US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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So basically, you're like the GOP in that you're actually in favor of voter ID laws BECAUSE it's going to stop people who "can't be bothered to ensure", (or as the GOP would put it "the wrong people") from voting.

You just don't have to bother pretending it's to prevent all the nonexistent fraud out there.
 
I couldn't care less either way but if the law of the State requires IDs there is no good reason anyone would be prevented from voting. You have to provide the IDs to register in the first place.

I actually doubt either part would have a significant advantage from ID laws. There are millions of redneck Americans that vote GOP that probably don't have IDs. The very poorest in society certainly pluck IDs and paperwork out of their asses when they claim for social and medicare.
 
So you're in favor of state governments spending additional monies to enforce laws that you're convinced won't benefit either party (among the organizations that disagree are the American Civil Liberties Union, the League of Women Voters, the Democratic Party, and privately, the Republican Party,) that prevent a crime no one is committing.
 
I see Obama had a massive rally at Ohio State. Clearly taking Ohio is going to be a big priority given that one generally doesn't become President without winning it. I'd imagine most of Obama's votes would be in Columbus and Cleveland.
 
Ohio's still an important swing state, but I don't think it's THE swing state anymore, given Obama's inroads into the south and the west. I can't see Obama losing either Pennsylvania or Virginia, so at that point he's got a few routes to 270. Ohio is one, and probably the most likely, but North Carolina or winning Colorado and Nevada again would also do the trick.
 
The PPP and WaPo polls in Virginia over the last week had Obama +8 and +7, respectively. The Rasmussen poll before that had Romney minus-1, which means Obama probably is about 7-8 points ahead.
 
Watched most of his speech yesterday, he's got a more aggressive tone this time round, probably understandable when he's having to defend from the Repubs attacks. Debates should be fun.
 
Might've done it at the beginning which I missed, or extremely subtly whilst I was watching because I didn't notice it (there were chants of "four more years" in the same style as "yes we can" from the crowd though). He did reference the last campaign briefly with stuff about "hope and change", otherwise it was all about going "forward".
 
Red Dreams said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Obama on 253 Electoral votes per the latest polls.
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Looking at those past elections it crazy when you look at Nixon v McGovern and Reagan v Carter. And even Clinton years was pretty amazing when you look at some of the states he took.

As I think there is much less excitement for Obama this year he'll still win easily. The repubs fielded such a weak bunch. And this country for some reason just will not look for anything outside of the 2 main parties. I wish we could get 4 or 5 in the mix each time around.
 
Plechazunga said:
I still can't understand why you guys are so complacent. If the economy stays mediocre it's clearly going to be close. If the jokers here in Europe succeed in tanking it, Obama's in trouble.
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I agree, whilst the US economy remains lackluster with twenty million unemployed and his job approval remains less than fifty percent the Democrats cannot be under any illusions of security.
 
I think the election will be less about a mandate on all things Obama and as much a factor of are the Repubs offering anything at all in terms of a leader that people will feel better about having in office?

I think we will see the normal election cycle movement in the polls, around each of the conventions the candidate will get a bit of bounce in the polls. But Obama might see his approval rating go up as people start comparing him to Romney.

I think it would take a major disaster in the economy for Obama to lose the election.
 
Cali Red said:
Looking at those past elections it crazy when you look at Nixon v McGovern and Reagan v Carter. And even Clinton years was pretty amazing when you look at some of the states he took.

As I think there is much less excitement for Obama this year he'll still win easily. The repubs fielded such a weak bunch. And this country for some reason just will not look for anything outside of the 2 main parties. I wish we could get 4 or 5 in the mix each time around.
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things can change...the election is still 6 months away. but Romney is a very poor candidate.

the demographics of the States are changing so fast too. Who would have said North Carolina and Virginia were swing states 10 years ago?
 
Red Dreams said:
the demographics of the States are changing so fast too. Who would have said North Carolina and Virginia were swing states 10 years ago?
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At the rate we're going Texas will be one in a couple of electoral cycles also.
 
It will be interesting to see where the Republican Party goes in the future. Obviously it's completely untenable to keep up what they are doing now with the direction of the US demographics.
 
Jonathan Chait had an article recently claiming that this is making the GOP even more desperate than usual to win back power. It's their last chance to 'stop history' and reset the country's values once and for all.

Glenn Greenwald dismissed this as wishful thinking, pointing out that Republicans like Rove recently thought the same generational majority was coming to the GOP.
 
With a fast-growing Latino population, if the GOP keeps pandering to the far right's nativist racism, I wouldn't be surprised if Texas does start to slowly creep away from them.
 
It is a great opportunity for the moderates in the Republican party to move to the middle and take back their party.

I believe after this election the moderates will work with Obama. They will have a reduced majority in the House and while still just being the minority in the Senate, they can contribute to an honest discussion.


I hope so anyway.
 
Plechazunga said:
Jonathan Chait had an article recently claiming that this is making the GOP even more desperate than usual to win back power. It's their last chance to 'stop history' and reset the country's values once and for all.

Glenn Greenwald dismissed this as wishful thinking, pointing out that Republicans like Rove recently thought the same generational majority was coming to the GOP.
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Greenwald is talking tactics. He is correct that 'new' ideas will help get votes. But Chait is also correct...and this is about the long term effect of GOP current tactics.

As Romney is finding out...you cannot walk back everything you say.

The GOP is stuck. The only way they can revamp themselves is by getting rid of the hard righties. But the decision is already out of their hands I believe.
 
Well watching Obama's official campaign kick off it seems we can expect him to use the word FORWARD a dozen or so times every speech. Not a bad campaign focus word for him though. Just as Hope and Change worked well for him last time around, I think this focus on the world forward will a good start for building his campaign messages from.
 
I must say I loathe the GOP more than usual today. I'm doing a research paper on republicanism and the nation state in the 18th and 19th century and keep getting hits on the likes of Santorum, Romney, and Gingrich. :annoyed:
 
Kos52-teaser.jpg
 
Excal - that cartoon is just perfect. As usual, everyone is all hung up on the little issue, while the bigger and more significant problem is simply being ignored. Actually not ignored, laws are being enacted to ensure it becomes even less transparent.

haha.... :(
 
Grinner said:
Stay classy North Carolina.
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Not even close, 61-39. Problem with these issues is, the anti gay vote is always more vocal, more impassioned. The 'pro-gay' vote, too many people are....

"I don't care if gays get married, but I'm not lining up to fecking vote on it"
 
I find it really bizarre that Obama is leading in Virginia and North Carolina. The demographics in those states must have really changed over the past 4-8 years. True, he won both in 08, but they're also both traditionally red states with strong tea party elements. If this is a turning into a permanent trend where the GOP are going to start losing both states in Presidential elections, their hope of regaining the Presidency is going to be almost non-existent.
 
Raoul said:
It will be interesting to see the future unfold. I have seen a couple of occasions when it seemed that one party was set to dominate the White House for a long stretch, only to see the economy or world events put the voters in the mood for a bit of change.

Of course the Repubs have their work cut out for them trying to find their way back to some ground closer to the middle to be able to take advantage.
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JustAFan said:
Raoul said:
It will be interesting to see the future unfold. I have seen a couple of occasions when it seemed that one party was set to dominate the White House for a long stretch, only to see the economy or world events put the voters in the mood for a bit of change.

Of course the Repubs have their work cut out for them trying to find their way back to some ground closer to the middle to be able to take advantage.
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Yeah. Obama's biggest danger at this point is Europe imploding and reversing the US recovery. The GOP are almost certainly going to reclaim the Senate so its imperative for the Dems to retain the White House.
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