When I was travelling for a year 20 years ago I met a Norwegian bloke who could put his finger into his mouth pointing upwards and it went right underneath his skin almost up to his eye socket.
He’d melted everything with this stuff!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
When I was travelling for a year 20 years ago I met a Norwegian bloke who could put his finger into his mouth pointing upwards and it went right underneath his skin almost up to his eye socket.
He’d melted everything with this stuff!
So all the doctors who talk about the decimated services are doing it purely to get more funding rather than telling the truth and speaking about problems which are clearly documented and anyone who has had the misfortune of suffering ill-health or knowing someone who has is painfully aware of?
2010-2016 health budget grew at a rate of 1.3%. It was 5.6% under prior Labour government. Historical average 1955-2016 is 4.1%. Are you still suggesting the NHS has not been underfunded? Tory ministers openly spoke of austerity, it was not some hidden secret. Are you suggesting their austerity agenda spared the NHS in spite of all the testimony from within the health services? In spite of overseeing an historical nadir in the rate of growth for the health budget?
I haven't got the raw data to do it myself but it looks like the trends would become a lot stronger without China.
Diamond Princess more or less rules that out. 1.5% mortality rate (everyone was tested) with an extreme age shift.
1.8% is latest mortality figure actually. Not really an extreme age shift. 1/3 were crew (avge age 36) and 2/3 passengers (avge age 69) Median age in the Uk is 40. Even if true CFR is 1% that’s a catastrophe.
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I think the complaints about the Tory Government's performance during the COVID pandemic are only partly justified.
I would call them out for not sealing the border off completely - anything up to 10,000 people per day are arriving at Heathrow and entering the UK without testing or obligatory quarantine. People from Spain, from France, from Italy and from the USA in particular. Crazy !!
The never-ending ' NHS Underfunding ' argument depends entirely on your personal politics - the same Tory Government haven't been responsible for the Health Services in Spain, France, Italy and the USA, and all the stats seem to indicate that each of those countries' performance, measured in Death Rates, is actually worse than the UK.
So if you want to argue that more money spent on HealthCare = less deaths, go ahead and argue but the argument isn't ( as yet ) convincing.
In SA, and I know in the US, many are now urging people to make their own masks out of cotton or something.
How effective are these? I assume not at all.
How effective are these? I assume not at all.
best video i have seen on the subject video may start at 10 mins but watch from start.
Check the shift between those over 70 years old (by far the most vulnerable category) there and in the world. And check those of under 20 years old (by far the least vulnerable category).
The median age in the world is just 28 years old. And by the numbers you gave, the median age there seems to have been around 58 years old (I might be slightly wrong cause I am using median as a proxy for mean, in absence of mean). That is far older than that of any country (I think Italy has the median at 48).
Last time I checked there (might have changed since then and I cannot find a recent research paper on it), no one under the age of 70 died back then. And people of that age were represented by 24.2%, while in real-world they are represented by only around 5%.
Additionally, in Iceland (who has done by far most tests per capita and it is such a small country that it is very hard for deaths to go unnoticed) the (current) casualty rate is 0.5%.
Just shy of 2%. One of the 14 deaths isn't officially recorded. I *think* it's the Australian that died in Perth on 1st of March, while the others all died in Japan.
A woman from Hong Kong in her 60's was the youngest reported victim. Another woman died who's age is not recorded in order to respect the wishes of her family.
People don't need N95 masks unless they are in a situation where they are directly dealing with someone with COVID19.
A basic mask will help someone contain their own exhalations, etc., and decrease the likelihood that they will infect someone if they are an asymptomatic carrier.
Swedish friend of mine came to stay for a week a few years back, used that stuff. Not only were his teeth and breath horrific, but the stuff really stinks in general. Wouldnt recommend.
This is actually one of the most braindead video that I have seen. Starting with deaths estimates, she probabaly missed the part where measures have been taken to limit infections which means that the worst estimations will be lower than if we did nothing, the rest is just way too stupid, you would swear that she can't fathom the idea that pandemics have already happened in human history, creating a scenario around one doesn't require to be a genius or a machiavel, it just requires to have a functioning brain.
Yep, could be. The latest paper I found was from March (there have been new deaths since then).
Yay, another idiot with a m'uh rights! video. She's such a super sleuth. Hope she can save us all.
She couldn't resist getting Hillary in there, either.
The number of people on that ship is too low to use it statistically. And the (older) people on that boat do not replicate the average people.
You watched video 36 minutes long in 13 minutes well done
Apologies if posted. The serosurveillance study out of Santa Clara came back at around 3% positive.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf
The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf
The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50- 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
feck was expecting a bit more than this.
But then it might mean that heavy-hit places like New York or Italy/Spain might have a bit more. I think Italy is guesstimating to have 10% of the population who have been infected.
It’s a small sample. Unlikely to be representative of the world as a whole. Oldish but presumably reasonably fit/mobile. How many with co-morbidities? How many BAME? The main thing is, in that enclosed sample, the CFR is bordering on 2%. If we half that (which is conservative) it’s still a horrendous mortality rate.
That's a significant amount if applied to the rest of the population. The problem is that it is only going to apply like that to heavily infected areas. Having said that, it does suggest a good portion of the population have or have had it.
That’s consistent with the serology testing from blood donors in European countries. 1.5%. This fecking thing kills 1 in 100 people it infects. The idea that we’d find 10-30% of the population of an entire country already infected was always a pipe dream. The death toll from that would be astronomical.
I think it is less than that, but yep, it could well be in that region.
My hope was more based on Stockholm/New York's testing of women giving birth when they found something like 12% or so of them being infected (naturally, more would have been infected and have healed by the time of the testing).
Have you seen her other content? She's quite the conspiracy nut talking about fake shootings, new world order etc, the whole nine yards.
I agree with all of that.
Santa Clara is not heavily infected. Only 69 deaths in a population of around 2 million people. For capita, it is the sixth heavily infected county in California (which is nowhere as much infected as some other US states). It helps a lot that it is quite suburban (except San Jose, but even San Jose looks much less densely populated than San Francisco, despite more people living in San Jose), and a lot of people work in tech companies, which issued work from home recommendations at the beginning/middle of March and orders a week later.
I think that the number of infected in more hit areas like New York in the US, or Bergamo in Italy is significantly higher.
I’m aware I’m being a massive negative nelly so a more positive ways to interpret the low % of infection as per serology testing would be the possible role of T-cell mediated immunity? Which could fight infection without generating the circulating antibodies you need for serological testing (based on my pre-med memories of immunology lectures - fully prepared to be schooled by an actual expert here!)
And I also wonder if some people have an inherent immunity despite no previous exposure. That’s got to be possible, right? 712 infections out of 3000 people on the Diamond Princess - when we know how insanely transmissable this cnut is - would raise that possibility, surely?
And I also wonder if some people have an inherent immunity despite no previous exposure. That’s got to be possible, right? 712 infections out of 3000 people on the Diamond Princess - when we know how insanely transmissable this cnut is - would raise that possibility, surely?
Based on what?
It is not only oldish, but it is also literally twice the median age of the world population. So, it had a really old population. The age median of passengers (where I believe all the victims occurred, correct me if I am wrong) was 68 years old. Many countries have an average life expectancy lower than that. The world's age median is 28, some African countries have it at 20 or so.
I think it is probably 1/4 of that (same as Iceland). To expect a larger under-representation of deaths compared with infections is very pessimistic. Sure, there are under-represented deaths, but even with symptoms it is still hard to get a test, so the denumerator is more under-reported than the numerator.
Finally, even 0.5% mortality is a horrendous number for such an infectious disease. The flu kills half a million people worldwide, and it has an R of 1.3. This has an R > 2.5 (probably > 5) while being probably 5 times as deadly. For herd immunity, we need 70% of the world's population getting infected, with a 0.5% death rate, which is 27 million deaths. And there is every reason to expect that the immunity created by this is probably from a few months to a couple of years or so (similar to that of the other coronaviruses), so that number would be for each year (unless we get a vaccine or strong anti-virals).
I don't need to watch 36 minutes, she didn't magically become smart between the moment she failed to set the context during the first 3 minutes and the moment she describes the document from the Rockefeller foundation, I mean go to 23:40 and think about what she is questioning, she reads an historical facts and acts as if technology wasn't and hasn't had a -positive and negative- transformative role in Healthcare, Agriculture, housing, climate change and education she tries to turn a fact into a conspiracy. A question who told her that Covid-19 infection rate isn't possible? It's not even close to be the most contagious virus that we know.
She basically states current facts like government being designed to control, the fact that technology can and will help control masses and is often driven by states particularly when it comes to health, safety and security. These are all facts that are not part of a conspiracy that's literally part of the official roles of a government but it's probably difficult to understand when you are dumb and libertarian, I hope that she realizes that this video was done with the early help of DARPA, her mind would explode.
You're right about the T-cells, they store memory of the virus when they engulf the virus, its structure and the RNA inside it. Plus, since a large percentage of cases are mild and even asymptomatic, this would mean a reduced production of antibodies, maybe even negligible enough to not show on a test.
3000 people on the boat. 2000 passengers. Median age of passengers was 69. 1000 crew. Median age of crew was 36. Someone else can do the maths but that would have to overall median between 45 and 55. Which is not massively out of whack with most European countries. Maybe 10 years older?
Hard to know. I used the median as a proxy for the mean (which is obviously wrong, but I don't know the mean). 10 years older is quite a lot though, and I was talking all the time about the CRF of the world.
Additionally, it is more interesting IMO to check the number of the very old (for whom the fatality is > 10%), and those of under 20 for whom the fatality rate is very close to 0. The first group was really over-represented there, while the second group was very under-represented. There is not enough data in either case, but Diamond Princess is even worse than the possible worst-case scenario for the fatality rate.
I think Iceland is a bit more realistic. 0.5% fatality rate, not many people getting recently infected, only 6 people in serious/critical condition. We can expect the fatality rate to go a bit higher when new deaths happen, but I think this balances those who are infected but not tested (and yes, even in Iceland, I think there should be some of them). I like to believe that the fatality rate worldwide has to be even lower than that, mostly considering that the world's population is even younger than Iceland's. Though most of those countries seem to have a bad medical system, which will probably remove the advantage of the young population.
The group that usually has the highest risk on is the most interesting on this ship.
The 70 or 75+ on this boat are - in difference to people in the normal society - much fitter and wealthier. If you aren't you do not go on such a trip!
The 70 or 75+ on this boat are - in difference to people in the normal society - much fitter and wealthier. If you aren't you do not go on such a trip!
That's a good point. It would also be interesting to know who has diagnosed heart conditions and diabetes on the ship because not all the +70 are at a very high risk.
We can't compare the ship mortality with the rest of the world for many reasons. Not only the median of their age, but because they had all the care of the Japanese health care system, while in the rest of the world, being young, they will have in many countries way less access to a decent health care treatment. I read that in 1 country in Africa (I don't recall the name), they had 1 respirator for the whole country. Also...PPE? I doubt it, other relieve medicines? Simple oxigen masks? skilled health care workers? access to health care workers? Underline conditions like nutrition, immunodepressives and other illnesses?. Also might have other advantages like less mobility, clima, etc...
But if any of the non develop countries gets the spread that western countries have, they will most likely have a way higher mortality rate than 2%
But if any of the non develop countries gets the spread that western countries have, they will most likely have a way higher mortality rate than 2%
Absolute fecking shit show.
I refuse to bite. Don't even.
WHO pissing over everyone's chips.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/who...no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/who...no-evidence-antibody-tests-show-immunity.html