‘Successful’ scenarios for Summer ‘23

Then FDJ or Oshimen get a knock and we're back to glass legs Martial and headless chicken McTominay

1 or 2 quality players would help us no doubt but we also need adequate backup.

Tielemans/Rabiot and Thuram maybe
 
The smart thing to do is go for quality players that don’t already play for big clubs. There is no point in negotiating months without guarantees.

So please no FDJ, Kane or Osimhen. They are not attainable without tons of drama and twists

We need to still go for two of those three players,however also keep an eye on those not playing for the top clubs as well
 
Oh, just a btw sort of thing: I've been seing a lot of posters that seem certain we are getting rid of VDB. I'm unsure how realistic that actually is.

Given his history with Erik I think getting injured was "the best thing" (theoretical, of course) that could have happened to him as far as staying goes.

I have an inkling Erik could be inclined to give it another go once he's recovered.

I have more faith in Phil Jones becoming our starter CB than in VDB playing regular football for us.
We just have to let him go, he is injury prone and most importantly not very good.
 
I think the next few weeks of PL action will dictate our transfer strategy. I am looking at value options so we can improve the squad in as many areas without spunking £60m - £100m on each area and leaving us to be able to buy on big ticket item.
  • Firstly, do Spurs get top four? If not, Kane is a bigger possibility and I think will be on the move. It would be prudent to not lay all of our eggs in his basket as he might decide (through blind loyalty) to stay. If not, then go all out for Osimhen, the types of goals he is scoring, especially in the air, are a match made in heaven for PL football. Looks a handful and I'd like an exciting signing like this.
  • Secondly, who is getting relegated? As unlikely as it seems, teams like West Ham, So'Ton, Leicester, and Everton are all in the mix. If one or more of these teams goes down, then we need to consider one or two of these players. It won't happen but if WHU gets dragged into the muck then I say a cut-price deal for Rice is worth it. At the prices muted when they were mid-table - forget it! But if they were to go down, £50m for a very decent, solid, no.8, homegrown would be worth it for sure. Now is he a unique, generational talent? I don't think so but he is a big upgrade on McTominay.
  • Southampton has some intriguing players, Lavia and JWP for me both look like decent squad options. I really want to reiterate these are squad options to replace our sub-par squad options.
  • We need CB with Maguire going and Jones moving on. Leaves us with Licha, Rafa, and Vic. A fourth CB, younger, who can cover 55+ games would be worthwhile. Marc Guehi? Tomori?
 
2 strikers, 2 cms and a keeper. Maguire, Martial and mctom to leave. Possibly a cb too.
 
I was watching Leverkusen - Bayern the other day and was really impressed by Leverkusen's Exequiel Palacios. I remember he almost signed for Real Madrid from River Plate a few years back but then he got injured, and I've followed him very little since, pretty much only on FBref and other stats sites. He caused some real problems for Bayern and is a very combative midfielder and reminds me a bit of Bruno Guimaraes, actually. Maybe someone to go after as back-up (or partner) to Casemiro. Maybe @Zehner can shed some more light on him and his strengths/weaknesses and if he'd be a good fit for us.
 
Two strikers and two midfielders, then addressing gaps if sell someone like Maguire.

Finally ridding squad of likes of Bailly, Telles, Jones etc as well as being more ruthless and moving on likes of Mctominay, DVB and Maguire would be huge step in right direction as well.
 
For those listing Martial, who on earth is going to buy him? With his wages and effectively missing a whole season with injuries there's no way anyone is paying a fee, maybe there's a very remote chance Spurs would take him as part of a deal for Kane but that's about it.

Almost certain he's here as back-up or loaned out until his contract is up.
 
I was watching Leverkusen - Bayern the other day and was really impressed by Leverkusen's Exequiel Palacios. I remember he almost signed for Real Madrid from River Plate a few years back but then he got injured, and I've followed him very little since, pretty much only on FBref and other stats sites. He caused some real problems for Bayern and is a very combative midfielder and reminds me a bit of Bruno Guimaraes, actually. Maybe someone to go after as back-up (or partner) to Casemiro. Maybe @Zehner can shed some more light on him and his strengths/weaknesses and if he'd be a good fit for us.

I always liked Palacios and he's finally living up to his potential. He had great games before this season as well but injuries and the wrong coaches kept him out of the starting line up far too frequently. But I think he'd be better off confirming this level and staying injury free for one or two seasons before moving clubs. Some of his performances this season were definitely good enough for a top club but it is not easy to replicate that after joining a new team. I'd say his next objective should be to show these kind of performances week in week out and then he's ready for a bigger club than us.

Regarding his play style: He's good against the ball and at pressing the opponents. I imagine he's very annoying to play against because he closes down the space very well, stays on his feed while defending and is hard to "escape", etc. He's also very comfortable in possession with good vision, first touch, close control and passing. Rarely loses a ball, especially not in dangerous situations, and distributes it decently with a through ball here and there. But he's not outstanding in any of those disciplines - or at least he hasn't shown it so far. I'd say a great player to complement other sand help them shine.
 
I always liked Palacios and he's finally living up to his potential. He had great games before this season as well but injuries and the wrong coaches kept him out of the starting line up far too frequently. But I think he'd be better off confirming this level and staying injury free for one or two seasons before moving clubs. Some of his performances this season were definitely good enough for a top club but it is not easy to replicate that after joining a new team. I'd say his next objective should be to show these kind of performances week in week out and then he's ready for a bigger club than us.

Regarding his play style: He's good against the ball and at pressing the opponents. I imagine he's very annoying to play against because he closes down the space very well, stays on his feed while defending and is hard to "escape", etc. He's also very comfortable in possession with good vision, first touch, close control and passing. Rarely loses a ball, especially not in dangerous situations, and distributes it decently with a through ball here and there. But he's not outstanding in any of those disciplines - or at least he hasn't shown it so far. I'd say a great player to complement other sand help them shine.

Thanks! I'll be watching out more for him from now. Plenty of interesting players Leverkusen has these days that are worth keeping an eye on. Wirtz, Frimpong, Palacios, Diaby and Hlozek as well.
 
Thanks! I'll be watching out more for him from now. Plenty of interesting players Leverkusen has these days that are worth keeping an eye on. Wirtz, Frimpong, Palacios, Diaby and Hlozek as well.

You're welcome! :)

On a sidenote, I think you forgot Hincapie. I'd even say he's the best talent after Wirtz and Frimpong. Tapsoba is also pretty good, even though he had a bit of a dip in his development curve after being exceptional after his arrival. Bakker also has everything it takes to become an elite LB/LWB if he gets his act together.
 
Tielemans/Rabiot and Thuram maybe
These three plus Ndicka are pretty much the only free agents we should be looking at this summer. Getting cheap cover that is better than our existing squad players allows us to use our budget on the key positions that need strengthening in the first team, striker, right back and goalkeeper. If we can get FDJ, or somebody else who is still an upgrade on Eriksen I wouldn't say no, and then we wouldn't need Tielemans to cover #8.
 
Oh, just a btw sort of thing: I've been seing a lot of posters that seem certain we are getting rid of VDB. I'm unsure how realistic that actually is.

Given his history with Erik I think getting injured was "the best thing" (theoretical, of course) that could have happened to him as far as staying goes.

I have an inkling Erik could be inclined to give it another go once he's recovered.

I think Donny would have proven his worth had he not got injured.

But with that said — isn’t it obvious that DVB was a bit of a grave yard shift player for ETH? I don’t think ETH views him as a core player in any way, shape or form. ETH has been very protective of the players he obviously like. Martial. Antony. And so forth. But DVB? He has always been level headed and stated how DVB wasn’t bad — when people criticized him. But that is in the same terms as his support of Elanga.
 
Try to raise around 80m from Maguire, Henderson and Scott, best to get rid of Elanga and potentially DDG too.

If the Qataris come in and clear the debt, we could easily spend 200m including recouped sales.
 
Release/Loan
Henderson, Jones, Bailly, Telles, Weghorst, Greenwood

Replace
DDG <> New #1
Maguire <> CB to develop
VDB & McT <> Established CM + Sabitzer
Martial <> Top tier striker

I’d happily continue along the strategy of trialling players with loans before we commit although I’m sure that’d be less feasible in a summer window.

Our trouble as always will be the Utd tax and the interference of our rivals. How good would it be to have signings announced in the front end of the window rather than the usual saga!?
 
GK Costa (65m) Cheaper alternative Raya (15m)
RB Frimpong (30m)
DM Lavia (25m)
CM x2 Mac Allister (70m), Kudos (40m) Cheaper alternatives Enzo La Fee (20m), Ceballos (free)
ST Gonçalo Ramos (105m) Cheaper alternative Evan Ferguson (35m), Thuram (free)

Sell, Loan or Release
DDG
AWB
Maguire
Telles
Bailly
Jones
Fred
McTominay
Martial


Costa (Henderson)
Frimpong Varane Martinez Shaw (Dalot, Lindelof, Tuanzebe, Malacia)
Casemiro Mac Allister (Lavia, Eriksen)
Antony Bruno Rashford (Kudos, Sancho, Garnacho)
Ramos (MG11)
 
In the best scenario, I’d be looking for a gk as a long term succesor to DeGea (Costa), Frimpong, another very good defensive midfielder, and Osimhen. Controversially I’d also sign Weghorst permanently as hes a different option up front and can play deeper too.

we already have our own solutions to many of our problems imo - sancho can play 10 as well as wide and we are stacked out side with Rashford, Antony, Elanga, Garnacho, Pellestri and Amad.

We need to really nail a best starting 11 - still questions over RB, CM, and Striker when we have everyone fit. A key player in each position would massively push us on again next season.

theres some fringe players we can really let go - Mctominay is probably disposable if we sign another midfielder, could probably drop a young winger or 2 as well as the likes of Henderson, Williams, Tuanzabe, DVB, Bailly, Telles. Might get a few token fees there.
 
GK Costa (65m) Cheaper alternative Raya (15m)
RB Frimpong (30m)
DM Lavia (25m)
CM x2 Mac Allister (70m), Kudos (40m) Cheaper alternatives Enzo La Fee (20m), Ceballos (free)
ST Gonçalo Ramos (105m) Cheaper alternative Evan Ferguson (35m), Thuram (free)

Sell, Loan or Release
DDG
AWB
Maguire
Telles
Bailly
Jones
Fred
McTominay
Martial


Costa (Henderson)
Frimpong Varane Martinez Shaw (Dalot, Lindelof, Tuanzebe, Malacia)
Casemiro Mac Allister (Lavia, Eriksen)
Antony Bruno Rashford (Kudos, Sancho, Garnacho)
Ramos (MG11)

Are you going Ramos over Osimhen because of the rumoured £150m pricetag,would agree with the other options apart from Ceballos.
 
Hopefully.Qatar buys us. Then it would be:

GK - Costa (can’t see why some people rave about an average keeper such as Raya).
RB - Frimpong.
CB - Timber.
CM - Bellingham.
CM - Sabitzer
DM - Lavia.
Striker - Kane/Osimhen.
Striker - Ferguson.

Out: Maguire. Bailly. VDB. McTominay. Jones. Martial. Weghorst.

Again, hopefully Qatar buys us.
 
Hopefully.Qatar buys us. Then it would be:

GK - Costa (can’t see why some people rave about an average keeper such as Raya).
RB - Frimpong.
CB - Timber.
CM - Bellingham.
CM - Sabitzer
DM - Lavia.
Striker - Kane/Osimhen.
Striker - Ferguson.

Out: Maguire. Bailly. VDB. McTominay. Jones. Martial. Weghorst.

Again, hopefully Qatar buys us.

I remember my first beer
 
Success would be a 9, an 8 and a goalkeeper that’s ready.

Pie in the sky stuff. But we would challenge if we managed it.
 
Then FDJ or Oshimen get a knock and we're back to glass legs Martial and headless chicken McTominay

1 or 2 quality players would help us no doubt but we also need adequate backup.
Next year we'd have Amad, Mejbri and probably Greenwood back so we shouldn't worry about backups I think. Especially we still have Eriksen. He could be a very valuable backup for our new top CM imo. And for Bruno as well.

For me a top CM and a top #9 are more than enough. Really hope we could sort the takeover out before the window starts.
 
With the new FFP rules, it means that a Middle East super rich state must be more prudent if they buy a relatively cheap
Club like Newcastle for £300m and increase it’s turnover like city did over a 15 year period to £600m, all be it by inflating sponsorship deals, this can’t be done any more because of the controls with FFP which will soon become only 70% of turnover with allowed in wages. Transfer and agent Fees by 2025/26.

Newcastle wage bill is already nearly 100% of its turnover. EG the club is working on increasing capacity to 56,000; they manage to get CL football this year and increase their sponsorship deal.

Turnover maxed out at £300m, they spend £170m on 4 players on 5 year contracts amortised at 37.5m and the wages go up from £171m to £235m plus they pay £15m in agents fees. Next year when the percentage is due to reduce to 80% they would have spent £287.5/300m or 96% so would be banned from Europe and face a huge fine. The following year it becomes 70% which makes it almost impossible to do what city did, so if your a Saudi state who wants results quickly and Qatar are looking at buying a group of football clubs like the city Group where Qatar would quite clearly be called the ‘United Group’ , your either looking to gatecrash the United party and pull the plug on Newcastle or your looking to buy a German club like Bayern or Dortmund, Italian club Luke AC Milan or a Spanish club Barcelona , the problem those clubs will never ever sell, maybe Milan but not the others.

This is what the Glaziers are really banking on, the easiest super club actually available for a state to truly flex their muscles and dominate football is only Manchester United, it’s why the Glaziers spent so much time in Qatar during the World Cup. Now if you are Sheikh Jassim and you have access to all that money and unlike PSG where they can’t spend Sweet FA because they are basically overtrading and breaking every FFP rule in the book what would you do? PSG have not won the CL even with there rich array of superstars, they simply pass the batten on and try again.


I keep saying this but no one really is looking at or understands these new rules , if United are bought by Qatar, there will be some transfers between the clubs that would not have happened had they not been owned by the same state. When Maguire goes to PSG for £40m, the inevitable outrage will start!

United Turnover is probably £560m this year and 90% of that will mean the club can spend £504m on wages, amortised transfer and upfront agent fees. The Transfers position can be increased by selling assets like Dean Henderson, Brandon Williams, Antony Elanga and Scott Mctominay because they have no transfer fee, We never paid anything for them if we sold them for a combined £60m on 4 year contracts then the club would have an additional £15m towards their amortised transfer budget.

Assuming wages are down from £385 to £335m (Europa League Clause)
Then £504-335m would means we have 169m for agent fees and amortised transfer fees over two windows, one in summer one on winter. Let’s assume we went after the following players this summer ;

D Raya -£25m (5 year contract)
V Osimhen £120m (5 year contract)
K M Jae - £50m (5 year contract)
A Rabiot - Free (5 year Contract)
M Kudas - 45m ( 5 year contract )
Sabitzer-20m (5 year contract )

Six players agents fees normally 5-10% maximum which is now in FIFA legislation so agents fees max would be £25m plus the total transfer amortised over 5 years which is £52m per year this is only summer
The club would have spent £77m of it £169m so could easily spend another £200-250m in the winter window.

Chelsea under Todd Boehly broke no FFP laws they just signed everybody on 7 year contracts which allowed them to spend nearly £600m over two windows.

My point is we could do all those transfers, send Maguire to PSG for £50m, Lindelof to Milan for £30m, buy J Timber and Dumfries for £70m and still buy Neymar or Mbappe for £100-200m, providing we have CL football for 2023/24 season as our Turnover could be £620-650m and Neymar or Mbappe would be paid in the same way they are now or the way City pay their superstars, half through the books in country of origin and the other half as a sporting ambassador of the state in that state.

Of course allowing either Neymar or Mbappe to leave Paris also conveniently solves their perilous position of being sanctioned by UEFA for not conforming to the 90% rule next season.

These lists are pointless until we see who actually owns Manchester United on the 1st June 2023.

Very well written mate. I have often thought the same thing in regards to if Qatar buy the club.

PSG have a Mbappe problem they know they need to fix this summer. He can walk for free to Real Madrid the following summer. A transfer of money within the state through the books of both clubs United and PSG. Sell him to United for €140-150m.

Let Manchester United be the new project for Qatar, PSG hasn't worked as of now. PSG's turnover currently isn't enough to take them to the next level and still stay within FFP rules. United's current 600m turnover with new sponsorships deals can rise to 700m within 2 years.

Bring in the superstars to United and grow the global brand as well as advertising the brand of Qatar to the world.

Lets see who the other private bidders are too.
 
If the club is bought by Qatar.

In's

Mbappe (€140-150m)
Bellingham (€120-130m)
Young backup CB (€40-50m)
RB (€30-40m)

(DM needed too, perhaps a free or loan)

€330-370m


Out's

Maguire (45m)
Henderson (£25m)
Telles (£8m)
Bailly (£15m)
Jones (Free)
VDB (£25m)
AWB (£35m)
Williams (£10m)
Tuanzebe (£7m)

Elanga (loan)
Hannibal (loan)
Iqbal (loan)
Savage (loan)
Amad (maybe loan)

£170m (€192m)
 
Are you going Ramos over Osimhen because of the rumoured £150m pricetag,would agree with the other options apart from Ceballos.
Think he fits the system better than Osimhen in terms of pressing from the front, link up play and drawing defenders out creating space for Rashford to run into.
 
Raya
Young CB
Rabiot
Bellingham
Kane

£250m

Out:

Mctominay
Maguire
Henderson

£90m
 
Top striker, another midfielder that has an impact between Eriksen and Casemiro levels, and that alone is a significant game changing summer.
 
Raya
Young CB
Rabiot
Bellingham
Kane

£250m

Out:

Mctominay
Maguire
Henderson

£90m
This would definitely work. Sign me up. Although there's no chance we're getting Bellingham, Kane looks difficult to get too, so getting both of them is somewhat unrealistic...
 
Some of these lists have 8 players in them and £300m+ of spend! That is not happening, Qatar or no Qatar. United still have to comply with the financial sustainability regulations and there is no way to get a whole load of bogus sponsorship deals in place in time to influence this summer's spend. Sorry muppets.
 
This would definitely work. Sign me up. Although there's no chance we're getting Bellingham, Kane looks difficult to get too, so getting both of them is somewhat unrealistic...

Yeah I think Bellingham is City or Madrids. But you never know if the money comes in.

Kane would be easier to get than Osihmen and cheaper. Which is why I went that root.
 
Some of these lists have 8 players in them and £300m+ of spend! That is not happening, Qatar or no Qatar. United still have to comply with the financial sustainability regulations and there is no way to get a whole load of bogus sponsorship deals in place in time to influence this summer's spend. Sorry muppets.
To be fair, most ffp calculations allow us £250m ish of spend, as long as we generate £100m of sales (not unrealistic) and we get CL next year.

I'm assuming £200-250m spend for each of the next 2 summers. Beyond that looks tricky.
 
If the more likely route than f club ownership occurs and Glaziers stay, we will be looking at the free Market so we might keep De Gea and tell D Raya to wait it out;

We might see only one marquee ;

V Osimhen £120m
S De Vrij or C Smalling - Free yes we could resign him as a stop gap plus he’s always been miles better than Maguire and Lindelof as a pure defender
N’golo Kante or Rabiot - Free
Ascensio or Tielemans - Free
Reus, Zaha or Dembelle - Free

Can’t see any more than one max two players being bought under the Glaziers, even with minority investment they have debt to service first. We might sign 2 players at £150/160m and two maybe three free transfers and this only if we sell 2 or 3 players first. This is not doom and gloom just a reality of the mess our parasitic owners have created.
 
Yeah I think Bellingham is City or Madrids. But you never know if the money comes in.

Kane would be easier to get than Osihmen and cheaper. Which is why I went that root.
Kane will be far more difficult to get, Levy starting position would be Maguire and Henderson plus £125m even with one year left on Kane contract!
 
To be fair, most ffp calculations allow us £250m ish of spend, as long as we generate £100m of sales (not unrealistic) and we get CL next year.

I'm assuming £200-250m spend for each of the next 2 summers. Beyond that looks tricky.
This summer should be ok with FFP sustainability rules set at 90% of turnover, contrary to popular belief we don’t need to generate £100m of sales on 8 or 9 players but we have a club losing money and owing money, these factors are more relevant. Interest rates go up and this means payments go up to service the debt which in turn means we start to lose money which last year with CL was over £100m.

Assuming we make at least one more final and finish 3rd, have finished certain players huge contracts(Cavani, Ronaldo etc) we might only lose £50m this year and then there is £30m of interest payments to factor in to service the £680m debt optimistically, wages are reduced to say £315m from £385m (20/25% Europa league clause).

Under current FFP Rules and regulations, Owners are allowed to put up to £60m of their own money to offset that loss but the Glaziers have and will never do that, all they will do is simply not take Dividends for a year or two why they refinance which will help a little.

Assuming clubs revenue is £550m this year, we could spend 90% or £495m on day to day running of club, players wages, Upfront Agent fees, now set at 10% max by FIFA and amortised net transfer sales.

So £495m becomes £415 on loss and servicing debt, we buy osimhen on £125m with a £12.5m agent fee, on a 5 year contract which amortises his sale value at £25m per year, we sell Dean Henderson for £25m on a 5 year contract, United only receive a £5m profit per year in amortised sales as the player did not cost the club anything. We also sell Harry Maguire who has two years of his contract left, we bought him for £80m, amortise on a 6 year contract of £16m per year which we are still paying and have to pay. We sell Maguire for £32m on a 2 year contract and receive £16m per year for 2 years amortised this means that by selling him this summer, it does help but not as much as selling players like Scott Mctominay and Dean Henderson who cost the club nothing.

The recent accounts showing the club owes something like £300m plus In amortised payments plus the debt is why Uefa want to eradicate this from the game but this will take time. So buying Osimhen and selling Henderson would be £20m net transfer position added to the agent fee of £12.5m, added to running costs and yearly debt £80m plus wages of £325m is £437.5m and potentially there would be room for more players to be bought providing we actually have the cash in the bank and are not paying dividends to six glazier siblings which also would be added to running costs and included in that 90%.

The following year the problem is critical as 80% is all that is allowed against turnover, if the glaziers stay and saddle us with more debt and higher interest payments, and the club starts to default on amortised payments then we will be sanctioned and potentially banned for one or two transfer windows. There’s no way under the Glaziers we could spend more than £80-100m in 2024/25 season and probably £50-60m in 25/26 summer when the threshold changes to 70%.
 
This summer should be ok with FFP sustainability rules set at 90% of turnover, contrary to popular belief we don’t need to generate £100m of sales on 8 or 9 players but we have a club losing money and owing money, these factors are more relevant. Interest rates go up and this means payments go up to service the debt which in turn means we start to lose money which last year with CL was over £100m.

Assuming we make at least one more final and finish 3rd, have finished certain players huge contracts(Cavani, Ronaldo etc) we might only lose £50m this year and then there is £30m of interest payments to factor in to service the £680m debt optimistically, wages are reduced to say £315m from £385m (20/25% Europa league clause).

Under current FFP Rules and regulations, Owners are allowed to put up to £60m of their own money to offset that loss but the Glaziers have and will never do that, all they will do is simply not take Dividends for a year or two why they refinance which will help a little.

Assuming clubs revenue is £550m this year, we could spend 90% or £495m on day to day running of club, players wages, Upfront Agent fees, now set at 10% max by FIFA and amortised net transfer sales.

So £495m becomes £415 on loss and servicing debt, we buy osimhen on £125m with a £12.5m agent fee, on a 5 year contract which amortises his sale value at £25m per year, we sell Dean Henderson for £25m on a 5 year contract, United only receive a £5m profit per year in amortised sales as the player did not cost the club anything. We also sell Harry Maguire who has two years of his contract left, we bought him for £80m, amortise on a 6 year contract of £16m per year which we are still paying and have to pay. We sell Maguire for £32m on a 2 year contract and receive £16m per year for 2 years amortised this means that by selling him this summer, it does help but not as much as selling players like Scott Mctominay and Dean Henderson who cost the club nothing.

The recent accounts showing the club owes something like £300m plus In amortised payments plus the debt is why Uefa want to eradicate this from the game but this will take time. So buying Osimhen and selling Henderson would be £20m net transfer position added to the agent fee of £12.5m, added to running costs and yearly debt £80m plus wages of £325m is £437.5m and potentially there would be room for more players to be bought providing we actually have the cash in the bank and are not paying dividends to six glazier siblings which also would be added to running costs and included in that 90%.

The following year the problem is critical as 80% is all that is allowed against turnover, if the glaziers stay and saddle us with more debt and higher interest payments, and the club starts to default on amortised payments then we will be sanctioned and potentially banned for one or two transfer windows. There’s no way under the Glaziers we could spend more than £80-100m in 2024/25 season and probably £50-60m in 25/26 summer when the threshold changes to 70%.
Thanks. So in summary, in your opinion how much can we realistically spend this summer?