State poll data is useful but very noisy. With Mr. Obama’s running for re-election, and Mr. Romney’s being a fairly orthodox Republican candidate, the swing states this year are very likely to be about the same as the swing states in 2008.
Because of the importance of the Electoral College, of course, it will be worth tracking to see whether there are any shifts. Can Mr. Obama put Arizona in play without Senator John McCain on the ballot? Can Mr. Romney turn New Hampshire from a blue-leaning state into a red-leaning one?
But we’re getting, at best, one poll every two or three weeks in major swing states now, and some important states have hardly been polled at all. Most of this speculation, therefore, is premature.
I do hope that by the time we release our forecasts in a few weeks, the volume of state polling will increase at least somewhat, but it will probably be until at least the late summer until the data is robust enough to allow for deeply meaningful conclusions about whether one of the candidates has a systemic advantage in the Electoral College. Keep in mind that a candidate who carries the national popular vote by more than about three percentage points is all but certain mathematically to also win the Electoral College.
but their policies.