and he'd probably be right too)
I think it's too early to say Clinton and Sanders have stabilised at 50 and 25. It's only been two weeks that this has stuck.
Clinton was at ~ 60 for 6 weeks straight. Then she was at ~ 55 for 4 weeks. I think we have to wait at least another 3 weeks before we can say they've plateaued (for now). The first debate is 5 weeks from now. Sanders needs to make his case very strongly when he gets the stage; and I think he will.
Clinton was at ~ 60 for 6 weeks straight. Then she was at ~ 55 for 4 weeks. I think we have to wait at least another 3 weeks before we can say they've plateaued (for now). The first debate is 5 weeks from now. Sanders needs to make his case very strongly when he gets the stage; and I think he will.
I'll admit I was not aware of this, I thought it was a steady decline. Still, as much as I'd love Sanders to win, I know it can't happen. There's a limit to his popularity in a historically anti-left country.
They can't be that anti-left; he's either beating the strongest Republicans in head-to-head polling (Trump, Bush) or is losing within the margin of error. Win the Dem nomination and he'll probably win the presidency.
I don't think Sanders has a snowballs chance. His polling numbers today are irrelevant to how he would fare in the primaries or the gen election when voters actually have to face the prospects of him winning.
Jebby Bush firing up his supporters. How another Bush is even being considered by the Republican party is beyond me. His brother´s admin crashes the economy, asleep at the wheel for the worst terrorist attack ever on US soil, gets and US bogged down in two trillion dollar endless wars (based on embarrassingly faulty info) while fecking up the middle east, and creates massive debt at home. And they would want to give another Bush another try??? Mind boggling. Between him and Trump, not to mention that creep, Scott Walker, just shows what a joke that party is.
@Raoul wanna bet?
I wouldn't go that far, but he isn't winning. I mean he has some chance.
And neither does Trump. The parties will move towards more establishment candidates at some point.
Bush Vs Clinton is still the most likely matchup.
Agreed. Primary season is usually driven by shouting and enthusiasm from each respective party base. Establishment candidates will eventually take over when the silliness dies down.
As for Sanders, he is quite civil but his age and platform are out of sync with American norms, which is why he will do no more than drive Hillary Clinton to adopt a few more progressive policies to keep the leftist base happy.
@Raoul wanna bet?
Bet what ? That Sanders will be the next President ? I doubt that very much.
14/1
6/1 to get the democratic nomination
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate
so if anybody does want to bet chuck your money at the bookies because the returns would be very high...
I think snowballs is about right to be honest - scarily i think president trump is a more realistic outcome at this moment.
I love it!!!
I love it!!!
woah there... we dont want him back...
Ha ha, understandable.
Well technically the real Native American is also a descendant of immigrants. Tongue firmly in cheek here of courseI love it!!!
Good point, paleface. 10,000 years ago they may, and I say may, have immigrated from other lands. Tongue snugly in cheek.
Yes - given that he wins the nomination (which I think is the harder task).
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