US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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sglowrider said:
It will happen... or at least one major leg/foundation of the US economy will spur or at least keep the economy moving forward despite major headwinds in Europe and China -- according to some of the non-partisan economist have said that whoever gets elected will benefit from Obama's past 4 years.
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Yes, but it's such a laughably back of the envelope calculus, I'm not sure how seriously to take it. As I understand it, they are basically estimating 3 jobs added for every housing unit constructed - so 1 million units a year gives you 3 million jobs, or 12 million over four.

Given that September's performance was already at the rate of 872,000 units (annualized), and a jump of 15% over August, and the annualized growth rate of the economy for the quarter was 2% according to a link posted up thread by MJS, they aren't really predicting a huge growth for the overall economy, something like 2.5% for 2013.

At that rate, full employment even for college graduates is a good few years away, never mind lower down the educational ladder. A second stimulus, as well as a jobs bill are both vital to meaningful growth.
 
radd said:
Yes, but it's such a laughably back of the envelope calculus, I'm not sure how seriously to take it. As I understand it, they are basically estimating 3 jobs added for every housing unit constructed - so 1 million units a year gives you 3 million jobs, or 12 million over four.

Given that September's performance was already at the rate of 872,000 units (annualized), and a jump of 15% over August, and the annualized growth rate of the economy for the quarter was 2% according to a link posted up thread by MJS, they aren't really predicting a huge growth for the overall economy, something like 2.5% for 2013.

At that rate, full employment even for college graduates is a good few years away, never mind lower down the educational ladder. A second stimulus, as well as a jobs bill are both vital to meaningful growth.
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As bad as the "great recession" was, it was always expected that the economy would take up to 6 years to recover. There is historical statistical evidence of this for most major recessions, never mind a "great" one as the one we had faced a few years back.
 
That much is true and what makes this a special case is the depth of the financial crisis. However, while voters might be somewhat sympathetic to those circumstances four years after the event, they might not be quite as patient eight years on, and their heads will begin to be turned by the fantasyland economics of the insane right wing. A good number of them will be fresh college graduates struggling to make a living wage, who could conceivably become Repub voters for life, or at least a considerable length of time. It is simply not good politics to allow a minority party to control the agenda.

The filibuster has to be suspended, and a second stimulus passed, especially given that economies in Europe are likely to be in worse shape for a long time. The sequestration coming into effect also gives Obama far more power in negotiations with Congress, he will have to use it to maximum benefit and extract all such concessions. The economy can only be boosted by domestic consumption and the tools to do that are available. It will take great political will and courage to do all of these, but the payoff could be far greater.
 
Ramshock said:
MJS If Muffin the Mule was running against Obama you would say Obama was in big trouble ffs.

Listen I think two Bush's was enough for one country to handle, having a third president from the same family would be just ridiculous.
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You're right about this year, the only reason he's not a credible candidate is because of his last name. But public memory being what it is, he would have to be considered a big threat in 2016.
 
Ramshock said:
MJS If Muffin the Mule was running against Obama you would say Obama was in big trouble ffs.

Listen I think two Bush's was enough for one country to handle, having a third president from the same family would be just ridiculous.
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Well we have the human equivalent of muffin the mule running against Obama and he has a lead the popular vote. The GOP nominated a socially incompetent unlikable twat and he is making a race of it. That is fecking sad and a when you consider the eight years that proceeded it.

Jeb is a much more likeable guy and a hell of lot nearer the center than Mittens.
 
Jaz said:
Bleak polls for Romney.

Down in Co, Down in Va, Down in Ohio.
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Predicted electoral college votes creeping back upto pre-debate numbers.

The Obama camp has done a great job of painting Romney as the flip-flopper he is over the last 3 weeks.
 
Is it possible there may be a 3rd party in the States? If the Republicans decide to go too far to the middle could the loony right start their own party and run for President? If that happens I can see the Democrats winning for a long time unless they go too far to the left and someone mops up all of the middle.
 
The winner takes all system makes it practically impossible for any third party to be successfull for a very long time, and thus makes it practically impossible that it will even get off the ground in the first place.

Ross Perot got 18.9% of the vote in 1992, nearly twenty million votes, and he got zero electoral votes.
 
There's not really room in the US electorate for a third party to break through, because the only way for a new movement not to be subsumed into one of the two parties is for it to grow from the middle (where there isn't a ton of room to begin with) and takes roughly equal sized chunks out of both parties, so that neither gets a clear advantage.

What people forget about the "Tea Party" is that it's not this grassroots movement that came out of nowhere. It was funded by elements within the power brokers of the Republican party, stoked by Fox News, and exists solely to promote the Republican party's success. The notion that it could somehow flee the Republican party is a bit ludicrous, because its backers have no intention of doing so, and because the Republican Party simply cannot move any farther to the right and still retain any hopes of winning a majority.
 
Excal said:
There's not really room in the US electorate for a third party to break through, because the only way for a new movement not to be subsumed into one of the two parties is for it to grow from the middle (where there isn't a ton of room to begin with) and takes roughly equal sized chunks out of both parties, so that neither gets a clear advantage.
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About time for the Wobblies to make a comeback.
 
CheadleBeagle said:
Is it possible there may be a 3rd party in the States? If the Republicans decide to go too far to the middle could the loony right start their own party and run for President? If that happens I can see the Democrats winning for a long time unless they go too far to the left and someone mops up all of the middle.
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The 'checks and balances' system is set up to force consensus decision-making and governance from the middle. In such a system, the raison d'etre of the extreme right movement is to force the middle to shift ever rightward, because ultimately it exists to serve the interests of Big Business (being born out of opposition to the New Deal and with an objective of taking the country back to the 1880s, an era of pre-Progressive politics). Without a Republican party to hijack and a national consensus to shape, the Tea Party has no political value.

The monster, predictably has taken on a life of its own, but this is in fact not the craziest it has been either. The earlier avatar, the John Birch Society, accused Eisenhower of being a Communist. Unfortunately for it, the intellectual father of movement conservatism, William Buckley, was still around to relegate it to the fringe. Today's nutters simply have no one of sufficient stature to keep them in check.
 
Ramshock said:
MJS If Muffin the Mule was running against Obama you would say Obama was in big trouble ffs.

Listen I think two Bush's was enough for one country to handle, having a third president from the same family would be just ridiculous.
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Also, when does a democracy become a dynasty?

There's a reason a president can only serve two terms, I would suggest that should include their relatives as well. Of whatever political colour, note the Clintons aren't finished yet.
 
I think Plech was referring to FDR being Teddy's cousin.

EDIT Slash that was Teddy's son, but I think they were related by birth too.
 
Red Dreams said:


saw this ad and I liked it. did not know who the cute kid was until my daughter told me.

Then I heard the conservatives were having a fit about the ad...and I felt reassured.
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Of course... The ad playing on the idea of a young white girl being de-flowered by a black guy was sure to cause furore.
 
Poll!

Obama up 51-47 in Virginia according to the Washington Post.

Can't read too much into it but it's the second to give a 4+ point lead in the last few days and early voting is going quite well.
 
Ubik said:
Poll!

Obama up 51-47 in Virginia according to the Washington Post.

Can't read too much into it but it's the second to give a 4+ point lead in the last few days and early voting is going quite well.
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The GOTV drives are going even better than 2008 by all accounts in all swing states.

Confident VA will go for Obama.

NC although a true toss up has had a great GOTV effort.

Florida just started voting... must see what the GOTV reports they get from there.
 
Nevada's going well also, think Iowa is as well but haven't seen an update in a couple of days. Mixed reports from Ohio but the polls tell us who's leading there.

This is really bizarre - http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...mney-offers-a-fresh-economic-vision?Frontpage - check out their history of endorsements: Dems all the way back till Nixon in 72. Did a request for an interview to be off-the-record really annoy them that bad?
 
Ubik said:
Nevada's going well also, think Iowa is as well but haven't seen an update in a couple of days. Mixed reports from Ohio but the polls tell us who's leading there.

This is really bizarre - http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...mney-offers-a-fresh-economic-vision?Frontpage - check out their history of endorsements: Dems all the way back till Nixon in 72. Did a request for an interview to be off-the-record really annoy them that bad?
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IA is a done deal for Obama. The Des Moines Register just lost credibility. Who the heck cares.

OH is going for Obama no doubt...thats why Romney is looking at WI.

game is really up for him.

The new right wing narrative is to build up the popular vote...just look at the polls in the 'Confederacy'. That way they can delegitimize Obama's second term..saying he lost the popular vote.

Though tbh I think Obama will win both the popular and EV.
 
Red Dreams said:
IA is a done deal for Obama. The Des Moines Register just lost credibility. Who the heck cares.

OH is going for Obama no doubt...thats why Romney is looking at WI.

game is really up for him.

The new right wing narrative is to build up the popular vote...just look at the polls in the 'Confederacy'. That way they can delegitimize Obama's second term..saying he lost the popular vote.

Though tbh I think Obama will win both the popular and EV.
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You can be assured the Righties will spend the next four years delegitimizing him irrespective of whether or not he carries the popular vote.
 
I think Obama will win all the tipping point states, Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and whatever else. 538s numbers are looking pretty good for the president, and I think his turnout will beat the polls by a few % points.
 
There have been loads of polls released in the past two days.Silver needs to update his stats on the State-by-State column on the right of his page.
 
Raoul said:
You can be assured the Righties will spend the next four years delegitimizing him irrespective of whether or not he carries the popular vote.
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yup...heck they would not want another black guy getting 'ideas'.

when this election is over there will be some interesting stats coming out that will be poured over....I mean more than even the previous one.
 
Raoul said:
There have been loads of polls released in the past two days.Silver needs to update his stats on the State-by-State column on the right of his page.
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Only missing the ones published today, isn't he?

I think Florida's still in Romney's column as well, although not by as much as will be comfortable for him.
 
Ubik said:
Only missing the ones published today, isn't he?

I think Florida's still in Romney's column as well, although not by as much as will be comfortable for him.
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He's missing the ones published on the 26th and 27th on the state by state projections.
 
Raoul said:
He's missing the ones published on the 26th and 27th on the state by state projections.
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Pretty sure the date listed is the final day of data in that poll, and they're usually published the day after, so it should only be stuff from the 26th that's missing which'll turn up when he runs the model again.
 
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