2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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I think Trump will win the Acela and Indiana primaries enroute to the magic number of 1237 delegates. This stunt from Kasich and Cruz is sheer desperation, and I think Trump will use it to his advantage.
 
Red Dreams said:
Attacking the Republican party like this. How is he going to Clevelend and unite the party?
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He won't. Only 50% of GOP voters will be somewhat satisfied with him as their nominee. This number hasn't changed in months. A lot of major establishment figures have openly criticized him to the point where it would be hard to do a U-turn and support him. A major portion of the delegates who would be doing the voting would probably personally prefer Cruz but would have to vote for Trump due to being "bound". His unfavorable ratings amongst minorities and women is at an all time low and is plunging.

He has a loyal base but a uniter he ain't. He's just lucky that the field this primary season has been so divided that his 30-40% of the vote has been enough to win so many states. As someone mentioned, the GOP primary rules have helped him more than hurt him.
 
Red Dreams said:
anti-war

rebuilding infra-structure. Democratic talk.
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He's basically a liberal Republican - socially liberal, fiscally moderate. The anti-interventionist bit about Iraq and the Middle East is unique to Trump's own logic, as are his views on Chinese Trade.
 
Raoul said:
He's basically a liberal Republican - socially liberal, fiscally moderate. The anti-interventionist bit about Iraq and the Middle East is unique to Trump's own logic, as are his views on Chinese Trade.
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agree. but it will be interesting to hear his 'true' tax policies and about health care.

He is not having to talk too much about them because he is winning the nomination.

I think he will go for Tarrifs too on certain areas.

EDIT: Anti-Nato now. Just like Bernie...well a bit.
 
Red Dreams said:
agree. but it will be interesting to hear his 'true' tax policies and about health care.

He is not having to talk too much about them because he is winning the nomination.

I think he will go for Tarrifs too on certain areas.

EDIT: Anti-Nato now. Just like Bernie...well a bit.
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He hasn't thought any of that through. He claims he would raise taxes on the wealthy but hasn't really said how.
 
Raoul said:
He hasn't thought any of that through. He claims he would raise taxes on the wealthy but hasn't really said how.
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the key for him, is the people he chooses to manage his campaign, the advisors. He may choose from both sides. But as you say he will have a lot of his thoughts in his policies. He does not articulate them well, but he will get these advisers to formulate them, especially tax and health care.

Hillary should still be heavy favourite to win it, but he does have a way to win the GE.
 
Ole's_toe_poke said:
He won't. Only 50% of GOP voters will be somewhat satisfied with him as their nominee. This number hasn't changed in months. A lot of major establishment figures have openly criticized him to the point where it would be hard to do a U-turn and support him. A major portion of the delegates who would be doing the voting would probably personally prefer Cruz but would have to vote for Trump due to being "bound". His unfavorable ratings amongst minorities and women is at an all time low and is plunging.

He has a loyal base but a uniter he ain't. He's just lucky that the field this primary season has been so divided that his 30-40% of the vote has been enough to win so many states. As someone mentioned, the GOP primary rules have helped him more than hurt him.
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The establishment have no choice but to support him unless they want to cut off the base that supports him.

correct about hispanics and women. This is why Hillary still has to be favorites. But it is not impossible for him to win as some suggest.

For me this is an interesting scenario. We are seeing huge changes in how politics is being played out in this country. The traditional power structures are being shaken and this is very good for everyone.
 
So, NYT and banking experts have said Bernie's answers to the NY Daily News were alright but she keeps going back to that interview (this time in response to a questions about her Koch brother semi-endorsement)...

I saw the transcript and it's crazy because he is talking about the secretary of the treasury and they are talking about the fed, right past each other.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
I pity all Americans if he becomes the President.... But then having voted for him they probably deserve that!
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I actually don't know what kind of President he would be since he is basically putting on a theatrical character act during this campaign. Most of his interviews before he was running for Pres were actually quite normal, which is how I think he would be if elected.
 
Sanders' lead vs the GOPers holds but his own numbers are going down from what I remember- he was in the mid/high 50s vs Trump sometimes. Kasich remains the scarier candidate.

Monday, April 25
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton GWU/Battleground Clinton 46, Trump 43 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 50, Trump 39 Clinton +11
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 49, Cruz 42 Clinton +7
General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Kasich 46, Clinton 41 Kasich +5
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders GWU/Battleground Sanders 50, Trump 40 Sanders +10
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 52, Trump 37 Sanders +15
General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 50, Cruz 38 Sanders +12
General Election: Kasich vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 44, Kasich 43 Sanders +1
 
Red Dreams said:
The establishment have no choice but to support him unless they want to cut off the base that supports him.

correct about hispanics and women. This is why Hillary still has to be favorites. But it is not impossible for him to win as some suggest.

For me this is an interesting scenario. We are seeing huge changes in how politics is being played out in this country. The traditional power structures are being shaken and this is very good for everyone.
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The establishment has already indicated that theythat they are not pleased with Trump. He's always been on shaky grounds and it's working for him as most took him for granted.

He'll just make it easier for Hillary.

But then this shake up is well deserved and hopefully will get on to better and more connected politicians.
 
I'm watching the CA senate debate and Loretta Sanchez is fecking weird. Kamala Harris should walk this and I expect her to be a national figure in a few years time.
 
Edgar Allan Pillow said:
The establishment has already indicated that theythat they are not pleased with Trump. He's always been on shaky grounds and it's working for him as most took him for granted.

He'll just make it easier for Hillary.

But then this shake up is well deserved and hopefully will get on to better and more connected politicians.
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agree pretty much
 
berbatrick said:
Sanders' lead vs the GOPers holds but his own numbers are going down from what I remember- he was in the mid/high 50s vs Trump sometimes. Kasich remains the scarier candidate.

Monday, April 25
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton GWU/Battleground Clinton 46, Trump 43 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 50, Trump 39 Clinton +11
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 49, Cruz 42 Clinton +7
General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Kasich 46, Clinton 41 Kasich +5
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders GWU/Battleground Sanders 50, Trump 40 Sanders +10
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 52, Trump 37 Sanders +15
General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 50, Cruz 38 Sanders +12
General Election: Kasich vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 44, Kasich 43 Sanders **
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these polls are pretty useless at this point. when the nominations are decided, the polls in the Swing states as the campaign progresses, will be a good indication.
 
Regarding Kasich - his current numbers against Hillary and Bernie are propped up by the fact that he has low negatives at the moment because Trump hasn't hammered them down like he has with Cruz, Rubio, and Bush. Once Trump softens him up in the coming 6 weeks, his numbers will probably dip a bit and that's not even counting the natural scrutiny he would face during the Gen if he faced Hillary or Bernie. The big problem with Kasich would obviously be Ohio, which would be a massive get for the GOP. If that happened, Hillary would have to get VA and FL.
 
Raoul said:
Regarding Kasich - his current numbers against Hillary and Bernie are propped up by the fact that he has low negatives at the moment because Trump hasn't hammered them down like he has with Cruz, Rubio, and Bush. Once Trump softens him up in the coming 6 weeks, his numbers will probably dip a bit and that's not even counting the natural scrutiny he would face during the Gen if he faced Hillary or Bernie. The big problem with Kasich would obviously be Ohio, which would be a massive get for the GOP. If that happened, Hillary would have to get VA and FL.
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Hillary will beat Kasich easy. He is your normal Republican with all the trickle down mumbo jumbo and get rid of Obama care...and err replace with Trust the Insurance industry.
 
Raoul said:
Regarding Kasich - his current numbers against Hillary and Bernie are propped up by the fact that he has low negatives at the moment because Trump hasn't hammered them down like he has with Cruz, Rubio, and Bush. Once Trump softens him up in the coming 6 weeks, his numbers will probably dip a bit and that's not even counting the natural scrutiny he would face during the Gen if he faced Hillary or Bernie. The big problem with Kasich would obviously be Ohio, which would be a massive get for the GOP. If that happened, Hillary would have to get VA and FL.
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He genuinely has fewer weaknesses than the other 2. He's a hardliner on abortion and a centrist on healthcare. He has a defensible record as governor (and great popularity in the swing state) and no history of scandals. His biggest issue will be to unite Repubs but if he can then he'll win it at a canter. IMO.
 
Red Dreams said:
Hillary will beat Kasich easy. He is your normal Republican with all the trickle down mumbo jumbo and get rid of Obama care...and err replace with Trust the Insurance industry.
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He allowed the medicare expansion or whatever it's called in Ohio, unlike all the hardline Repubs. He'll be tough for any Dem to attack.
 
berbatrick said:
He genuinely has fewer weaknesses than the other 2. He's a hardliner on abortion and a centrist on healthcare. He has a defensible record as governor (and great popularity in the swing state) and no history of scandals. His biggest issue will be to unite Repubs but if he can then he'll win it at a canter. IMO.
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The Dems can cede any 3 out of FL, OH, NC and VA and still win.

Kasich is not an inspiring figure. As hated as Hillary is, she's the base candidate. He's not even that.
 
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