Thanks
Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
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Thanks
Johnson has lived his entire life believing ordinary conventions (like observing rules and telling the truth) don’t apply to him. He must be really scratching his head as to why, in his mid-50s and after 100s of well-known precedents of rule-breaking and blatant falsehoods, he is getting serious flack over some pocket money (as he’d see it) to keep his partner sweet and spare her the ghastliness of living with John Lewis furnishings.
Must have been her twin sister who reported, via Tory sources, that a Labour activist had punched Matt Hancock's spad just before the last election.
Yep Laura K's article is an embarrassment, a million and one ways to excuse his behaviour. Not sure what it would take for her to brand something an outright lie. Johnson was clearly genuinely pissed by the questions from Starmer. I'm not getting my hopes up that all of this actually has any impact on voters though.
Client fecking journalism
No one challenge this twat at all, it’s pathetic! He gets away with saying anything and voters believe it.
Hartlepool has a population of 93,000 yet 180k jobs
Hartlepool has a population of 93,000 yet 180k jobs
No one challenge this twat at all, it’s pathetic! He gets away with saying anything and voters believe it.
Hartlepool has a population of 93,000 yet 180k jobs
Maybe Hartlepool has a population of 93k but Nadine is talking about Harlepool which, last time I checked, had EXACTLY 180k residents. They're also all ex Labour voters and turned to the Tories because they're sick of the far left wing agenda of Starmer and just wanted Brexit to get Done. As per my source, Laura Kuennsberg.
tory polling looking pretty bad, almost similar to numbers last year around this time (the cummings thing)
Ah yes the great town of Harlepool where all the fish wear union jacks and dress like Rees Mogg.
Sometime you just lose hope with people in country and realise people deserve the shit they vote for. Unfortunately everyone else gets impacted as well. What a fecking sad state of affairs.
I don’t like England
Not at all optimistic about the forthcoming elections and if Hartlepool is dim enough to vote Tory then good luck to them.
Pretty obvious that people have already forgotten about the total shambolic handling of the pandemic and the thousands of deaths caused by them.
You get the government you deserve. And the UK deserves a PM like Boris.
Forgotten it? I’d wager good money that most of these people exist in a bubble cultivated by Facebook, Daily Mail, The Express, The Sun and even the BBC to an extent in which Boris has done everything he could and the UK have actually dealt with it better than the the EU by every measure and we are lucky it wasn’t Labour in charge or all the things that have happened in the past year would have happened.
Love your irony.
Do you expect anything better from the monkey-hangers?
There are more over 50's in Hartlepool than people under 35. At least according to a housing assessment from 2015(I've tried to look for a more updated one but couldn't find anything) 60% of homes are owned, 23% are rented from the state and 16% are rented privately. So it's just another case of reactionary older homeowners.
Still that old insane socialist guy who everybody hated won Hartlepool twice. So it's looking like spending the last year alienating and kicking out the only people who will knock on doors and give out leaflets might be a bad electoral strategy for the Labour Party.
Still that old insane socialist guy who everybody hated won Hartlepool twice. So it's looking like spending the last year alienating and kicking out the only people who will knock on doors and give out leaflets might be a bad electoral strategy for the Labour Party.
The media decide the government. Without a balanced media we are screwed.
Even if they get away with it this time. For the GE it doesn't bode well. The only way to counteract our quite far right media is through active engagement with voters on a local level.
Starmer has left himself with no option other than to be a Tory lite and try to win over the UK media. Won't happen because media billionaire owners are in bed with the Tories. No Graveson 2 inquiry etc etc.
Anyone know how many more constituencies that Labour won in the last election because of the Brexit party splitting the right wing vote? I'm guessing someone has modelled this.
Yeah would be interested to know this.
Hartlepool is one of them(Makes it all the more bizarre to still purge you're activists base)
Doesn’t that show the opposite of what they asked? Labour won it despite the Brexit party taking a chunk of their votes?
So you centrist folk have joined us now in bashing the media and voters? Didn't take long
think the point is that labours vote is polling not far off the same... the conservative vote is polling not far off their previous vote plus the brexit vote ... if there had been no large brexit party vote then the conservatives might have won this in 2019
Personally i think not that many people switch direct from labour to conservative but those that did vote brexit or another party last time may well now find it easier to vote conservative this time
That said we are talking about a constituency who hung a monkey because they thought he was talkig french so how easy it is to transpose this over other constituencies is hard to say
but for sure where the brexit party vote goes to in the next general election will probably be key in several constituencies (perhaps farrage and fox will team up and form some politcal super (cnutish) party and retain a lot of the votes - but if not who these split (not voting or moving to one of the traditional big 2) will be pretty important
Yeah my bad just misread it.
Although I would guess the Brexit Party has maybe acted as a stepping stone to bringing former labour people over to the tories.
In 2015 the split was like this
Lab 35.6% - UKIP/Cons 48.9%
2017
Lab 52.5% - UKIP/Cons 45.73%
2019
Lab 37.7% - BP/Cons 54.2%
The disappearance of the BP and irrelevance of UKIP is a big problem for Labour. I'd imagine this will be repeated in at least a few more constituencies.
I agree with your conclusion, but combining the Tory/UKIP/Brexit Party votes hides half the story. Relatively few voters are switching directly between Labour and the Tories up here. The key demographic are the 10k people who voted UKIP in 2015 and Brexit Party in 2019 but who largely came in for Labour in 2017. What Labour really need to look at is why a chunk of their traditional base who came down 3:1 in favour of Labour in 2017 are now looking to come down 9:1 in favour of the Tories. The irrelevance of UKIP and absence of the Brexit Party weren't an issue for Labour in 2017.
Aside from that, Labour's creeping issue up here for the last 30 years has been demographic change in and around post-industrial areas - notably the influx of commuters and retirees and the exodus of young people. It's perverse that the Tories fecking over people who live in small towns actually helps them electorally, but that's how it is, and Labour in government only have themselves to blame for failing to address it.
I think just the four (votes and % are for the Brexit Party in 2019)
| Constituency | Region | 2016 Brexit vote (%) | Winning party in 2017 | Winning party in 2019 | Candidate | Votes | % | Position | Margin with winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley East | South Yorkshire | 70.7 | Labour | Labour | Jim Ferguson | 11,112 | 29.2 | 2nd | 8.4 |
| Barnsley Central | South Yorkshire | 68.3 | Labour | Labour | Victoria Felton | 11,233 | 30.4 | 2nd | 9.7 |
| Hartlepool | County Durham, North East | 69.6 | Labour | Labour | Richard Tice | 10,603 | 25.8 | 3rd | 11.9 |
| Doncaster North | South Yorkshire | 70.0 | Labour | Labour | Andy Stewart | 8,294 | 20.4 | 3rd | 18.3 |
| Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford | West Yorkshire | 69.3 | Labour | Labour | Deneice Florence-Jukes | 8,032 | 16.6 | 3rd | 21.3 |
| Kingston upon Hull East | East Riding of Yorkshire | 72.6 | Labour | Labour | Marten Hall | 5,764 | 17.8 | 3rd | 21.4 |
| Doncaster Central | South Yorkshire | 66.3 | Labour | Labour | Surjit Duhre | 6,842 | 16.5 | 3rd | 23.5 |
| Hemsworth | West Yorkshire | 68.1 | Labour | Labour | Waj Ali | 5,930 | 13.5 | 3rd | 24.0 |
| Rotherham | South Yorkshire | 68.3 | Labour | Labour | Paul Hague | 6,125 | 17.2 | 3rd | 24.1 |
As I have been saying for months. Brexit broke British politics. Labour will find it winning places like Hartlepool under any leader cause identity is what drives voters.
We are already down a slippery slope. Economic arguments no longer cut it.
We are already down a slippery slope. Economic arguments no longer cut it.
Thanks.
I think that this is right. There is an irony that Europe caused Labour to fall apart despite it being the issue which has riven the Tory Party for decades, but hey ho.
I think that we saw in 2017 and 2019 that many affluent, liberal constituencies with high proportions of voters with degrees are moving, perhaps decisively, away from the Tories. Corbyn's popularity (in some seats anyway!) illustrated this well in 2017 I thought.
Ones that come to mind:
Guildford
Putney
Canterbury
Kensington
Chingford and Woodford Green
Chipping Barnet
Wimbledon
London and Westminster
Cheltenham
Winchester
But 2019 saw many Labour seats just fall to the Tories, whilst many Tories just hung on to their seats. The 'red wall' moved to the Tories far more than these seats moved away from them.
So I guess my open questions are:
- will the Tories be able to hold on to all their seats or will 2023 see them lose these more metropolitan, liberal seats (I never count them out to pull off the impossible)
- excluding Scotland, are there enough liberal seats in England and Wales for Labour to form any sort of coalition government if the red wall is lost? (I doubt this sadly)
Hehe.So you centrist folk have joined us now in bashing the media and voters? Didn't take long
Too true. Sad. Maddening. But true. British people are broken.
I am of the view that for some obscure reason, it has become 'trendy' to vote Tory. And a load of traditional Labour voters are or have changed to Tory for that reason. Boris seems to have a level of charisma; his hair, the way he talks and even the fact that he is a bit unconventional and gets away with things like lying and generally breaking the rules. He is seen as someone who gets things done no matter right or wrong.
Starmer on the other hand lacks charisma, is very conventional and is seen as too honest and mainstream.
That is a reflection of current society. Yes he makes loads of mistakes. But whether Brexit or vaccines, never mind the quality, feel the width.
I think you’re ace.
But I disagree with every aspect of this. Not because you’re necessarily wrong. But the thought of you being right upsets me.
This country is truly broken.
Elections 2021: Who (NOT) To Vote For
For the Tories to be coming more popular with the voters defies logic. So there has to be a specific reason.
The only consolation is that politics are cyclic. Without Boris, the Tories are nothing. I just hope that he looses interest and decides to try something else.
And you are the one who is Ace, not me. But thanks anyway.
The Tories became more popular due to Brexit and their willingness to see it through. Labour dithered and in many constituencies Labour MPs voted against the wishes of their leave voting constituents which gave the Tories loads of ammo to fire. I am a remainer and a Labour part member so not chucking rocks, just telling it how I see it.
The Tories got very lucky with the vaccines and are now making political hay out of that despite the absolute shitshow they have made out of the covid crisis and brexit.
My only hope is that once the dust settles and we have a covid inquiry then their appeal will begin to wane.