Westminster Politics

Does anyone still think Boris doesn't make it to February?

I still think early February. There's too many knives out for him now for him to survive. I think the only thing that could save him would be a massive swing back to the Tories in the polls over the next week, and I don't think that's at all likely.

Tory MPs are shitting themselves over the Labour lead, and once that party get panicky they're ruthless with their leaders.
 
Next year he'll go I reckon. There'll be a little deal cooked up with this sham report.
 
The obvious flaw is in Tony Blair. And that Blair has made it much harder for a future Labour government because of his actions. E.g. the Iraq war, going against a 1 million person protest. As a key example. The fact he brought in tuition fees against his manifesto as another.

People lost faith in Labour as an alternative after Blair because they enacted Tory like policies.

Blairs 3 actions are easily trumped by more damaging Tory Policies.

For the Iraq war see Brexit, the Afghanistan exit, supplying Saudi with Arms to annihilate Yemen. For Tuition Fees see Brexit again, Pension Triple Lock, and the cherry atop the shit flavoured sponge : let’s celebrate people drowning in The Channel.

There are some really great studies and commentaries on the Blair years. He liked the fame quite a bit and was easy to dislike… but the data for most social metrics improving, everywhere, is very compelling. He moved too far to the middle when he saw the £ signs but even from there he improved outcomes for people that needed help.
 
We receive 250,000 people a year. They come to work. They make building houses easier. Not harder.

The only reason the Tories don’t solve the housing crisis is that the entire ethos of the party is founded on being landlords. They need banks to tell a nurse she can’t afford a £750 mortgage so they’re forced to pay £1000 a month in rent.

Poor people buy houses for rich people in this country. Immigration is divorced from the problems with housing stock. The shortage is not a bug. It’s a feature.

If the UK population was growing by 250'000 people a year because of domestic birth rates no one would have a problem with the idea that it would be a factor likely to exacerbate a housing crisis.

There are many factors in the supply shortfall as there are in the demand increase. The growing population is obviously one of them.
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One factor. Now many. Not building fast enough. That’s it.

Also : 250,000 people does not matter. It’s such a tiny number against 65 Million.

Landlords have no social value and are oppressive.
 
If the UK population was growing by 250'000 people a year because of domestic birth rates no one would have a problem with the idea that it would be a factor likely to exacerbate a housing crisis.

There are many factors in the supply shortfall as there are in the demand increase. The growing population is obviously one of them.

One factor. Now many. Not building fast enough. That’s it.

Also : 250,000 people does not matter. It’s such a tiny number against 65 Million.

Landlords have no social value and are oppressive.
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That's not true. For example, if you wanted to go and get a job in another city you'd be very glad of somebody having a property to rent you.

Everything in balance - I think the problem is that the rent is more expensive than the mortgage not that the rent exists at all. Landlords effectively have their cake and eat it with the current system in most cases - they earn enough income to pay off their mortgage AND make a profit on top usually. Given your mortgage payments are earning you a share of a valuable asset, it shouldn't be that you make a profit as well. If anything it ought to cost you money to rent out a mortgaged property.
 
Blairs 3 actions are easily trumped by more damaging Tory Policies.

For the Iraq war see Brexit, the Afghanistan exit, supplying Saudi with Arms to annihilate Yemen. For Tuition Fees see Brexit again, Pension Triple Lock, and the cherry atop the shit flavoured sponge : let’s celebrate people drowning in The Channel.

There are some really great studies and commentaries on the Blair years. He liked the fame quite a bit and was easy to dislike… but the data for most social metrics improving, everywhere, is very compelling. He moved too far to the middle when he saw the £ signs but even from there he improved outcomes for people that needed help.

He and new labour did indeed improve so many things.
Hospital waiting times, which have never been equalled or achieved even close.
Hospital rebuilding which was desparately needed.
School improvements.
And for me, the most important, kept the Tories out of power for 3 elections.
And of course, Gordon Brown was a very good chancellor.

Yes of course Iraq was a negative. But people need to clearly understand the situation at that time and not just look back with hindsight.
 
No way he relies on it, banging on about it repeatedly, if there's more than a 0.1% chance it will be damning.

Unless it is Boris's 'oven ready' exit plan?

For quite a while now Boris has been spotted in the vicinity of the 'cookie jar', examining it, taking the lid off, lifting it up...etc. finally he's been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Nothing he says or does from now on will be believed, even by his own supporters.... time to go!

Being outed by Grey, is akin to taking the whole responsibility on himself, "....it is a far far better thing ...etc." in his eyes 'martyrdom' he can retire to the backbenches, or even stand down as an MP leave Westminster behind and make a shit load of money selling book after book, starting with 'My Time in Office'... wouldn't be surprised if the first ten chapters all about the Success of Brexit are already in draft form...!
 
Unless it is Boris's 'oven ready' exit plan?

For quite a while now Boris has been spotted in the vicinity of the 'cookie jar', examining it, taking the lid off, lifting it up...etc. finally he's been caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Nothing he says or does from now on will be believed, even by his own supporters.... time to go!

Being outed by Grey, is akin to taking the whole responsibility on himself, "....it is a far far better thing ...etc." in his eyes 'martyrdom' he can retire to the backbenches, or even stand down as an MP leave Westminster behind and make a shit load of money selling book after book, starting with 'My Time in Office'... wouldn't be surprised if the first ten chapters all about the Success of Brexit are already in draft form...!
The best thing the U.K. could do would be to confine this clown to the dustbin and not experiment again. I mean not just now but after his service as well
unfortunately we all know that the range of MPs now with a brain and common sense are few and far between
 
unfortunately we all know that the range of MPs now with a brain and common sense are few and far between

That is true... be careful what you wish for, who in the Tory hierarchy will 'seize' the day/take up the baton' from Boris...?

As Frank Spencer might have said.."Oooh Betty...I think we've done a whoopsee"
 
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That is true... be careful what you wish for, who in the Tory hierarchy will 'cease the day/take up the baton' from Boris...?

As Frank Spencer might have said.."Oooh Betty...I think we've done a whoopsee"
I imagine that not even the Tories will put an end to the rotation of the Earth.
 
He and new labour did indeed improve so many things.
Hospital waiting times, which have never been equalled or achieved even close.
Hospital rebuilding which was desparately needed.
School improvements.
And for me, the most important, kept the Tories out of power for 3 elections.
And of course, Gordon Brown was a very good chancellor.

Yes of course Iraq was a negative. But people need to clearly understand the situation at that time and not just look back with hindsight.
Clearly Blair did some good (and some bad) and was better than the Tories preceding and following his and Brown's Governments but the Iraq situation requires no hindsight. At the time it was clearly wrong and many, many of us took to the street to demonstrate this. Do you not recall?
 
What exactly was the situation at the time which makes Blair's Iraq War more understandable?

As you may remember, there was lots of discussion at the time as to whether it was legal or not.
And Saddam Hussein was hardly a saint was he.
A close friend of mine was in the military and actually went to Iraq and told me about what was happening there.
I don't expect others to think differently. But it was, in my opinion better that Blair moderated Bush W actions.
 
Clearly Blair did some good (and some bad) and was better than the Tories preceding and following his and Brown's Governments but the Iraq situation requires no hindsight. At the time it was clearly wrong and many, many of us took to the street to demonstrate this. Do you not recall?

Sure I recall. But it was a matter of opinion. And mine was different than yours.
Nevertheless, I can readily understand why many were against it.
 
Sure I recall. But it was a matter of opinion. And mine was different than yours.
Nevertheless, I can readily understand why many were against it.
...and those who were against it were at the time. Not with the benefit of hindsight as you claimed which was my point.
 
Now wait for the rabid press and media campaign highlighting Islamophobia within the Tory party...

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Does anyone still think Boris doesn't make it to February?

There is an argument to be made that the strategic move is to keep him in place till May.

The local elections will probably be a bit of a disaster whoever is in charge for the conservatives so let him carry the can for that and then get rid?

That said there will be an awful lot of local councillors and candidates putting a lot if pressure on their mp to act swiftly and give then the best chance they can get in May

Gut feel is that if the report reveals new parties or that Johnson deliberately misled cabinet and parliament then I think it very likley he goes within 48 hours or I think the letters will go in

As to if he would survive I would say that my impression is that he isn't particularly liked by a lot of factions.

The erg see him as too socially Liberal and now brexit is done he's served his purpose.

The May Wing of the party still hate him for his maneuvering to get her out

The Cameron/ Osborne wing hate him for joining leave in the referendum

The red wall mps see him as a liability

And if he has mislead cabinet I think all the senior cabinet mps and their closest allies won't want to publicly defend him

So bad report I can see him realistically going soon

If the report provides enough cover he might limp on till may but I struggle to see him staying beyond there unless there is a massive upset and they do well at the polls
 

Sadly I don't think this has any bearing on their public perception, those likely appalled would likely never vote Tory anyway, and those that do won't be bothered. Might even see a Con (+2) bump.

Anyway I'm sure they can hire sun_tzu to churn out some hilarious 'Jezbollah' quips to help illuminate the real issue of bigtory.
 
Nope, anti semitism was never weaponised for political purposes, never was. See the daily mail leading with stories about Katie price today.
 
Let's be brutally honest, islamophobia is much more accepted/ tolerated in British/ Western society in general by the general population that anti-semitism/ bigotry against Hindus or other religious minorities would be.

I don't think a lot of people will care about this and even some of the ones who would wouldn't care enough to make it change their vote.
 
Let's be brutally honest, islamophobia is much more accepted/ tolerated in British/ Western society in general by the general population that anti-semitism/ bigotry against Hindus or other religious minorities would be.

I don't think a lot of people will care about this and even some of the ones who would wouldn't care enough to make it change their vote.

Yep. First black MP was in the 19th century (albeit a slaver's son), first Jewish MP likewise. Ok there wasn't a black MP again in the 20th century until 1987 I don't think, but there was never a Muslim MP at all until 1997 which is crazy really when you think how many Muslims there are in this country. And the first female Muslim MP? 2010!

You have to figure part of it is perhaps about Islamic culture as well I suppose but it cuts both ways, clearly they've been ostracised to some extent even if some degree of it might have been "self imposed" as well.
 
Let's be brutally honest, islamophobia is much more accepted/ tolerated in British/ Western society in general by the general population that anti-semitism/ bigotry against Hindus or other religious minorities would be.

I don't think a lot of people will care about this and even some of the ones who would wouldn't care enough to make it change their vote.

It's because of the highly publicised terrorist incidents from the minority jihadist elements of Muslim society. Same as anti-Irish sentiment in the 1970s and 1980s.

Not saying it's right, but it will always be the way the narrative will go in such circumstances.