2016 US Presidential Elections | Trump Wins

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Raoul said:
Nationwide polls are a bit meaningless since Clinton and Sanders aren't competing in a national election. Hillary is still beating him in a vast majority of primary states which is what counts.
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So he's still pretty much a massive outsider then? Barring some incredible change.
 


Looks like he'll be pulling out after the result comes through.
 
Red Dreams said:
I thought Bernie was spot on with his foreign policy points. It is the countries that you don't speak to...isolated...that are the danger. N Korea is a danger. I see nothing wrong with wanting to speak to Iran...pre-conditions or not. You want to speak to your enemies so we can avoid more bloodshed.
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The old, self-indulgent liberal query (at least when out of office): Why can't we all get along? Answer: Because people have different ideas about their preferred reality, which are sometimes incompatible. And no friendly smiles or reasoned discourse can change that.

Generally, when nations have sufficient reasons to come to terms, they will do so. It's not lack of dialogue or 'misunderstandings' of each others natures, which prevent peaceful coexistence. The sources of mutual hostility are found in what Marxists call 'objective factors'. When those objective factors change, or the weight assigned to them by the antagonists alters, then previously insuperable obstacles of mutual 'misunderstanding' can dissolve surprisingly quickly.

Mao Zedong spent half his life denouncing America. No channels of communication of any kind existed between his government and the US. Yet, when relations between China and the Soviet Union deteriorated, and he needed a powerful ally, that history of enmity counted for nothing, no more than rhetoric or ideology, and the word went out, and found its way to the ears of Henry Kissinger, who was soon on a plane, and shortly after that Richard Nixon, the old communist baiter, was walking the Great Wall, and a pure, new friendship was born.
 
Oh, I get it now. Can't edit my posts for some reason, so doublepost:

Well, I'd say the following:

1. We should ignore national polls. Period. One in nine Americans live in California, for example. This is rather irrelevant to the question of who can best appeal to the battleground states that actually do decide things. In order of importance in 2012 - Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, NH, and Florida. Do note the importance of the African-American vote in those states, and the corresponding importance of keeping that constituency enthusiastic: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-2016-election/. Also take note of Hillary's popularity therein: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry...s-hillary-clinton-black-issues_b_9159902.html.

(If the answer here is "they will warm up to Bernie when they get to know him", then firstly, there's no evidence of that, and secondly, you can't have it both ways - either national polling matters or it doesn't.)

2. The reason these states decide things, obviously, is because they're centrist, persuadable states.

3. In any event, it seems relatively meaningless to look at Sanders' national favourability when he's been allowed to define himself in the public consciousness unmolested up till now as a sincere, puritan crusader for the common man. When they start digging out the Reverend Wrights in his closet, we can then have a better sense of his ability to sink or swim.
 
Will Absolute said:
The old, self-indulgent liberal query (at least when out of office): Why can't we all get along? Answer: Because people have different ideas about their preferred reality, which are sometimes incompatible. And no friendly smiles or reasoned discourse can change that.

Generally, when nations have sufficient reasons to come to terms, they will do so. It's not lack of dialogue or 'misunderstandings' of each others natures, which prevent peaceful coexistence. The sources of mutual hostility are found in what Marxists call 'objective factors'. When those objective factors change, or the weight assigned to them by the antagonists alters, then previously insuperable obstacles of mutual 'misunderstanding' can dissolve surprisingly quickly.

Mao Zedong spent half his life denouncing America. No channels of communication of any kind existed between his government and the US. Yet, when relations between China and the Soviet Union deteriorated, and he needed a powerful ally, that history of enmity counted for nothing, no more than rhetoric or ideology, and the word went out, and found its way to the ears of Henry Kissinger, who was soon on a plane, and shortly after that Richard Nixon, the old communist baiter, was walking the Great Wall, and a pure, new friendship was born.
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bollox.

you don't lose anything by talking to your enemies...without pre-conditions. Yes. The US can turn most countries into parking lots. Iran know this. They will want to be reasonable. As for your hero worship of mass murderers Kissinger and Nixon..I'll leave you to your fantasies.
 
The final debate before the NH Primary in 3 days, is this the moment Trump implodes in public? Surely he is going to get some monumental stick for missing the previous debate, and surely he is going to go after Cruz about the voters gradings, the Carson leak to CNN and also him being Canadian.
 
langster said:
The final debate before the NH Primary in 3 days, is this the moment Trump implodes in public? Surely he is going to get some monumental stick for missing the previous debate, and surely he is going to go after Cruz about the voters gradings, the Carson leak to CNN and also him being Canadian.
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I expect Trump to hammer Cruz for vote stealing and I expect everyone to attack the 'boy in the plastic bubble.'
 
langster said:
Wow! Bernie is surging ahead, but Cruz seems to be taking a battering according to those polls. 12% That's shocking. His dirty tactics could really be turning people off him, Trump will have a field day with that.
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actually Bernie's lead is getting closer as expected. He is a well known person being from a neighbouring state and NH is a well to do conservative state. What Bernie has is youth support. Also significant is lot more men support him. But Hillary is not getting All the women support. Young women are listening to the message. Good for them.

This is not a Cruz (Evanglical) state. This debate will be good to see how Rubio handles himself.
 
langster said:
Wow! Bernie is surging ahead, but Cruz seems to be taking a battering according to those polls. 12% That's shocking. His dirty tactics could really be turning people off him, Trump will have a field day with that.
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Cruz hasn't polled well in NH for a long time now, and Hillary is actually gaining a bit (arresting her slide more like). The interesting bit from that poll is Rubio's surge. If he finishes a strong 2nd there, and it's most likely, then the establishment will coalesce around him for real.
 
Yeah, I get the voting analysis and demographics of both sides in NH, I just thought Cruz was polling a lot higher than 12%, I must have misread some figures. I still think Trump blundered not appearing in Iowa, he gave Rubio the platform and he took it with both hands.
 
Cruz could finish 4th which would smack him back down to reality and blunt any momentum before South Carolina. If Trump wins a few states in a row then his momentum will be hard to stop.
 
Christie was not sounding particularly homely towards Rubio earlier today, I get the feeling that one of him, Bush or Kasich will remain after NH and the other two will endorse whoever that is.
 
Raoul said:
If Trump wins a few states in a row then his momentum will be hard to stop
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Once Christie and Bush drop out the moderates (despite the fact that Rubio is hardly a moderate) will coalesce around Rubio while Trump and Cruz split the tea part vote.

I see this ending only one way, i.e. Rubio getting the nomination.
 
Hilarious and shambolic start, poor Carson, completely ignored and didn't know what to do. They didn't announce his name when he walked on stage and announced Cruz instead, and then announced the rest and they all walked past him to their podiums. :lol:

Then Trumps first beauty..... "we need a temporary something because something is definitely going on" (referring to Muslims and Islamic terrorism)
 
Thought Christie did very well and made Rubio what he always said he was ....Rubio looked like crying there.

Trump bullied Bush as usual...and spoke some common sense about Health Insurance companies. Also liked his direct attack on the RNC about donors getting tickets. classic stuff.

I really would not be afraid for him if he became president.
 
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Red Dreams said:
true. but he would need a good portion of their votes though.

These Republicans really are clowns. Some of the garbage they spout.
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Sorry if I was unclear. I'm not watching the debate, and I was wondering which 68% grouping Jeb! was calling foolhardy?
 
Trump "I'd bring waterboarding back and worse than that" Cruz and Rubio were happy to advocate torture as well.

8th amendment, No cruel or unusual punishments................................

Also Cruz saying he would change all Obama's laws he brought in by unconstitutionally using executive orders, by erm,,,, using executive orders. :wenger:
 
btw if there was any doubt Jeb would not be another gung ho numpty like his brother he dispelled it....

Bush said history has shown the need to have a "stable government" in place when beginning a military campaign like the one in Libya.

Left unmentioned, however, was his brother's military intervention in Iraq, one of the costliest in U.S. history.
 
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