US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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I sort of think Obama would actually prefer to run against him than Herman Cain.
 
Red Dreams said:
Turnout will be key.
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Which is often driven by enthusiasm. In 2008 Obama rode the wave of Hope and Change which is why the margin so so large. Neither candidate is exactly inspiring the electorate this time around. Maybe turnout will be lowish or moderate.
 
Kaos said:
I honestly think Ron Paul would have been the GOP's best chance of toppling Obama. He's got a strong and consistent support base, his libertarianism is very popular amongst independents and furthermore, he'll probably nick quite a few democrat votes with his firm anti-war stance. Even the nutters at the Tea Party seem to like him (or his son at the very least).
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Probably because you agree with his anti-interventionist foreign policy rhetoric. In reality, he wouldn't have a snowballs chance in hell against Obama. In fact, most of the remaining ship of GOP fools, would stand a better chance against Obama than Paul. Certainly Perry, Gingrich, Santorum would fare better in a general election, because they represent far more of the GOP base than Paul, who is basically one of those candidates who knows he doesn't have a chance of getting elected, but still persists in running to get his ideas into the national discourse. Nader and Perot played similar roles in past elections.
 
Kaos said:
Its a toss up really as to whether the moderates he'll lose to domestic cuts would be more significant than the anti-war, pro-liberty crowd he'll pick up from the dems/indies.

I certainly think he would have been the candidate Obama would have least fancied going up against. Having to defend his stance on The Patriot Act, Gitmo and the drone attacks would have been awkward...especially in the ironic context of having to debate it with a Republican.
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As mjs said, people in the states aren't interested in the Patriot Act, Gitmo, and the Drone program. They're not even remotely on the radar during this election cycle.
 
Actually if Gitmo and the Drone program were major issues the candidate that supported them both would win. That is probably why Obama back tracked on his 2008 stance on Gitmo and the reason he has increased the drone program substantially.
 
Holy cow, Ron Paul nutter in the thread!

The guy is a loon, he would never win, I would vote for a Turkey instead of Paul.
 
mjs020294 said:
No it wouldn't because Americans are not particularity interested in any of those polices/subjects.
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No in the grand scheme of things they wouldnt, but there's a still a substantial lefty base that have felt betrayed by Obama's stance on those policies. Its possible they would have flocked to Paul in a hypothetical election.
 
mjs020294 said:
Actually if Gitmo and the Drone program were major issues the candidate that supported them both would win. That is probably why Obama back tracked on his 2008 stance on Gitmo and the reason he has increased the drone program substantially.
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I suspect the little detail that the NDAA allows the president to target US citizens with drones within the US wouldn't be quite so popular.
 
Ramshock said:
NC might be a stretch for Obama this go around, Florida is key though and he should concentrate on it in the run up. I think the latino vote will help him carry it.
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2 latest national polls have Obama ahead. Surprise surprise...they are not Rasmussen.

...which means Obama is well in this.

I agree on the Latino vote. In 2010 they took a lot of pollsters by surprise. Reid and several Democrats out west won because of it.

look at Arizona...a state that is underpolled. may be a surprise there...

Florida is still well in play.
 
The thing about Florida though is that it if Obama wins it, he's highly likely to have also won a bunch of other states like Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, meaning he's also highly likely to be over 270 before Florida even comes into it. It seems most useful as a way of tying up Romney's resources, seeing as he has to win there.
 
Kaos said:
No in the grand scheme of things they wouldnt, but there's a still a substantial lefty base that have felt betrayed by Obama's stance on those policies. Its possible they would have flocked to Paul in a hypothetical election.
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The only "lefties" attracted to Ron Paul are the ones ignorant of what he actually stands for.
 
Ubik said:
The thing about Florida though is that it if Obama wins it, he's highly likely to have also won a bunch of other states like Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, meaning he's also highly likely to be over 270 before Florida even comes into it. It seems most useful as a way of tying up Romney's resources, seeing as he has to win there.
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If Virginia goes for Obama, he has won.
 
Likely yes, although it can potentially be the state that wins it for him, rather than just a vanity at the end (in contrast to Florida).
 
Is that the Gravis one?

If Gallup narrows at all today, Obama will lead the RCP average for the first time in a while (barring any other national polls coming out).
 
Drainy said:
I suspect the little detail that the NDAA allows the president to target US citizens with drones within the US wouldn't be quite so popular.
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I think you grossly under estimate the US publics support for pretty much all things military and national security related.
 
Excal said:
The only "lefties" attracted to Ron Paul are the ones ignorant of what he actually stands for.
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Yep, I agree. But there are just as many ignorant lefties as there are right-wing loons on the other side of the spectrum.
 
NPR ran another piece this morning on polls and voter enthusiasm. Not surprisingly the GOP base is a lot more enthused right now. When independents and swing voters were polled Romney has had a massive 17% increase amongst that group. Interestingly though 18% of people polled still say they could vote either way, which is way higher than at this time during past elections.
 
mjs020294 said:
I think you grossly under estimate the US publics support for pretty much all things military and national security related.
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I bloody hope not..

Surely the 'liberty' lobby on the Republican side would say 'would you really trust Obama or other Democrats with this?' and Liberals also shouldn't be so short sighted and know it could be misused..

Alarm bells should have been ringing in the minds of the electorate when Holder said 'due process is not necessarily judicial process'
 
Drainy said:
I bloody hope not..
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I absolutely guarantee it. Try living her for a few years, its an eye opener. There maybe a few in the media or the liberal lobby that would give it air time but the over whelming majority of the public simply do not care.
 
On the polls, I really can't see Romney winning Ohio which would make winning the election almost impossible. He will take Florida fairly comfortably IMO.
 
mjs020294 said:
I absolutely guarantee it. Try living her for a few years, its an eye opener. There maybe a few in the media or the liberal lobby that would give it air time but the over whelming majority of the public simply do not care.
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Well that is depressing.

'Do you think the President should have the right to bomb somebody's house on your street because they think they are linked to somebody you possibly once spoke with a suspected member of al qaeda?' 'sure'

grim
 
It depends on the final two debates. Three weeks ago, Obama was expected to carry the likes of Florida, Colorado, and Virginia.
 
The RAND tracking poll is quite an interesting one at the moment, it tightened up a lot after the first debate, but since the VP debate it's getting wider again. I don't for a second believe Obama's 4.5 points clear nationally at the moment, but the trend is something to keep an eye on.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election
 
Betfair is shortening Obama. Most of the £7M wagered is on his ass (another £500K over the weekend)
 
Some interesting polls today.

ARG says Romney *** in Virginia and Tie in Iowa.
Gravis saying Obama +2 in Colarado
 
Raoul said:
It depends on the final two debates. Three weeks ago, Obama was expected to carry the likes of Florida, Colorado, and Virginia.
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I don’t think the final two debates will have anywhere near the impact the first one did. Prior to the first debate Romney simply wasn’t considered a serious contender by many. His performance in that debate changed a lot of people’s perceptions. That will not be reversed so easily.

Obama just needs to turn up and stop Romney from shining again, that would be disastrous.
 
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