US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Jaz said:
A recent poll in NH put Romney ahead, NV within MOE, and no good polls in Iowa for a while.

Another poor performance in the debates by Obama would probably put these into play.
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that NH poll is what you call an outlier. There is no doubt Romney has closed. In fact I expected Romney to close...just not this fast. All Obama has to do is hold his own in the next debate...and he will. I will disagree about NV and IA. They wont switch.
 
Red Dreams said:
that NH poll is what you call an outlier. There is no doubt Romney has closed. In fact I expected Romney to close...just not this fast. All Obama has to do is hold his own in the next debate...and he will. I will disagree about NV and IA. They wont switch.
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Can't really call NH poll an outlier: Rasmussen has it as a Tie, and the UNH poll which showed Obama +6 was from September :eek: Another neglected state in terms of polling.

I doubt Nevada will switch, but Iowa, I think, is possible in terms of the demographics.
 
Watching Obama at the 2012 correspondents' dinner. Forgot how funny he can be, excellent comedic timing.

 
Thats a great comedy bit. I like the correspondent dinners.

"It's raining men..." :lol:
 
Jaz said:
Can't really call NH poll an outlier: Rasmussen has it as a Tie, and the UNH poll which showed Obama +6 was from September :eek: Another neglected state in terms of polling.

I doubt Nevada will switch, but Iowa, I think, is possible in terms of the demographics.
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Rasmussen was at Romney +3 near the peak of Obama's bounce, and the UNH poll of the days immediately preceding the +6 one was at +15 so it's taken a fair whack already. None of them seem particularly convincing though, could do with more done there as you say.

Iowa's another weird one that's swung towards Obama since his peak according to Rasmussen, although that's probably more an indictment of their polling than any use in reading the state.

As I type this:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Barack Obama was a lot stronger in our Saturday Ohio polling than Friday night. We'll have the final results soon
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Reassuring.

EDIT

And the results are very good, 51-46 (from 49-45 pre-debate), including 76-24 amongst the 19% that have already voted (Romney leads the yet to vote 51-45).
 
Both Obama and Carmona getting good numbers in Arizona. But there are a fair few undecideds.

Overall so far a good day for Obama.

Biden's performance did have a positive effect in Ohio it seems.

EDIT: Looked into the Arizona Polls. Its not really undecideds. Johnson is taking 3% of the votes and Stein is taking 1% of likely voters.

Hispanic and other minority voters are backing Democrats big.
 
A few scenarios that underscore how Romney still faces an uphill climb between now and election day.


1. Obama loses Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and New Hampshire (all of which he previously led until Romney's recent surge) but manages to retain Virginia. Under this scenario he gets reelected.
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2. Obama loses Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida (again, five states he led before Romney's surge), yet retains Ohio where he currently still leads. Under this scenario, he still get reelected despite squandering a lead in the aforementioned five important swing states.
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3. Obama loses Ohio, Florida, Virginia, but retains Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire, and gets reelected.
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The big problem for Romney is that if the election were held today, he would probably not have enough to win, and so he needs to retain his momentum for at least another week to tip polling sufficiently in his favor to where he would carry a state like Ohio. The flip side of that coin is that if he spends too much time in Ohio, Obama can reverse his gains in places like Virginia and Colorado. Can Romney run the table and win Florida, Virginia, and Ohio ? If he does, he still may not win if he can't hold on to Colorado.
 
Red Dreams said:
Its interesting that the Senate races are still trending Democrat.
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That's because Romney's recent improvement is solely a result of Obama's flat debate performance. If he has a better performance on Tuesday, he will almost certainly "reclaim" one of the swing states where Romney has made gain in the past two weeks (probably Virginia, Colorado, and Florida).
 
Raoul said:
That's because Romney's recent improvement is solely a result of Obama's flat debate performance. If he has a better performance on Tuesday, he will almost certainly "reclaim" one of the swing states where Romney has made gain in the past two weeks (probably Virginia, Colorado, and Florida).
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Obama just needs to hold his own in the next debate.
 
Someone earlier in this thread suggested debates don't matter. If Romney wins, it will almost surely be because of what happened in the first debate. The polls clearly moved following Obama's poor performance.
 
It wasn't so much Obama's poor performance, it was the fact Romney actually acquitted himself well. Prior to the debates Romney wasn't considered a viable alternative by many. I doubt many voters are thrilled about Romney but they just don't like the polices of the alternative.
 
mjs020294 said:
It wasn't so much Obama's poor performance, it was the fact Romney actually acquitted himself well. Prior to the debates Romney wasn't considered a viable alternative by many. I doubt many voters are thrilled about Romney but they just don't like the polices of the alternative.
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Its all about getting rid of Obama for Republican voters. The GOP base are actually willing to vote in a moderate to liberal Republican, in order to get rid of Obama.
 
mjs020294 said:
Its not just traditional GOP voters. A lot of the swing voters and independents don't like Obama's policies.
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That's normal in Presidential elections. What isn't is an entire political party voting to get rid of an incumbent as opposed to voting in their own candidate based on positive sentiment. Romney doesn't represent the GOP base, neither in the primaries nor now.
 
Obama has been spending a good bit of time in Ohio lately, mainly talking to massive crowds at Universities. Still, I doubt he's up by 5 - probably 2 or 3 at most.
 
Ramshock said:
Any chance you can take a break from this thread for a few days?
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Don't be such a cock FFS. Does it really hurt your sensitivities so much having any sort of debate or view that differs from yours? Pathetic.

Actually having reviewed your contributions to this thread maybe you should give it a break. You seem to breeze in make an immature snide remark and make no other contribution. Funny thing is half your snide remarks are aimed at me as if I am a Romney voter, which is way off base. :rolleyes:
 
mjs020294 said:
Don't be such a cock FFS. Does it really hurt your sensitivities so much having any sort of debate or view that differs from yours? Pathetic.

Actually having reviewed your contributions to this thread maybe you should give it a break. You seem to breeze in make an immature snide remark and make no other contribution. Funny thing is half your snide remarks are aimed at me as if I am a Romney voter, which is way off base. :rolleyes:
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:lol: No seriously you are on a wum theres no fecking way you vote democrat. Almost every post is pessimistic about Obama, his policies and the polls, its getting tired so give it a rest whatever it is you are doing for feck sake.
 
Well lets face it being upbeat about Obama is fairly difficult. Most of this board have been bashing the US and his polices for three years until the election when they are faced with a more right wing alternative. And quite honestly with 95% of the posters in this thread not being American their preference might not exactly be the best thing for the American public.

Obama-care is going to be a financial disaster, wrong plan at the wrong time. And that isn't because I am against government being involved in healthcare, quite the opposite actually. The economy is still piss poor and the debt is rising at ridiculous rate. That doesn't mean I don't like Obama, I do he is super cool and a half decent Statesman.

Not saying Romney would make much of a difference to anything, he wouldn't. This really is a choice between gonorrhea and syphilis. If the GOP had a candidate with half a personality the election would be a cake walk, which is sad considering the eight years that proceeded Obama.
 
He's intellectually honest, at least. But yeah, completely unelectable and a bit mad.
 
I honestly think Ron Paul would have been the GOP's best chance of toppling Obama. He's got a strong and consistent support base, his libertarianism is very popular amongst independents and furthermore, he'll probably nick quite a few democrat votes with his firm anti-war stance. Even the nutters at the Tea Party seem to like him (or his son at the very least).
 
A hell of a lot of Republicans would go over to the Dems. His domestic cuts would also turn off most moderates, I'd wager.
 
Its a toss up really as to whether the moderates he'll lose to domestic cuts would be more significant than the anti-war, pro-liberty crowd he'll pick up from the dems/indies.

I certainly think he would have been the candidate Obama would have least fancied going up against. Having to defend his stance on The Patriot Act, Gitmo and the drone attacks would have been awkward...especially in the ironic context of having to debate it with a Republican.
 
Ron Paul has absolutely no chance at winning a national or even statewide election and based on these recent comments I'm starting to think mjs has a point when he says that you guys don't understand because you aren't here.

I'd also be hard pressed to call an anti-abortion, anti separation of church and state, anti flag burning, anti-gay marriage, anti Lawrence v. Texas zealot a liberation.

I would vote for Romney, Bush or Cheney a million times over before I would ever vote for Ron Paul, despite sharing many more views with Paul. His foreign policy would be disastrous. Further, I think that in times of crisis, we need a grown up in the White House and Ron Paul is not that.

I'm truly amazed how many liberals seem to favor a guy with these policies.

  • Banning abortion
  • No gay rights
  • Demolishing the social safety net
  • Getting rid of Obamacare
  • No financial regulation
  • No foreign aid
  • No Social Security
  • The right to own automatic weapons
  • No affirmative action
  • Says DADT is a decent policy
  • Says climate change is not a problem
  • Ending public education
  • Instituting a flat tax
  • No government research
  • No emergency medical care without insurance
  • No FDA
  • Opposes the Voting Rights Act
  • Opposes the Civil Rights Act
  • Withdrawing from the UN and NATO
  • Eliminating FEMA
  • No EPA
  • No national parks


The man is a raving lunatic.
 
He also wants to return to the gold standard.

And yes, he is a loon. The only reason he has a cult following is because of his foreign policy. People hear "no war!" and go nuts.
 
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