US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Jaz, you didn't even put a popular vote estimate in there. Disappointing.
 


This is awesome to me, he's rapping about stashing cocaine in his boot and escaping a court case at a Presidential Rally.
 
Ubik said:
Jaz, you didn't even put a popular vote estimate in there. Disappointing.
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My heart tells me that it will be very tight, and Romney could sneak it.

But I think you would have to pretty dumb to go again the overwealming direction of the polls suggesting Obama will get a popular victory by around 1%-2%
 
Fair guess. I'm still going with 332, was wavering a bit on Florida but Gravis just came out with a tie, so in the words of every Liverpool fan every August, It's On. 2.5 in the popular vote.
 
I'm a pessimist. So I have Obama winning with 294.

Romney taking CO, FL and NC.

I just don't see Florida coming for Obama. Dems have huge problems winning there. Even in the landslide of 08 they only managed to win by 2 points.
 
Nate Silver's big claim to fame is predicting 49 out of the 50 states in 2008. Let's see how many here can equal or even better it. Swing states underlined to make it easier for copy-pasters to switch my answers if they want.

Alabama - Romney
Alaska - Romney
Arizona - Romney
Arkansas - Romney
California - Obama
Colorado - Obama
Connecticut - Obama
Delaware - Obama
District of Columbia - Obama
Florida - Romney
Georgia - Romney
Hawaii - Obama
Idaho - Romney
Illinois - Obama
Indiana - Romney
Iowa - Obama
Kansas - Romney
Kentucky - Romney
Louisiana - Romney
Maine - Obama (bonus marks: 2 districts - both Obama)
Maryland - Obama
Massachusetts - Obama
Michigan - Obama
Minnesota - Obama
Mississippi - Romney
Missouri - Romney
Montana - Romney
Nebraska - Romney (bonus marks: 3 districts - all Romney)
Nevada - Obama
New Hampshire - Obama
New Jersey - Obama
New Mexico - Obama
New York - Obama
North Carolina - Romney
North Dakota - Romney
Ohio - Obama
Oklahoma - Romney
Oregon - Obama
Pennsylvania - Obama
Rhode Island - Obama
South Carolina - Romney
South Dakota - Romney
Tennessee - Romney
Texas - Romney
Utah - Romney
Vermont - Obama
Virginia - Obama
Washington - Obama
West Virginia - Romney
Wisconsin - Obama
Wyoming - Romney

Bonuses:

Total Electoral Votes:
Obama - 303
Romney - 225

Total Popular Vote:
Obama - 50.4%
Romney - 48.7%
 
The thing is, Silver himself has pointed out that calling it the day of the election isn't that impressive. It's how you see it going months before that sets good forecasters apart.

By the way, if any of were intending to vote for Obama... what about the chip?
 
I'm aware of that. But for almost every interview it's what he's introduced with. That's pretty much the point, I'm seeing how many of us can match or beat it.
 
From Jeff Greenfield

The candidates have been at this for years; both President Obama and Mitt Romney began running for the presidency six years ago. They’ve made speeches, answered (or evaded) questions and raised billions to convince you of their worth—or the other guy’s worthlessness.

The media have been covering their every move and word, even when the candidates thought they weren’t. (Can you say, “Cling to their religion and guns”? “47 percent”?) The coverage has been slanted, scrupulously fair, superficial, in-depth, misleading, dead-on. With the flip of a page or the click of a mouse, you have been able to find out every conceivable piece of information you might want on their backgrounds, families, values, experience, positions taken, positions abandoned, promises made, promises broken, and the music on their iPods.

And after all this time, you’re still trying to make up your minds. The overwhelmingly likely reason is this: You have the reasoning power of a baked potato.
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:lol:
 
I'm in the 303 boat too. Would be interesting to see a "landslide" win like that for obama and a loss for the popular vote. Scrap interesting, it will be hilarious to tune into faux news the second it looks that way.
 
Sarah Palin endorsed Romney on Facebook. Had a read of the comments. Truly frightening. Mostly along the lines of "praying to the LORD jesus christ for a romny landslide. obama is a muslim terrorist who wants to put CHIPS in our arms! god will grant us victory and free us from the communist obummer. amen."

Odds on them declaring Jesus a RINO by the end of play tomorrow?
 
I've not been getting why people are so keen to debunk the "Sandy halted Romney's momentum" myth. This is an amazing chance to make the religious nuts think God's a Democrat.
 
Ubik said:
I've not been getting why people are so keen to debunk the "Sandy halted Romney's momentum" myth. This is an amazing chance to make the religious nuts think God's a Democrat.
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So that's why he sent a devastating hurricane to largely Democratic areas.. ;)
 
Plech's final Pessimistic Prediction:

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BUT there are serious anomalies / recounts in Ohio, FA, VA, or maybe somewhere more surprising like IA or PA.

There ensues the biggest clusterfeck since segregation, at the end of which it ends up before the Supreme Court, with huge demos/fighting on the streets. It comes down to Roberts having to decide again whether he wants to sacrifice the Court's legitimacy to get a conservative government.
 
Saliph said:
So that's why he sent a devastating hurricane to largely Democratic areas.. ;)
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You're giving their higher faculties too much credit!

Then again, maybe he's aiming for Christie 2016?
 
Maplered said:
Obama will have a contract put on him by the NRA
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That has crossed my mind as well. Far-right people in America will go absolutely batshit if he wins again, and someone could well take it over the line.
 
Excal said:
I routinely tell unsolicited callers to go to Wang, except replace "to" with "suck on my".
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:lol:

There's a great book by Douglas Adams and John lloyd called The Meaning of Liff, in which they give dictionary definitions to obscure place-names. The definitions are often convoluted and clever, but there's one that cracked me up with its concise literalness:

Wetwang [n] - a moist penis.

Feeky_Magee said:
Odds on them declaring Jesus a RINO by the end of play tomorrow?
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:lol:
 
Red Dreams going all Dick Morris on us. No way NC goes Dem. I'll be very impressed if you called that right.
 
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