Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Could this be used as evidence in an international human rights court? Not that Dima necessarily makes it that far.
Just wow! Jfc, that's a scary read.
My only reply to that "tweet" was me telling the dwarf to eat shit.
It was a dumb tweet to send given that a vast majority of twitter are against the invasion, and unlike in Russia, he can't control the narrative on social media.
Just a reminder that we have quite a few people including the likes of Macron who are constantly pushing for negotiations. If anyone still needed further proof that there is absolutely nothing to negotiate about, here we go. They don’t even hide their genocidal ambitions. Military win is the only way for Ukraine and it was obvious since day 1.
Middle Eastern Twitter investors are enjoying the current returns on their gas and oil I guess?
Why people leave Russia and don’t come here?
The western armor collection grows.
Ukraine also reported about 470 liquidated personnel and 0 destroyed tanks in their daily report. That indicates, that Russia stopped its offensive moves and prepares for Ukraine's offensive. In any case, stopping Russia's winter offensive and not losing any key positions is another big win for Ukraine.
The coming offensive will determine how long the war will continue. If it fails, Putin will continue his war of attrition. If it succeeds, Putin will be under big pressure to negotiate.
Ukraine also reported about 470 liquidated personnel and 0 destroyed tanks in their daily report. That indicates, that Russia stopped its offensive moves and prepares for Ukraine's offensive. In any case, stopping Russia's winter offensive and not losing any key positions is another big win for Ukraine.
The coming offensive will determine how long the war will continue. If it fails, Putin will continue his war of attrition. If it succeeds, Putin will be under big pressure to negotiate.
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Do we know what the state of the battlefields are in terms of terrain? That we don't see any destroyed tanks could also be an indication that they can't get anywhere due to being bogged down in mud and what have you, so Russia can only send in the infantry.
Sure, the thaw kills every heavy armor movement right now, but 470 liquidated personnel is also an indicator. Ukraine reported daily around 1000 Russian KIA during their winter offensive.
Has this been posted already? Seems like the US has much lower killed estimations than many here seem to assume, for both sides. If this whole thing is real, which seems to be a bit up in the air.
Will there ever be an end to this shitshow and what is it about anyway?
Hard to tell. One side wants to conquer a sovereign nation and erase it from existence and another side and its allies want a total victory by removing the enemy and ensuring they never have to deal with them again.
Both are lofty goals.
Only the former is the case. If Putin wanted to end the war by leaving Ukrainian land, he could do it today and the Ukrainians would stop fighting.
Well, Putin will have to be convinced that it is in his best interest to end the war and leave Ukrainian land. By how much Russian technology and army sucks (according to Twitter), it is amazing they are still in it.
This war will end when NATO decides it:
- Boots on the ground, all in. Russia loses.
- Pull out the support. Ukraine loses.
Risk of doing the first thing: nuclear war and many (maybe all of us dead).
Risk of doing the second thing: Russians getting stronger with gaining massive area of new resources and getting rich of supplying Europe and the World with it. Eventually Russians would be top dog in the World and that World might look very different from the one we live in right now.
Yeah, dire situation.
Well that’s a false dilemma if I’ve ever seen one
I think he knows what a massive mistake he’s made by invading. Prior to the invasion, he could’ve avoided conflict and avoided all the sanctions and impact on his economy. Now he’s stuck in a place where he feels he can’t pull back because he would become vulnerable to domestic ultranationalists who may try to move on him, while he’s still not able to actually ever win in Ukraine.
I hope all of this is a misdirection campaign.
Pretty sure he doesn't see the invasion itself as a mistake, but rather the HOW. He will never accept a western democratic system in the former soviet states bordering russia, because this system is a direct threat to his power. So in his eyes, the invasion was necessary.
But he underestimated Ukraine's will to fight and our (western world) will to support Ukraine. He tested both in 2014 and nothing indicated that it would be different in 2022. In hindsight, he would either have waited a few more years to strenghten and modernize his military (especially the drone warfare), or simply called it a war from the start, mobilized 1-2 million men instead of roughly 250.000 and just overrun any position of Ukraine's forces in the early days, not caring about casualties at all. With this tactic, he would have lost less men than today's figure and would have taken all the big cities in eastern Ukraine including Kiev probably. The hesitant "special operation" approach was the key mistake here in my opinion from his point of view, because nobody's buying it anyways 1 year after the invasion.
I think the numbers in that image are not manipulated, manipulated numbers have been figuring in Russian telegram channels
To me those numbers make sense if we assume that "casualties" or "eliminated personnel" numbers (~200k, was a bit less at the time the leaked documents were supposedly created) provided by Ukraine and UK/US intel would include both deaths and injuries forcing someone out of combat at least for some time. Numbers would match quite nicely for that 1:3 death to wounded ratio that has been mentioned before.
For the leak itself, I am not sure how much damage does it actually do. It doesn't seem to have anything we either didn't already know, or didn't have a good idea about from other sources. I don't see anything that Russian spies wouldn't have known before. They have their own extensive spying network after all. Stuff like "US spying on their allies" has already been known forever.
Russians will be top dogs in the world only in minds of deluded Serbian people.
Even with a fully conquered Ukraine, they would be nowhere near China, let alone the US.
Don't see any possible scenario in which Russia is ever 'top dog.'
Me too, could be possible that the leaked documents were meant to be leaked.
A modern Operation Mincemeat?
How would winning in Ukraine make Russia 'top dog in the world'?
And why shouldn't Ukraine win if Western support continues?
Neither of those things are realistic possibilities.
Russia winning would be unprecedented in modern history. Consequences of that will be significant.
Ukraine winning with western support only is possible I guess, but unlikely. At this point a compromise will have to be made and neither side will like it.
What is a realistic possibility ?
What would be the consequences? More unreplenishable resources will hardly make a country a global power again.
And the West can in principal continue the current level of support for far longer than Russia can continue the war at the current costs.
I think there are still quite a few twists and turns left. China is a massive wildcard that is still to play it's hand. If they decide to provide a military support for Russia, I am not so sure how would that "the West can in principal continue the current level of support for far longer than Russia can continue the war at the current costs" hold. As of now it looks like they are very comfortable playing a spectator role but if the time comes and they have to choose side (especially if the situation with Taiwan keeps escalating), I think it would be a bit naive to expect them to choose ours.
The consequences would be that Europe would go back to being dependent on Russian resources. Ukraine was supposed to alleviate, perhaps even fully replace, some of the energy exported to Europe.
This war is fought by people and people are a finate resource. Weapons are for sure inflicting heavy damage on the Russians, however so far I'm not convinced it will be enough for Ukraine to win. By win I mean restoring all territories occupied by Russians.
Thought about that earlier today as a comparison.
Yes, China getting involved in the manner you describe would be a gamechanger. But there are lots of ifs in the scenario you assumed. China would have to go all in for that to happen and currently, they are hesitating to provide even the most basic lethal support because even that would lead to diplomatic outrage.
Why would Europe be dependent on Russian resources again? Europe has made it through the most critical phase already and gas prices aren't that high anymore. Germany even sits on more LNG than it needs. Russia has lost Europe as a major trading partner for good.
Your perspective on the war might be correct in the short term but long term, how is Russia supposed to keep this up? Even if Ukraine is losing as many soldiers as Russia, an attacking force always needs more of them. And it will become increasingly hard to replenish ammunition, weapons, food, etc. for the invading forces given the toll the war and the sanctions are having on the Russian economy. Russia has been saving money for almost a decade in anticipation of this and they sat on unbelievable stocks of Soviet weapons but still struggled with the logistics. Currently they're burning through these savings and stocks, what will they do once they've run dry?