It could either be the "everybody feck off" vote going from UKIP to green to Labour -> Green and UKIP->(Con+Lab).
Westminster Politics
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It could either be the "everybody feck off" vote going from UKIP to green to Labour -> Green and UKIP->(Con+Lab).
It's almost a new form of BDSM.
Feck me I love McDonell, he was great last election night too.
Sir John Curtice's early prediction
Looks like a Brexit-driven vote (or maybe the areas that have reported so far are Brexit-driven). Either way, bad news for Labour.
Keep in mind these are the seats being defended (Labours best ever local election result afaik, in 2014)
Labour 2,278
Conservatie 1,365
Liberal Democrats 462
UKIP 126
Greens 31
RAs 48 2
Others 100
Labour will likely have fewer councillors at the end of the night, but they'll make gains in London, and what's more important is if they gain control of more councils than they lose.
I think it's looking like a continuation of last year's GE, outside London and the big cities (particularly midlands) seeing Tories doing well, Labour making big gains in the metros. UKIP seem to be collapsing in the same way as well.
New statesman blog(Stephen Bush is blogging so it's fine)
00:27: It's very early but here's a thought: if the pattern of the results so far holds up, and Labour does well in England's great cities but poorly elsewhere, it has big implications for the internal Tory fight about how they can get a majority next time: the Bishop Auckland or Battersea question. The Battersea-ites want to try to regain their liberal graduates, the Aucklandites want to make a sweep into traditional Labour territory in small towns and ex-mining territory.
00:27: It's very early but here's a thought: if the pattern of the results so far holds up, and Labour does well in England's great cities but poorly elsewhere, it has big implications for the internal Tory fight about how they can get a majority next time: the Bishop Auckland or Battersea question. The Battersea-ites want to try to regain their liberal graduates, the Aucklandites want to make a sweep into traditional Labour territory in small towns and ex-mining territory.
Wouldn't that require an extraordinary youth turnout for local elections (unlikely)?
No, labour is ahead with almost all age groups in metropolitan areas.
London also has extenuating circumstances with the Grenfell tragedy and Brexit being blamed on the Tories.
For it to be as big a win in London, yes, but should still be large gains as a result of the middle aged remainers that went big for Labour in 2017.
Owen Jones doesn't seem to have made a different in Swindon.
Phoar, greens with a couple of extraordinary gains tonight
0.5% swing since 2014? Not sure it's so important given Labour would go on to lose South Swindon by 12 points in 2015. Have reclaimed more of the UKIP there than elsewhere, though.
A 93 year old woman lost in Newcastle. What the feck is a 93 year old trying to get elected for?
Just something to do, innit, you ever been in an old folks home? Worse than death most of the time.
She's the leader of the Tory youth movement.
More on the Leave/Remain splitCurtice said:
Strange how comments on gender, colour, race or sexual orientation would result in certain cafe warnings, but age is fair game.
Laugh the recent ones off by all means, but it's been a trend here for a long time. Maybe a few who think of themselves as champions of social justice are actually quite the arseholes themselves in reality?
Laugh the recent ones off by all means, but it's been a trend here for a long time. Maybe a few who think of themselves as champions of social justice are actually quite the arseholes themselves in reality?
Nobody's perfect I suppose, but there is a larger history of suppression based on gender, race (what's the difference between race and colour?) or sexual orientation compared to age. Certainly the only limitation on age when it comes to voting has been towards the younger end of the spectrum rather than the old.
But in any case you right, comments about age seem fairer game. Not everyone can be a great social justice warrior like yourself!
You'd expect a representative from the opposition on a night like to night to be on the TV to extol these results as evidence of a government in crisis and an opposition of a government in waiting. Especially when the government actually is in crisis. McDonnell's performance on the BBC tonight playing down the importance of the results in so far, questioning whether any kind of extrapolation can be made, finding excuses for what's happened - it isn't really a position someone representing the opposition party 8 years into someone else having the keys to No. 10 would expect to be in.
Well we're back to square one then, would you have said that to someone questioning racism or sexism. I think not.
good point, everyone will recall that the epic 2014 local election results led to glory for ed milliband
No I wouldn't and I explained why.
Yes but what's your opinion of Jeremy Corbyn?
2014 wasn't an epic local elections for Ed Miliband at all. In fact they were considered bitterly disappointing for Labour and the leadership drew criticism for not doing considerably better.
it was an all time high for labour, ed was walking around with an erection for a month
Indeed.
It's silly to expect Labour to match those highs.
I think expectation management includes pretending that what was considered a bitterly disappointing night for the party in 2014 was actually some kind of pinnacle that in 2018 it'd be unfair to measure performance against.
Where are you getting this from?
A lot of us did try to ask Oscie what a good result for Labour would be before the vote but to no surprise he completely ignore us. Mainly so he moan on here tonight.
I'm pretty sure John Curtice said it, looks like 71 was better though
Feck off you'll be old yourself one day. Which in your case means pretty fecking soon!
Closest result so far, there should be some single digit races tonight though
The real story of the night isn't that the opposition party are on course to do worse than their 2014 disappointment, or that it's struggling against a government lurching between one crisis to another - it's the fact that I didn't set figures before the event as to what I'd consider a good or poor night for Labour to be.
The real story is the continuation of the 2017 election trend and the fallout from the Brexit result.
They should be doing better than 2014 once London comes in.
Re: 2014. Really just Google the press coverage of those results and it'll show you how utterly ridiculous it is for anyone to claim that was some kind of great night for the Labour party.