Yeah the 27th is missing for me too, but that's because its now the 28th where I am and still the 27th in NY. The new VA - Gravis and Washington Post polls aren't incorporated into his Virginia prediction.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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Yeah the 27th is missing for me too, but that's because its now the 28th where I am and still the 27th in NY. The new VA - Gravis and Washington Post polls aren't incorporated into his Virginia prediction.
Yup that's a really good article (think I actually linked it a few pages back, but good to see it brought up again). The ground strategy's especially worthwhile for Obama because it's not a tactic the GOP can just copy, it's designed to address a traditional Democrat weakness - voter propensity. That doesn't stop them (Repubs) from trying, of course, and they're getting better figures than 08 in early voting, but that doesn't help much if most of those people would vote anyway.
Obama is a little late but...
The Daily Show... Romney flip-flopper edition
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/tue-october-23-2012-gerard-butler
http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/tue-october-23-2012-gerard-butler
It will be really interestin , how the dems will react if Romney wins the popular and loses the EV.
Probably the same thing the GOP did in 2000.... Remind the losing side that the system works on electoral votes.
Payback is a bitch
That much is obvious, there'd be a lot of laughing and there'd probably be a RAWK-watch-like thread here dedicated to compiling the reactions of the right.
What's less certain is what the reaction would be like if somehow Obama won the PV and lost the EC
(didn't some people predict in 00 that it would happen the other way round as well?)It's practically impossible for Obama to win the electoral vote and lose the popular vote, isn't it?
Yeah but that doesn't stop me worrying. I keep reading that people predicted that Bush would do the opposite of what actually happened in 00 and it's making me paranoid, even if that election was far more of a toss-up.
Its unlikely, but not without precedent. Depends how close the voting day turnout is.
About 50% of the voting population is not the entire landscape.
That said, it's not necessarily a "Bush" it's the fecking neo-cons behind the man that are the biggest problem/worry, and exactly what will run the show if Romney pulls this off or the next GOP candidate wins in 2016.
Debatable. They could cite Romney wasn't "right enough" and go more hardcore in 2016 while bitching and moaning and fueling the anti-liberal agenda to the media and businessman for the next four years. It's like claiming a church clergy will change its direction after something drastic - not likely, they just go further to the other side of the scale (ex: Catholic church).
Sometimes I catch a local radio feed (107.5 The Patriot) in Middle Georgia in the evening and the other day it was about early voting and whatnot. The host, Lars Larson, a right-wing ideological nut, claimed that all this is because of Democrats stealing elections and encouraging voter fraud. He even claimed that illegals and minorities will vote multiple times for Obama, and that voters can use dead people as alias. His callers were all right-wing sheeple just drinking the juice. Really aggravating to hear of such disinformation and blatant lies.
Another problem that has really pissed me off. The Benzaghi attack - the right are doing everything possible to blame Obama. Yet there was no credit allowed for Obama for the killing of Bin Laden ("It was the SEALS!"), getting the military out of Iraq ("That timetable was set years ago by Bush!"), how the rest of the world actually likes us again at least a little bit ("Who cares what far'ners think?", and the fact he's practically destroyed Al Qaeda ("The military and CIA get that credit!").
The hypocrisy is beyond sane.
Another problem that has really pissed me off. The Benzaghi attack - the right are doing everything possible to blame Obama. Yet there was no credit allowed for Obama for the killing of Bin Laden ("It was the SEALS!"), getting the military out of Iraq ("That timetable was set years ago by Bush!"), how the rest of the world actually likes us again at least a little bit ("Who cares what far'ners think?", and the fact he's practically destroyed Al Qaeda ("The military and CIA get that credit!").
The hypocrisy is beyond sane.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109257/does-romneys-florida-lead-hinge-hispanics
Nate II speculates that pollsters may be under-weighting Florida's non-Cuban Hispanics. Using his numbers and a quick Google search for Florida census info, there's a case to be made that the margin should be adjusted by 2.5% in Obama's favour.
Nate I currently has the poll average at 1.2 to Romney, Mark Blumenthal at HuffPost Pollster has it tied, Votamatic has Romney up by 0.8% and just so that Jaz doesn't feel left out, RCP has Romney up 1.9%.
Make of that what ye will.
Nate II speculates that pollsters may be under-weighting Florida's non-Cuban Hispanics. Using his numbers and a quick Google search for Florida census info, there's a case to be made that the margin should be adjusted by 2.5% in Obama's favour.
Nate I currently has the poll average at 1.2 to Romney, Mark Blumenthal at HuffPost Pollster has it tied, Votamatic has Romney up by 0.8% and just so that Jaz doesn't feel left out, RCP has Romney up 1.9%.
Make of that what ye will.
Interesting post in the RAWK Meltdown thread, sounds like the current Republican party.
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Interesting. Sounds like how the Republican party has completely blinded its supporting base to believe in a movement and has outcast both at political level and support level those that do not follow a far right ideology. This is going to be quoted in the US Presidential thread. Gracias!
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave
Thoughts?
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Interesting. Sounds like how the Republican party has completely blinded its supporting base to believe in a movement and has outcast both at political level and support level those that do not follow a far right ideology. This is going to be quoted in the US Presidential thread. Gracias!
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave
Thoughts?
The tea party are certainly a delusional bunch, and I shall be engaging in a lot of shadenfreude should Obama win.
Introduces another layer of uncertainty without doubt, and I struggle to see how Romney could be winning the Hispanic vote in some of those polls, given the ~40 point deficit nationwide. The CNN exit poll last time round had Obama's national Hispanic lead at 36 points, with the Florida equivalent being 15 points.
Introduces another layer of uncertainty without doubt, and I struggle to see how Romney could be winning the Hispanic vote in some of those polls, given the ~40 point deficit nationwide. The CNN exit poll last time round had Obama's national Hispanic lead at 36 points, with the Florida equivalent being 15 points.
Indeed.
Confirmation bias
Conservative Epistemic Closure
The Doc Fix Myth And The Right's Misinformation Feedback Loop / The Conservative Closed Misinformation Feedback Loop Cont'd
Most (?) Florida Hispanics are Cubans who tend to be more right-wing than Mexicans etc because they fled/are descended from those who fled Castro.
To be fair, exit polls in 2004 showed Kerry winning Ohio and a bunch of other states. But with that caveat, it does seem as if pre-election polling could be especially unreliable this year, both with regard to non-cell phone households and the demographic make-up of the electorate. If non-white voters turn out at 28% as Ruy Teixeira believes, Obama may well win at a canter. Here;s hoping!
According to the link I posted, only 48%, but Romey's winning them by 8%. Obama wins non-Cubans by 40 points.
One of those such descended, is that lovely fella Marco Rubio, whose grand-parents were so prescient, they fled to the US fearing what havoc Castro would wreak... in 1955.
What are the chances of Hurricane Sandy being the October Surprise (despite not actually being a surprise)?
John Sides says natural disasters tend to get blamed on incumbents unless they're seen to be particularly pro-active.
John Sides says natural disasters tend to get blamed on incumbents unless they're seen to be particularly pro-active.
I'm totally convinced that Obama is going to win.
The Early voting should be the key decisive factor for him.
The Early voting should be the key decisive factor for him.
Then you've got the extra added uncertainty of what the actual turnout of the electorate will be, given that the ex-Cuban community tend to be more reliable. Early voting seems to be going well for Obama there too though.
On another note, just watched a BBC news report about the election and the hurricane, the reporter mentioned worries that the storm "might dampen Romney's new found momentum". feck sake.
2 PPP Polls.
OH Obama 51 Romney 47
NH Obama 49 Romney 47
OH Obama 51 Romney 47
NH Obama 49 Romney 47
Obama is leading in all swing states except FL and NC. No new polls there. But my gut feel is he is moving in those states too.
Gravis have him up by 1 in Ohio too, so fair to say he's definitely leading there.
My gut feeling suggests that the polls are currently useless. It's too close to the polls, some of these are not factoring in early voting.
It's about half, but the point the writer of the linked article was making, (and I don't have the faintest if it's correct or not,) is that while pollsters will make sure to weight the people they poll who identify as Hispanic correctly, they don't get into the specifics of Cuban vs non-Cuban Hispanics, so if their polling is oversampling Cubans relative to non-Cubans, it's going to move the results towards Romney because Republicans do far better with Cubans than they do with other Hispanics.
Not really, early voters get polled and added to the total the same way as if they hadn't voted
Not really.
Because some of these polls are not considering early voting. This is slightly playing up in "likelihood" of voting, direction of bias is unclear. There's no reason to assume that a person who has already voted will come up as "certain to vote" and not end up the unlikely to vote bracket based on demographics or response. Equally, I sometimes wonder how much people are double-voting when polled.
Anyway point is, most of these polls are within MOE. Though I suspect that the polls are underestimating Obama in some states.
I'd have thought the early voting would probably result in a shift in likely voter results towards Obama, because their campaign strategy is heavily based on getting unlikely voters into polling booths. It's making the results a truer picture of the states, rather than the educated guesses behind a pollsters likely voter screen, no?
On a related note, there is apparently some confusion over how to classify White Hispanics, which further skews some pollsters weightage.
So how does this make polls closer to the election less accurate than polls two months before?
You what?
As Ubik points out, this is why polls closest to the election day are the most accurate. Hell, even Rasmussen gets good numbers on the day of the election.
Yeah.
So more unlikely voters, actually voting. These unlikely voters usually more democrat than republican (in some states). The pollsters are underestimating this number, and probably underestimating Obama's numbers.
Those polls that do consider early voting have another problem of people not wanting to declare who they voted for, or gaming the poll, by saying they are likely to vote, but already have.
Take Ohio, The cincy enquirer poll (20% have said they voted), purple is syaing 26%, SurveyUSA 26%, Suffolk 20%.
It's all over the shop.
This is from the link Plechazunga posted above.
...at which point they'll be washed out to sea.
Tomorrow's Fox News lead story (not really)-
Pat Robertson: God punishes those who vote for Obama
Oh deary me
That is mind bogglingly disgusting. Made by the people at www.winningourfuture.com.
What do they think about politics today?
They want to keep politicians from expanding government power beyond it's constitutional rights.
The last hope on earth? Did I miss a big news story?
That's the Gingrich super-pac isn't it? Explains a lot.
Heh, and the new PPP says 36% have. Nate Cohn (aka Nate II) ventured that some might say they've voted if they've filled out an absentee ballot but not submitted yet, could account for some of the discrepancies. But yeah, it's a big variable that pollsters can't quite get a handle on yet, it seems.
Heh, and the new PPP says 36% have. Nate Cohn (aka Nate II) ventured that some might say they've voted if they've filled out an absentee ballot but not submitted yet, could account for some of the discrepancies. But yeah, it's a big variable that pollsters can't quite get a handle on yet, it seems.
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