US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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niMic said:
Global warming, gay marriage, immigration, abortion, gays in the military. He's really going over everything. People say there's almost no difference between the parties, and nothing changes anyway. How the feck can they say that, in the face of all that? It's not even just talk, these are things that would be vastly different if the Republicans were in charge.

I'm all for political cynicism, but you can take it too far.
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I know I've certainly felt at times that the democrats don't go far enough and that I can't support them for some of their choices in the last 12 years.
 
Thought I would bump this as it got drown out in talk about the convention.

The number of electoral votes predicted for Mitt, that I managed to block out, is 226.8.

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Nate Silver made a great post today. All the Democrats need to do to win this election is energise their base. 35% of registered voters identify themselves as Democrats Vs. 30% as Republicans. That's a huge advantage.

Despite all the current cynicism, I think Obama and Co. are still capable to making that happen. Combined with soaring rhetoric, some (validish) fearmongering about what a Republican win could do to Social security, Medicare etc. would turn a lot of registered voters into likely. That would be enough for an easyish win.
 
It's been suggested that that's the result of Silver overestimating the National Convention bump in his formula. Of course, comparing the two Conventions it could be interesting to see if it would actually be overestimated for the Democratic one. I'm no American, and obviously I'm far, far on the side of Obama versus Romney, but it seems the Democrats were orders of magnitude ahead of the Republicans this time. Clinton and Obama vs Eastwood.
 
He will nail Romney in the debates. Romney didn't even do well against the imbeciles in the Republican debates.
 
niMic said:
It's been suggested that that's the result of Silver overestimating the National Convention bump in his formula. Of course, comparing the two Conventions it could be interesting to see if it would actually be overestimated for the Democratic one. I'm no American, and obviously I'm far, far on the side of Obama versus Romney, but it seems the Democrats were orders of magnitude ahead of the Republicans this time. Clinton and Obama vs Eastwood.
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You just have to compare the Nowcast with the Nov 6 cast to see the bounce he's building in - 2.4% as of now. That's huge. It's tough to feel confident about making just a big adjustment. What makes me feel a little comfortable though is that even a week after the Republican convention with none of the bounce factored, Obama still has a two state cushion.
 
mjs020294 said:
I doubt he will get NC. I think Florida and Ohio are on the line as well.
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Not after tonight they won't be. And besides, Obama could easily win by over 100 electoral votes despite only leading by one or two points in the polls. Romney is going backwards and time is running out.
 
The difference is there for all to see after the two conventions. While Obama has a solid state of beliefs, Romney is just a candidate who will say anything to win.

There's no way Romney will beat Obama. He has far too much substance to lose out.
 
Raoul said:
Not after tonight they won't be. A.
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Do you even follow the Nileson viewing numbers on these things?

Romney is very close in the polls, the Florida numbers you quoted earlier weer from 22-26 August.
 
Ole's_toe_poke said:
The difference is there for all to see after the two conventions. While Obama has a solid state of beliefs, Romney is just a candidate who will say anything to win.

There's no way Romney will beat Obama. He has far too much substance to lose out.
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Obama does that too..
especially with all the religion/faith stuff, when it's quite obvious he's anything but a believer if you go by his writings/speeches before he became Prez..
 
mjs020294 said:
Do you even follow the Nileson viewing numbers on these things?

Romney is very close in the polls, the Florida numbers you quoted earlier weer from 22-26 August.
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Yes I know the polling was a couple of weeks old and don't factor the calamatous Republican convention (Hurricane delays, Clint Eastwood etc) and a successful Democratic one, not to mention the fact that Obama has a massive advantage in the debates, which should open up an even bigger lead. It also doesn't factor in that Romney has to effectively run the table in the swing states, whereas Obama only has to win a couple.
 
Raoul said:
Yes I know the polling was a couple of weeks old and don't factor the calamatous Republican convention (Hurricane delays, Clint Eastwood etc) and a successful Democratic one, not to mention the fact that Obama has a massive advantage in the debates, which should open up an even bigger lead. It also doesn't factor in that Romney has to effectively run the table in the swing states, whereas Obama only has to win a couple.
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The conferences will not change much. In recent years they have hardly touched the polls. The viewing numbers have been very low for this year conferences. Even during peak viewing hours there are only 20 million watching.
 
mjs020294 said:
The conferences will not change much. In recent years they have hardly touched the polls. The viewing numbers have been very low for this year conferences. Even during peak viewing hours there are only 20 million watching.
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The conferences set the narrative for the remainder of the campaign. George Bush in 88 managed to blow the race open after his convention, same with Clinton in 96. The discussions that happen during and after conventions set the tone going forward. The GOP had a shit convention and the Dems had their best in years.
 
Off topic, but Dawkins will be on Skavlan tomorrow by the way, if any Noggies are interested.
 
This convention wasn't to get new votes, it was to energize the base. It succeeded. I don't think you can say the same for Romney. I bet there is a surge in donations over the next few days to Obama.

Now lets see what tomorrows jobs report says. The Dow closed at a big high today.
 
Raoul said:
The discussions that happen during and after conventions set the tone going forward. The GOP had a shit convention and the Dems had their best in years.
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I think your assessment is a little biased. The GOP had a decent conference and started humanizing Romney and attacking Obama where it hurts. The DNC was much more entertaining and they certainly did better.

Watch CNN now, they have a focus group of 26 undecideds.
 
Its the energized bases that will decide the election. Romney hasn't managed to humanize himself and certainly didn't do anything to energize conservatives (of which he clearly isn't one). Obama did quite the opposite. He did the same thing tonight as he did in 08 and it translated into a landslide.
 
And Obama's speech has had zero impact on the undecided voters in the CNN focus group. The general feeling was we have heard this before and you didn't deliver.
 
mjs020294 said:
And Obama's speech has had zero impact on the undecided voters in the CNN focus group. The general feeling was we have heard this before and you didn't deliver.
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Three tired people isn't going tell you much about the broader race. Obama nailed his speech, Clinton, Biden, and Michelle Obama had excellent speeches as well. Listen to John King on CNN now - its almost impossible for Romney to win if Obama wins Michigan and Ohio.
 
Now that's how you do a convention!

And a "friend" deleted me from FB after I retorted to her hatred post about Pres. Obama and then lashed at me in an email. According to her, I'm a negative person because I'm liberal, atheist, and start debates/fights. Love it. Just love it. This is the same woman that was showing off her crotch to a few of us one night out drinking while her husband was deployed.
 
mjs020294 said:
I think your assessment is a little biased. The GOP had a decent conference and started humanizing Romney and attacking Obama where it hurts. The DNC was much more entertaining and they certainly did better.

Watch CNN now, they have a focus group of 26 undecideds.
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The conventions are not for undecideds, the debates are. Nobody but the base and political junkies watch conventions on TV.
 
Missed the speech, reaction generally seems to be more negative than those in here.
 
Raoul said:
Three tired people isn't going tell you much about the broader race. Obama nailed his speech, .
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it tells you a hell of a lot more than listening to fan boys that stroke themselves watching the DNC. They had 26 undecided independents using tracking equipment throughout his speech. He had practically zero impact on them, in fact it was more negative than positive.

Raoul said:
Listen to John King on CNN now - its almost impossible for Romney to win if Obama wins Michigan and Ohio.
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There is 0.6% between them in Ohio and Florida. Romney's cash advantage could be enough to swing those States. Florida is the key State: there isn't a single model that has Romney losing Florida and winning the election.
 
mjs020294 said:
it tells you a hell of a lot more than listening to fan boys that stroke themselves watching the DNC. They had 26 undecided independents using tracking equipment throughout his speech. He had practically zero impact on them, in fact it was more negative than positive.



There is 0.6% between them in Ohio and Florida. Romney's cash advantage could be enough to swing those States. Florida is the key State: there isn't a single model that has Romney losing Florida and winning the election.
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Both states have nearly consistently had Obama in front, and that's likely to remain the same after the conventions.
 
Raoul said:
Both states have nearly consistently had Obama in front, and that's likely to remain the same after the conventions.
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The only polls in both States since the RNC have Romney up (1% Florida, 3% Ohio). The debates are vital now: Obama needs a win and Romney just needs to hold his own. If Romney can hold his own in the debates his huge cash advantage might be enough to swing the close States.
 
mjs020294 said:
The only polls in both States since the RNC have Romney up (1% Florida, 3% Ohio). The debates are vital now: Obama needs a win and Romney just needs to hold his own. If Romney can hold his own in the debates his huge cash advantage might be enough to swing the close States.
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That's because they reflect a slight bounce for Romney without factoring the Dems' undoing of that bounce over the past three days. The only legitimate polls today are those taken before the conventions and those that will come out in a few days that incorporate both bounces.
 
Romney is quite a shit debater and is likely to get hammered by Obama, who actually punches well above his weight in them.

From 2 minutes on....

 
Romney's weakness when debating is that he comes across as nasty and is prone to gaffes when he responds to a pointed attack. Obama will go for him knowing this. He'll get pounded on Romneycare and his crap foreign policy credentials as well as all the Bain stuff. It'll be a bruising encounter.

Biden will just make Ryan look like an amateur.
 
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