This guy has no fecking clue. They all just live in a political bubble, and don't realize how pissed off people are at the establishment.
He says "before New York on April 19, he’d yet to win a majority in any state, lending credence to the idea that he might have a “ceiling”" -
This is bizarre for a statistician to say - surely he knows Trump was competing against as many as 13 candidates... Before NY he was competing against Cruz, Rubio and Kasich, so it's at a minimum a 4 horse race. Hillary has been competing in a two-horse race.
Hillary is a fundamentally weak candidate, and she has never had to run against a guy like Trump. He's going to come out and hit her from so many angles. It will be a vicious campaign.
Anyway, I think trump has a 50-50 chance in the general. States like NY, MI, FL and PA will be in play. Grab some popcorn.