Yeah that's how I read it as well. Obama's cool style makes his debating opponents come off as a bit desperate. Biden was also surprisingly good against Palin.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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Yeah that's how I read it as well. Obama's cool style makes his debating opponents come off as a bit desperate. Biden was also surprisingly good against Palin.
For anyone that doubts I play devils advocate please check this thread, which i am posting in simultaneously.
http://www.pewterreport.com/Boards/index.php/topic,1297541.180.html
I love the guy who compared the very complex workings of Keynesian economics with him and his wife paying off their credit card debt.
mjs, I'll have to say though, looking at your posts in that forum might make it pointless to debate with you in here about anything. One can just assume that you're playing devil's advocate, which makes the whole debate a little bit pointless.
he is actually a Brit. Married to a yank but he is totally Americanized now, even part of the god squad.
Someone has to present a counter argument. I tend to stay very close to the center. The big difference is on this forum the consensus is way left and on that forum its way right.
For anyone that doubts I play devils advocate please check this thread, which i am posting in simultaneously.
http://www.pewterreport.com/Boards/index.php/topic,1297541.180.html
You WUM
Someone has to present a counter argument. I tend to stay very close to the center. The big difference is on this forum the consensus is way left and on that forum its way right.
Two connections between the forums. You and the Glazers. So which one are you? Kevin? Darcie?
Wouldn't mind their money...and owning united of course.
yes but who am I winding up.....the Caf or PR.
You're just an attention seeking, contrarian, shit-stirrer. The kind of guy who models his guns online via crude cell phone pics in order to draw attention to himself, only to realize he's gone overboard and quickly delete his posts (which all mods and admins can still see btw).
You're just an attention seeking, contrarian, shit-stirrer. The kind of guy who models his guns online via crude cell phone pics in order to draw attention to himself, only to realize he's gone overboard and quickly delete his posts (which all mods and admins can still see btw).
And can the mods repost such a picture for the enjoyment of the rest of the caf?
You're just an attention seeking, contrarian, shit-stirrer. The kind of guy who models his guns online via crude cell phone pics in order to draw attention to himself, only to realize he's gone overboard and quickly delete his posts (which all mods and admins can still see btw).
I think both forums have a desperate need for contrarians actually. This place is akin to a socialist workers gathering at times, and the other place is a like a Tea Party gathering.
BTW - the gun picture was a valid response to ignorant posts by other users. It was deleted when the person that made the comments had seen it.
If I may interrupt for just one second.
Is this for real? If so, he is one snazzy prezzy.
Is this for real? If so, he is one snazzy prezzy.
Yes Art, it's real. He followed that up saying "I'm BOARD of wars" before smacking the re-animated corpse of Hitler with the skateboard which had rebounded off the wall into his hands.
Hmm, good speech, but didn't deliver any serious punches. He did however, sound like a President, whereas Romney didn't.
What was it like? The consensus among pundits seems to be that it was pretty lacklustre.
If they lose there will be a bitter and bloody battle for the soul of the party. But the Tea Party is in such a position of power now I find it hard to see them losing it in one cycle.
If they win I can't see it being anything other than an extreme right administration. For one thing, the President doesn't actually have that much power. Secondly, who knows whether Romney is a moderate or not? - he was a moderate when he had to be in Massachussets, but what is Romney 'really'? I don't doubt he doesn't give a shit about the culture wars, but I also don't think he cares about the human cost of, say, bombing Iran. Anyway the price of his nomination was tying himself to the Ryan budget, repeal of his own health plan, and sundry other nutty positions.
Only 96000 new jobs added in August, well down on the predicted 120000. Unemployment is down to 8.1% from 8.3%, so that's a bit of good news.
But any afterglow from the conventions will have been just about wiped about by these weak figures.
But any afterglow from the conventions will have been just about wiped about by these weak figures.
It was ok, didn't exactly hit any crescendo though which was unexpected but he nailed lots of talking points.
It was quite interesting to see him flip the problems onto the American people by telling them they are going to have it tough (and in fact tougher, which seemed a poor choice of words) and will have to be the ones to orchestrate change for him. Not sure how well that will play out and I'm not convinced he was able to fully communicate the point during the speech in a way that was inspirational or massaged the american patriotic ego.
In all it was a speech which was able to talk about the positive aspects of the Obama administration and his future intentions while taking a few digs at the opposition, but never really got going with the delivery and failed to deliver any real big blows or wins. So yeah pretty lacklustre I suppose.
The GOP needs a bloody battle. They need realise and come to terms with their demographic changes (fewer blue collar workers, more latinos and african americans). The Tea party is irrelevant, it's just as irrelevant as UKIPers are to the Conservatives in the UK. Ultimately they will all vote for GOP and Conservatives, except for a very small and extreme group which probably wouldn't make a huge difference.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Obama up to 313. Must wait to see what the convention bounce if any will be .
Obama up to 313. Must wait to see what the convention bounce if any will be .
Those really aren't good numbers...2011 there was an average of 150,000 new jobs a month. I know the democrats will point out, the republicans don't allow new legislation to come in, and that's slowed things down...but people remember numbers and figures, not cause & effect.
Not to mention, numbers and figures are easy to manipulate, I don't see a positive spin to these figures, and I think you'll see Wall St bear that out. Lot of positivity at COB yesterday...good news on the european front, and they expected good news at home.
I thought it was a great speech personally. Seemed genuine.
I don't know if it was a great speech, but I think it closed out the narrative they set out right from the start of the convention really well.
Clinton building things up in his swashbuckling style, throwing punches left and right....Biden going into semi attack dog mode, but also holding back at times, and raising the tone of the conversation(war wounded etc) and then Obama tying things up nicely.
He couldn't give another speech about grandeur(even perceived grandeur) - so he spoke about the hard road ahead...the harsh reality, but then ended with positivity and conviction.
in the end growth is growth.
sure whatever number came out the GOP will bash it though. So they will both spin this their way.
The unemployed numbers actually went down because a lot of longterm unemployed simply dropped off the register according to NPR.
I actually feel a little deflated by Obama's speech. Sure I agree with all his ideals and the guy is super cool but he didn't really say anything new. Yesterday morning I was still pumped by Clinton's speech.
I actually feel a little deflated by Obama's speech. Sure I agree with all his ideals and the guy is super cool but he didn't really say anything new. Yesterday morning I was still pumped by Clinton's speech.
A few months back I said that come this election day I felt that I would be able to go to sleep very soundly before the results came in knowing that Obama would be re-elected. Some people thought I was putting too much faith in an Obama re-election, what do you say now? Starting to feel more comfortable (or if you don't want him to win, less comfortable) with the idea that he is going to win this election?
Now that the conventions are over, Obama looks to have the advantage. He's up in every swing state except North Carolina and Romney would have to win at least half of those (the big ones of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia - as well as hold on to NC) in order to win the election. All of that, with the debates coming up where Romney has consistently underperformed and Obama has punched well above his weight. It would take a small miracle for Romney to win in November.
Clinton's speech was the best of the 3 days no doubt. Thought the President explained what he did do and was trying to do...and simply that he needed the second term to finish the job. Thought his saying the people were his inspiration and strength to do his job was effective. In the end it is turnout. Thus his request for their vote.
In all fairness 313 is a slim margin with two monthe to go and Romneys cash advantage. There are three key States where the lead is around 0.5%: if the Romeny camp turn those around he wins.
This really isn't a done deal - I want Obama to win...didn't vote for him the last time, but he is a zillion times better than Romney and now his partner in crime Ryan.
But I honestly don't think this is as clear cut as some are making it out to be. It's not like Obama is ahead by 10 points in crucial swing states...most of them are definitely still in play for both candidates
Romney has pulled out of MI and PA. No way is he winning Wisconsin and Virginia.
Florida is his best bet. That would still leave him well short. I also think Ohio is a big reach.
On election night, I will look for Virginia's result. If it goes for the President...game over imo.
Florida is his best bet. That would still leave him well short. I also think Ohio is a big reach.
On election night, I will look for Virginia's result. If it goes for the President...game over imo.
Romney is behind but its far from over. His adverts are have an impact down here, and the voter enthusiasm is 10 points higher for the GOP. His massive cash advantage and the economy could still cause Obama a few problems.
oh I agree about 313 being a small margin.
But Nate has been pretty pragmatic with his models.
Last cycle Obama came in much stronger than forecast.
Florida is far from being a done deal for Obama of course.
Expect them both to be there every so often.
You can't compared 2008 to this time around. He was young and offering Hope and Change on teh back of eight years of GW Bush and a serious recession. There was also a lot of enthusiasm amongst mainly people because he was teh first none white male with a real shot.
The Democratic base needs to campaign hard to keep the enthusiasm up.
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