Very good news out of Italy, after a daily increase of 25% for most of last week, it went under 20% and is only at 13% today. Seems like they're flattening the curve.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Only in Polish, it's everywhere, e.g. https://tvn24.pl/lodz/lodz-poltorar...go-pietra-jest-zakazona-koronawirusem-4354505
She was actually a year and a half not three. Third floor.
23 people involved in the rescue had to be removed out of duty for the next 2 weeks too. That's doctors, policemen, rescuers and nurses.
Haha, always mateEven on holiday
We're all working from home until further notice which frees up at least 2-3 hours of my day, so was really hoping to get a daily run fitted into my schedule in the next few weeks.How's it been in South Africa? Hope you guys stay safe out there!
We have no system to pay this, no workers trained in it, we have no legislation to run with it. I agree people will need financial assistance, and alot but would be too difficult to sort it all out amid a pandemic and soon to be lock down.
Thousands dying (and thousands more to come) and the economy tanking but at least you get to have a laugh at the Tories.
Oh right- there's feck all there apart from nice hotels and beach (and grinding poverty outside that). We had a week there after safari a couple of years ago. feck me it was hot.
That's not entirely true. The initial contact testing was successful buying us time. Are we actually doing worse with the outbreak than other similar countries in Europe?
Despite being literally very isolated (on a rock in the Atlantic), our school has just closed, and we're being told no more large gatherings. Zero confirmed cases to date, seem to be doing the 'right' thing and being proactive.
My question though, thinking about friends that work at restaurants, in physios, at gyms etc - at what point is the cure worse than the disease? For me personally, this feels 'novel' and like the politicians are (finally) doing what the medical experts said is best for flattening the curve.
But surely that's only one aspect of running a country? If huge swathes of the workforce run out of money, at a time emergency services are fully overwhelmed, aren't we going to see a situation far worse than the worst-case corona virus forecasts?
I can't see countries doing this for 2 months. There's not even spare resource to go around, even with government bailouts and so forth.
My question though, thinking about friends that work at restaurants, in physios, at gyms etc - at what point is the cure worse than the disease? For me personally, this feels 'novel' and like the politicians are (finally) doing what the medical experts said is best for flattening the curve.
But surely that's only one aspect of running a country? If huge swathes of the workforce run out of money, at a time emergency services are fully overwhelmed, aren't we going to see a situation far worse than the worst-case corona virus forecasts?
I can't see countries doing this for 2 months. There's not even spare resource to go around, even with government bailouts and so forth.
I’m finding the stance that it’s somehow wrong to lay blame with China very odd.
Have Italy reported yet? What’s the actual numbers please?
It looks like everyone will be doing this much, much longer than that too.
Please keep political point scoring nonsense out of this This virus is way beyond party lines and is currently crippling countries around the world on the left and the right.
This is their chernobyl.
The UK was following one strategy then realised just a few days ago that they had badly misjudged what was involved, prompting them to change course to become more in line with what other countries and the WHO had be recommending all along.
To my mind, that's a botch. Especially as such shifts in approach based on realities that had already seemed pretty clear to so many other countries, health bodies, scientists and doctors undermine confidence in any further measures.
That's been the biggest question in all this. Trying to find the balance between fewest deaths because of the virus and fewest deaths because of the economy is the hardest thing. All the statistics seem to suggest though that if left to run it's own course, the number of deaths could be in the millions, partly directly from the virus and mostly from the sheer strain on health services.
We're in uncharted territory and we will only really know who had the best idea when it's all over and we analyse the different response models and outcomes.
No doubt coming from the PC crowd running around branding everything under the sun racist.
I think the UK leaders clearly need to work on their communication. That much has become apparent in recent weeks. Whilst some of us are comfortable with their tone and their openness, others might appreciate stronger, decisive leadership and a little less information being shared.
Even the best minds will "botch" a lot with the benefit of hindsight though, when trying to take the optimum path through this. Everyday we will learn more, which we only wish we knew a week ago. All the modelling, all the different particular models (not singular) from different institutions being used, will be refreshed whenever new data is available and plans will evolve each day factoring in lessons learned so far. This isn't just Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance sitting in a smoke-filled room. We have some of the world leading institutions shaping this. This is a good thread on it, but this still doesn't even really factor in the economic side of things, the importance of which is slowly dawning on people:
There is no golden bullet out of this. Nobody has all the answers. People have widely praised Singapore's response and the intense measures they have taken, but if schools are your big bugbear, they never closed them either. Despite their more intense approach they are now seeing cases rising again despite their best efforts. That doesn't mean they are not following the optimal path. We just don't know.
There's still so much that we need to learn:
24.747 to 27.980, lowest increase (% wise) since the beginning of the outbreak in February.
Totally weird. Its directly their fault for how they operate those wet markets
Did people really hate on the Spanish for Spanish flu?
At some point we will all have to face the fact that we are going to be seriously impacted. We will either be related to or know someone that dies from this. I am not fobbing this off but trying to put a true perspective on how we should view this.
At some point we will all need to accept a new normal and its going to be hard and adopting a view that .38% is quite small is a part of that adaption. This is the very worst situation that Imperial College is predicting and hopefully the new measures and further measures later in the week will reduce this figure significantly.
.38% isn't going to end our society, it's not the end of the world and we will prevail.
I mean, I’m left leaning myself but I don’t think it’s racist to simply state that the origin of this virus is down to the extremely questionable open markets and the governments initial response to the outbreak.
No doubt some people are using that as a basis to further racist/xenophobic views but just stating that they need to make changes and accept some responsibility isn’t in any way unreasonable.
It didn't look good but the initial phase was a success. I think we did much better than similar countries in that regard and I'm not aware that we're in a worse spot currently than those other nations. This situation is going to be incredibly drawn out and multifaceted with numerous variables affecting outcomes so I'll reserve my judgeent on how the government handles it for now.
I do blame the Tories for not funding the NHS properly previously though, although that's on Cameron and Osbourne.
Not to mention the initial cover up.
Why would they do that?
Hang on @Prometheus and @Rado_N , my argument has never been "the UK or Swedish government is correct". My argument has been that they have been following the advice of their scientists and that should be commended, the fact that this new Imperial model has made the government change tune is surely a good thing? They are their advisors after all. That's what you do, you follow the science and I'm certain this will keep changing and adapting to the current situation as it has so far.
I think you're mixing me up with someone who likes Boris or the tories, I fecking don't, I desperately wanted Corbyn to win after the way this party has fecked up with Brexit for 3 years.
At the end of the day, different countries can and do have different approaches, according to their advice and their needs. Now who is doing much better in the World? Denmark for example closed everything, Sweden nothing, so far the Danish numbers look worse.
Now how that will play out, maybe Sweden will explode shortly and Denmark will get it fully under control, but who knows, but coming on here ranting about "the stupid fecks" when we have no real evidence of who is getting this right, and won't for months and months is daft.
If china grounded all flights in and out right from the get go except to let people get home to their own country (who would then quarantine) this wouldnt have become worldwide
I've always been suspicious of these tiny devils. They probably created it in a lab trying to get rid of us all.
That's the spin of many newspapers and political commentators. One of the original authors of that report meanwhile said:
People keep trying to present this as a polemic argument with two different camps: all countries that meaningfully comparable to us are employing variations on similar strategies, i.e. "Flattening the curve not so different from containment." We, and all other countries in fact, will continue to evolve our strategies based on what the multitude of models tell us with new data and incorporating lessons learned. This ain't Apollo 13; we don't do all the maths up front, intervene once and pray we have got it spot on.
It had nothing to do with Spain. Its actually believed to have started in either usa or france
Absolutely on both of the bolded.
I'm not sure if it's people trying too hard or what, but the fact I am close to losing everything thanks to this makes me a little less tolerant of the moral high ground on that one. However, I will say even after all that, I'm not going to blame the Chinese people. Those guys in those markets, that is their life. As soon as an actual racist feck like Trump calls it a Chinese virus, you know it's time to step back a little.
What I can't stand though, is people in here actually praising China's handling of it. Those fecks in power have hid this, and I bet everything left they still are, and caused this. Millions of people are suffering and millions more about to harder, all because those cnuts tried to keep this a secret. Yet some want to use this outcome to criticise the West? feck that. We have our own shit over here, no denying it, but the very fact they can weld people in at the drop of a hat and everyone has to kneel down and go with whatever is thrown at them, is one of the many reasons so many poor resort to wet markets in the first place. That's not a fecking strength.
What data points are you using to make that argument?
Yeah just hook up a vacuum cleaner to air purifier and you are done.
There is indeed so much we need to learn.
My problem with this particular "botch" by the UK is that it was based on something that was already clearly evident, even without the need for such extensive modelling. Based on what we were seeing in Italy, it was impossible for the UK's health service to cope under the UK's initial approach. When this was (repeatedly and vogourously) pointed out by people including those in the health service itself, the response was to say that this had all been carefully modeled and judged. When it was pointed that the UK's approach varied significantly from that of other countries and the WHO, the response was to suggest that there was no guarantee thay those other countries were doing things correctly.
For it then to turn out that the UK had misjudged such a fundamental factor so badly and so obviously (the emergency surge capacity could have been exceeded up to eight times over its limit) undermines trust in any further advice or reassurance that the UK is following the correct advice, especially if/when it deviates from what other countries are doing.
It's one thing to say that different approaches can only be assessed in the fullness of time but this particular approach was deemed to be a failure after only a few weeks, before it had even fully been implemented.
Guys, how long before we know for certain if these lockdowns will actually work?
I fear that everything will be for nothing, the virus will keep spreading even after the strong measures and the crippled economy will doom the lower class, especially in poor countries.
I fear that everything will be for nothing, the virus will keep spreading even after the strong measures and the crippled economy will doom the lower class, especially in poor countries.
The government has just put a travel ban on anywhere in the world!
Which government?
Wouldn’t it be better to call it physical distancing so that those who are numpties can understand what’s required?