If Carson and Kasich drop out after Super Tuesday or the 15th, it will help Trump imo - as at that point Trump's momentum, following massive wins on Super Tuesday and the 15th will have snowballed so much that most of the Kasich and Carson supporters will wind up with him.
2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins
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If Carson and Kasich drop out after Super Tuesday or the 15th, it will help Trump imo - as at that point Trump's momentum, following massive wins on Super Tuesday and the 15th will have snowballed so much that most of the Kasich and Carson supporters will wind up with him.
How do you see the House looking?
Its pretty much overwhelmingly GOP and will likely stay as such. If a Republican gets elected President, the Dems will have a chance of putting a dent in their majority during the 2018 mid term elections.
When is the next redistricting? Dems need to get more involved in extensive gerrymandering!
This is a must-read, on the absolute slaughter going on within the GOP right now - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/u...f=politics&_r=0&smid=tw-nytpolitics&smtyp=cur
National Clinton-Sanders polling has closed to within 5 points generally. But the sequence of states means that he won't get many delegates till mid-March, and by then it might be too late. The momentum propelling him forward nationally will recede.
So, Hillary vs Trump. She has never gone up in any polls (NY senate, 2008 primary, 2016 primary). She has started from a a position of overwhelming strength, lost one won one, and probably will win another, but in much closer contests than the initial data suggested.
He's by far the better campaigner, she has precedent and logic on her side. Hopefully he has a ceiling. But you can be rest assured he will win blue collar whites males with overwhelming margins, she does really badly there. It is whether enough women (voting as women not as blue collar whites) and minorities and college graduates can turn up for the general election.
So, Hillary vs Trump. She has never gone up in any polls (NY senate, 2008 primary, 2016 primary). She has started from a a position of overwhelming strength, lost one won one, and probably will win another, but in much closer contests than the initial data suggested.
He's by far the better campaigner, she has precedent and logic on her side. Hopefully he has a ceiling. But you can be rest assured he will win blue collar whites males with overwhelming margins, she does really badly there. It is whether enough women (voting as women not as blue collar whites) and minorities and college graduates can turn up for the general election.
IIRC Obama got his butt kicked when it came to white males in '12
35% to 62%. Even lost white women by 42% to 56%.
You have to presume the GOP vote will be split in November if its Trump, especially after a civil war at the Convention. I can't see Cruz and Rubio supporters getting behind Trump with any degree of numbers or enthusiasm, which will undercut his turnout. Hillary's turnout will also not be anywhere near Obama's, but she will benefit from all of Trump's previous comments about Mexicans etc. Also, Trump's polemics won't go over well with a national audience, as they have with disaffected, lower class white Republicans.
:thumbsup:
I knew it was a significant margin...
Think the democratic party has just about given up on your typical white guy...might explain why they're so angry
Yes. But Trump is going to do even better than Mitt with working-class white males. That 270towin demographic tool, if you swing white males a bit, and reduce black turnout/Dem proportion a bit, it becomes very dicey very quickly. Florida is out of the question for her IMO, and apparently Pennsylvania could be in play for him.
The 1st bit of Sanders polling data that had me excited was around July(?) last year that showed he was winning significant support in West Virginia. Overwhelmingly white, poor, coal mine workers who have switched from the party of the unions to the party of coal. A recent poll showed him to be still very strong there. No other Dem could be competitive in that state.
:thumbsup:
I knew it was a significant margin...
Think the democratic party has just about given up on your typical white guy...might explain why they're so angry
The 1st bit of Sanders polling data that had me excited was around July(?) last year that showed he was winning significant support in West Virginia. Overwhelmingly white, poor, coal mine workers who have switched from the party of the unions to the party of coal. A recent poll showed him to be still very strong there. No other Dem could be competitive in that state.
The bit about Kasich is hilarious. The GOP establishment are clearly bricking it and don't know what to do.
Yup, which is why the SCOTUS appointments are so important. America could be taken back to the dark ages with the wrong choices. It fecking irks me greatly that things like this are still so important to many of the American electorate and that candidates use it to run on. Religion has no fecking place in politics at all, and it also irks me greatly that it's always men who argue and shout the loudest about abortion. It should be nothing to do with them whatsoever. I hope their daughters never get raped and then forced to bring a child in to the world.
Edit** So important was the wrong wording, it's obviously important, what I meant was that it was still even being argued against in this day and age. A politician in the UK or Europe would never be able to run on issues like that, certainly not with such biased and antiquated thoughts/ideals about them. The complete dichotomy of the USA and its political system. So progressive in many ways, for example, legalising cannabis in some states, and yet so feckin backward in others like the opinion of abortion, all the talk about the foetus and never ever any consideration for the victim, and the attitude about gay marriage by many, especially the religious right.
I hadn't seen this post.
The point is what she seems to be talking about (a constitutional amendment) would overrule the Supreme Court on abortions, and could possibly roll back Roe vs Wade(since she is talking about a compromise with the GOP, it would roll back Roe vs Wade worse than Planned Parenthood vs Casey already has).
I really really don't doubt she is personally a feminist but if she's willing to compromise on that, literally there's nothing sacred for her.
EDIT: Generally,this is also why I don't like the idea that she could reach cross the aisle and work better with the Republicans. Yes, she can, but her compromises will be on climate change (she was a pro-fracking Secretary of State and gets heavy fossil fuel money, she just announced a pro-natural gas stance), unions (Walmart just donated 350k to her), and, seemingly, even liberal social issues which Obama has stood firm on. And of course "moderate" Republicans and Hillary are on the same side of the spectrum on foreign policy.
Wish I could see Rove's face.
They needed to be doing this months and months ago when it was clear Trump had firmer support than initially suspected. Doing it after he's already won three states, and when everyone is running around for the nearest fire exit, isn't good strategy.
Paul LePage is weird as well, going from suggesting publishing a letter disavowing Trump to nominating him within the week
Also confirms my suspicion that Bush and Kasich aren't keen on Rubio either.
I don't think they should count on a brokered convention either... Trump could well have enough delegates pledged in the first votes to get the nomination
Hillary will be the president imo. But it will be close if Trump is the nominee.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/marco-rubio-tax-returns_us_56d0a8f7e4b03260bf76bbc0
yup. we can trust Rubio.
yup. we can trust Rubio.
Wish I could see Rove's face.
They needed to be doing this months and months ago when it was clear Trump had firmer support than initially suspected. Doing it after he's already won three states, and when everyone is running around for the nearest fire exit, isn't good strategy.
Paul LePage is weird as well, going from suggesting publishing a letter disavowing Trump to nominating him within the week
Also confirms my suspicion that Bush and Kasich aren't keen on Rubio either.
Bush probably isn't keen on anyone who isn't him, considering how strong a favourite he was a while back. He's probably sitting in a room right now, mumbling, "it's not fair" repeatedly under his breath.
The bit about Rubio condescendingly calling Christie to tell him he had a bright future in politics was hilarious too. I can see how Cruz and Rubio are not particularly liked among many of their peers.
Truuump, Trump will tear us apaaart, agaaaain
Wow. Do you have a similar split by education?
And they support Trump so he must be really, really cool. I hope all the kids of voting age are watching
Not tabulated against gender or race unfortunately, but the general breakdown is:
No high school - Obama 64 to 35 (3% of total)
High school graduate - Obama 51 to 48 (21%)
Some college - Obama 49 to 48 (29%)
College graduate - Romney 51 to 47 (29%)
Postgrad - Obama 55 to 42 (18%)
Whole exit poll is here - http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll - and you can look down at the data in most swing states too, lot of interesting nuggets.
That postgrad stat, reversing the trend of the more educated favouring Romney, is interesting. It supports the perception that the academic world is a liberal bastion.
It will be poetic if the thing that lead to the GOP's rise in 2010 and 2014 i.e. the tea party movement, the angry rhetoric and the obstructionist policy in Washington is what ultimately leads to their downfall this year. Trump is definitely using those same voters and channeling the same anger to win this nomination and if he does win, the GOP lose.
Salon bemoans the rise and rise of Donald Duck Trump ~
Donald Trump’s political triumph makes it official — we’re a nation of idiots:
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/24/ame...ph_makes_it_official_were_a_nation_of_idiots/
Donald Trump’s political triumph makes it official — we’re a nation of idiots:
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/24/ame...ph_makes_it_official_were_a_nation_of_idiots/
The problem is that data is not normalised for race and income so those will be confounding factors before making any conclusions. It's very possible that among whites or among high earners, the trends show more educated support sticking with Obama. But since college grads are more expected to be white/rich, we can't say anything for sure.
Cruz was supposed to be the champion of the T Party surely.
Trump is not saying anything that ties in to T Party policies.
But he is running on Nationalism.
Trump is not saying anything that ties in to T Party policies.
But he is running on Nationalism.
Preliminary exit poll results out for SC, looking good for Clinton. Couple of telling ones:
Black percentage of the vote higher than expected.
Heavily favouring continuity rather than political revolution.
He's the perfect mix of the contradictions that make up the GOP.
He speaks about the Bible and in it there is (among awful stuff) forgiveness, anti-wealth diatribes, and charity. He is also a libertarian, and for them being heartless is not just necessary, it is a virtue. Which is why he genuinely thought he had cornered Trump when he got him to "admit" that he didn't want people dying on the street. But with this extreme "freedom" he also wants to ban abortions on religious grounds.
Nothing makes sense.
Any upsides tonight for Sanders?
Don't see any.
Don't see any.
Nope. Low turnout should have been a plus for him in Hillary state, but it turns out that the turnout was lowest among whites. He needs to stop the bleeding at a 25 point difference, but it doesn't look likely.
CNN called it as soon as the polls closed.
I'm seeing +32 quoted :O
0.1% reported, 60+ margin. It'll narrow but this is brutal.
I have a nagging feeling recently that Hillary will have a similar minorities turn out to Obama. The public shootings, BLM movement and Flint water crisis surely will motivate a lot of AA. Latinos will turn out against Trump.
I have a nagging feeling recently that Hillary will have a similar minorities turn out to Obama. The public shootings, BLM movement and Flint water crisis surely will motivate a lot of AA. Latinos will turn out against Trump.
According to the exit poll, her margin of victory amongst black voters is higher than Obama's in the 08 primary. Which doesn't do much for the "they'll like Bernie more when they know him" argument.
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