That's a bit generous, isn't it? Calling them pundits, I mean.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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That's a bit generous, isn't it? Calling them pundits, I mean.
Who the feck is Dr Wang?
Big swinging dick who reckons it's 1/9 or better for Obama (even Red Dreams only had it 1/5 tho' that was 6 weeks ago to be fair).
http://election.princeton.edu/ Wang up.
I fear what would happen if he found out about quantum mechanics.
We live in a world where Alan Shearer is a highly paid pundit, we have to accept that the word retains no inference of worthwhile insight.
I fear what would happen if he found out about quantum mechanics.
We live in a world where Alan Shearer is a highly paid pundit, we have to accept that the word retains no inference of worthwhile insight.
probably better than Nate Silver
http://election.princeton.edu/
That's the third time I post this link in this thread !!
Nah, he's not a big swinging anything. He's a neuroscientist with a rather gentle line in humour, who moonlights as the US's most accurate poll-analyst at this blog:
http://election.princeton.edu/
EDIT: Or Avatar's link
http://election.princeton.edu/
EDIT: Or Avatar's link
I have a less gentle line in humour too.
It wasn't funny, though.
Do we all have to adopt the Republican manicheanism that pepole who care about facts are 'left-wingers'? No? Didn't think so, too.
He was with Nate on NPR a week or 2 ago. Nate gave Obama a 7:3 chance of winning. Sam gave him a 9 :1 !!
on his blog he compares how he did compared to Nate and electoral vote 4 yrs ago ,plus his predictions in 2004 : http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/11/post-election-evaluation-part-2/
By the way, a former volunteer in Obama's campaign 4 yrs ago is the one who introduced me to Wang's blog. She told me literally " This blog is infallible , He's more accurate than Nate " .
on his blog he compares how he did compared to Nate and electoral vote 4 yrs ago ,plus his predictions in 2004 : http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/11/post-election-evaluation-part-2/
By the way, a former volunteer in Obama's campaign 4 yrs ago is the one who introduced me to Wang's blog. She told me literally " This blog is infallible , He's more accurate than Nate " .
I don't get that. He says that Nate and himself both missed Indiana, and got the other ones right, and yet Wang missed by 1 EV and Nate 18.5.
Also, this guy seems to suck at math. 365 minus 348.5 is 16.5 - not 18.5.
'kin rookie.
Also, this guy seems to suck at math. 365 minus 348.5 is 16.5 - not 18.5.
'kin rookie.
From the comments:
Paul // Nov 6, 2008 at 11:42 am
To add to the chorus: well done!
Something else worth trumpeting is your excellent graph of likely outcomes. You may not have called IN — but the beauty of the meta-analysis is that it doesn’t just bet on a single likely outcome!
Instead, it gives a picture of the likelihood of ALL possible outcomes. And a glance at the distribution tells us that the actual outcome was indeed a likely one.
Paul // Nov 6, 2008 at 11:42 am
To add to the chorus: well done!
Something else worth trumpeting is your excellent graph of likely outcomes. You may not have called IN — but the beauty of the meta-analysis is that it doesn’t just bet on a single likely outcome!
Instead, it gives a picture of the likelihood of ALL possible outcomes. And a glance at the distribution tells us that the actual outcome was indeed a likely one.
This hurricane is surely good news for Romney. Sure, Obama might get to look presidential, but continuing status quo until polling day means a likely Obama victory anyway.
Whereas Romney's best case scenario is loads of death and damage, a real or perceived cock-up, and/or an effect on turnout, in which case he has a great chance.
Whereas Romney's best case scenario is loads of death and damage, a real or perceived cock-up, and/or an effect on turnout, in which case he has a great chance.
GOP will spin this as a cock-up no matter what. Just like they've tried to do with Benghazi-"gate".
What the hell are you on about man? it's not even an un-post-tropical storm now. Stop panicking.
*Calms the feck down for half an hour*
this storm is very good for Obama politically. Obama excels in being calm and in command.
Romney wanted to get rid of FEMA and privatize these sort of Emergency responses...
Romney wanted to get rid of FEMA and privatize these sort of Emergency responses...
I got Obama's electoral Votes exact...but I missed IN too..I thought he would win Missouri. But since both those states have the same EVs, I still got the final total correct.
I said 332...am sticking with that...but I would be happy if it ended up 347.
Is there any particular swing state that on election night has a habit of calling their results first or early on?
They're not supposed to announce results till polling in the Pacific states is over. Will be a long night for sure.
Always?
Yep, done it a few times over the last few years and ALWAYS end up right where she is.
Virgil Goode's a bit of an arse, I'm guessing?
Makes sense, so somewhere on the eastern seaboard that doesn't need a recount then. If New Hampshire comes in Romney that's going to be a rough night.
On the flip side, if any one of Florida, Virginia or Ohio come in for Obama, he's home and hosed.
EDIT: A recount in any one of those will be a bitch and half. I think for Ohio, it's mandatory if the margin is less than 0.5%. Not sure about the other two.
EDIT: A recount in any one of those will be a bitch and half. I think for Ohio, it's mandatory if the margin is less than 0.5%. Not sure about the other two.
CNN poll , Florida: TIE
Virgil Goode is worse than Hitler according to that compass test.
Jill Stein
Jill Stein
Obama will win FL,VA....and NC
RD you predicted 332 about 10 posts ago
I'm treating this like a United match/close season, if it's possible to do it the hard way and give me several heart attacks along the way, it will be.
I'm treating this like a United match/close season, if it's possible to do it the hard way and give me several heart attacks along the way, it will be.
RD you predicted 332 about 10 posts ago
I'm treating this like a United match/close season, if it's possible to do it the hard way and give me several heart attacks along the way, it will be.
I know I did.....I'm stretching for NC
simply because there are hundreds of thousands more registered Democratic voters there...And in NC you can register and vote same day.
in 2008 NC came in for Obama before Virginia.
If either of these states come in for Obama, you can rest assured Obama will be re-elected.
btw, they call the states as they come...not wait for the Western States.
The Western States of CA, WA and OR are just a formality.
Case of "do you want a businessman to be in-charge of the country other than for the economy?"
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...kes-early-lead-in-hurricane-world-series.html
I know I did.....I'm stretching for NC
simply because there are hundreds of thousands more registered Democratic voters there...And in NC you can register and vote same day.
in 2008 NC came in for Obama before Virginia.
If either of these states come in for Obama, you can rest assured Obama will be re-elected.
btw, they call the states as they come...not wait for the Western States.
The Western States of CA, WA and OR are just a formality.
Wow really? Wasn't it the closest result, bar Missouri? I was watching along at the time but was supposed to be revising for something the next day so my memory of the night's hazy.
North Carolina's a weird one, seems to have barely moved in the polls even with all the bouncing going on. Fairly ridiculous that Obama's even got half a chance there.
Do you mean the networks calling it based on exit polling - or the precincts reporting their numbers? Because in the 3 or 4 closest ones, exit polling will be useless.
Debate 1 certainly fits that description
Exactly! It's going to go down in my head post-election either as the 1-0 to Wigan last season or the 4-1 against Liverpool in 09.
You lie, those never happened!
Precincts. when they call..it is called.
thats the way I remember it. I remember that Virginia came in much later.
forget the polls at this stage mate...they are really pointless.
Its all ground game.
FL/VA/NC are all close... OH is Obama's but Romney cannot give up on it.. he just has to try..lie whatever. Obama just has a much superior GOTV...and also there are simply more registered Democratic voters in all these states.
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