I expect Florida to go Romney based on the adverts and mood of people I interact with.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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I expect Florida to go Romney based on the adverts and mood of people I interact with.
Nothing has really changed in the last month.
There is virtually no chance of Romney winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia. Though the polling in Wisconsin has been terrible. I suppose for Romney corner that he's pretty much solidified Missouri and Arizona, Indiana. So at least he won't do as badly as McCain.
Still think Romney has a strong chance of winning north Carolina, and could win Florida. But it's not going to be enough. Mainly because there is no hope for Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa.
I disagree there. If you look at the trends the gap has narrowed signifciantly in the last month. The various polls show Mitt's lower number is up 2-3% and Obama's is down a couple of points. It wasn't even close a month ago but now its pretty tight.
It's tightened, but the recent polls also reflect some of the GOP convention bounce. It's a lot smaller these days, but it reflects the tightening. We need to wait it out for another 2/3 weeks.
Interestingly, we need to really examine the undecided figures in each of the battleground states. And historically, do they move for the incumbent or not in those states?
it will be ground game and turn outs.
lots of work to be done.
On the ads front Rahm Emmanuel is now working for the Super Pac and just getting the funds needed apparently.
lots of work to be done.
On the ads front Rahm Emmanuel is now working for the Super Pac and just getting the funds needed apparently.
For anyone that doubts I play devils advocate please check this thread, which i am posting in simultaneously.
http://www.pewterreport.com/Boards/index.php/topic,1297541.180.html
Why are you doing this? Do you not know how weird it is?
It's looking like the margins are going to be really thin. It's going to come down to 100 to 200k votes in Ohio, Florida and Virginia isn't it?
I'm inclined to think Florida's going Romney. The weighted poll of polls on 538 shows it currently leaning Romney (RCP doesn't weight for pollster house lean) and with the kind of money that the Republicans are going to throw at it as well as a Republican Governor if it comes down to stuff like hanging chads, I don't see it swinging back. Only possibility is that with the Republican convention there, there's been a bounce...not really borne out by polling data though.
Ohio seems relatively secure at this point (though we'll have to wait another week to know - Gravis Marketing latest poll has a 4 point swing to Romney) and Virginia's the Obama firewall (even Rasmussen's only calling it a tie and they have a pronounced Republican bias).
I'm inclined to think Florida's going Romney. The weighted poll of polls on 538 shows it currently leaning Romney (RCP doesn't weight for pollster house lean) and with the kind of money that the Republicans are going to throw at it as well as a Republican Governor if it comes down to stuff like hanging chads, I don't see it swinging back. Only possibility is that with the Republican convention there, there's been a bounce...not really borne out by polling data though.
Ohio seems relatively secure at this point (though we'll have to wait another week to know - Gravis Marketing latest poll has a 4 point swing to Romney) and Virginia's the Obama firewall (even Rasmussen's only calling it a tie and they have a pronounced Republican bias).
If Romney wins I will lose all hope in America.
I feel George Bush put it nicely
Fool me once, shame on you
Fool me twice, shame on you
I feel George Bush put it nicely
Fool me once, shame on you
Fool me twice, shame on you
There's a massive disconnect between that mjs and our mjs. I was only half-joking earlier when I said it almost made it pointless to debate with him. It sort of does. I was never partial to the idea of playing devils advocate, it's entirely meaningless.
Agree with Ohio.
I'm really surprised at how close the polls have become in iowa and virginia and florida too. But these are all due to Rasmussen (seems to small bias GOP) and Purple and Gravis. North Carolina is definitely leaning Romney with PPP(D) even giving him a small lead.
It's a bit boring, tbh. You can come up with arguments for the other side of nearly anything. Having a contrary opinion and arguing it is fine, but just taking up that opinion because it's in the minority in a given forum is a bit adolescent. More to the point, mjs, why should we bother arguing with you at all now, given it's as likely you're just arguing to argue rather than actually advocating your personal beliefs?
will the real mjs or the real Romney for that matter stand up..... 
I don't think he's arguing for the sake of argument, rather just posting the more problematic stuff for Obama (which he may believe is true) since otherwise it might not get posted here. People were calling him a closet republican not too long ago, remember.
His speech from last night...or well, at least what the tea baggers heard..
http://www.theonion.com/articles/ob...g&utm_campaign=standard-post:headline:default
http://www.theonion.com/articles/ob...g&utm_campaign=standard-post:headline:default
oh dear...
in any discussion, say what you think.
Nothing weird really, its more to do with the position if the political center on both sides of the pond. I am an Obama supporter andhgave been fairly consistent about that on here. Difference is the majority are way to the right of me on the other forum.
Well, if nothing else this is a great example of just how big a gap there is between American and European politics.
So now the Reps think Obama's an adulterer...
Been telling the Caf that for a longtime. The US center is right of the Tories.
He's a politician in Washington, D.C. That pretty well goes without saying.
Actually I have just thought of another reason. On the other forum there are far more people directly impacted by American politics, and a lot of them are very right wing. I get a bizare kick out of pushing their buttons. So much so I proabbly shift to the left a little to nark them off a bit more.
Funny thing is I have met quite a few of them in person and they are pretty decent people really. Just sad and under the influence of the Church, Fox News and the Tea Party.
WUM status: confirmed.
Surely everybody with a passing interest in politics knows that?
I like how he just thought of another reason he does something. Cuz that's usually the order that goes in.
It is. What's more, that's not actually a former Obama supporter, it's a Romney staffer.
Well, they needed it to be a Latina who supports Romney, and the other one couldn't make the shooting date.
What a weirdo.
As if that was necessary! He wums the current events like Pete wums the football forums, i.e. always.
^ 96% Jill Stein. Obama wasnt even my top 3.
96% Jill Stein
85% Barack Obama
83% Rocky Anderson (who?)
7% Mitt Romney
94% Green Party
94% Democrats
23% Libertarian
5% Republican
Apparently I side the most with Gary Johnson on foreign policy
Whats wrong with Gary Johnson's foreign policy? He probably holds the most sensible views amongst all the presidential candidates.
92% Jill Stein
85% Barack Obama
80% Rocky Anderson
3% Mitt Romney ()
92% Democrat
84% Green
12% Libertarian
2% Republican
Presumably means I'm something of a leftie.
85% Barack Obama
80% Rocky Anderson
3% Mitt Romney (
)92% Democrat
84% Green
12% Libertarian
2% Republican
Presumably means I'm something of a leftie.
96% Jill Stein
85% Barack Obama
78% Gary Johnson
16% Mitt Romney
97% Green
97% Democratic
58% Libertarian
10% Republican
85% Barack Obama
78% Gary Johnson
16% Mitt Romney
97% Green
97% Democratic
58% Libertarian
10% Republican
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