SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Blackwidow said:
The group that usually has the highest risk on is the most interesting on this ship.

The 70 or 75+ on this boat are - in difference to people in the normal society - much fitter and wealthier. If you aren't you do not go on such a trip!
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Wealthier probably yes (not necessarily by much), fitter, I have no idea why would that be the case.
 
Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
The president of Belarus not only claims to be able to defeat Covid-19 through positive thinking, but also the ability to travel back in time.
“No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this,” Mr Lukashenko said on Monday. His health ministry had already confirmed 29 deaths from the virus.
The 65-year-old Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the former Soviet state for 26 years, has described the global pandemic as a “psychosis” and has refused to impose social distancing measures on his 9.5m people.

Belarusians should instead play ice hockey, drive tractors, use the sauna, drink vodka and pet baby goats to protect themselves from the virus, Mr Lukashenko has claimed. “If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,” he said.
 
4bars said:
But is true. There are several corona virus (if not all?) that we don't have immunity and we keep getting it over and over during all our lives. I don't know why this should be different. Herd immunity and vaccine might never happen and we will need to live with the risk of dying or our loved ones dying in a daily basis
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I thought that we get immunity for human coronaviruses, at least for a few months. And for the novel ones, for MERS the antibodies ceased to exist after a year, while for SARS, it was around 3 years. So why should this have zero immunity?
 
T00lsh3d said:
Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
The president of Belarus not only claims to be able to defeat Covid-19 through positive thinking, but also the ability to travel back in time.
“No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this,” Mr Lukashenko said on Monday. His health ministry had already confirmed 29 deaths from the virus.
The 65-year-old Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the former Soviet state for 26 years, has described the global pandemic as a “psychosis” and has refused to impose social distancing measures on his 9.5m people.

Belarusians should instead play ice hockey, drive tractors, use the sauna, drink vodka and pet baby goats to protect themselves from the virus, Mr Lukashenko has claimed. “If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,” he said.
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As long as they are negative to Covid-19, he has a point.
 
Revan said:
I thought that we get immunity for human coronaviruses, at least for a few months. And for the novel ones, for MERS the antibodies ceased to exist after a year, while for SARS, it was around 3 years. So why should this have zero immunity?
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Don’t think that’s true at all. Almost certain I read that neither of those viruses generated an antibody response that lasted more than 2 or 3 months.

EDIT: quick google reveals I’m probably wrong
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Don’t think that’s true at all. Almost certain I read that neither of those viruses generated an antibody response that lasted more than 2 or 3 months.

EDIT: quick google reveals I’m probably wrong
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I was referring to this paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ for SARS, there was some other paper I checked some days ago for MERS.

Unfortunately, it is outside of my field, so no idea how respectable is the venue the paper has been published.
 
Camy89 said:


Absolute fecking shit show.
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Pound for pound, worst country in Europe? Honest question. I have a mate who is pretty right-wing in some views and his view of the UK is very much 'we are great and we need to start proving to the world how great we are again'. I tell him that if he bothered to venture outside of the UK, he'd see that nobody actually sees Britain as remotely great, nowadays. A fallen giant, and a shitshow. Are we going to be fully exposed at the end of this, for what we seem to be?


Which leads me to the below......


T00lsh3d said:
Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus
The president of Belarus not only claims to be able to defeat Covid-19 through positive thinking, but also the ability to travel back in time.
“No one will die of coronavirus in our country. I publicly declare this,” Mr Lukashenko said on Monday. His health ministry had already confirmed 29 deaths from the virus.
The 65-year-old Mr Lukashenko, who has ruled the former Soviet state for 26 years, has described the global pandemic as a “psychosis” and has refused to impose social distancing measures on his 9.5m people.

Belarusians should instead play ice hockey, drive tractors, use the sauna, drink vodka and pet baby goats to protect themselves from the virus, Mr Lukashenko has claimed. “If a person stays positive, they will be healthy,” he said.
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Belarus are blatantly worse, but nobody has any expectations or standards for Belarus. Hence my 'pound for pound' comment. Belarus seems a pretty cool country, one which I'd like to visit one day, but it also seems very backward in many ways and I think most of Europe recognises that so has no expectations of them to act like anything else.
 
Compton22 said:


Desperation or confidence?
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Considering the cost is probably minor compared to the alternative of lock down for the foreseeable future, it would probably be a good investment for governments to cover the costs of 3 or 4 potential vaccines in this way and take the risk of starting production early. If one works out they would be better off than by not doing it and waiting 6 months when trials are complete.
 
Compton22 said:


Desperation or confidence?
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Neither. You start mass-producing different vaccines, hope that one of them works, and if so, then start vaccinating the population. It is also what Bill Gates is doing, he is spending over 100 million dollars to make factories of a dozen or so vaccines, despite that he knows only 2-3 of them might be needed in the end. It is essentially taking a financial hit but buying time.
 
The amount of lunatics claiming it’s all conspiracy on Facebook etc. is rising much faster than cases count. Funny that they all think they are much smarter than the rest of world who believes what they read in news, as they get truth from random online websites run by lunatics. This always made me smile about conspiracy freaks.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Don’t think that’s true at all. Almost certain I read that neither of those viruses generated an antibody response that lasted more than 2 or 3 months.

EDIT: quick google reveals I’m probably wrong
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Not the primary literature exacly but seems to be reasonably sources.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hs-on-what-scientists-now-know-about-covid-19

Doctors examining patients recovering from a Covid-19 infection are finding fairly high levels of neutralising antibodies in their blood. These antibodies are made by the immune system, and they coat an invading virus at specific points, blocking its ability to break into cells.

“It is clear that immune responses are being mounted against Covid-19 in infected people,” says virologist Mike Skinner of Imperial College London. “And the antibodies created by that response will provide protection against future infections – but we should note that it is unlikely this protection will be for life.”

Instead, most virologists believe that immunity against Covid-19 will last only a year or two. “That is in line with other coronaviruses that infect humans,” says Skinner. “That means that even if most people do eventually become exposed to the virus, it is still likely to become endemic – which means we would see seasonal peaks of infection of this disease. We will have reached a steady state with regard to Covid-19.”
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Sarni said:
The amount of lunatics claiming it’s all conspiracy on Facebook etc. is rising much faster than cases count. Funny that they all think they are much smarter than the rest of world who believes what they read in news, as they get truth from random online websites run by lunatics. This always made me smile about conspiracy freaks.
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We should use this as a criteria for selecting people for fast track virus trials. Specifically for the control group who are given a placebo before being infected.
 
4bars said:
But is true. There are several corona virus (if not all?) that we don't have immunity and we keep getting it over and over during all our lives. I don't know why this should be different. Herd immunity and vaccine might never happen and we will need to live with the risk of dying or our loved ones dying in a daily basis
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We are approaching a point where this thread needs to be shut down or something.

I spend 3-4 hours per day reading on this and this is the only place online where there are day-to-day (or hour-to-hour) claims that this is the end of everything.
 
Revan said:
I thought that we get immunity for human coronaviruses, at least for a few months. And for the novel ones, for MERS the antibodies ceased to exist after a year, while for SARS, it was around 3 years. So why should this have zero immunity?
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Few months might, I read I think that RNA type (I am talking what I read, but truly don't know anything if we go in depth in the topic) virus like this corona virus can mutate easily each 6-12 months.

At the same time, I believe that SARS-1 and MERS was difficult that they would mutate due to the small amount of people infected but this SARS-2, every time that replicates is a new option to mutate and as it had infected millions, probably on the tens of millions, had many chances and will have many chances to mutate and then you can get it again.

I think nobody know much anything about it, but what if we catch it as easy as we catch the common cold without immunity for it?

All and all, as I said It MIGHT not be any herd immunity or vaccination at all and many corona virus that had been in our lives for decades, had show us this possibility very easily
 
Pogue Mahone said:
3000 people on the boat. 2000 passengers. Median age of passengers was 69. 1000 crew. Median age of crew was 36. Someone else can do the maths but that would have to overall median between 45 and 55. Which is not massively out of whack with most European countries. Maybe 10 years older?
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https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html You can find the age breakdown from here for instance. Median age around 63-64. 70-79 1.015 passengers. 80-89 216 passangers.
 
4bars said:
I think nobody know much anything about it, but what if we catch it as easy as we catch the common cold without immunity for it?
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And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?
 
4bars said:
Few months might, I read I think that RNA type (I am talking what I read, but truly don't know anything if we go in depth in the topic) virus like this corona virus can mutate easily each 6-12 months.

At the same time, I believe that SARS-1 and MERS was difficult that they would mutate due to the small amount of people infected but this SARS-2, every time that replicates is a new option to mutate and as it had infected millions, probably on the tens of millions, had many chances and will have many chances to mutate and then you can get it again.

I think nobody know much anything about it, but what if we catch it as easy as we catch the common cold without immunity for it?

All and all, as I said It MIGHT not be any herd immunity or vaccination at all and many corona virus that had been in our lives for decades, had show us this possibility very easily
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Every virus mutates, all the time. To mutate on something that is effective against anti-bodies and anti-virals is another matter though. HIV is probably the most rapidly evolving virus, and still some anti-virals do an excellent job against it. At contrary, I think that SARS was mentioned to be a virus that does not evolve that much in comparison (and this one is very close to SARS).

I have yet to see someone who knows much about it to give the possibility that we won't have vaccines, anti-virals and any immunity against it. I think that the most likely scenario is that the infections will give us some immunity (from 6 months to a few years), and during this year we will have effective anti-virals, while next year an effective vaccine.
 
Hound Dog said:
And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?
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What if it telepathically infects people? Every time it infects someone, it also infects all the people the infected person knows.
 
Revan said:
I have yet to see someone who knows much about it to give the possibility that we won't have vaccines, anti-virals and any immunity against it. I think that the most likely scenario is that the infections will give us some immunity (from 6 months to a few years), and during this year we will have effective anti-virals, while next year an effective vaccine.
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Haven't you been reading the Caf over the last few days, Revan?

The majority is in agreement that there is minimal chance of vaccine. Or, if there is, it will be available only once everyone is already dead.
 
4bars said:
But is true. There are several corona virus (if not all?) that we don't have immunity and we keep getting it over and over during all our lives. I don't know why this should be different. Herd immunity and vaccine might never happen and we will need to live with the risk of dying or our loved ones dying in a daily basis
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I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.
 
Hound Dog said:
And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?
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Or, the Stand? Randall Flagg has been in the Caf for many years, we are all doomed.
 
Dr. StrangeHate said:
I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.
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Why? I find it extremely boring and unmotivating?
 
Hound Dog said:
And what if it mutates and comes back like the Spanish flu, with a second wave that mainly kills people in their prime? What if there is a third wave with a 100% death rate like that Korean movie, The Flu?
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Revan said:
Every virus mutates, all the time. To mutate on something that is effective against anti-bodies and anti-virals is another matter though. HIV is probably the most rapidly evolving virus, and still some anti-virals do an excellent job against it. At contrary, I think that SARS was mentioned to be a virus that does not evolve that much in comparison (and this one is very close to SARS).

I have yet to see someone who knows much about it to give the possibility that we won't have vaccines, anti-virals and any immunity against it. I think that the most likely scenario is that the infections will give us some immunity (from 6 months to a few years), and during this year we will have effective anti-virals, while next year an effective vaccine.
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You are right on the bold part. That is why WHO says it might not work. Not that would not work. Everything can happen, but corona virus history, doesn't show positive signs
 
Dr. StrangeHate said:
I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.
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6) why isn't this done by default ? Baffles me, if you can work from home why the feck are you going to work ?

I've had this argument with a few managers of mine over the last few weeks as the majority of them could work from home yet they come in just to get out of the house, therefore increasing the risk of infection on our workforce, wankers.
 
Dr. StrangeHate said:
I hope we don't see the worst outcome as you describe as that would mean a fundamental changing of the world. On the top of my head:
1) 2 m rule
2) Rare family gathering with elders
3) Soulless sporting events
4) Travel only for necessity
5) I don't know what dating will look like
6) WFH for jobs that can be done from home (this should be default anyway)
7) Nursing homes would only be served by astronauts
8) Old people will get extremely lonely
9) People with masks always on + mask bling
10) No socialising
11) Countries and people dependent on tourism annihilated economically
12) Increased mental health issues

I am sure I am missing very big ones.
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Basically. At a petty scale, when you meet a girl in tinder you might need to swap her nose and she yours. I said the nose
 
Balljy said:
Viruses mutate almost every time they transfer to another host. It is the type of mutation that is important and it seems to be very slow in Covid-19 so far. The mutations can be tracked here, but so far it is good news.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
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Yes, of course, but the more transmissions the more mutation options exists and SARS-1 and MERS had a short way to go
 
Heardy said:
what am I missing? Front line staff not having the necessary safety equipment is an absolute tragedy.

Why would anyone argue otherwise?
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You're spot on, I was just making a reference to the Priti Patel "I'm sorry if people feel there have been failings"
 
4bars said:
Yes, of course, but the more transmissions the more mutation options exists and SARS-1 and MERS had a short way to go
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The website which sources from medical data is showing that it has mutated multiple times, but so far in ways that are not going to hugely hinder vaccinations. This is up to now, so it might change, but considering how far it has spread the mutations are minimal luckily.
 
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