Yeah, you just never know. I read a book recently called On Intelligence, it covers the subject from Greek Roman times all the way to modern day espionage. The stuff that goes down behind the scenes is mind blowing, bluff and counter bluff. Makes me question everything.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Nothing is for good in this World. People and nations have very short memories. One day you are an enemy and another day you are an ally. I don't think it should be that way, but it is.
Ukraine did misdirection prior to the last offensive, so it would track.
Depends who you ask but I think it's safe to say NATO countries won't be declaring war on Russia and they're too far down the road to withdraw support to Ukraine.
I don't think you can judge anything on the shape of the wider war based on the winter freeze other than Russia have shown an inability to meet even their very limited winter aims of taking Bakhmut and further pressuring the civilian population.
Both sides have been consolidating, holding and preparing. The situation has been static and we'll soon see how well Russia and Ukraine have spent their time preparing for the next - and hopefully final - phase of this war. We'll see how well Ukraine is able to combine and utilise all this new NATO capability and we'll see how well Russia has managed to bed in. But my money is on Ukraine - at the end of the day Russia looking like sitting ducks, with low morale, shit hardware and rubbish troops. Might take time though and the sort of combined ops that will be needed to break Russian lines, will be challenging (according to the experts).
You are deluded beyond belief, even more than the typical Serbo-rashist.
Thank you for the feedback.
It would take decades until the people in the democratic countries would accept that, especially after (!) a Russian victory in Ukraine. The Russian economy will be in shambles at that point in time. Hell, it is even questionable if they are able to capitalize on their own resources in the future since they rely on imported goods to do so.
Russia has fecked itself with this war. It was economic and diplomatic suicide. You cannot become a global powe without a strong economy and diplomatic goodwill/leverage.
A good chance Ukraine wins this imo. They can by many accounts already claim victory in that they blocked Putin from taking over the entire country a year ago. The fact that this is more or less becoming a frozen conflict at a time when the Ukrainians are getting increasingly sophisticated arms and training from NATO, suggests they could very well launch a counterattack to reclaim Russian occupied areas in the south.
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It won't be the final offensive, of that I think we can be pretty sure. I do think they will make some gains again though in the next few months. For it to be the final offensive I think the Russians would have to collapse and that won't be any time soon.
What would be the purpose of leaking this stuff to reddit or what have you rather than clandestinely handing it off to Russians without anyone else being any the wiser? Doesn't feel like the actions of a mole.
Feels strange.
Time will tell but by the end of this summer we shall know a clear picture of the outcome.
Personally, i think Russia is completely screwed when the spring counter offensive begins, and i think they know it to.
It will be much like the autumn offensive, but hopefully even worse(for Russia).
Agreed. They're already quite inept and lacking in high skilled troops and weapons, so a proper Ukrainian counteroffensive with NATO quality weapons will be hard to repel.
Well, you know that NATO has not entered the fight yet, right? NATO can use its air force to help Ukraine, if needed. Like NATO used its airforce to help stop the genocide caused by the Serbs in the 1990s. If Russia wins, Ukraine will face genocide, too. We cannot allow another genocide in Europe.
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Russia can't win anymore. Their only chance was the "take Kiev in 3 days" plan. That failed miserably and now the question remains how long can Russia hold out in Ukraine. Ukraine will never stop fighting until the russian occupying forces leave their sovereign territory. Similar to the Taliban in Afghanistan. No matter how long it takes. One year, 3 years, 20 years. At some point, it'll become too expensive to occupy a warzone. Russia and USA faced that problem in Afghanistan. But on the other side if you fight for your homeland, you have no timelimit, you are patient.
Russia tried to destroy Ukranian morale with their missiles and energy terror, but that also failed and even strengthened their resolve. There is nothing Russia can do anymore except from go nuclear, which they won't do, because then Nato would immediately create a no fly zone in Ukraine.
So the only question is, how long the war will continue and how many people have to die until Putin acknowledges that he can't control Ukraine and leave them as they did in Afghanistan back in the days.
Russia tried to destroy Ukranian morale with their missiles and energy terror, but that also failed and even strengthened their resolve. There is nothing Russia can do anymore except from go nuclear, which they won't do, because then Nato would immediately create a no fly zone in Ukraine.
So the only question is, how long the war will continue and how many people have to die until Putin acknowledges that he can't control Ukraine and leave them as they did in Afghanistan back in the days.
Personally I think it’s a deliberate leak because there isn’t going to be a spring offensive. If people then in any way criticise UA for this lack of offensive, the US says ‘sorry our bad, leak came from our side’ and there’s not really anything more can be said. Meanwhile UA gets more precious time and more training.
What was Russia's latest succesful occupation in this war? I think it was Severodonetsk-Lysychansk in June/July. If Bahkmut holds, the RA will get to a year long without any significant advance. And it's not like they're just defending their gains, since they have lost territories in Kherson, Donetsk and Lugansk in the process.
I thought Russians are already commiting a genocide? More Ukrainians already have died than in entire Yugo conflict that lasted 4 years.
I'm waiting for NATO to enter the fight. Surprised it is taking good guys this long to react.
Problem is Putin himself will never stop, as he doesn't view Ukraine as a real country, nor does he view ukranians as real people either.
He might not be insane, but that public "conversation" he had with his chief spy over a year ago doesn't strike me as a guy who is grounded in reality either.
I'm already waiting for a proper blitzkrieg on that one. The last time that an army trained through Russian/Soviet doctrine faced Western-style blitzkrieg, the war was over within 100 hours of battle.
No one should ever want any war let alone a war between nuclear powers.
NATO won't be getting involved directly unless Russia do something like cross the Nuclear line. Even for a regime defined by their incompetence that would be a really stupid move.
I wonder who they suspect? They must have someone in mind if it's a real leak. One of the MAGA lot on the Russian payroll?
Sounds a bit melodramatic. I am still calling playlet
If that's the case, I would not give that traitor the benefit of a trial. Two bullets to the head, the corpse hung to a lamp post, and a sign that says "traitor to my country" hung around the neck.
How civilised of you.
You are writing this only because a number of Barca fans have migrated into this topic to evade their own “war”.
A silly comment to break the tension in this scary thread for a moment or less.
Could this "leak" maybe just be a way to inform the public about such plans without upsetting official channels? And while they're at it, they might also have added some false information about Ukrainian military to confuse Russia. (At least that's what I'm hoping for.)
edit: impressive figures from Poland.
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The only reason NATO hasn’t officially gone in yet is the threat of escalation. Putin is a madman, it would be the perfect excuse for him. Plus it gives him even more propaganda material to say Russia is under threat. If it wasn’t a nuclear power that had tried to March in then I think NATO would have gone in. As it is, they’re doing the only thing they can at the moment-provide weapons, training and intelligence. It’s a slippery slope at the moment.
Does feel like that. Also, if it’s a Russian spy leaking it then they’ve given the game away doing it so publicly (on fecking Minecraft discord lol).
At least when the US and UK released intel in the run up to the war it was done by the very top and openly. The effect of that was to galvanise support for Ukraine, which worked. Not sure how this “leak” actually helps Russia in the long run.
A bit about Russia's defences.
That's class
The stones on this guy.
Yep. Nope. Now that’s one of those jobs that needs a 100% success rate.