You said the same in game 8. What makes you think he will pull this off, it is quite clear he is not in top form?
True. In game 8 something very strange happened that I have never seen from Magnus in an important game. Carlsen lost game 8 mentally, may be partly out of "arrogance", but definitely not over the board. He was annoyed and wanted bad to prove he's a better player than Karjakin (which he obviously is) over the board, and that distorted his judgement and led to him playing some puzzling moves.
I think he's mentally in a better condition now, he's concentrating on the games now, showing more respect for Karjakin, and in fact, I think Karjakin is one feeling a bit "arrogant" now and he's starting to push too hard and take too many in necessary risks. So I think Carlsen has the mental edge now.
As for the position on the board, anybody who has followed Magnus knows that this position is the kind of position where he excels and this is where he separates himself from the rest of the pack. He plays these positions literally like a computer.
Defending these positions happen to be Karjakins specialty. Smells drawish still.
True, but I'm just not trusting Karjakin in this game. Usually he's very good at tactics, so did he miss Nxf2? Did he miss the draw, which would be a bad sign, or did he refuse to take the draw and went for more (which is a bad mental sign, because that's not the way he should be approaching this game)?
2 weeks ago I would've agreed in a heartbeat.
This is not the first time that Carlsen struggles at the start of a tournament but then return to his best form in the second half.