‘Successful’ scenarios for Summer ‘23

Full muppet mode on (in realistic sense ):

In:
Kane - 80m
Hojlund - 55m
Mount - 35m
Rabiot - 0m (if we sell Mctominay)
Frimpong - 30m (if we sell AWB)
CB - 40m (if we sell Maguire)
GK - 30m (if we sell Henderson)

Out:
McTominay - 25m (if we buy Rabiot)
Maguire - 25m (if we buy CB)
Jones - free
VDB - 15m
Henderson - 20m (if we buy GK)
AWB - 30m (if we buy Frimpong)
Martial - 25m (if we buy Hojlund)

Net spending - 130m

De Gea (new GK)
Frimpong (AWB/Dalot) Varane (new CB) Martinez (Lindelof) Shaw (Malacia)
Casemiro (Fred) Eriksen (Rabiot/Mainoo)
Antony (Sancho/Diallo) Bruno (Mount) Rashford (Garnacho)
Kane (Hojlund)
​
 
Last edited:
NoPace said:
Absolute Minimum would probably be:

#9
#6/8
Maguire replacement
New keeper to challenge De Gea.

So this for example, with Kane, Caicedo, Kim Min Jae, Raya as the seemingly most often rumoured names, but Caicedo instead of Mount for balance:


------------------Kane--------------- (Martial, Rashford)
Rashford-------------------Antony (Garnacho, Sancho, Amad)
------------------Bruno--------------- (Eriksen)
--------Caicedo-Casemiro---- (Eriksen, Fred)
Shaw--------------------------Dalot. (AWB, Malacia)
----------Lisandro-Varane------ (Min Jae, Shaw, Lindelof)
-------------Raya/DeGea---------- (Butland/Heaton)

small squad of only 25 players as let's include one of Mainoo or Hannibal in midfield as the 6th guy and let's say Alvaro as a 9th defender.

But no single injury kills us, good balance, lots of talent.

We'd need a lot of development but that seems plausible with what Ten Hag did at Ajax. One of Garnacho/Sancho/Amad/Martial really having a great year as the 4th attacker (in order of likelihood), the midfield to stay healthy, as it's really just 4 quality players and Fred, Dalot to make the leap this year and his age implies it's plausible (or a shock attacking quality fluke year from AWB).
Click to expand...
A squad of 25 simply doesn’t cut it any more with teams who wish to compete on 4 fronts. Next year is the Euros in 2024 and you will always have at least 3/4 long term injuries always so you need a squad of 27 players. You can name 9 subs on the bench in the PL and 12 in Europe plus you can now make a minimum of 5 in game subs. Players that get injured the most are wing backs, inverted strikers, CFW and BTB midfielders, players who run a lot and draw the foul. We need 5 Full backs, Shaw, Malacia, AWB and Dalot should all be kept and we should go buy Hakimi or Frimpong as an out and out attacking full back. Thus season Shaw played 43 games, Dalot 40, Malacia 37 and AWB 28 that’s a healthy amount and all have had minor or more serious injuries. If we can beat Newcastle to KMJ he’s a perfect replacement for Maguire and a huge upgrade. We need a new GK, No 6, 8/10, CF and back up striker so here’s what I think we can get and would be a huge upgrade;

Squad 23/24
GK(3) - D Raya, D De Gea, T Heaton
Defenders (9) - AWB, D Dalot , J Frimpong, L Shaw, T Malacia, KMJ, R Varane, L Martinez, V Lindelof
Midfield (7) - Casemeiro, Bruno, Ericsen, Rice or Caciedo, Fred, M Mount , K Mainoo
Attackers (8) - Rashford, Sancho, Garnaucho, Antony, G Ramos or R Hojlund, M Thuram, A Martial, A Diallo

The only reason I think Martial stays is that no one’s buying him and paying his wages he’ll be a sub most of the season. We will not buy Kane spurs won’t sell, they might to Chelsea if T Boehly offers £150m but even then I doubt it?
 
Squad of 25 eh?

GK - Emi Martinez, Matej Kovar, Tom Heaton (3)
Defenders - Shaw, Malacia, Martinez, Varane, Lindelof, AWB, Dalot, Kim (8)
Midfielders - Bruno, Casemiro, Eriksen, Fred, Mainoo, Frenkie de Jong, James Ward Prowse. (7)
Attackers - Rashford, Sancho, Antony, Garnacho, Diallo, Pellistri, Vlahović (7)

5 players to buy.

Clear the rest.
 
Control or finishing ? - Football META & what would be sensible to do in transfer market ?

Ten Hag: “You’ve to do the right things, you can have money but you have to do it and spend it in a smart way and you need to have a strategy behind it”. #MUFC
“When there is no strategy or the right strategy, money doesn’t work”.

With our season over now we saw some good signs of progress meaning that ETH should be backed in the market. Saw some posts about preferring us to sign players who will help us control a game of football more rather than having what seems to be an obvious primary target this summer, a reliable ready-made striker to lead a front line who guarantees 20+ goals a season.

So, I kind of agree and here is why: despite the fact that we would obviously have more goals scored this season leading to more points gained, the way we "control" games is way too far from the desired one IMO. Of course, a striker would be handy and help us a lot but I see it more as skipping a step in the process of building something more sustainable.

Also, we are not in a great situation with both competitors and uncertainty over ownership of the club. We could easily miss out on our reported striker targets: Kolo Muani could be on his way to Bayern, Levy will fancy to sell Kane to Madrid rather than to us and we could be priced out by Di Laurentis for Osimhen.

If we manage to sign players who can help us control a game of football in the first place, adding a striker will be the end of the process.

Simple as it is, more possession means generating more control and also generating chances of a higher quality, while in meantime we will have more control of the opposition's actions leading to fewer chances conceded. That doesn't exclude signing a striker, as we have no reliable option there. In some way, possession based football is rightfully described as the best way to defend - opposition have no chance to score if the ball is in your possession ! Ok, that removes De Gea and Maguire from equitation before we even start.

Ok, personally I would like us to control games more but what stats are telling us, what is closest to reality - prolific striker or midfielder perhaps ? Here are some key states such as xG, xG difference, possession stats and others from Understat, Opta Analyst and other reliable sources to describe our situation.

In terms of creating high-quality chances, our team sits 6th best in the league with accumulated xG of 71.90 from 38 games, with Arsenal (76.51), Newcastle (76.98), Brighton (77.72), Liverpool (80.77) and City (84.32) above us.

Put in perspective that we scored just 58 goals during last season it makes our xG difference (xG - goals scored) +13.90 and that speak enough about our finishing - we are bottom of the league according to xG difference, with only Everton having a worse record at +14.65 and Chelsea close to ours at +13.89.

Interestly, the team that overachieved in terms of goals scored in this year's campaign is Tottenham and that is mostly due to the world class finishing of Harry Kane. Their record is 70 goals scored from xG of 57.83 with xG difference of - 12.17.

Also, we are 6th best in the league for expected assist (xA) and final 3rd passess, but we are second best for key passess recording a total 478 during the season with only two less than Brighton. Analogy to our xG difference, we are also in the bottom three for xA difference (xA - assists) with only Chelsea and Wolves with worse records than ours.

As for control, our record for average possession is 53.8%, with Arsenal (58.0%), Chelsea (58.4 %), Liverpool (61.3 %), Brighton (61.5 %) and City (65.1 %) above us. Interestly, despite our very good home record this season we recorded better average possession in away games (54.7%) compared to home games (52.9%).

Our completion of passess also see us behind our rivals, with 80.9% completed passess - Tottenham (81.2%), Liverpool (82.3%), Arsenal (83.2%), Chelsea (83.8%), Brighton (83.9%) and City (87.3%) are all above us.

When we talk about controlling events on the pitch, it is also interesting to see that we are certainly not a high pressing team with our average height of defensive line of 41.52m, with only Bournemouth and Nottingham behind us. But we managed to be very dangerous when it came to turnovers and fast transitions. We recorded a total of 328 high turnovers which see us 6th best in the league, but we are 3rd best when it comes to shot ending high turnovers with a total of 61, just slightly behind Arsenal and Brighton. That indicates that with players like Casemiro, Bruno and Rashford we tend to attack quickly once we win the ball rather than retain possession and build up patiently. But again, our finishing chances that came from turnovers are low quality as we sit in the bottom half with 4 goals from that kind of situation with just Nottingham, Southampton, Chelsea, Everton and Wolverhampton behind us.

Taking a look at these stats it tells us that we are still a team that is more comfortable in the middle press rather than high and heavily relies on fast transitions to create chances, so with pace in mind maybe Osimhen would be a better fit than Kane. But for now, we are talking hypothetically about the scenario of turning us into a team that controls the game better to create high quality chances through structured build up.

To conclude, we need both: the eye test along with stats tells us we need more technical players to control games better and stats proves that we are in real need of a striker to finish chances we create and not depend on Rashford as our only reliable outlet to score.

Ideally, we would sign both but let assume that without the Qatari takeover we have a slightly limited budget to operate so we have to choose this summer between an established striker or goalkeeper and midfielder.

First of all, I want to take your attention straight away from football formations - as lovely as it looks on paper, they are just numbers and the game of football with so many different phases of play simply doesn't work that way. Your attention should be directed more on the average shape of the team in those phases, rather than on formations indeed.

For all who are not familiar with the term META, it's shorten for "most effective tactics available" and you'll see the most successful teams in today's game doing similar things, wanting to control both half-spaces as it is believed that is crucial thing to do if you want to build sustainable possession and structured attacks. But the real question is how they control those areas ?

When you think about coaches who changed a football game, it's almost impossible to make a list without mentioning Pep Guardiola. Not that he was and still is very much successful, he set a lot of trends in modern game but also his ex co-workers today have successful careers themself following some of his principles : Erik Ten Hag, Mikel Arteta and Xavi Hernandez.

Both Xavi at Barcelona and Arteta at Arsenal showed great form in domestic leagues this season and they both share a lot with how Guardiola approaches the tactics. When it comes to controlling events on the pitch they share the same belief that is essential to form a box (square) in middlefield area. So, let's take a look at what's really happening and how that can be of importance in our transfer market strategy.

Here we can see how all three managers set up their teams this season and key notes to their good displays are described too.

City has won five league titles in the last six seasons and one of the instrumental players to that success were Zinchenko and Cancelo and shortly after a lot of managers felt in love with an idea of inverted full backs moving into midfield to create double pivot and "box" of midfield players to get better control of half-spaces. But, this year those two players gone to Arsenal and Bayern respectively and Pep came with the idea of John Stones who stepped into midfield and that tweak was crucial to their form after WC.



In this picture we see their usual shape in the games after WC with one important tweak. Now that Cancelo and Zinchenko are gone, Stones creates a double pivot with Rodri while at the other end of the box we have two "free no.8" moving between the lines. Nathan Ake is also underrated and so important to this side as he is naturally left footed and Akanji is also here to help to create a wider base of three players to play through or around the press.

Here we have different way to create a box of midfield players with some players having different roles to City but principles of play stays more or less the same and that adjustments are made to match their players best abilities.

Moving Gavi from his starting position of a left winger, where he is positioned on the paper, into a midfield where he operates indeed, they created a very strong box in the middle with his best on the ball players: Pedri, Gavi, FDJ and Busquets. That also allows Balde to use the width of the whole left side and he is the most efficient in doing that as he is very quick and good in 1v1 situations.



Also, it was not strange to see Marcos Alonso starting at LCB for noticable amount of games as he is left-footed, despite he spent almost his whole career before on LB/LWB position.

IMO one of the best transfers in the EPL this year was made by Arsenal when they signed Zinchenko practically under the radar. Arteta creates a box with moving Zinchenko infield rather than staying wide, this is why he is so instrumental for him and was also important during his days at City as he flourished in that role.



Also, there is no surprise seeing White playing the whole season at the right back as he forms three man line to have wider base to circulate a ball around a press looking for a a pass to reach players forming box in half-spaces. When we think about White in Brighton and how Potter set up them, we can find similarities in his positioning when in possession so he is more than capable playing this role for Arsenal.

Managers who use specific possession oriented systems tend to have a great run of success and more consistent performances in the league. In his first season, ETH showed us that he can be pragmatic enough to take us to the latter stages of cup competitions but what he can do to be more consistent in our league is the real question.

The latest phase of his Ajax career Erik ten Hag did follow similar principles with creating a wide base of Blind (left foot), Martinez and Timber with Mazraoui moving into half space to provide numerical superiority of the middle zone.



That and some of the displays in his first season with us gives me assurance that he will try to develop that kind of system here.

Luke Shaw is one of the most important players in our squad as he gives us so many options with him being capable of many different roles within a system: he is equally comfortable as LCB, as overlapping full back stretching the field or as inverted full back, stucking narrow to create a box in the middle - all three roles that we saw instrumental in systems from other clubs that were described before.



One of the terms that we often can hear from ETH is “changing the dynamic” of the game and we can see how Shaw can be instrumental for that but also how signing of some players like Frimpong or Timber can help us being more flexible and less predictible during matches.

In this kind of setup, we rarely see classic overlapping fullbacks from the right side with players like Stones, White and Kounde playing these roles as some kind of "third centre back" who are comfortable in wide areas as well as in the middle.

Their attacking part of the play is not what we usually expect from a full back - overlapping down the flank and putting some good crosses in the box. Rather than that, their influence in attack should be measured by those well balanced passess that help the team progress the ball through the middle as they help the team to create better chances than ones that will come from usual crosses.

What is also a benefit of this setup is that when either full back or free no.8 make underlapping runs the other one can find more often themself in position to put a cross from the half spaces rather than pumping ball into the box from the line. Those crosses are much better in terms of quality and angle so chances created from crosses will be of better quality and higher xG.

That's why I'm reserved with Dalot, he showed that he can play that exact role and his form before WC was very good to excellent. Also, it's a reason why some fans just don't rate Diogo's attacking ability as they expected him to do what is not requested from him in this setup at all.

Hence, that's also why I see moving TAA into the middle to create a double pivot with Fabinho being so crucial for Liverpool's form at the end of the season as well as having players Jota and Diaz back and available.

This is why I think links with Jurrien Timber seem legit and I can see that rumours starting again this summer. The position of Stones, White and Kounde is the reason why I believe some members of CAF see Timber as perfect signing for that CB/RB hybrid role, but I would be against a loan move for Noussair Mazraoui if our budget is limited as reported.

We also have been linked with a move for Jeremy Frimpong several times, who is very pacy and attacking and I can see that as a potential plan when Antony is not on the field. In that scenario, we saw Bruno starting as RW and with Frimpong at RB he would maintain width in attack from the right side while Bruno would tuck inside to create “box of midfield'' similar to how Xavi did it this season with Gavi and Balde at left side.


Moving full back centrally is not only giving you a numerical superiority in the middle but also gives you the option to quickly switch to back four once possession is lost. In case that player responsible to mark full back decides to go tight on him in the middle to prevent numerical superiority in the middle, you have opened a passing lane directly to move ball forward in wide area and that is where importance of the left foot at LCB starts as it gives you better angles in possession and more passing lanes to progress the ball further up the pitch. The importance of left foot for this setup can be seen in Marcos Alonso starting to play at LCB position under Xavi more than what it is supposed to be his natural LB position till date. The same goes for us having Licha and preferring Shaw to cover him over any other natural CB but also being a left footed was crucial for Gabriel's and Colwill's first team breakthroughs this season.

Goalkeepers are crucial to this approach and the best evidence of that is Guardiola's decision to move from established goalkeepers like Joe Hart and Claudio Bravo to finally settle with Ederson. In order to control a game of football it is important to have a goalkeeper who is comfortable with the ball at his feet.

Using of an extra man in the build up most of the times force opposition too narrow to prevent potential numerical advantage in the middle and that leaves a free man in wide areas - that is why execution of those chipped passess are very important as well as ability to soak up pressure and play comfortable throughout the middle if gap is opened.

This is where we have to improve in order to control games as De Gea is terrible at those things as well as he is in sweeping, which is very important if you want to build sustainable attacks and spend a considerable amount of the game high up in opposition's half. Not to mention his inability to claim cross as but is not part of this topic. We simply suffer too much with him between the sticks and we are losing any chance of controlling a game through possession once he starts to launch long balls after long balls without any meaningful purpose bar not making a mess in his own yard.

An easy eye test can tell you how much of a difference is between having DDG or having Onana, as we all saw the FA Cup final and the CL final in the space of just one week.

A century old football approach that teams from Austria, Hungary and Czehoslovakia used in the 1920s was 2-3-2-3 or WM shape but the most successful manager using that kind of shape was Vittorio Pozzo who won back to back World Cups in 1934 and 1938 with Italy. MW shape was also implemented in 1920s when Herbert Chapman was at Arsenal and that shape looks more similar to one described here before, but we can see a little bit of both WM and MW shape in today's game.

Mostly we can see the use of both, depending on where and in which phase of play your team is. When you are in the first phase (goal kick), centre backs split and you have three man base together with the goalkeeper. But when you move up in the pitch you lose the advantage of goalkeeper as an extra man, that is where MW shape kicks in.

So, does football go in cycles ? That is why, as hard as it is to agree, I believe Pep is a living football legend as he set so many trends in the modern game. Many historians consider Hitler to be the greatest military leader of all time, regardless of his malignant nature, because when he signed the capitulation of France in 1940 in the same way at the same place that Germany was humiliated by France in 1918, he in some way reunited the two biggest wars ever. Can we then talk about Pep as one of the greatest coaches of all time because he conquered the game of football by modernising the century-old approach ?

Goalkeeper:

Mike Maignan would be a dream signing but slightly unrealistic, Diogo Costa might be to expensive but talent wise is also closest to Ederson and Alisson in his style, so some of the most realistic targets in this summer could be Andre Onana, David Raya and Robert Sanchez who I still rate despite he is currently out of favour at Brighton. Weird choice, very much unrealistic and highly unlikely, but if we let DDG go, I wouldn't even be against Manuel Neuer as short term option if Bayern choose to sell him and if he recovers well from his leg break (bit risky given how urgent GK position is for us) with Bart Verbruggen being his understudy and young up and coming no.2, but it's hard to believe we would go for two goalkeepers in the same window. One thing is sure for me - sticking with DDG as our no.1 could eventually cost ETH a job here.

Defence:

At the moment we have quite decent and dependable options in defence with 7 first team players: Martinez, Varane, Lindelof, Shaw, Dalot and Malacia. But recent injuries to both Varane and Martinez along with drop in form by Dalot and Malacia made our defence again an area to improve in the summer transfer window. Also, it is worth noting that some players are yet to renew their contracts and others attract interest from other clubs.

First target would be Jurrien Timber who is excellent in possession and is also a great option to have as he can cover both CB and RB positions. It is also a big plus that he previously worked under ETH. In possession, he would offer similar traits as White and Kounde do for their teams respectively.

If we are short with funds, the option could be a loan deal for Noussair Mazroui. What signing of Mazroui gives is also a lot of options to rotate and change dynamics of the game as we could use Dalot on the left side occasionally, if we have to play Shaw at the LCB, for example. He also mastered his narrow role under the coaching of ETH and surely wouldn't be against this move as he is out of favour at Bayern at the moment.

Third and the least likely option, as Shaw proved to be a very good at LCB position, would be signing of another left footed defender as a backup for Martinez so Shaw can play as a LB, and my choice would be Facundo Medina.

Stylistically very similar player to Martinez, probably the closest you can find in the market and is very much available as he can earn five times more as a back up here then what he currently have at Lens. Position wise, he occupies the similar space as Martinez when his team is in possession and he has very good technique for defenders, making those passess and carries that are so important for progressing the ball from the back. His style of defending is also very much Latine-aggressive but still not at the same level as Martinez is.

Apparently, we were in the race for Kim Min-Jae from Napoli, which is not surprising as he is great in playing high defensive line and has ability to progress the ball further. Also, although he is right footed, he mostly played at LCB for Napoli, but I can see ETH sticking with the Licha/Shaw rotation there as left foot is so important there for sequences in possession.

Midfield:

Our midfield options were significantly improved last window with the signing of Eriksen and Casemiro, but somehow I still believe we can do better in terms of control and progressing the ball.

As long as I love Eriksen, he has the ability to progress the ball through excellent passing but carrying the ball, taking on people or dribbling a way out of press is not his thing. That's why I see links with FDJ legit as he possesses the perfect skillset to be at the other end of the magical midfield box, picking the ball between the lines and driving it forward. But as he is not available, I would look for his closest alternatives at the market. Luckily, there are two players who are coming to an end of their current contracts and represent both experience in Mateo Kovačić and young talent in Enzo Le Fee, who could both be signed for a price of FDJ alone, maybe even less. Shame that Kovačić is gonna end up in Manchester City for a bargain fee.

Attack:

Like the icing on top of the cake, at the end of the process it is our attack and we would have a great use of centre forward. Both Harry Kane and Victor Osimhen are elite level finishers and despite obvious differences in their style, it's no surprise we are linked with a move for those two, but I consider Kane a more realistic target than Osimhen. I just can't see Osimhen leaving Napoli this summer and if he leaves it will be for some astronomical figures that removes us from the race.

ETH throughout his career showed how he can be very flexible when it comes to forward position, so I strongly believe he wouldn't find fitting classy players like Kane into his ideas. If we struggle to find a starting striker due to high asking prices and ETH decides to go with Rashford as our no.9, then I can see recent reports claiming that ETH is looking for more depth at LW legit. What we would get with Rashford at no.9 is not just about his goal scoring ability and movements but his pace will help us to push opponents lines much more deeper.

That’s also, along with stats from last season that see us relying on quick transitions, a reason why I believe in reports about Rasmus Hojlund because, despite still being raw, he offers pace and power. In the meantime we can build a team that can control matches better with a possible option to sign Kane on free next season at the end of the process.

Also, as we will start to dominate and control the game much more, we will spend a lot more time in the opposition's half. So, that is when the technical ability and vision of the winger will surpass the electric pace as one of the main weapons for that role. This is where I see the last chance for Jadon Sancho to finally start to perform at the consistent level. That said, I can see Amad having a role in our squad at the RW position, especially if we start to control games more and push opponents in their own half.

Unrealistic for this summer, but if we fail to bring in a prolific CF starter and choose to play Rashford there, my choice for the LW role would be Kaoru Mitoma.

Ten Hag when asked by The Times on Mason Greenwood future: “He has showed in the past that he is capable of scoring goals”. #MUFC
…but emphasises it’s “not my decision as to whether he returns”.

Erik ten Hag when asked on Harry Kane for Man Utd: “Kane in the list? What we need besides Marcus Rashford is one extra player with scoring abilities…”, told Times. #MUFC

“We need it, whether it’s coming out of our own squad or we have to sign one”.

Recent quotes from ETH also suggest that we shouldn't be surprised if we see MG as a part of our preseason squad - still young, he is one of the most natural finishers we had in years and ETH is smart enough to not let him easily go.

Don't get me wrong, I would love us to sign a new striker and it will be a dream to have big enough budget to do all that business in one window, but if I have to choose between splashing a cash at striker or signing a GK, CM and CB/RB to gain more control and stick with Rashford as our no.9, I think I will choose the latter, as strange as it sounds. Unpopular opinion and less likely, but we still could see bad boy MG playing for our club next season and he is one of the most naturally gifted finishers around.

I know some would point out the age of certain players but IMO neitHer you are old at 29 ( I think that football developed in this particular area ), neither this is a Football Manager to go out full wonderkid mode. I simply choose players based on style I think ETH is trying to build and availability of certain players in this summer market. If we want to bring the best out of the spine of Varane, Martinez, Shaw, Casemiro, Bruno and Eriksen we should meet players who can have immediate impact or we our thread "what do we still need" will go more and more in cycles - signing player who is not proved and try to develop him, you may lose some of players from the spine in meantime.

Also, IMO signing a player in age of 29-30 does not decrease our chances to go and sign another younger "the next big thing" in the next few windows - most people didn't know that f.e. Enzo Fernandez even existed in the football universe a year or two ago.

I'm more than excited seeing us linked with some players mentioned here: Kim Min-Jae, Kovačić, Timber, Onana, Verbruggen, Kane and even read some links with Mazroui. A summer of, f.e., Onana, Timber, Kane, Le Fee and Kovačić with MG and Amad joining the first team would be a dream scenario and would make us a really strong team.

Based on that and last summer deals, I somehow believe our recruitment team is doing a decent job - certainly better than what was the previous practice and I hope that the ownership situation will be resolved soon.
 
Lux Thunder said:
Control or finishing ? - Football META & what would be sensible to do in transfer market ?

Ten Hag: “You’ve to do the right things, you can have money but you have to do it and spend it in a smart way and you need to have a strategy behind it”. #MUFC
“When there is no strategy or the right strategy, money doesn’t work”.

With our season over now we saw some good signs of progress meaning that ETH should be backed in the market. Saw some posts about preferring us to sign players who will help us control a game of football more rather than having what seems to be an obvious primary target this summer, a reliable ready-made striker to lead a front line who guarantees 20+ goals a season.

So, I kind of agree and here is why: despite the fact that we would obviously have more goals scored this season leading to more points gained, the way we "control" games is way too far from the desired one IMO. Of course, a striker would be handy and help us a lot but I see it more as skipping a step in the process of building something more sustainable.

Also, we are not in a great situation with both competitors and uncertainty over ownership of the club. We could easily miss out on our reported striker targets: Kolo Muani could be on his way to Bayern, Levy will fancy to sell Kane to Madrid rather than to us and we could be priced out by Di Laurentis for Osimhen.

If we manage to sign players who can help us control a game of football in the first place, adding a striker will be the end of the process.

Simple as it is, more possession means generating more control and also generating chances of a higher quality, while in meantime we will have more control of the opposition's actions leading to fewer chances conceded. That doesn't exclude signing a striker, as we have no reliable option there. In some way, possession based football is rightfully described as the best way to defend - opposition have no chance to score if the ball is in your possession ! Ok, that removes De Gea and Maguire from equitation before we even start.

Ok, personally I would like us to control games more but what stats are telling us, what is closest to reality - prolific striker or midfielder perhaps ? Here are some key states such as xG, xG difference, possession stats and others from Understat, Opta Analyst and other reliable sources to describe our situation.

In terms of creating high-quality chances, our team sits 6th best in the league with accumulated xG of 71.90 from 38 games, with Arsenal (76.51), Newcastle (76.98), Brighton (77.72), Liverpool (80.77) and City (84.32) above us.

Put in perspective that we scored just 58 goals during last season it makes our xG difference (xG - goals scored) +13.90 and that speak enough about our finishing - we are bottom of the league according to xG difference, with only Everton having a worse record at +14.65 and Chelsea close to ours at +13.89.

Interestly, the team that overachieved in terms of goals scored in this year's campaign is Tottenham and that is mostly due to the world class finishing of Harry Kane. Their record is 70 goals scored from xG of 57.83 with xG difference of - 12.17.

Also, we are 6th best in the league for expected assist (xA) and final 3rd passess, but we are second best for key passess recording a total 478 during the season with only two less than Brighton. Analogy to our xG difference, we are also in the bottom three for xA difference (xA - assists) with only Chelsea and Wolves with worse records than ours.

As for control, our record for average possession is 53.8%, with Arsenal (58.0%), Chelsea (58.4 %), Liverpool (61.3 %), Brighton (61.5 %) and City (65.1 %) above us. Interestly, despite our very good home record this season we recorded better average possession in away games (54.7%) compared to home games (52.9%).

Our completion of passess also see us behind our rivals, with 80.9% completed passess - Tottenham (81.2%), Liverpool (82.3%), Arsenal (83.2%), Chelsea (83.8%), Brighton (83.9%) and City (87.3%) are all above us.

When we talk about controlling events on the pitch, it is also interesting to see that we are certainly not a high pressing team with our average height of defensive line of 41.52m, with only Bournemouth and Nottingham behind us. But we managed to be very dangerous when it came to turnovers and fast transitions. We recorded a total of 328 high turnovers which see us 6th best in the league, but we are 3rd best when it comes to shot ending high turnovers with a total of 61, just slightly behind Arsenal and Brighton. That indicates that with players like Casemiro, Bruno and Rashford we tend to attack quickly once we win the ball rather than retain possession and build up patiently. But again, our finishing chances that came from turnovers are low quality as we sit in the bottom half with 4 goals from that kind of situation with just Nottingham, Southampton, Chelsea, Everton and Wolverhampton behind us.

Taking a look at these stats it tells us that we are still a team that is more comfortable in the middle press rather than high and heavily relies on fast transitions to create chances, so with pace in mind maybe Osimhen would be a better fit than Kane. But for now, we are talking hypothetically about the scenario of turning us into a team that controls the game better to create high quality chances through structured build up.

To conclude, we need both: the eye test along with stats tells us we need more technical players to control games better and stats proves that we are in real need of a striker to finish chances we create and not depend on Rashford as our only reliable outlet to score.

Ideally, we would sign both but let assume that without the Qatari takeover we have a slightly limited budget to operate so we have to choose this summer between an established striker or goalkeeper and midfielder.

First of all, I want to take your attention straight away from football formations - as lovely as it looks on paper, they are just numbers and the game of football with so many different phases of play simply doesn't work that way. Your attention should be directed more on the average shape of the team in those phases, rather than on formations indeed.

For all who are not familiar with the term META, it's shorten for "most effective tactics available" and you'll see the most successful teams in today's game doing similar things, wanting to control both half-spaces as it is believed that is crucial thing to do if you want to build sustainable possession and structured attacks. But the real question is how they control those areas ?

When you think about coaches who changed a football game, it's almost impossible to make a list without mentioning Pep Guardiola. Not that he was and still is very much successful, he set a lot of trends in modern game but also his ex co-workers today have successful careers themself following some of his principles : Erik Ten Hag, Mikel Arteta and Xavi Hernandez.

Both Xavi at Barcelona and Arteta at Arsenal showed great form in domestic leagues this season and they both share a lot with how Guardiola approaches the tactics. When it comes to controlling events on the pitch they share the same belief that is essential to form a box (square) in middlefield area. So, let's take a look at what's really happening and how that can be of importance in our transfer market strategy.

Here we can see how all three managers set up their teams this season and key notes to their good displays are described too.

City has won five league titles in the last six seasons and one of the instrumental players to that success were Zinchenko and Cancelo and shortly after a lot of managers felt in love with an idea of inverted full backs moving into midfield to create double pivot and "box" of midfield players to get better control of half-spaces. But, this year those two players gone to Arsenal and Bayern respectively and Pep came with the idea of John Stones who stepped into midfield and that tweak was crucial to their form after WC.



In this picture we see their usual shape in the games after WC with one important tweak. Now that Cancelo and Zinchenko are gone, Stones creates a double pivot with Rodri while at the other end of the box we have two "free no.8" moving between the lines. Nathan Ake is also underrated and so important to this side as he is naturally left footed and Akanji is also here to help to create a wider base of three players to play through or around the press.

Here we have different way to create a box of midfield players with some players having different roles to City but principles of play stays more or less the same and that adjustments are made to match their players best abilities.

Moving Gavi from his starting position of a left winger, where he is positioned on the paper, into a midfield where he operates indeed, they created a very strong box in the middle with his best on the ball players: Pedri, Gavi, FDJ and Busquets. That also allows Balde to use the width of the whole left side and he is the most efficient in doing that as he is very quick and good in 1v1 situations.



Also, it was not strange to see Marcos Alonso starting at LCB for noticable amount of games as he is left-footed, despite he spent almost his whole career before on LB/LWB position.

IMO one of the best transfers in the EPL this year was made by Arsenal when they signed Zinchenko practically under the radar. Arteta creates a box with moving Zinchenko infield rather than staying wide, this is why he is so instrumental for him and was also important during his days at City as he flourished in that role.



Also, there is no surprise seeing White playing the whole season at the right back as he forms three man line to have wider base to circulate a ball around a press looking for a a pass to reach players forming box in half-spaces. When we think about White in Brighton and how Potter set up them, we can find similarities in his positioning when in possession so he is more than capable playing this role for Arsenal.

Managers who use specific possession oriented systems tend to have a great run of success and more consistent performances in the league. In his first season, ETH showed us that he can be pragmatic enough to take us to the latter stages of cup competitions but what he can do to be more consistent in our league is the real question.

The latest phase of his Ajax career Erik ten Hag did follow similar principles with creating a wide base of Blind (left foot), Martinez and Timber with Mazraoui moving into half space to provide numerical superiority of the middle zone.



That and some of the displays in his first season with us gives me assurance that he will try to develop that kind of system here.

Luke Shaw is one of the most important players in our squad as he gives us so many options with him being capable of many different roles within a system: he is equally comfortable as LCB, as overlapping full back stretching the field or as inverted full back, stucking narrow to create a box in the middle - all three roles that we saw instrumental in systems from other clubs that were described before.



One of the terms that we often can hear from ETH is “changing the dynamic” of the game and we can see how Shaw can be instrumental for that but also how signing of some players like Frimpong or Timber can help us being more flexible and less predictible during matches.

In this kind of setup, we rarely see classic overlapping fullbacks from the right side with players like Stones, White and Kounde playing these roles as some kind of "third centre back" who are comfortable in wide areas as well as in the middle.

Their attacking part of the play is not what we usually expect from a full back - overlapping down the flank and putting some good crosses in the box. Rather than that, their influence in attack should be measured by those well balanced passess that help the team progress the ball through the middle as they help the team to create better chances than ones that will come from usual crosses.

What is also a benefit of this setup is that when either full back or free no.8 make underlapping runs the other one can find more often themself in position to put a cross from the half spaces rather than pumping ball into the box from the line. Those crosses are much better in terms of quality and angle so chances created from crosses will be of better quality and higher xG.

That's why I'm reserved with Dalot, he showed that he can play that exact role and his form before WC was very good to excellent. Also, it's a reason why some fans just don't rate Diogo's attacking ability as they expected him to do what is not requested from him in this setup at all.

Hence, that's also why I see moving TAA into the middle to create a double pivot with Fabinho being so crucial for Liverpool's form at the end of the season as well as having players Jota and Diaz back and available.

This is why I think links with Jurrien Timber seem legit and I can see that rumours starting again this summer. The position of Stones, White and Kounde is the reason why I believe some members of CAF see Timber as perfect signing for that CB/RB hybrid role, but I would be against a loan move for Noussair Mazraoui if our budget is limited as reported.

We also have been linked with a move for Jeremy Frimpong several times, who is very pacy and attacking and I can see that as a potential plan when Antony is not on the field. In that scenario, we saw Bruno starting as RW and with Frimpong at RB he would maintain width in attack from the right side while Bruno would tuck inside to create “box of midfield'' similar to how Xavi did it this season with Gavi and Balde at left side.


Moving full back centrally is not only giving you a numerical superiority in the middle but also gives you the option to quickly switch to back four once possession is lost. In case that player responsible to mark full back decides to go tight on him in the middle to prevent numerical superiority in the middle, you have opened a passing lane directly to move ball forward in wide area and that is where importance of the left foot at LCB starts as it gives you better angles in possession and more passing lanes to progress the ball further up the pitch. The importance of left foot for this setup can be seen in Marcos Alonso starting to play at LCB position under Xavi more than what it is supposed to be his natural LB position till date. The same goes for us having Licha and preferring Shaw to cover him over any other natural CB but also being a left footed was crucial for Gabriel's and Colwill's first team breakthroughs this season.

Goalkeepers are crucial to this approach and the best evidence of that is Guardiola's decision to move from established goalkeepers like Joe Hart and Claudio Bravo to finally settle with Ederson. In order to control a game of football it is important to have a goalkeeper who is comfortable with the ball at his feet.

Using of an extra man in the build up most of the times force opposition too narrow to prevent potential numerical advantage in the middle and that leaves a free man in wide areas - that is why execution of those chipped passess are very important as well as ability to soak up pressure and play comfortable throughout the middle if gap is opened.

This is where we have to improve in order to control games as De Gea is terrible at those things as well as he is in sweeping, which is very important if you want to build sustainable attacks and spend a considerable amount of the game high up in opposition's half. Not to mention his inability to claim cross as but is not part of this topic. We simply suffer too much with him between the sticks and we are losing any chance of controlling a game through possession once he starts to launch long balls after long balls without any meaningful purpose bar not making a mess in his own yard.

An easy eye test can tell you how much of a difference is between having DDG or having Onana, as we all saw the FA Cup final and the CL final in the space of just one week.

A century old football approach that teams from Austria, Hungary and Czehoslovakia used in the 1920s was 2-3-2-3 or WM shape but the most successful manager using that kind of shape was Vittorio Pozzo who won back to back World Cups in 1934 and 1938 with Italy. MW shape was also implemented in 1920s when Herbert Chapman was at Arsenal and that shape looks more similar to one described here before, but we can see a little bit of both WM and MW shape in today's game.

Mostly we can see the use of both, depending on where and in which phase of play your team is. When you are in the first phase (goal kick), centre backs split and you have three man base together with the goalkeeper. But when you move up in the pitch you lose the advantage of goalkeeper as an extra man, that is where MW shape kicks in.

So, does football go in cycles ? That is why, as hard as it is to agree, I believe Pep is a living football legend as he set so many trends in the modern game. Many historians consider Hitler to be the greatest military leader of all time, regardless of his malignant nature, because when he signed the capitulation of France in 1940 in the same way at the same place that Germany was humiliated by France in 1918, he in some way reunited the two biggest wars ever. Can we then talk about Pep as one of the greatest coaches of all time because he conquered the game of football by modernising the century-old approach ?

Goalkeeper:

Mike Maignan would be a dream signing but slightly unrealistic, Diogo Costa might be to expensive but talent wise is also closest to Ederson and Alisson in his style, so some of the most realistic targets in this summer could be Andre Onana, David Raya and Robert Sanchez who I still rate despite he is currently out of favour at Brighton. Weird choice, very much unrealistic and highly unlikely, but if we let DDG go, I wouldn't even be against Manuel Neuer as short term option if Bayern choose to sell him and if he recovers well from his leg break (bit risky given how urgent GK position is for us) with Bart Verbruggen being his understudy and young up and coming no.2, but it's hard to believe we would go for two goalkeepers in the same window. One thing is sure for me - sticking with DDG as our no.1 could eventually cost ETH a job here.

Defence:

At the moment we have quite decent and dependable options in defence with 7 first team players: Martinez, Varane, Lindelof, Shaw, Dalot and Malacia. But recent injuries to both Varane and Martinez along with drop in form by Dalot and Malacia made our defence again an area to improve in the summer transfer window. Also, it is worth noting that some players are yet to renew their contracts and others attract interest from other clubs.

First target would be Jurrien Timber who is excellent in possession and is also a great option to have as he can cover both CB and RB positions. It is also a big plus that he previously worked under ETH. In possession, he would offer similar traits as White and Kounde do for their teams respectively.

If we are short with funds, the option could be a loan deal for Noussair Mazroui. What signing of Mazroui gives is also a lot of options to rotate and change dynamics of the game as we could use Dalot on the left side occasionally, if we have to play Shaw at the LCB, for example. He also mastered his narrow role under the coaching of ETH and surely wouldn't be against this move as he is out of favour at Bayern at the moment.

Third and the least likely option, as Shaw proved to be a very good at LCB position, would be signing of another left footed defender as a backup for Martinez so Shaw can play as a LB, and my choice would be Facundo Medina.

Stylistically very similar player to Martinez, probably the closest you can find in the market and is very much available as he can earn five times more as a back up here then what he currently have at Lens. Position wise, he occupies the similar space as Martinez when his team is in possession and he has very good technique for defenders, making those passess and carries that are so important for progressing the ball from the back. His style of defending is also very much Latine-aggressive but still not at the same level as Martinez is.

Apparently, we were in the race for Kim Min-Jae from Napoli, which is not surprising as he is great in playing high defensive line and has ability to progress the ball further. Also, although he is right footed, he mostly played at LCB for Napoli, but I can see ETH sticking with the Licha/Shaw rotation there as left foot is so important there for sequences in possession.

Midfield:

Our midfield options were significantly improved last window with the signing of Eriksen and Casemiro, but somehow I still believe we can do better in terms of control and progressing the ball.

As long as I love Eriksen, he has the ability to progress the ball through excellent passing but carrying the ball, taking on people or dribbling a way out of press is not his thing. That's why I see links with FDJ legit as he possesses the perfect skillset to be at the other end of the magical midfield box, picking the ball between the lines and driving it forward. But as he is not available, I would look for his closest alternatives at the market. Luckily, there are two players who are coming to an end of their current contracts and represent both experience in Mateo Kovačić and young talent in Enzo Le Fee, who could both be signed for a price of FDJ alone, maybe even less. Shame that Kovačić is gonna end up in Manchester City for a bargain fee.

Attack:

Like the icing on top of the cake, at the end of the process it is our attack and we would have a great use of centre forward. Both Harry Kane and Victor Osimhen are elite level finishers and despite obvious differences in their style, it's no surprise we are linked with a move for those two, but I consider Kane a more realistic target than Osimhen. I just can't see Osimhen leaving Napoli this summer and if he leaves it will be for some astronomical figures that removes us from the race.

ETH throughout his career showed how he can be very flexible when it comes to forward position, so I strongly believe he wouldn't find fitting classy players like Kane into his ideas. If we struggle to find a starting striker due to high asking prices and ETH decides to go with Rashford as our no.9, then I can see recent reports claiming that ETH is looking for more depth at LW legit. What we would get with Rashford at no.9 is not just about his goal scoring ability and movements but his pace will help us to push opponents lines much more deeper.

That’s also, along with stats from last season that see us relying on quick transitions, a reason why I believe in reports about Rasmus Hojlund because, despite still being raw, he offers pace and power. In the meantime we can build a team that can control matches better with a possible option to sign Kane on free next season at the end of the process.

Also, as we will start to dominate and control the game much more, we will spend a lot more time in the opposition's half. So, that is when the technical ability and vision of the winger will surpass the electric pace as one of the main weapons for that role. This is where I see the last chance for Jadon Sancho to finally start to perform at the consistent level. That said, I can see Amad having a role in our squad at the RW position, especially if we start to control games more and push opponents in their own half.

Unrealistic for this summer, but if we fail to bring in a prolific CF starter and choose to play Rashford there, my choice for the LW role would be Kaoru Mitoma.

Ten Hag when asked by The Times on Mason Greenwood future: “He has showed in the past that he is capable of scoring goals”. #MUFC
…but emphasises it’s “not my decision as to whether he returns”.

Erik ten Hag when asked on Harry Kane for Man Utd: “Kane in the list? What we need besides Marcus Rashford is one extra player with scoring abilities…”, told Times. #MUFC

“We need it, whether it’s coming out of our own squad or we have to sign one”.

Recent quotes from ETH also suggest that we shouldn't be surprised if we see MG as a part of our preseason squad - still young, he is one of the most natural finishers we had in years and ETH is smart enough to not let him easily go.

Don't get me wrong, I would love us to sign a new striker and it will be a dream to have big enough budget to do all that business in one window, but if I have to choose between splashing a cash at striker or signing a GK, CM and CB/RB to gain more control and stick with Rashford as our no.9, I think I will choose the latter, as strange as it sounds. Unpopular opinion and less likely, but we still could see bad boy MG playing for our club next season and he is one of the most naturally gifted finishers around.

I know some would point out the age of certain players but IMO neitHer you are old at 29 ( I think that football developed in this particular area ), neither this is a Football Manager to go out full wonderkid mode. I simply choose players based on style I think ETH is trying to build and availability of certain players in this summer market. If we want to bring the best out of the spine of Varane, Martinez, Shaw, Casemiro, Bruno and Eriksen we should meet players who can have immediate impact or we our thread "what do we still need" will go more and more in cycles - signing player who is not proved and try to develop him, you may lose some of players from the spine in meantime.

Also, IMO signing a player in age of 29-30 does not decrease our chances to go and sign another younger "the next big thing" in the next few windows - most people didn't know that f.e. Enzo Fernandez even existed in the football universe a year or two ago.

I'm more than excited seeing us linked with some players mentioned here: Kim Min-Jae, Kovačić, Timber, Onana, Verbruggen, Kane and even read some links with Mazroui. A summer of, f.e., Onana, Timber, Kane, Le Fee and Kovačić with MG and Amad joining the first team would be a dream scenario and would make us a really strong team.

Based on that and last summer deals, I somehow believe our recruitment team is doing a decent job - certainly better than what was the previous practice and I hope that the ownership situation will be resolved soon.
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Well done fantastic analysis.
 
@Lux Thunder

Didn't want to quote a lengthy post, but I've been thinking about the WM trend, almost started a thread on it.

I think a big question is would Varane be comfortable on the right of what is effectively a 3, because it would seem to suit Lisandro centrally and Shaw in the role Ake played beautifully. To me, it makes Caicedo an intriguing signing playing the sort of role Mazrouai did at Ajax and backing up Casemiro.

Rashford----------#9-------------Antony
------Eriksen/Mount----Bruno-----------
---------Casemiro---Caicedo-------
Shaw-Lisandro-Varane-----------

Looks pretty strong and well balanced as long as Varane can play a little wider than he'd probably like at this stage of his career.
 
NoPace said:
@Lux Thunder

Didn't want to quote a lengthy post, but I've been thinking about the WM trend, almost started a thread on it.

I think a big question is would Varane be comfortable on the right of what is effectively a 3, because it would seem to suit Lisandro centrally and Shaw in the role Ake played beautifully. To me, it makes Caicedo an intriguing signing playing the sort of role Mazrouai did at Ajax and backing up Casemiro.

Rashford----------#9-------------Antony
------Eriksen/Mount----Bruno-----------
---------Casemiro---Caicedo-------
Shaw-Lisandro-Varane-----------

Looks pretty strong and well balanced as long as Varane can play a little wider than he'd probably like at this stage of his career.
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Yeah, although Varane is still only 30 and has decent pace it will give us much flexibility and unpredictability if we sign someone like Timber or Caicedo, who both can play multiple roles in that kind of system.

Josip Šutalo is also an interesting option to rotate with Varane and wouldn’t cost much but also, the recent form of Lindelof is encouraging. As for left-footed CB I mentioned Medina from Lens but Colwill will also be a good fit and he will enter his last year of contract with Chelsea next summer.

EDIT: If Arsenal signs Timber, Benjamin Pavard could be a very good shout for the CB/RB hybrid role as he is in his last year of contract with Bayern and could be attainable at ~£30m.

Fts 74 said:
Well done fantastic analysis.
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Thanks mate.
 
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Just thought I would come back to this, knowing that I am in danger of being slaughtered, but may I ask what would we as Man United fans, think of a move for James Ward-Prowse?

Personally, I think this would be a terrfic signing, probably at decent value considering all the other midfielders being linked with us, and moving across Europe. He is consistent, probably at his peak, knows the Premiership, is a very good footballer, has a terrific attitude, carries a genuine, genuine goal-threat, is excellent at set-pieces, and can play either a traditional, or more attacking midfield role.

I think he would relish the challenge, and would compliment and improve our squad. He is better than SMT or Fred, no doubt about that.

Just be interested in any views...
 
First step of a successful summer 23 in my point of view: not becoming a spineless Qatari sportswashing machine.

End of the scenario.
 
I want to see Garnacho starting as much as possible but we just have to have a proper centre forward - for me, nothing is as important. I'm beginning to think "he who can't be talked about" will be back in the squad if we don't mov for a number nine.

That needs to be followed by a goalkeeper. Anything after that is a bit of a luxury while the Glazers are still farting around
 
I’ve downgraded to:

Mount
Onana
Hoijland

With the way our club is being sold and our business so far if we manage three players I’ll be amazed. Top 4 would be the goal again for a further season.
 
Lux Thunder said:
Yeah, although Varane is still only 30 and has decent pace it will give us much flexibility and unpredictability if we sign someone like Timber or Caicedo, who both can play multiple roles in that kind of system.

Josip Šutalo is also an interesting option to rotate with Varane and wouldn’t cost much but also, the recent form of Lindelof is encouraging. As for left-footed CB I mentioned Medina from Lens but Colwill will also be a good fit and he will enter his last year of contract with Chelsea next summer.

EDIT: If Arsenal signs Timber, Benjamin Pavard could be a very good shout for the CB/RB hybrid role as he is in his last year of contract with Bayern and could be attainable at ~£30m.



Thanks mate.
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Sutalo should definitely be on our radar, plays mainly RCB but can play LCB as well as shown in Nations league where he filled in for Gvardiol. Quoted price seem in the 20-22 million range for a 22 year old.
 
glasgow 21 said:
Sutalo should definitely be on our radar, plays mainly RCB but can play LCB as well as shown in Nations league where he filled in for Gvardiol. Quoted price seem in the 20-22 million range for a 22 year old.
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He would be a bargain signing. Unfortunately, there are some strong links with him moving to RB Leipzig once Gvardiol is sold.
 
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