I understand (I don’t relate well to posh kids from the South wearing Lenin caps) but, to win an election, you need to get all anti-Conservative/Labour voters on board. If Starmer has any strategic sense (and I’m not sure he does), he’ll make an electoral reform coalition so that the current FPTP strangehold can be broken.
Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
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I understand (I don’t relate well to posh kids from the South wearing Lenin caps) but, to win an election, you need to get all anti-Conservative/Labour voters on board. If Starmer has any strategic sense (and I’m not sure he does), he’ll make an electoral reform coalition so that the current FPTP strangehold can be broken.
Wish I was a posh kid, if you were referring to me.
Anyway, who would he make such a coalition with.
Only Liberal and Greens?
Apologies for any misunderstanding, I was certainly not referring to you. I was referring to the private school educated Jeremy with a brother named Piers. Man of the people, he read some books about working people.
The furore over voter ID has always seemed a manufactured one to me.
It’s been in place in NI for decades, and no one raises an eyebrow about it.
Let me guess, you have photo ID so it doesn't cause you an issue?
What about those who don't?
No lead is infallible. Big majorities have been lost throughout history
So to answer your question, any potential future Tory election loss for generations to come, obviously?
It’s second sentence that’s the relevant one, and NI has plenty of said groups.
Just for reference, the following documents are accepted at polling stations in NI as proof of identity:
* Translink is the public bus and rail service
- A UK, Irish or EEA driving licence (photographic part) (provisional accepted)
- A UK, Irish or EU passport (note: EU passports are not accepted at UK Parliamentary elections)
- An Electoral Identity Card
- A Translink Senior SmartPass
- A Translink 60+ SmartPass
- A Translink War Disabled SmartPass
- A Translink Blind Person’s SmartPass
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His secondary school was Grammar, not private.
Only idiots read books? What is your point here
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Many friends and colleagues have said he wouldn’t last the week but cynical me said he’ll ride this out still as politically it makes little sense for the conservatives to throw him away just yet. There must be an extra little scandal waiting to emerge that they want to pin on him to whitewash the sins of the many in the party.
I cannot see this being resolved soon and I can also see Johnson receiving a knighthood for his pandemic services down the line which will be the final salt in the wound.
They’ll wait and wait for the report findings and I don’t see him stepping down so then they have to decide if it’s worth forcing their own leader out and appearing to be infighting. Funnily enough the local constituents of the MP who defected that were staunch conservatives don’t appear to be behind the defection despite how obviously shit the party has been surrounding this whole scandal so I have no faith in conservative voters showing enough displeasure to defect to labour themselves.
They are better off staying on message that “we’re focussed on the pandemic” and then closer to next election get rid and replace with a less tainted candidate.
I suspect that people haven't read any of the details of the legislation and/or are projecting their obsession with US politics onto the UK again.
In some states in the US you have to have types of ID that cost $75 and upwards to vote. Under the new legislation in the UK the following types of ID are acceptable
- Various concessionary travel passes
- PASS cards
- Ministry of Defence identity cards
- Photocard parking permits issued as part of the Blue Badge scheme
- Driver’s licenses
- Passports
- Free Voter Cards, provided by local authorities
I'm sure that the UK Govt's survey findings will be disputed somewhere but they claim that 99% of ethnic minorities surveyed hold one of the IDs on that list and 98% of white people do. They also claim that the scheme is based on the one in Northern Ireland which they claim has had no effect on voter participation, as you suggested.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/voter-identification-faqs
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My personal view on this issue is that it seems very much to be a case of 'breaking the butterfly upon the wheel' and is completely disproportionate to the issue.
The Electoral Commission (https://www.electoralcommission.org...lectoral-fraud-data/2019-electoral-fraud-data) found only 164 cases of voter fraud in the 2019 GE that were reported to the police (not even that were investigated and found to be true). Compare that to a voting population of 47.6m (as of March 2020, according to the ONS) so, even if all 164 were true, it's in incidence rate of 0.0000035%.
Fundamentally I don't have an issue with it as the ID would be free to get, but it seems just so disproportionate and will no doubt disenfranchise people that would use it as another excuse not to vote, that I feels it's obsolete even before it's rolled-out.
Elitist toffs playing socialist and telling the working man what to do presumably. Which, as a point, seems much more patronising to the working man than the point itself to me but, hey, at least the poster didn't call Corbyn "the jew hater".
This legislation is at the recommendation of the Electoral Commission rather than a sinister Tory voter suppression plot.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/id-needed-polling-stations-recommends-independent-watchdog
The government's argument on the low instance of convictions for voter fraud is because of how difficult it is to police and prosecute. Regardless of that the electoral commmission recommend it principally it to strengthen faith in the democratic process. How long will it be before we import more garbage US political culture and we start to hear cries of 'stolen elections' from some?
If there's no or negilible impact on voter participation and it strengthens faith in the democratic process then it seems a resonable move to me.
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Yes, I'm aware of the valid documents. The electoral ID card is an option for those without the other more expensive/ age specific documents. But it is an unnecessary barrier imo.
The quote below sums it up well.
Research shows that more disadvantaged groups are less likely to have ID. The government’s own commissioned research found that those with severely limiting disabilities, the unemployed, people without qualifications, and those who had never voted before were all less likely to hold any form of photo ID.
Here in the UK, millions of people lack the strictest forms of photo ID, such as a passport or driving licence. Government-commissioned research found that 2% of people don’t have any form of photo ID (including expired or unrecognisable) and 4% don’t have recognisable ID (roughly 2.1 million people) – making mandatory voter ID a barrier to many people exercising their right to vote.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/campaigns/upgrading-our-democracy/voter-id/
I can fully appreciate, and was aware that this was at the recommendation of the Electoral Commission, but when their own data shows this low incidence, you have to question the why of it all.
However, if it was simply a case of adding a picture when you register to vote and you then receive your voting card in the post for no charge, then I've no specific action - it just has to be an automated part of registering and free of charge (which I think was already confirmed in the legislation).
Picking up a recommendation that is 8 years old is hardly an independent action. Of course the electoral commission would recommend ID as they're tasked with ways to increase confidence in the voting process.
Government get a lot of recommendations from the civil service and commissions, unsurprisingly most are ignored.
There's only one reason they've decided to try and enact this now and that's because it's politically advantageous.
If you're going to enact this you have to go the full way and have a national id scheme so there's no imbalance. It's about time we went down that path anyway, the scaremongering when Brown tried it was ridiculous.
Does anyone still think Boris doesn't make it to February?
I'm increasingly thinking that they won't even get the vote by next week, let alone the numbers to win it. I think if Boris says privately 'I promise I won't be leader at the next general election', which I don't think he has any desire to do anyway, then he'd convince enough of them that him winning a vote and going in less dramatic fashion is best for all involved. I don't think his rivals will be that keen to encourage the ever increasing regicidal culture in the party they wish to lead.
I'm increasingly thinking that they won't even get the vote by next week, let alone the numbers to win it. I think if Boris says privately 'I promise I won't be leader at the next general election', which I don't think he has any desire to do anyway, then he'd convince enough of them that him winning a vote and going in less dramatic fashion is best for all involved. I don't think his rivals will be that keen to encourage the ever increasing regicidal culture in the party they wish to lead.
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Appreciate your clarification. As you may have gathered, I was certainly not a fan of him.
Honestly. What is the really all about.
Two tenths of bugger all.
Instead of dicking around with trivia, they should focus their attention on increasing voter turnout.
Thats pretty much what May did
My gut feel is that unless the Grey report exonerates him that will be the trigger point for sufficient letters to the 1922
For the confidence vote I think if he has mislead parliament you will see his support from the cabinet melt away very quickly as they all look to go down the route the PM assured me personally he had not mislead parliament and that has been shown not to be true
If that happens then I think he will say that having got brexit done and stewarded the country through covid its time for him to spend more time with his family and he will stay in charge whilst the conservative party selects the new leader
I would have no issue with voter ID - though I would hope that they also look at new methods of voting and if that ID could be used to varify an app for phone voting for example
I work in elections, I run them for my local authority. The amount of electoral fraud in elections is non existent. There are various safeguards in place to prevent it already. It's clear this legislation is to make even more difficult for certain people (majority who are Labour voters) to vote. When turnouts for the majority of elections bar Parliamentary are already poor, this will make them worse. Additionally the same bill allows people who don't live in the country but were born here to vote in any elections, whereas there was a 15 year rule before. The majority of who would be Tory voters.
Great post and thanks for the information.
I'm not really sure what to expect from Grey. I feel the only thing we know about her is she fundamentally believes that the public should not know what goes on behind the scenes, so I'd expect where she feels she can exclude bits or water them down, without personal risk, she will. She's also presumably about to retire, so I don't know what personal risk she could suffer.
It may be the case there it's barely possible, and certainly not defensible, to not to find against him, though, I don't know.
There's no way the Gray report will tip more Tories into sending letters. Given even the pro-Boris Sun has said he's been telling potential rebel MPs he'll regain control of the party after Gray backs him, you know the report is going to be a fudge.
No way he relies on it, banging on about it repeatedly, if there's more than a 0.1% chance it will be damning.
Given this is not an independent inquiry and Grey works for Boris and has no real power, I expect a bland "drinking culture" response and Boris will crow about being exonerated and getting on with the important job. He will fire a few senior civil servants and this will be a sad foot note.
She's about to retire? Bribes galore behind the scenes then. I'll be shocked if she doesn't suddenly come into some advisory director role at a Tory linked firm where she gets 'paid' for nothing.
senior civil servant.... think she will have her eyes on a title and a seat at the lords...
I'm sure Rishi will oblige
Thanks for sharing. Makes sense.
He once met one...me!... bet he doesn't remember, we both had brown hair and more of it than now
Probably but you have to actually turn up to be paid, much to some of the lords amazement.
People struggling across the country but this is the shite the Government concentrate on:
Shapps is one godawful slimy bastard.
Constant fecking lies. This one from Pork fan Liz:
Yep the right words in the right order.
Torygraph are all-in on ousting the clown.