Nice to see that there's a 100% chance of a Labour hold in my constituency according to that website. It is a pretty safe Labour area to be fair although in the last GE the BBC had it down as a Conservative gain which was a bit shocking for me. Labour ended up winning by 11,000 votes so it wasn't even close.
Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
Probably quite a few... which is the point! Under our FPTP system, Labour needed (& needs) Tory voters to switch to them. You can't have a leader / party who actively repels them. You just can't!
Well, look you said those who blamed Corbyn (or more accurately, Corbynism), were peddling propaganda. I just gave you data. But here's more and here's more. More. And another MORI poll pointing out he was always electorally unpopular.
Regarding Miliband, he wasn't;t a great choice but you could view his result as a continuation of the post Brown decline in labour's popularity, losing 26 seats vs the previous election.
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There's definitely more than one view on that. Brexit was clearly a factor but so was the leadership (and the manifesto). From that poll:
- Among those who did vote for Labour in 2017 but did not in 2019 it was broadly the same story, with 37% citing Mr Corbyn, while only 21% said it was over their stance on Brexit.
- For those who defected to the Conservatives this time around, leaving the EU was a higher factor at 31%. But the issue still trailed well behind the party’s leadership, which polled at 45%.
- Labour defectors were most likely to say they switched because they did not want Mr Corbyn to be prime minister, did not believe Labour would be able to deliver on their promises, no longer thought Labour represented people like them, and wanted to get Brexit done.
- Mr Corbyn was a major reason for Labour's loss of support. Former Labour voters in focus groups criticised what they saw as his weakness, indecision, lack of patriotism, apparent terrorist sympathies, failure to deal with antisemitism, outdated and excessively left-wing worldview, and obvious unsuitability to lead the country
Anyway, enough of Corbyn. Yesterday's man, yesterday's problem.
Interesting will have a play around with that later to see. I don't think it would be that high on a gut feel, I always understood conventional wisdom was a 10-11% lead was needed in the polls for a slim majority so 14% being such a big swing doesn't feel right. Think it must be lacking some of the same assumptions on campaign swing, turnout etc.
Personally I think Labour are danger of it slipping to around 8-10% and we'll see a very close election. Unless they make advances in Scotland in which case it'll be an easy majority.
Yeah, there might be more than one view. But like you, they would be wrong.
I think it is partly explained by a lot of Tory seats having a 10-14% majority over Labour, so a small shift in the total vote (assuming uniform swing) will lead to a big difference in the total Labour majority.
It seems completely messed up that suella seems to be completely fine with throwing ethnic minorities under the bus and green lighting racist behaviour, I still believe her and sunak are puppets for someone working behind the scenes pulling their strings
Yeah his name rhymes with Shubert Burdoch.
Not sure if a serious post but I actually agree with your sentiments here a bit.
If you look into the tory parties ethnic minorities it does feel like many of them are simply puppets. The amount of minorities theyve had on their cabinets in recent years is hugely disproportionate in contrast to the number in the party.
It sometimes feels like by having ethnic minorities pushing some of these agendas that they and their supporters can push the "it's not racist" message due to who is heading them up.
Anyway a number of months ago I took a deeper dive into some of the minorities in the tory party. Suella Braverman contested seats in the past and failed. She then got shoehorned into farham which has always voted tory.
Sunak again was brought up in the south, Southampton I think? Has never had any ties to Yorkshire as far as I'm aware. But was shoehorned into a seat up there which again has only ever voted tory.
It feels a bit like their minorities are very carefully selected and then moved to constituencies miles from where they were brought up simply because they're safe seats which allow them to get these individuals into the commons.
Especially in Suellas case where she failed in Leicester and Bexhill before then being moved to one of the safest possible seats. Surely you'd want your strongest candidates in those seats or conservatives with a connection to the local area. Not someone who was twice rejected by the public.
And worst of all they all try to portray themselves as rag to rises too as well as the mainstream press. The BBC love referencing Zahawai as some sort of Iraq refugee rags to riches. But his grandfather was the governer of iraqs central bank as well as a former minister of trade in the country.
Suella also comes from wealth being born in Mauritius. With wealthy parents and an aunt who was the former Mauritian high commissioner to London.
Patel is another example. Shoehorned into Nottingham and loses the election. She was then moved to a prospective candidate "A List" and given a safe seat in Witham.
None of these people were truly elected by the people. They were simply placed in positions where it would be harder to lose than win.
So going back to your point. I agree with the sentiment. Not sure if they're necessarily puppets but they've been carefully selected and placed into power by the tories for a reason.
Well, convince me then, FFS.
It’s the same reason 30p Lee Anderson is in the position he’s in - he ticks the Tory Party ‘working class’ box.
In a shocking indictment, he is the textbook definition of what the story Party THINKS a working class person is; having workt down t’pit, just wants a pint wi’mates and hates Johnny Foreigner. So by getting him in, saying the shit he does, as soon as anyone goes to question him, you get accused of ‘attacking the working class silent majority’.
SIGH.
At least this Labour cabinet have integrity and are sticking to their senitments.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/12/labour-benefits-tories-labour-rachel-reeves-welfare
In the words of rachel reeves to benefit claiments. "labour is not for you"
Yvette cooper probably rubbing her hands in glee too.
FFS
https://news.sky.com/story/more-tha...l-in-a-week-highest-so-far-this-year-12855354
More than 1,100 migrant crossing in the last week. Which has hardly been the calmest weather.
Isn't it great when a plan works out as intended.
More than 1,100 migrant crossing in the last week. Which has hardly been the calmest weather.
Isn't it great when a plan works out as intended.
When you can't win for trying!
Both go: You're trying to overshadow the coronation!
One goes: You're depriving the King of a chance to see his grandkiids!
Just never mind the death threats.
Dan Wootton is pond scum. An absolute disaster of a human being.
I think it fair game to point out the vast amounts the Tories are losing in F&E in the benefits system. This is largely down to them cutting DWP budgets.
It takes a massive leap of illogic to state that Labour are blaming disabled people for a lack of cost of living support
Says the guy taking home £115,000 for doing basically feck all.
Money well spent by sunak for extra border protection at France's border...
This fecking cnut seriously has no shame!
In 40-odd days (including 10-12 when the country was in ‘national mourning’ FFS) she blew a £30bn hole in the economy destroyed mortgages for thousands and nearly destroyed the UK pension system!
Yet here she is, a three-legged donkey with an ice-cream cone stuck to her head cosplaying as an economic unicorn whereas in any functioning society she’d be hiding in a fecking corner too overwhelmed by her own stupidity to even fecking talk!
You’ve got to be pretty deranged to invite her to speak but then again that is America. They make British politics look rational.
Heritage Foundation 
Nah, it’s about even.
Wokeness! GAY FROGS AND IMIGINTS. Literal Trans Stalin eating your last slice of bread!
Meanwhile the world around us fecking burns thanks to cnuts like these...
To be fair you are right, we have been catching up and overtaking fast in the last few years.
Why would someone think it's a good idea to let her speak in public, and pay her for it?
Amazingly enough she was PM of the UK for a short time. Who in their right mind allowed that to happen.
That's not fair. There were young racists too.
Conservative councillor withdraws from party in Haverfordwest after alleged slavery comments
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2023...raws-from-party-after-alleged-racist-comments
It’s the little finger twitch at the end that does it for me… like no nothing?
You're not supposed to say it in public old chap, save it for the party conference.