2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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If he doesn't mind Donald Trump becoming President, then yeah, he can do what he wants.
See above.
If they want to vote for a race-baiter, I'm going to call them a cnut. They have their opinion, I have mine. No tolerance for that shite.
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This
So 2 months of a non-contest are going to destroy her chances against the weakest opponent she could possibly hope for?
She has pivoted, simultaneously, if she waits a bit before pivoting she will lose 
The onus isn't on him to support her in the traditional way Dem candidates get behind their nominee. He is an outsider to the party and disagrees with much of the party's platform, in fact his working class populism is probably somewhat closer to Trump's narrative (China, jobs going overseas, NAFTA etc). If she wants Bernie's support she is going to have to do something to get it rather than sit back in coronation mode and expect him to deliver his flock to her.
Her pivoting is like United turning a corner..She has pivoted, simultaneously, if she waits a bit before pivoting she will lose
I've been saying that for a while. It's getting REALLY scary now.
You think you will be safe there? He's gonna feck the world, not just the USA. The man is a fecking imbecile. It's just a real shame that whoever the US elect affects the rest of the world. If it was just going to affect them then I would be pissing myself with laughter right now, whereas in truth I'm actually sincerely worried.
The way he has spoken about other countries and other faiths and races shows how thick he is, couple that with his unpredictability and complete lack of understanding and his temper and his ego and you have one very fecking scary combination. At the very least he could cause an insane amount of increased terrorist attacks, cause more terrorist networks like ISIS to form, and probably cause far more countries to fall out with the US and their allies. He's already spoken about there being no benefit from having troops and bases in South Korea. He's spoken about letting the Saudi's having Nukes, and refused to rule out nuking Europe because "it's a big place" That's Palin levels of stupidity, and it's dangerous.
The man is so fecking dumb it is untrue. He attacked Hillary a couple of days ago because she used the expression "going off the reservation" he went on to say that "the Indians were going wild over her saying it" FML! He really doesn't have a fecking clue.
I just hope that the USA isn't as stupid as this, obviously some are, but I just hope the majority are not.
TBF the overlap in the messages of Bernie and Trump is overstated. I did the isidewith.com and got Bernie 96% (I disagreed on farm subsidies and national education standards), Jill Stein 95% and Hillary 90%. A few libertarians at 25-45 and the actual GOP at <10%. Trump at 5% and Cruz at 1% (I wonder what it was).
But outside their promised policies, the overlap between Bernie and Hillary isn't that high. Outsider, anti-trade, anti-war...and even though Trump is none of those things he can make those claims too. And that's where the (IMO idiotic) Bernie/Trump voters come in.
True, Bernie and Trump are complete opposites, but there is a perception that both are tapping into working class sentiment, whether . Trump is already speaking favorably about Bernie to wind Hillary up before she locks up the nomination. I expect Trump to move back to the political center in a big way in the coming weeks.
I don't think it would, I made my prediction months back and won't change any time soon, but if the argument is that Bernie's hand is strong enough through leveraging his support to win concessions, it's predicated on the idea that being deprived of his support is dangerous for Clinton. So from Bernie's perspective, he has to be fine with President Trump. Or be confident his bluff won't be called. I think, for instance, it would be extremely useful to have President Obama be able to take off his neutral hat and start campaigning. I think it would be useful to have an extra couple of months to get the party and all Dem-leaners fully united. I think it would be useful to have an extra couple of months fundraising explicitly for the GE. But your mileage may vary.
As I said, he can do what he wants. As with all elections, as with Nader, there are consequences. And he chose to stand for the Democratic nomination, rather than as an outsider independent.
Since we're splitting hairs at this point:
Bernie himself has said (and I personally believe it's partly true) that an endorsement from him at the nomination will not be enough for many of his voters. Getting some movement from her will be symbolically important to wavering supporters and will add credibility to his endorsement.
Bernie himself has said (and I personally believe it's partly true) that an endorsement from him at the nomination will not be enough for many of his voters. Getting some movement from her will be symbolically important to wavering supporters and will add credibility to his endorsement.
Plenty of time for it no? We are looking at possibly another month of contests left.
Dem convention is 25th July, so if Sanders really is planning on making it "contested", there's nearer three months to go.
Nader was a different topic all together as he was in a completely different political party. She can get Bernie's support and probably get him to concede now so she can deal with Trump full time, but she is going to have to proactively make it happen rather than just sit there and pretend to be the anointed one.
Trump kind of reminds me of Putin, who saw chaos erupt in Ukraine and tried dipping his toes into Crimea. It worked, and then he just kept going with it because there's a large portion of the population that supports it.
Trump saw chaos in the GOP, gave it a go, and against all odds he's now the presumptive nominee with the support of large portions (uneducated parts) of the country.
Plus, both might have Aspergers...
Trump saw chaos in the GOP, gave it a go, and against all odds he's now the presumptive nominee with the support of large portions (uneducated parts) of the country.
Plus, both might have Aspergers...
Vast majority would fall in line behind him quick as anything.
But anyway, as I said...
She's pivoting regardless.
That's what makes him more dangerous though, it doesn't make him any more intelligent, or give him more world understanding, or give him more empathy or reduce his unpredictability or ego. It doesn't change what he has said or done. He's a fecking snake oil salesman, that's it. He's canny at ripping people off and at the moment he is doing exactly that to a large portion of the country.
"I won with women, I love winning with women" "We also won with Hispanics and African Americans, we won with everyone"
He's not only thick and extremely offensive, he's also exceptionally unlikeable.
Seriously @Raoul, can you honestly say he won't get elected? I really don't think you can be so sure anymore. I said the same as you, and predicted his implosion weeks ago, and I agreed it was due at many different times, but it hasn't happened yet, and it's not looking like it will come anytime soon. Also Hillary isn't exactly the most likeable opponent, nor is she trustworthy. Even her staunchest supporters must have to admit they can see why she could be seen as untrustworthy or unreliable, even if they don't feel it themselves.
Logic and rational thinking suggests that the majority of people are NOT that stupid, uneducated or pissed off, AND that he has pissed off enough women and various races and faiths for him not to be able to be elected, but I just don't think you can be so sure about that anymore.
So then it's not a worry, let him fight his irrelevant fight. You can't have it both ways.
Alternatively, I just want every base covered against a thundercnut like Trump. Who knows.
Bernie with a fighting talk on CNN. Basically saying he doesn't care what happens with the GOP, but he still sees a path to win. I personally can't see it, but the man has earned the right after 9 Million votes.
Why? Just because they don't like Clinton? Because they know she wants to become President just to serve her own interests, that she'll do whatever it takes to get into office?
It is more important to Hillary to get elected than it is to do the right thing. It is more important to Bernie to do the right thing than it is to get elected.
Bernie's views have been consistent for decades. He has held views and stuck by them even when they were unpopular. In 2002-03, when even the democrats were climbing over one another to vote for the war in Iraq, he voted against invading Iraq. He has been against fracking, trade agreements that take away jobs, PACs, special interests and lobbyists. He's been for equality for same sex people since the 80s as well.
Compare that to Billary. She flip-flops at every given opportunity and changes her views in accordance to which way the tide is flowing and the direction popular support is moving in.
She voted for the Iraq war, which was the most important US foreign policy decision in the past 30 years. She got it terribly wrong. $1.7 trillion of taxpayers money was spent on the war, money that could have been spent domestically. Even the UK ended up spending so much and they have nothing to show for it. She now says it was a 'mistake'. Well, as President you can't afford to make such horrific mistakes.
She was in favour of trade agreements like NAFTA etc, which resulted in jobs been lost to other countries. These agreements have been widely criticised over the years. So now she says she's against them. How very convenient.
Even on social issues, she flip flops. She was against same sex marriage till 2013 when she announced she's in favour of it.
She's a stooge for people and corporate interests that back her. She lacks political judgement which is the most vital quality that being President requires.
You do realise the people you quoted from reddit were saying they were going to vote Trump, right?
Actually, if you read the whole thread, they were talking about voting for Bernie to be the Democratic nominee so as to stop Trump as Bernie is defeating him head to head. If Hillary were to be the Democratic nominee, the overwhelming opinion was that it would be better to not vote at all (if Bernie doesn't run as as independent)
Which is a pretty idiotic move.
I have zero confidence that Hillary can actually beat Trump. I have a friend who is a staunch Republican supporter. He says he will vote for anyone who wins the Republican nomination and yes even if that is Trump. As long as people like this exist, I will have zero confidence.
I'd hate to go to a casino with some of you lot.
The Dems are in a better shape than 08. Clinton's campaign is headed by Obama's folks, they won't feck it up.
(Cue me joining in the panic in a couple of months
)
The Dems are in a better shape than 08. Clinton's campaign is headed by Obama's folks, they won't feck it up.
(Cue me joining in the panic in a couple of months
)I'm 80/20 confident Hillary will stumble across the goal line. It's all about the Electoral College and the only way to 270 for Trump is through Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's still early but it's very hard to see Trump actually taking Michigan and Pennsylvania and even Ohio is a reach.
Trump even trails Clinton in some polls in "red" states -- North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri and, shockingly (or maybe not, if you've actually even been there recently) Utah. These are states with progressive or at least somewhat liberal political streaks in them. Of those states, I take North Carolina off the map for Trump without question, I'd put Arizona leaning blue but have to give Trump Missouri and Utah in the end.
As for Republicans, there's no doubt Trump will start with a solid 2/3 of Reps voting for any Rep but more than a few Republicans will never vote for Trump. I'm one of them and have been asked repeatedly whether there is anything Trump could say to possibly turn me around. The answer is no. Reasonably reliable polling suggests about 25% of Republicans will not vote for Trump. I don't see that breaking down.
The real question is where will Bernie voters go. If they fall behind Hillary it's over for Donald. We'll see but I can't see Bernie voters supporting Trump. I can at least speak with some personal knowledge of Bernie voters in California and there's zero chance of of even 5% of them voting for Trump.
If the US is to avert the eternal shame of a Trump presidency it will be up to women, Latinos, blacks and Asians to make that happen. Voter registration numbers over the last 3 or 4 months suggest the "nonwhite" share of the electorate in November will reach at least 30% and if that proves to be the case Trump is done, fork in back.
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I'm expecting President Trump
7 or 8 percentage points difference are not enough. One would expect a much bigger gap if Trump is that scary!!
Hillary represents establishment and status quo
Hillary talks are less energetic and cliche.
Trump is a centrist on many issues
ISIS and Qaeda are around ( terrorist attack in the summer or close to the election? God forbid!!)
Sanders supporters reaction to losing??
The general inclination of Americans to vote for change: a republican after the democrats and vice versa.
etc....
7 or 8 percentage points difference are not enough. One would expect a much bigger gap if Trump is that scary!!
Hillary represents establishment and status quo
Hillary talks are less energetic and cliche.
Trump is a centrist on many issues
ISIS and Qaeda are around ( terrorist attack in the summer or close to the election? God forbid!!)
Sanders supporters reaction to losing??
The general inclination of Americans to vote for change: a republican after the democrats and vice versa.
etc....
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I can't believe this election has made me feel sympathy for the Zodiac killer. Please can we look back on this year as a dreadful mistake, rather than the beginning of a whole new level of ugly American politics.
If he's not going to be the candidate though then it's not his job to convert them. It's up to Clinton to ensure that she offers enough to actually tempt him to withdraw, and to his supporters to ensure they vote for her. I think it'd be utter stupidity for a Sanders supporter to switch to Trump, but not all of them are going to think that way and if Clinton intends to become president then it's her job to win them over...not Sanders', even though his help would certainly be appreciated.
I don't see why Sanders would just back down though with a whimper because of the threat of Trump. His entire campaign would've then been for nothing. He'll keep going in the hope that he can keep having an impact of some sort, and fair play to him.
While I think Clinton will still win, I do think there's a real danger of Trump managing to sweep up some of the anti-establishment vote that would've gone Democrat. Not just necessarily Sanders voters, but people in general who aren't particularly Republican but feel quite disillusioned with the current state of the country. Trump would be a dreadful solution, but whatever your views of her, Clinton is largely viewed as part of that establishment and it's a narrative Trump is probably going to use as much as he can.
What's astonishing is the Trump Muslim ban being almost like a side-note in this whole rhetoric. Whatever the issues people have with Hillary, the guy opposite is a literal fascist who wants to ban 25% of the world from entering the country, collectivising blame and deeming them all as potential criminals. That's not just a mere "policy decision". Its one thing advocating for morally dubious realpolitik, completely another to out and out advocate for warcrimes. Which is what Trump is doing. Anybody who considers voting for him, or says they understand those who vote for him are not just moronic, but cnuts of the highest order.
Very true. The policy is impossible to enforce though, so I suspect Trump is partly doing it to get votes. Or, maybe he really does believe he'd be able to implement it. It'd be utterly unenforceable though, and the checks and balances of the US system would surely hold him back.
If Trump gets elected, there probably won't be any checks and balances left.
that is just nonsense. If Trump gets elected, he´ll face serious opposition from both parties in the congress, the media and probably big parts of the executive. He´ll always be in danger of running against a brick-wall; sitting in the oval office without any allies doesn´t work particularly well.
That was meant tongue firmly in cheeks, but if he really gets elected then there's a high chance the GOP will have a supermajority in the Senate as well, alongside the current historic majority in the House. Anything goes from there.
According to the Guardian, he'll outlaw other parties and burn the Reichstag.
But will he pay taxes on his book profits when he releases one? The big question here.
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