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[Raoul]

So exactly what everyone has been concerned would happen this whole time is now more likely to happen. Perfect

Or maybe it will get others to resign in solidarity as well.

This is from a recent WaPo piece on Israel.

“The snowball has started to roll,” Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University, told The Washington Post before the announcement. “Gantz’s move is not going to directly put an end to this coalition, but the coalition is beginning to collapse in on itself.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/09/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-hostages/

 

[Carolina Red]

Or maybe it will get others to resign in solidarity as well.

This is from a recent WaPo piece on Israel.

“The snowball has started to roll,” Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University, told The Washington Post before the announcement. “Gantz’s move is not going to directly put an end to this coalition, but the coalition is beginning to collapse in on itself.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/09/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-hostages/

I’ll believe it when I see it.

So far, they’ve chosen to go the wrong direction at seemingly every opportunity

 

[2cents]

Is that because he's viewed as too pragmatic at a time when most Israelis want a more hardline approach, or something else ?

An Israeli friend told me Gantz is a follower, not a leader. Basically someone who tries to suss out what he thinks is the popular move and acts accordingly, and as a result he projects indecision and weakness.

 

[ManUtd1999]

An Israeli friend told me Gantz is a follower, not a leader. Basically someone who tries to suss out what he thinks is the popular move and acts accordingly, and as a result he projects indecision and weakness.

This is a major problem. When there is no viable alternative, the old guard remains.

 

[Amir]

Is that because he's viewed as too pragmatic at a time when most Israelis want a more hardline approach, or something else ?

He's weak and naive.

Admittedly, part of the "problem" is that Gantz clearly has Israel's best interest at heart. He puts that above politics and he has boundries - unlike Netanyahu, who puts himself and his politics above everything else and is willing to sell and burn everything in order to stay in power. He has no boundries.

Unfortunately, in today's politics that gives Netanyahu the edge.

His resignation will change nothing. The government will go on because it has no better alternatives. All its pieces are better off together than going alone. Not for Israel's sake, of course, but for their own.

 

[Tibs]

What utter dog shit people supporters of Israel are.

Just when you think you can't see something more fecked up from Gaza, Israel are like 'check this out'

 

[Idxomer]

 

[Super Hans]

But...but...I thought it was just suspected terrorists that Israel locks up without charge?

 

[That_Bloke]

Yeah, I'd say you're pretty accurate. Israel has been moving towards the right in the last couple of decades, and that also means some shift from the more moderate right to the extreme right.

I'm afraid the war is only going to strengthen Ben Gvir and co. And while it's possible the next government will be different and won't inlclude them, it will probably only be temporary. They will return - or their successors, worse then them.

Having said that, I don't see Ben Gvir and his likes having the power to make such decisions over Gaza, for instance, any time soon. The only reason they have so much power over Netanyahu is his legal trouble and desperation to avoid jail. So his departure can cause a major change that will weaken the extreme right and as it will be easier to create different, more moderate, coalitions and governments involving rational parties who are not willing to have anything to do with the Likud as long as Netanyahu is there.

I also disagree with the claim that Netanyahu and his cabinet saw the war as an opportunity to gain lands in Gaza. If what you suspect does happen, I believe it will be due to security reasons. Whether over time it will become more than that - meaning, the return of Israeli settlements there - will depend on the political situation and the power of the far right and settlers.

The Likud charter? I doubt Netanyahu remembers what he says or cares abou it.

Agree on both accounts.

With Gantz quitting, I honestly can see Ben Gvir being part of the War Cabinet. Would it have any consequence on what's happening in the West Bank?

That's always been the reason number one invoked whenever Israel either ceized or occupied land. The Golan Heights, the West Bank, the blockade of Gaza... That's only my personal opinion but if I look back at the last 75 years, any land grabbed by Israel has never been given back, aside from the Sinai Peninsula, which to be fair doesn't belong to Greater Israel and still stayed demilitarized to this day.

The settlers aren't going anywhere, their numbers can only grow with time and so will the far-right. Worse, they've been massively armed by Ben Gvir after 10/7. I honestly think that any serious attempt at moving them out of the illegal settlements in the West Bank would end in a Israeli civil war. Remember the troubles when Sharon moved the settlers out of Gaza back in 2005, and there was only 5,000 of them. Compare that to the ca. 700,000 currently present in the West Bank and East-Jerusalem.

As much as I highly respect and value you and your opinions, I think that Israel has taken an extremely dangerous path and is frankly sleep-walking into a disaster. Either the world acts Israel's takeover of the whole occupied territories at some point in the not-so-distant future and this live in infamy, or it stops it. But that would mean a fundamental redefinition and the end of the State of Israel as we know it.

I think that he's very aware of it. He's been politicized from a very young age and you know how hardcore his father was. The death of his brother during the Entebbe raid also certainly played a major role in building his views about Israel and Palestine. He might be a self-serving crook with an uncanny survival instinct but it doesn't mean that he's devoid of any political conviction.

I'm also sincerely happy that four hostages could be freed. I just wish that it would've come at a lesser cost for the Gazan population.

 

[That_Bloke]

I've no idea regarding the percentages you mentioned one way or another. never looked into those statistics.
Anyhow, they're not niche voters. maybe they were 20 years ago.

I believe you are correct in your basic assumption.

In total, over 450,000 Israeli settlers reside in the West Bank, excluding East Jerusalem, with an additional 220,000 Israeli settlers residing in East Jerusalem. Additionally, over 25,000 Israeli settlers live in Syria's Golan Heights. That's 695,000 settlers in total as of January 2023. Given that Israel's population is 9,900,000 inhabitants, around 7% (and counting) of the Israelis are illegal settlers.

There were 16% of Israeli settlers as IDF commanders in 2014 according to the Times of Israel. I couldn't find any more actual data but I've watched a very recent interview (2024) from Sylvain Cypel, a jewish-french journalist, author of the book "The State of Israel vs. the Jews" who spoke of 30% of IDF commanders being settlers as of 2024. Anyone having more accurate information can correct me.

Those in the far right will fo farther to the right if it's even possible,
Those in the center of the map will lean more and more to the right (wishing for Bibi to feck off but wanting the status quo minus "the war" to prevail),
And then you have Leftists who either turned even more left (but they are too few to even get noticed) and those who changed their colors due to Oct. 7th.

As things stand and with the current politicians at play, there can be no real alternative even if Bibi, Ben Gvir and Smotrich died tommorow (one can hope).

Parties from the center of the map will have to for a coalition with "light-right" parties such as they exist,
Ultra-Orthodox parties, not-too-Palestinian-supporting Arab parties such as they exist,
in order to form a coalition of 61 MPs.

It lasted about a year the last time such a government was in power.
It won't manage to form a coalition in 2024, not a chance.

So far as I can see, the main thing that's taking place right now for people who are not the right-extremists and not die-hard leftist,
or in other words- the majority of the voting population-

That's what I gathered. Thanks for confirming it.

People are getting more and more fed up with Bibi, while also distancing themselves further from the Idea of the Palestinian population ever getting anything [and they were already against the idea in the first place].

Most people around here just wish that the IDF was able to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah, and for their lives to get back to Oct. 6th, and that's it.
If the Palestinians can teleport themselves to Antartica, even better (bieng gentle here. many would like them just dead].

If my family and some good friends were open to the idea and detetrmined to do it with all the difficulties it entails,
I would have left Israel already.

Non mainstream media reported this trend, good to hear it straight from the horse's mouth, so to speak.

It was never a sane place to grow up in, and they way things are right now,
it's impossible.
I won't have kids in a place where the army that's meant to protect me a) isn't able to do that and b) commiting crimes to an extent I didn't want to believe was possible. I won't havemy kid do that.

/ rant.

I completely understand your point of view. If I was confronted to the same choice, I doubt that I would've thought or acted any different.

It still breaks my heart to hear that, because I firmly believe that there's enough room for both peoples to live there. It truly could become so much more than what we're currently seeing. I'm a partisan of a two state solution but gradually came to the conclusion that a one state solution might be the only one that has any viable future. In which form, God only knows, for those who believe in it.

I'm currently working towards being part of the humanitarian organizations that will rebuild Gaza. I'm an architect and guess that people like me will be needed, provided that UNRWA isn't classified as a terrorist organization and booted out of Gaza. I've always dreamt of visiting this very special region of the world. If I can manage that, maybe we'll meet and share a beer together.

 

[Amir]

With Gantz quitting, I honestly can see Ben Gvir being part of the War Cabinet. Would it have any consequence on what's happening in the West Bank?

Ben Gvir's pushing to be on the War Cabinet. The question is whether he'll threaten to quit is he isn't on it. If he does, then Netanyahu will probably fold.

But the assumption is that the War Cabinet will be dismantled and that Netanyahu will do what he did in the past - makes decisions with a small, unofficial, cabinet and then bring it to the approval of the official one.

As for the West Bank, obviously that's a high priority for Ben Gvir and Smotrich, so I assume anything that gives them more power will also do more damange.

The settlers aren't going anywhere, their numbers can only grow with time and so will the far-right. Worse, they've been massively armed by Ben Gvir after 10/7. I honestly think that any serious attempt at moving them out of the illegal settlements in the West Bank would end in a Israeli civil war.

I suspect that's true. We've already seen how the settlers use their new power against the Palestenians and at times even - to a far lesser extent, of course - against the IDF. Unless something drastic changes within Israel, including the rise of a very brave leader, the settlers will never be going anywhere.

As much as I highly respect and value you and your opinions, I think that Israel has taken an extremely dangerous path and is frankly sleep-walking into a disaster. Either the world acts their take-over of the whole occupied territories at some point in the not-so-distant future and this live in infamy, or it stops it. But that would mean a fundamental redefinition and the end of the State of Israel as we know it.

I don't disagree. I don't forsee anything positive in Israel's future - internally or externally. At least not positive in my eyes. Some people here - the religious type, mostly - don't care how the world sees Israel, don't care about people dying, about damage to the economy. They want a different Israel - ultra reliigious, secluded. So they rather enjoy what's happening nowadays.

I think that he's very aware of it. He's been politicized from a very young age and you know how hardcore his father was. The death of his brother during the Entebbe raid also certainly played a major role in building his views about Israel and Palestine. He might be a self-serving crook with an uncanny survival instinct but it doesn't mean that he's devoid of any political conviction.

Netanyahu is probably aware, but he's got too many interest pulling him in different ways. His trial being one of them, as is his nutty family (you should have seen how the official PM social media accounts promoted and paraded his wife's calls to the families of the hostages released). His decisions are about self interest rather than national interest. It has been like that for a while in different issues. It's just more evident now for people around the world because it's happening even in a time of war.

I'm also sincerely happy that four hostages could be freed. I just wish that it would've come at a lesser cost for the Gazan population.

If you told that to someone in Israel, you'd probably be laughed at. At best.

 

[Idxomer]

 

[Ish]

Beyond laughable, while people are starving and dying.

 

[Kaos]

If it wasn't obvious before, its pretty clear now as to what the intention behind this pier is. If it were genuinely a matter of fast-tracking much needed aid to the famine-struck Palestinians, then the US could and would have simply twisted Israel's arm to let those aid trucks through without them being targeted by settler terrorists.

Perhaps the US could 'repurpose' its sizeable number of military bases in the region into 'aid stations' for the optics.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

In total, over 450,000 Israeli settlers reside in the West Bank, excluding East Jerusalem, with an additional 220,000 Israeli settlers residing in East Jerusalem. Additionally, over 25,000 Israeli settlers live in Syria's Golan Heights. That's 695,000 settlers in total as of January 2023. Given that Israel's population is 9,900,000 inhabitants, around 7% (and counting) of the Israelis who are illegal settlers.

There were 16% of Israeli settlers as IDF commanders in 2014 according to the Times of Israel. I couldn't find any more actual data but I've seen a very recent interview (2024) from Sylvain Cypel, a jewish-french journalist, author of the book "The State of Israel vs. the Jews" who spoke of 30% of IDF commanders being settlers as of 2024. Anyone having more accurate information can correct me.


That's what I gathered. Thanks for confirming it.


Non mainstream media reported this trend, good to hear it straight from the horse's mouth, so to speak.


I completely understand and support your point of view. It still breaks my heart to hear that, because I firmly believe that there's enough room for both peoples to live there. It truly could become so much more than what we're currently seeing. I'm a partisan of a two state solution but gradually came to the conclusion that a one state solution may be the only one that has any viable future. In which form, God only knows, for those who believe in it.

I'm currently working towards being part of the humanitarian organizations that will rebuild Gaza. I'm an architect and guess that people like me will be needed, provided that UNRWA isn't classified as a terrorist organization and booted out of Gaza. I've always dreamt of visiting this very special region of the world. If I can manage it, maybe we'll meet and share a beer together.

thanks for the numbers. it's very very hard to digest that someone (many around the world) view the Golan heights as "settlements", it's almost funny to me, but I can see why on paper it is so.

I'm so used to it being a part of Israel, have lived there briefly and have many friends over there that still do.
It's very very different from the WB in the sense that there's no Syrian population left over there from 50 years ago to claim the land, so there are 0 altercations.

and, the fact that "they started it" so far as I've been taught in history lesson, I'm more at piece with the fact that some of their land have been taken away from them. but well, I guess on another day I won't even agree with the last sentence.

I'm just so so tired of reading about yet another thing that Israel has done wrong throughout the years.
Sometimes you just want to roll one and forget about everything.

But then there's another video, another alarm (I oftetn have to travel for work to areas that are in the range of Hezbollah), another what so fecking ever....

I really, really admire your will to go to Gaza and help the locals, but seriously, you can die very very easily.
would you pay with your life to take part in something that is just, on a piece of land far from home (you're probably European? maybe not)?

Would love to have a beer in theory. But I would hardly want you to risk your life this way.

 

[That_Bloke]

thanks for the numbers. it's very very hard to digest that someone (many around the world) view the Golan heights as "settlements", it's almost funny to me, but I can see why on paper it is so.

I'm so used to it being a part of Israel, have lived there briefly and have many friends over there that still do.
It's very very different from the WB in the sense that there's no Syrian population left over there from 50 years ago to claim the land, so there are 0 altercations.

and, the fact that "they started it" so far as I've been taught in history lesson, I'm more at piece with the fact that some of their land have been taken away from them. but well, I guess on another day I won't even agree with the last sentence.

That's quite enlightening for me, I've never thought of it that way.

I'm just so so tired of reading about yet another thing that Israel has done wrong throughout the years.
Sometimes you just want to roll one and forget about everything.

But then there's another video, another alarm (I oftetn have to travel for work to areas that are in the range of Hezbollah), another what so fecking ever....

I wholeheartedly understand you but that's not your fault. It's incredibly difficult to escape such a system and there's nothing wrong with just wishing to live a normal life.

I really, really admire your will to go to Gaza and help the locals, but seriously, you can die very very easily.
would you pay with your life to take part in something that is just, on a piece of land far from home (you're probably European? maybe not)?

Would love to have a beer in theory. But I would hardly want you to risk your life this way.

Believe it or not, I'm quite familiar with war and what it entails.

Gaza will need people willing to put in a shift to be rebuilt. I hopefully will meet with more like-minded Israelis such as yourself. That small piece of land is going to be one of most important in the future. I have a massive amount of work before me and nothing's guaranteed. Not before a year from what I've been told, but given the amount of damage one year is nothing and I think it's absolutely worth a try.

I'm under no illusion but at the end of the day, someone has to do it. If I ever make it to Gaza, I'll let you know. The first round's on me.

 

[Idxomer]

 

[berbatrick]

This is a very surprising poll given the success with the 4 hostages - maybe the polling was done before the operation?

 

[VorZakone]

UN Security Council adopts US draft resolution supporting Gaza cease-fire deal

The United Nations Security Council on Monday afternoon adopted a U.S. draft resolution urging Hamas to accept the latest cease-fire and hostage release deal.

Fourteen members of the council voted in favor of the measure and only one -- Russia -- elected to abstain.

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...cease-fire-resolution-gaza/story?id=110989116

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Giggsyking]

Isn't it telling? Far right europeans and Israel in the same front?

 

[langster]

Israel stepping up the attacks against Hezbollah?!

 

[Super Hans]

thanks for the numbers. it's very very hard to digest that someone (many around the world) view the Golan heights as "settlements", it's almost funny to me, but I can see why on paper it is so.

I'm so used to it being a part of Israel, have lived there briefly and have many friends over there that still do.
It's very very different from the WB in the sense that there's no Syrian population left over there from 50 years ago to claim the land, so there are 0 altercations.

and, the fact that "they started it" so far as I've been taught in history lesson, I'm more at piece with the fact that some of their land have been taken away from them. but well, I guess on another day I won't even agree with the last sentence.

I'm just so so tired of reading about yet another thing that Israel has done wrong throughout the years.
Sometimes you just want to roll one and forget about everything.

But then there's another video, another alarm (I oftetn have to travel for work to areas that are in the range of Hezbollah), another what so fecking ever....

I really, really admire your will to go to Gaza and help the locals, but seriously, you can die very very easily.
would you pay with your life to take part in something that is just, on a piece of land far from home (you're probably European? maybe not)?

Would love to have a beer in theory. But I would hardly want you to risk your life this way.

Were you and your friends living in the Golan aware that it's literally a war crime? Or is it just ignorance is bliss?

 

[Amir]

Isn't it telling? Far right europeans and Israel in the same front?

Israel's Far Right has spent the last few years building connections and contacts with far right parties in Europe, including ones with Nazi past. That's fine as far as they are concerned.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

Israel stepping up the attacks against Hezbollah?!

well, Hezbollah has been steadily stepping up its attacks on Israel.
I don't know what the chicken and what the egg is here.

 

[berbatrick]

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

Were you and your friends living in the Golan aware that it's literally a war crime? Or is it just ignorance is bliss?

no, I don't think about it that way. so yes, ignorance is bliss for that matter.
what would you say to pretty much all the Americans in the USA? should they feck off to Europe?

 

[africanspur]

no, I don't think about it that way. so yes, ignorance is bliss for that matter.
what would you say to pretty much all the Americans in the USA? should they feck off to Europe?

To be honest, my honest feeling is that yeah, they kind of should. The world has been shaped by white Europeans going to 3 different continents, almost wiping out the indigenous populations and replacing them and its awful. But fine, theyve been there for hundreds of years now and there's no going back.

If they'd done it in the 1970s, I would 100% tell them to feck off.

 

[Idxomer]

So much nonsense around this ceasefire deal and it's incredible to witness Biden and his cronies participate to this degree in this farce.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

To be honest, my honest feeling is that yeah, they kind of should. The world has been shaped by white Europeans going to 3 different continents, almost wiping out the indigenous populations and replacing them and its awful. But fine, theyve been there for hundreds of years now and there's no going back.

If they'd done it in the 1970s, I would 100% tell them to feck off.

so if the situation in the Golan heights satys the same for the next 100 years, you'd expect your great grandson to not say a word about it, because it's been going for 150 years? I find it strange.


it's very unrealistic IMO to expect someone who was born in Israel in 1990 (me) and has lived in the Golan for a brief period in 2018, to feel uneasy about it.

but for each their own.

 

[africanspur]

so if the situation in the Golan heights satys the same for the next 100 years, you'd expect your great grandson to not say a word about it, because it's been going for 150 years? I find it strange.


it's very unrealistic IMO to expect someone who was born in Israel in 1990 (me) and has lived in the Golan for a brief period in 2018, to feel uneasy about it.

but for each their own.

What do you mean? I literally said that I find the concept of the USA or Australia deeply unfair in the first place. There's nothing I can do about it of course but yeah I think they're awful countries with awful backdrops.

Out of interest, considering your own positions on the Palestinians and whats going on in the West Bank, why do you seem to be against the settlements in the West Bank but not in the Golan?

Why do you agree with the international community about the settlements in the WB being wrong but don't agree with them about the settlements in the Golan being wrong?

 

[Idxomer]

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

What do you mean? I literally said that I find the concept of the USA or Australia deeply unfair in the first place. There's nothing I can do about it of course but yeah I think they're awful countries with awful backdrops.

Out of interest, considering your own positions on the Palestinians and whats going on in the West Bank, why do you seem to be against the settlements in the West Bank but not in the Golan?

Why do you agree with the international community about the settlements in the WB being wrong but don't agree with them about the settlements in the Golan being wrong?

We have different views in the sense that I think, for a land that belonged to Syria some 50 years ago and has since belonged to Israel, that "there's no going back". I don't think there's a chance that it ever gets returned, hence why I have sense of "no going back".

it is the same on paper, yes.

I think that the WB and the Gaza strip can be freed of Israeli occupation a/o influence one day, and the fact that people are killed and abused daily over there bothers me immensly.

There are no Syrians left in the Golan for a couple of decades now.

I don't know a single Israeli, not even the ones who are the most left-wing-minded who (Jews) who vote for Arab parties in the Israeli Knesset,
Who go and give shit to soldiers in the West Bank,
I don't know any who won't go to the Golan Heights because it was occupied 50 years ago.

It feels very different even thogh it's the same story on paper.

If you were an Israeli you probably would have felt the same, but this we will never know.

Oh and I was interested in asking you- what does it mean to you that the USA or Australia are shitty countries? would you not go there, for example?

 

[africanspur]

We have different views in the sense that I think, for a land that belonged to Syria some 50 years ago and has since belonged to Israel, that "there's no going back". I don't think there's a chance that it ever gets returned, hence why I have sense of "no going back".

it is the same on paper, yes.

I think that the WB and the Gaza strip can be freed of Israeli occupation a/o influence one day, and the fact that people are killed and abused daily over there bothers me immensly.

There are no Syrians left in the Golan for a couple of decades now.

I don't know a single Israeli, not even the ones who are the most left-wing-minded who (Jews) who vote for Arab parties in the Israeli Knesset,
Who go and give shit to soldiers in the West Bank,
I don't know any who won't go to the Golan Heights because it was occupied 50 years ago.

It feels very different even thogh it's the same story on paper.

If you were an Israeli you probably would have felt the same, but this we will never know.

Oh and I was interested in asking you- what does it mean to you that the USA or Australia are shitty countries? would you not go there, for example?

So if Israel did manage to cleanse Gaza and the West Bank of Palestinians and then fully settled those places, in 50 years, you'd feel less bad and shrug your shoulders and think ah well, what can you really do? Perhaps Bibi needs to push on then and get moving so our grandkids can say well there's no realistic chance of Palestinians returning there, what do you think of Americans?

I'm pretty sure there are about 20k Syrians left in the Golan, which are about the same number as the number of Israelis?

With respect, I'm not that bothered by what the majority of Israelis think. If they think its OK, thats up to them, but I don't see it any different to whats happening in the West Bank, even if they want to feel otherwise.

I'd like to think I wouldn't have but if I was surrounded by non-stop propaganda, who knows, perhaps I would have.

It means that I think they're shitty countries and the White Europeans have committed genocides globally and shaped the world in their image across 4 different continents. No I would still visit, just as I have actually visited Israel (alongside a trip to the West Bank). So probably not the gotcha you were expecting.

But you asked me what I think about America, likely expecting a shrug but no, I still think the founding of the country was a travesty (for which nothing can be done now) but if the country was founded in the 70s in that way, I'd 100% be calling out people who thought that was OK.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

i didn't inted to "get you", and while I'd like to answer your posts, I don't feel comfortable with the hostility you seem to hve developed towards me, my thoughts, whatever.

there is already an abundance of that in this thread.

No I would not shrug my shoulders if the same happened in 50 years in the WB or Gaza, because I live in the present when thes occurences happen.
This, for me, is the difference.

20k Syrians still live in the Golan, do you mean the residents of of Majdal Shamms, Masaad'e, Buqa'ta and Ein-Qinye (tried my best to spell accurately, probably failed)?

 

[africanspur]

i didn't inted to "get you", and while I'd like to answer your posts, I don't feel comfortable with the hostility you seem to hve developed towards me, my thoughts, whatever.

there is already an abundance of that in this thread.

No I would not shrug my shoulders if the same happened in 50 years in the WB or Gaza, because I live in the present when thes occurences happen.
This, for me, is the difference.

20k Syrians still live in the Golan, do you mean the residents of of Majdal Shamms, Masaad'e, Buqa'ta and Ein-Qinye (tried my best to spell accurately, probably failed)?

I don't think I've shown you hostility or been rude in any way.

I have my views on it, which I've made clear and which I don't think you will change to be honest. I think the international community bar Israel and Trump agrees. You can disagree, thats fine, I don't think its going to create any meaningful differences for the situation. I don't think the Golan is going back to Syria and for what its worth, I think the situation for the Palestinians in the WB will only continue to get worse. That doesn't mean I can't bristle at the injustice of the situation in both cases, just as I can bristle at Sudan, the Chagos Islands, Myanmar etc etc, even though I don't forsee those situations improving either.

I don't know the names of the places they live. I just know some Druze live there and some of them have Israeli citizenship and I believe all can access Israeli services. And yes I know they have better lives than their Syrian counterparts.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

not trying to change your views, just sharing mine. I'm actually trying to show more of my emotions as someone who's from here.
since I don't think my opinions are always that interesting or even well informed.

I wasn't gonna write anything about the Druze in the Golan having better or worse lives than their counterparts in Syria.

I don't see the point of trying to read my mind or implying that I necessarily think this or that.

Let's leave it at that

 

[langster]

well, Hezbollah has been steadily stepping up its attacks on Israel.
I don't know what the chicken and what the egg is here.

That's a fair point tbh. Israel definitely has a right to defend itself, it's just as we have seen in Gaza, there's no restraint shown. No tit for tat, it's all out retribution. I'm not sure what Hezbollah are up to stepping up attacks to be honest. They have seen how this Israeli government will respond and there is feck all to gain from irritating Israel further. Unless they are just looking to provoke an all out war in the region or try to gain international support and sympathy. It just doesn't make sense to me at all.

 

[ScholesyTheWise]

That's a fair point tbh. Israel definitely has a right to defend itself, it's just as we have seen in Gaza, there's no restraint shown. No tit for tat, it's all out retribution. I'm not sure what Hezbollah are up to stepping up attacks to be honest. They have seen how this Israeli government will respond and there is feck all to gain from irritating Israel further. Unless they are just looking to provoke an all out war in the region or try to gain international support and sympathy. It just doesn't make sense to me at all.

Hmm. your guess is as good as mine.
There's obviously an aspect of attacking Israel for what's happening in Gaza, as some sort of solidarity or what have you.

But also, I believe that what the countries around Israel are witnessing since October is twofold:

1. The IDF is not as potent as it was perceived to be [my own opinion- very very lethal air force, not some much in the ground force front]
2. Hezbollah sees- and contrary to what this thread seems to suggest- that the world doesn't let Israel do everything it wishes to do. I'm saying this becaause, if the Israeli governemnt had their way, 100k would have been dead by now in Gaza (if not triple that number).

I suspect that even if Hezbollah starts firing rockets at Tel Aviv for example - thus declaring that a full scale war has begun - the moment Israel retalites with its air force and Beirut is under these crazy bombardements, the international community will again demand that Israel stops and will label it as another genocide [and the US will veto the call and Israel won't stop completely but will hold some of its firing capabilities].

I think that both Sinwar and Nasrallah see how isolated Israel has become internationally. flattening Beirut will make that even worse.
Plus, the fact that some 80k (I think that's the number) of Israelis have left the northern part of Israel due to Hezbollah firing rockets and drones-

This has a huge economical effect. The Israeli economy will be in the gutter come 2025 or so. What do Hezbollah care to continue firing, witth a couple of hundreds of its soldiers dying along the way?

it's a decent price to pay.

Should an all out war break, they will be pressurised by the people of Lebanon to bring the war to an end.
Until then, they are schooling Israel as far as I'm concerend.

Both Hamas and Hezbollah realize that Israel can't seriously damage their structure for more than a couple of months, because you can't fight them with zero casualties to the civic population. killing or capturing most of Hezbollah's fighters is not a realistic scenario.
the IDF is spent from Gaza.

Israel only has its air force to rely on, and while it can be devastating and lead to huge losses of lives,
it's not something that changes the equasion.

Nasrallah should be happy up to now.

 

[berbatrick]